Mini Normal 2045: Boba Tea Mafia [Game Over]

[LolWagons]

Okay guys, sorry. Final thoughts.

It is redundant and possibly more dangerous to lynch outside the claims:

We risk outing another PR. And if we go after someone like springtrap or malakitty, we might night even get a claim due to their lack of activity. The more we switch the lynches the more we out PRs. Right now, we probably have only outted 1.

Setup spec-why it is better to lynch a claimed JK than vig:

The JK will never be verifiable. We can verify the vig. If BEF is the mafia jailkeeper like I think he might be now, we have the potential to shoot a lurker or someone who might look scummy if BEF flips. And with the JK out of the way, we would probably hit the target. I know we can WIFOM about the claims and what scum is more likely to claim, but at the end of the day we have a chance to verify with the Vig still alive, assuming they arent the nightkill.

BEF's late game play has been way more scummy than DDL's:

I don't see avoiding questions and then taunting the person who asks them as something town would do. Not only that, but I had to pull that answer out of him and it wasn't even good. There was no rebuttal to my answer. I know he is mislynch bait, I have checked his past games, but even though he posted less in those I really felt like he directly engaged other players more. DDL on the other hand was still at least making reads and has been way more cooperative. As I mentioned earlier, for someone who hates inactivity BEF sure did disappear at the right time.

The wagon speeds:

I know this is a bit apples to oranges, but holy shit that DL wagon took off so quickly. I know we are under time constraints but that was effortless compared to the BEF wagon. We have been struggling to get a consensus on him forever. The reason the comparison is a bit apples to oranges is because now we are near deadline so wagons are going to pick up faster, but still...damn. Never seen one go that fast.

The rest of BEF's play has still been scummy

This one speaks for itself, as I have made the case for him time and time again, but he has used inactivity as a crutch of his arguments, pulled really easily verifiable faulty meta on me, walked back some of his case but kept his vote parked on me, hasn't engaged many players, and has been on three opportune wagons without ever really driving them or trying to actually ascertain the wagonee's alignment.


You're never 100% confident here, but if scum flips 25% on day one on average, I think BEF flips scum like 60% of the time here. This isn't bad play, it is mafia play. The right play for town is to lynch within claims and my pick for that is BEF.

[Ruby Red]

The JK will never be verifiable. We can verify the vig. If BEF is the mafia jailkeeper like I think he might be now, we have the potential to shoot a lurker or someone who might look scummy if BEF flips. And with the JK out of the way, we would probably hit the target. I know we can WIFOM about the claims and what scum is more likely to claim, but at the end of the day we have a chance to verify with the Vig still alive, assuming they arent the nightkill.

this is circular logic

[LolWagons]

The JK will never be verifiable. We can verify the vig. If BEF is the mafia jailkeeper like I think he might be now, we have the potential to shoot a lurker or someone who might look scummy if BEF flips. And with the JK out of the way, we would probably hit the target. I know we can WIFOM about the claims and what scum is more likely to claim, but at the end of the day we have a chance to verify with the Vig still alive, assuming they arent the nightkill.

this is circular logic

Which why it went under "Setup Spec"

It's not exactly circular logic, but it is WIFOM, and I get that, and there is some logic behind it. Still, what do you think of the other points?

[Ruby Red]

essentially two of your points are "BEF is scummy" and like... yeah. but like that's not exclusive to him as scum from pretty much every single game that i've seen him in.

as for wagon speeds i just dont think its all that meaningful

[Ruby Red]

idk man

i like strongly believe that a DDL scumlynch locks this game down and if it doesn't happen today then i don't see it happening for at least another few days (during which there is a serious chance i die)

if i'm going to get N1-ed or N2-ed then i would want this to be what i got through before my death

[Ruby Red]

BEF is LHF that can get lynched any day and i want this to go through today

[LolWagons]

essentially two of your points are "BEF is scummy" and like... yeah. but like that's not exclusive to him as scum from pretty much every single game that i've seen him in.

as for wagon speeds i just dont think its all that meaningful

Did you just read the bold? I thought I did pretty good at explaining why I thought he was scummy. Please don’t reduce that analysis to me just making unfounded statements.

