Mini 2039: uPicketyPicketyPick Mafia Endgame

[Kokichi Oma]

Nibbui, mutantdevle and Chibi I think are all very strongly town based on their own play, and I don't think anyone disagrees. Firebringer I trust that RC was right on. Nicorobin is town. I also think GE is lightly town based on his own play, but I admit that that's a read that I would be categorically likely to be wrong on.

this doesn't explain the scumreads. also why is nico town?

[Firebringer]

because if u did u would have a name of someone u think was being scummy for pushing u

i literally just posted 10 mins ago

but u just said u read it last night. How do you not have thoughts about it during that night when you thought about it, you can't just post random stuff and saying you have thought about it when u come in here and then say "well i just got here man". like what?

[northsidegal]

Nibbui, mutantdevle and Chibi I think are all very strongly town based on their own play, and I don't think anyone disagrees. Firebringer I trust that RC was right on. Nicorobin is town. I also think GE is lightly town based on his own play, but I admit that that's a read that I would be categorically likely to be wrong on.

this doesn't explain the scumreads. also why is nico town?

They're not scumreads, it's a PoE pool. Not to imply that I don't think any of you are scum – I do.

[Kokichi Oma]

kokichi this is what i have seen in ur iso so far, tell me what u think is townie or if i got anything wrong:
> you talking about ur role or mechanics [NAI]
> you arguing with someone about meta [NAI]
> you voting but not talking about the reasons you scumread or are voting [NAI]

please tell me what i am missing that is townie or indicative of alignment. Cause I think you not reading or having any thoughts on players or having a thought process that seems to be developing thoughts is scummy

Okay, then what do you think about what i just posted. And I explained the reasons why I thin Nico is scum. She low posts and scum all the time, she did it when I was scum with her. She posts a lot as town and actually has emotion behind the posts.

[Kokichi Oma]

because if u did u would have a name of someone u think was being scummy for pushing u

i literally just posted 10 mins ago

but u just said u read it last night. How do you not have thoughts about it during that night when you thought about it, you can't just post random stuff and saying you have thought about it when u come in here and then say "well i just got here man". like what?

Wut? I'm saying you didn't even give me time to post anything. you just voted me when I came in to post and what I was seeing

[Kokichi Oma]

Nibbui, mutantdevle and Chibi I think are all very strongly town based on their own play, and I don't think anyone disagrees. Firebringer I trust that RC was right on. Nicorobin is town. I also think GE is lightly town based on his own play, but I admit that that's a read that I would be categorically likely to be wrong on.

this doesn't explain the scumreads. also why is nico town?

They're not scumreads, it's a PoE pool. Not to imply that I don't think any of you are scum – I do.

Why is nico town?

[Kokichi Oma]

Furthermore, what do you think about the post I just made about your townread and her weird vote?

[Firebringer]

Wut? I'm saying you didn't even give me time to post anything. you just voted me when I came in to post and what I was seeing

Okay can u expand on ur thought that someone who tried to speedlynch u is scum then?

[northsidegal]

Votecount #14:

Player	Votes	Voters
Not Known 15	6	Firebringer, Gamma Emerald, northsidegal, Kokichi Oma, Nibbui, MariaR
Kokichi Oma	4	Not Known 15, Elbirn, RadiantCowbells, ChibiBear
Not voting	---	NicoRobin, mutantdevle

While we're on this track, we need to consider this vote count here. Let's assume Kokichi is scum for a moment: what does this say about the rest of the playerlist? Given the composition of his wagon, unless the other scum is something like {NK15, Elbirn}, I'll assume that Kokichi isn't being bussed by both members of the scumteam. That implies that his partners are primarily on the NK15 wagon.

Does this point to NK15 being town? I'm not so sure. I think it's possible that there's a world in which NK15 was the designated bus but a Kokichi counterwagon arose – in some sense, it would explain the strange Kokichi vote that NK15 made directly after the nico wagon collapsed. He could have known that he was going to die and wanted to distance in his final moments.

[Firebringer]

Okay, then what do you think about what i just posted. And I explained the reasons why I thin Nico is scum. She low posts and scum all the time, she did it when I was scum with her. She posts a lot as town and actually has emotion behind the posts.

I think meta reads are easy to give as either alignment so not really indicative of anything, unless it has a lot of thought behind it, especially one that is very vapid like what you gave out.