[Ruby Red]

also maf JK like never claims JK so if BEF is wolf i would put it at serious odds that he's not actually a jailkeeper

(not even mentioning the fact that a mafia jailkeeper is serious fucking scum power in terms of how the NRG balances games)

[Ruby Red]

essentially two of your points are "BEF is scummy" and like... yeah. but like that's not exclusive to him as scum from pretty much every single game that i've seen him in.

as for wagon speeds i just dont think its all that meaningful

Did you just read the bold? I thought I did pretty good at explaining why I thought he was scummy. Please don’t reduce that analysis to me just making unfounded statements.

i'm not trying to reduce your statements and i didn't say that they're unfounded. all i'm saying is that we just fundamentally disagree when it comes to the connection of BEF being wolfy equalling BEF being wolf

like, to be clear – i don't disagree with your case that his play is wolfy. i just try to pride myself on not falling prey to lynchbait, and i think i have a pretty good history when it comes to that

[LolWagons]

BEF is LHF that can get lynched any day and i want this to go through today

Well we are at a stand-off then, because although I’d vote Doolittle I’m not giving in on BEF. I’m pretty confident on this read. Just because he’s mislynch bait doesn’t mean he’s immune from actually getting a Mafia role PM.

[LolWagons]

essentially two of your points are "BEF is scummy" and like... yeah. but like that's not exclusive to him as scum from pretty much every single game that i've seen him in.

as for wagon speeds i just dont think its all that meaningful

Did you just read the bold? I thought I did pretty good at explaining why I thought he was scummy. Please don’t reduce that analysis to me just making unfounded statements.

i'm not trying to reduce your statements and i didn't say that they're unfounded. all i'm saying is that we just fundamentally disagree when it comes to the connection of BEF being wolfy equalling BEF being wolf

like, to be clear – i don't disagree with your case that his play is wolfy. i just try to pride myself on not falling prey to lynchbait, and i think i have a pretty good history when it comes to that

Okay sorry. Just a little irritated because it seemed like you were saying I was just saying he was scummy without reasons.

[LolWagons]

essentially two of your points are "BEF is scummy" and like... yeah. but like that's not exclusive to him as scum from pretty much every single game that i've seen him in.

as for wagon speeds i just dont think its all that meaningful

Did you just read the bold? I thought I did pretty good at explaining why I thought he was scummy. Please don’t reduce that analysis to me just making unfounded statements.

i'm not trying to reduce your statements and i didn't say that they're unfounded. all i'm saying is that we just fundamentally disagree when it comes to the connection of BEF being wolfy equalling BEF being wolf

like, to be clear – i don't disagree with your case that his play is wolfy. i just try to pride myself on not falling prey to lynchbait, and i think i have a pretty good history when it comes to that

I have to pick your brain: how do you try to separate lynchbait from actual scum then?

[Ruby Red]

BEF is LHF that can get lynched any day and i want this to go through today

Well we are at a stand-off then, because although I’d vote Doolittle I’m not giving in on BEF. I’m pretty confident on this read. Just because he’s mislynch bait doesn’t mean he’s immune from actually getting a Mafia role PM.

wait what do you mean

if you'd vote DDL then we can do this today and go based off of the flip, yeah?

[LolWagons]

also maf JK like never claims JK so if BEF is wolf i would put it at serious odds that he's not actually a jailkeeper

(not even mentioning the fact that a mafia jailkeeper is serious fucking scum power in terms of how the NRG balances games)

That’s fair. He could be goon. They could both be goon and albeit frustrating we have had a productive day. I’ll hammer on DDL but not before I know for sure I can’t get the votes on BEF.

[LolWagons]

Just answered your question. Sorry.

Yes, I’m not going to let a no lynch happen but I want to know first that BEF was not possible. Does that make sense?