I have seen scum nico get emotional and she low posts as town too.

[Kokichi Oma]

I think something everyone should be focusing on is the night voting that took place yesterday, especially with the knowledge that nicorobin is town. The main question I'm trying to figure out is the alignment relationship between NK15 and Maria/Kokichi

Something interesting to note is this, which happened immediately after votes for Nico were declared invalid:

I think Kokichi is a solid lynch. It's certainly better than trash wagon and lurker lynch. I personally have my eye on them because he seems to be pretending not to care too much about the game which I've seen him do twice before as scum.

I think that is the only lynch that could happen this phase except my own and Kokichi could be scum. We are still running out of time.
VOTE: Kokichi Oma

this is basically the first mention of kokichi in NK15's entire ISO, whom he votes from zero, ignoring RC who was at 1 vote already and whom he seemed to scumread. we know that RC was town now, so if we consider a potential scum!NK15, what was he trying to accomplish by voting kokichi over a townie who was already at one vote and might have been easy to mislynch here?

Because he saw mutant voting him. and what were his other options to vote at the time. i think he's pocketing mutant btw.

[Firebringer]

i really don't feel like ur sorting stuff Kokichi. GIVE ME SOME GOOD TOWNIE POSTS PLS

[Kokichi Oma]

Wut? I'm saying you didn't even give me time to post anything. you just voted me when I came in to post and what I was seeing

Okay can u expand on ur thought that someone who tried to speedlynch u is scum then?

did you not see the post where i broke it down?

[northsidegal]

Let's assume NK15 is town. Why didn't the wagon on him go through? While there are a number of possibilities and really anything is possible, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that it would probably be because there was no scumteam member off-wagon to hammer. That would imply that all three members of the scumteam were already on the NK15 wagon. Taking into account my pre-existing reads, that would imply Gamma to be the third scumteam member of a Maria/Kokichi scum pair.

not sure i really have a central point here, just sort of exploring avenues of thought to see if anything meaningful pops up.

[Kokichi Oma]

Votecount #14:

Player	Votes	Voters
Not Known 15	6	Firebringer, Gamma Emerald, northsidegal, Kokichi Oma, Nibbui, MariaR
Kokichi Oma	4	Not Known 15, Elbirn, RadiantCowbells, ChibiBear
Not voting	---	NicoRobin, mutantdevle

While we're on this track, we need to consider this vote count here. Let's assume Kokichi is scum for a moment: what does this say about the rest of the playerlist? Given the composition of his wagon, unless the other scum is something like {NK15, Elbirn}, I'll assume that Kokichi isn't being bussed by both members of the scumteam. That implies that his partners are primarily on the NK15 wagon.

Does this point to NK15 being town? I'm not so sure. I think it's possible that there's a world in which NK15 was the designated bus but a Kokichi counterwagon arose – in some sense, it would explain the strange Kokichi vote that NK15 made directly after the nico wagon collapsed. He could have known that he was going to die and wanted to distance in his final moments.[/quot

Okay, can you break this down with the thought that I'm town? (for devil's advocate)

[Firebringer]

UNVOTE:
going to sleep.

GOODNIGHT NSG!

[Kokichi Oma]

Votecount #14:

Player	Votes	Voters
Not Known 15	6	Firebringer, Gamma Emerald, northsidegal, Kokichi Oma, Nibbui, MariaR
Kokichi Oma	4	Not Known 15, Elbirn, RadiantCowbells, ChibiBear
Not voting	---	NicoRobin, mutantdevle

While we're on this track, we need to consider this vote count here. Let's assume Kokichi is scum for a moment: what does this say about the rest of the playerlist? Given the composition of his wagon, unless the other scum is something like {NK15, Elbirn}, I'll assume that Kokichi isn't being bussed by both members of the scumteam. That implies that his partners are primarily on the NK15 wagon.

Does this point to NK15 being town? I'm not so sure. I think it's possible that there's a world in which NK15 was the designated bus but a Kokichi counterwagon arose – in some sense, it would explain the strange Kokichi vote that NK15 made directly after the nico wagon collapsed. He could have known that he was going to die and wanted to distance in his final moments.

Okay, can you break this down with the thought that I'm town? (for devil's advocate)

fixed

[Firebringer]

while i am at it:
VOTE: Elbirn

I am coming for u sir, u are still my biggest scumread.

[Kokichi Oma]

Also NSG, you used to be confident that you could read me. What's changed. You actively used to try to figure out my alignment and right now you're just pushing me in a POE pool, which is a bit weird based on the games we've played together that you've never just tried to POE me.

[Kokichi Oma]

Ugh, we're running out of time.

I dunno, I think that I was slightly townleaning Kokichi earlier because I feel like scum wouldn't ultra focus on the minigames and ignore everything else like he did, but I'm not sure how valid a 'read' that really is. He actively avoided taking a stance on the 1v1 and during tonight he seems to be jumping on the most popular wagons, which I'm not too sure about but it's not necessarily scum motivated? If he really is town and telling the truth though, then we could be lynching a pretty big potential asset, but even if that’s the case, I'm not entirely sure that I'll ever trust him enough to allow him to use his ability without question. I don't think his claim is a lie as it’s so easily provable, but I reckon it's entirely possible that it is a half truth and there's more to it. At the moment my read on him is null at best.

If NK15's strange logic is characteristic of his play regardless of alignment then he's gonna be a pain to sort with any kind of certainty. His push on Nibbui is very interesting though, would scum start a push against a widely townread player? Or rather more importantly, does his push seem genuine? At the point where he started pushing Nibbui, there were already quite a few votes on him, I feel like if he were scum looking to get out of a lynch, he wouldn't decide to go for Nibbui of all people, I think that his push is more likely than not to be genuine.

Ughhhhhhhh I'm taking a stance here I guess, feels bad to just waste Elbirn’s ability.

VOTE: Kokichi

This is a weird post because she states that she's running out of time. Implying that the vote on me is because it's running out of time. Then explains that her read on me is null at best, and nk15 is scummy based on the push she feels like is not genuine. At the point of this vote, NK15 had 6 votes, and if she was serious about being upset about running out of time, I don't see why she would vote me in that moment when I had less votes and she null read me and scumread nk15. I feel this post needs an explanation and I'm surprised no one else pointed it out. NK15 flips scum, this would be my next lynch

Nibbui, mutantdevle and Chibi I think are all very strongly town based on their own play, and I don't think anyone disagrees. Firebringer I trust that RC was right on. Nicorobin is town. I also think GE is lightly town based on his own play, but I admit that that's a read that I would be categorically likely to be wrong on.

this doesn't explain the scumreads. also why is nico town?

They're not scumreads, it's a PoE pool. Not to imply that I don't think any of you are scum – I do.

Why is nico town?

Votecount #14:

Player	Votes	Voters
Not Known 15	6	Firebringer, Gamma Emerald, northsidegal, Kokichi Oma, Nibbui, MariaR
Kokichi Oma	4	Not Known 15, Elbirn, RadiantCowbells, ChibiBear
Not voting	---	NicoRobin, mutantdevle

While we're on this track, we need to consider this vote count here. Let's assume Kokichi is scum for a moment: what does this say about the rest of the playerlist? Given the composition of his wagon, unless the other scum is something like {NK15, Elbirn}, I'll assume that Kokichi isn't being bussed by both members of the scumteam. That implies that his partners are primarily on the NK15 wagon.

Does this point to NK15 being town? I'm not so sure. I think it's possible that there's a world in which NK15 was the designated bus but a Kokichi counterwagon arose – in some sense, it would explain the strange Kokichi vote that NK15 made directly after the nico wagon collapsed. He could have known that he was going to die and wanted to distance in his final moments.

Okay, can you break this down with the thought that I'm town? (for devil's advocate)

fixed

Also NSG, you used to be confident that you could read me. What's changed. You actively used to try to figure out my alignment and right now you're just pushing me in a POE pool, which is a bit weird based on the games we've played together that you've never just tried to POE me.

NSG can you respond to these 4 posts individually. Gonna go for now.

[Kokichi Oma]

Also Elbrin, can you explain your scumread on me?

[northsidegal]

Because he saw mutant voting him. and what were his other options to vote at the time. i think he's pocketing mutant btw.

That's not possible. Mutant's vote came before NK15's. What were his other options? How about RC?