[ChibiBear]

VOTE COUNT 1.9

DrDolittle

(5): Egix96, BrightEyedFish, Trivium, Elbirn, Ruby Red

L-2

BrightEyedFish

(3): ceejayvinoya, LolWagons, profii

Springtrap

(1): DrDolittle

Trivium

(1): Doughboy

Ruby Red

(1): Malakitty

LolWagons

(1): Sad Sheep

Not Voting

(1): Springtrap

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends in

(expired on 2018-12-04 00:00:00)

ceejayvinoya has been prodded.

[Ruby Red]

I have to pick your brain: how do you try to separate lynchbait from actual scum then?

there's a lot to it

basically the first thing you need to do is realize that someone who's being wagoned

is

lynchbait in the first place: there are some players with obvious scum/town differences that basically only get lynched as scum and there are some players who basically get lynched nearly every game that they're in. if you're dealing with one of the second players that's when you need to start looking further

second step is to try to mentally separate the idea of awkwardness and scumminess in your head. some people are just naturally awkward sounding, robotic sounding or just generally wolfy when they type. if it's there as town too you need to nullify it as a scumtell

from there i'd say one of the main things i look at is intent: i'll use malakitty this game as an example because i think she's a pretty good one. i initially scumread her for all three of these posts:

Hm

setup speculation on page7 is a new one

Never seen that before

Wait why did Penguin replace out

:/ I actually wanted to play with him

all three of these posts were individual times entering the thread and just kind of making a random comment before disappearing. for someone who doesn't have much time, that doesn't show intent to try to make the most of that time, it just kind of shows intent to prod dodge and just put something out there.

my read basically hard shifted after her later posts which IMO strongly show towny intent to actually make the best use of her time even if it doesn't seem like she has a lot. her acknowledging that she's skimming and that she has a lot to catch up on went a long way towards that changing

[Springtrap]

I forgot to mention I get busy during the first and second of the year, and now I see i missed a bunch of pages. And claims.

Anyone here willing to give a bunnie a breakdown of the last 10 pages?

[Ruby Red]

bef claimed JK
ddl claimed vig

i think DDL is today's best lynch
wagons thinks its bef

[Springtrap]

VOTE COUNT 1.9

DrDolittle

(5): Egix96, BrightEyedFish, Trivium, Elbirn, Ruby Red

L-2

BrightEyedFish

(3): ceejayvinoya, LolWagons, profii

Springtrap

(1): DrDolittle

Trivium

(1): Doughboy

Ruby Red

(1): Malakitty

LolWagons

(1): Sad Sheep

Not Voting

(1): Springtrap

Day 1 ends in

(expired on 2018-12-04 00:00:00)

ceejayvinoya has been prodded.

Seeing the time left and the VC, it does seem weird to hang a vigilante claim unless he has been horrible this game. I'll reread that slot now. It's a role that easily confirms itself, right? I read in the Normal queue that Mini's are a single team of mafia vs a town, so if there is multiple kills, it means he's legitimate.

The JK (looked up as Jailkeeper) role is both a Protection and a Roleblock. Easy enough to say it's town, but with a vigilante it might be appropriate as a scum role? It does basically nullify the vigilante if he targets them. And if I see no extra kill tomorrow, that incriminates the vigilante.

So I guess my current stance is to hang the Jailkeeper so they can't be an excuse for the vigilante to claim they were stopped. If there isn't a second kill during the night, then the vigilante goes tomorrow.

VOTE: BigEyedFish

[Ruby Red]

figured spring wouldn't vote with me tbh

[Springtrap]

figured spring wouldn't vote with me tbh

I read your ISO and shortly after I disappeared it shows you didn't really even mention me when DoLittle became suspicious. Any reason why you were confident I was scum but put me on the backburner while I was away?

[Ruby Red]

when exactly are you talking about

[Ruby Red]

because i was also gone for a bit

[LolWagons]

I understand Ruby. I don’t agree with your interpretation of events but I did want to understand the thought process.