Votecount #14:

Player	Votes	Voters
Not Known 15	6	Firebringer, Gamma Emerald, northsidegal, Kokichi Oma, Nibbui, MariaR
Kokichi Oma	4	Not Known 15, Elbirn, RadiantCowbells, ChibiBear
Not voting	---	NicoRobin, mutantdevle

While we're on this track, we need to consider this vote count here. Let's assume Kokichi is scum for a moment: what does this say about the rest of the playerlist? Given the composition of his wagon, unless the other scum is something like {NK15, Elbirn}, I'll assume that Kokichi isn't being bussed by both members of the scumteam. That implies that his partners are primarily on the NK15 wagon.

Does this point to NK15 being town? I'm not so sure. I think it's possible that there's a world in which NK15 was the designated bus but a Kokichi counterwagon arose – in some sense, it would explain the strange Kokichi vote that NK15 made directly after the nico wagon collapsed. He could have known that he was going to die and wanted to distance in his final moments.

Okay, can you break this down with the thought that I'm town? (for devil's advocate)

Sure, just give me a second. I want to actually put some thought into it.

[Kokichi Oma]

That's not possible. Mutant's vote came before NK15's. What were his other options? How about RC?

Mutant stated he'd vote me. So, that's as good as putting a vote down. and come on, do you think NK15 could get RC lynched there? no way.

[ChibiBear]

Ugh, we're running out of time.

I dunno, I think that I was slightly townleaning Kokichi earlier because I feel like scum wouldn't ultra focus on the minigames and ignore everything else like he did, but I'm not sure how valid a 'read' that really is. He actively avoided taking a stance on the 1v1 and during tonight he seems to be jumping on the most popular wagons, which I'm not too sure about but it's not necessarily scum motivated? If he really is town and telling the truth though, then we could be lynching a pretty big potential asset, but even if that’s the case, I'm not entirely sure that I'll ever trust him enough to allow him to use his ability without question. I don't think his claim is a lie as it’s so easily provable, but I reckon it's entirely possible that it is a half truth and there's more to it. At the moment my read on him is null at best.

If NK15's strange logic is characteristic of his play regardless of alignment then he's gonna be a pain to sort with any kind of certainty. His push on Nibbui is very interesting though, would scum start a push against a widely townread player? Or rather more importantly, does his push seem genuine? At the point where he started pushing Nibbui, there were already quite a few votes on him, I feel like if he were scum looking to get out of a lynch, he wouldn't decide to go for Nibbui of all people,

I think that his push is more likely than not to be genuine.

Ughhhhhhhh I'm taking a stance here I guess, feels bad to just waste Elbirn’s ability.

VOTE: Kokichi

This is a weird post because she states that she's running out of time. Implying that the vote on me is because it's running out of time. Then explains that her read on me is null at best, and nk15 is scummy based on the push she feels like is not genuine. At the point of this vote, NK15 had 6 votes, and if she was serious about being upset about running out of time, I don't see why she would vote me in that moment when I had less votes and she null read me and scumread nk15. I feel this post needs an explanation and I'm surprised no one else pointed it out. NK15 flips scum, this would be my next lynch

Bruh, you completely misread my post. I said that I felt that NK15's push on Nibbui was likely genuine and therefore was not scumreading him.

Ok so RC flipping town has messed me up a bit, I'm going to need to think about all this.

[northsidegal]

Also NSG, you used to be confident that you could read me. What's changed. You actively used to try to figure out my alignment and right now you're just pushing me in a POE pool, which is a bit weird based on the games we've played together that you've never just tried to POE me.

Not a lot has changed, I just think that this game you haven't put out that much AI content in isolation such that I don't townread you, but I don't have a slam dunk scumread on you.

As for 2546, I really don't think Chibi is scum and I don't want to spend time reevaluating that read before I spend time working on sorting out more high priority reads. I will say that in the post you quoted she's explaining reasons for NK15 being town which doesn't seem to imply a scumread on him as you say.

That's not possible. Mutant's vote came before NK15's. What were his other options? How about RC?

Mutant stated he'd vote me. So, that's as good as putting a vote down. and come on, do you think NK15 could get RC lynched there? no way.

Eh, that's possible. And yes, I think RC could've very easily been mislynched there with the right momentum – there were some votes towards him during that phase already anyways. NK15 may not have needed to

drive

his wagon, but just putting his vote there could've been enough.

I will ask you this, though – it almost seems to me like you're justifying NK15's vote on you or something. Could you clarify exactly what you mean in this post?

Because he saw mutant voting him. and what were his other options to vote at the time. i think he's pocketing mutant btw.

what conclusions are you coming to exactly?