Mini 2039: uPicketyPicketyPick Mafia Endgame

[Not Known 15]

What happened to Nico Robin and their prevented lynch?
NSG, do you claim to have clearing info on Nico Robin?
Why don't I see a horde of people screaming for their lynch - but rather some mild disagreement with them being not wagoned...

[Gamma Emerald]

I think something everyone should be focusing on is the night voting that took place yesterday, especially with the knowledge that nicorobin is town. The main question I'm trying to figure out is the alignment relationship between NK15 and Maria/Kokichi

Something interesting to note is this, which happened immediately after votes for Nico were declared invalid:

I think Kokichi is a solid lynch. It's certainly better than trash wagon and lurker lynch. I personally have my eye on them because he seems to be pretending not to care too much about the game which I've seen him do twice before as scum.

I think that is the only lynch that could happen this phase except my own and Kokichi could be scum. We are still running out of time.
VOTE: Kokichi Oma

this is basically the first mention of kokichi in NK15's entire ISO, whom he votes from zero, ignoring RC who was at 1 vote already and whom he seemed to scumread. we know that RC was town now, so if we consider a potential scum!NK15, what was he trying to accomplish by voting kokichi over a townie who was already at one vote and might have been easy to mislynch here?

Wait how do we know nico is town

[Gamma Emerald]

Votecount #14:

Player	Votes	Voters
Not Known 15	6	Firebringer, Gamma Emerald, northsidegal, Kokichi Oma, Nibbui, MariaR
Kokichi Oma	4	Not Known 15, Elbirn, RadiantCowbells, ChibiBear
Not voting	---	NicoRobin, mutantdevle

While we're on this track, we need to consider this vote count here. Let's assume Kokichi is scum for a moment: what does this say about the rest of the playerlist? Given the composition of his wagon, unless the other scum is something like {NK15, Elbirn}, I'll assume that Kokichi isn't being bussed by both members of the scumteam. That implies that his partners are primarily on the NK15 wagon.

Does this point to NK15 being town? I'm not so sure. I think it's possible that there's a world in which NK15 was the designated bus but a Kokichi counterwagon arose – in some sense, it would explain the strange Kokichi vote that NK15 made directly after the nico wagon collapsed. He could have known that he was going to die and wanted to distance in his final moments.

While on this track I’d like to note since RC was NKed scum likely didn’t plan to ML him

[Gamma Emerald]

@mod,

RC won a mini game yet his flip does not include a mini game role PM. Is this a mod error?

Fuck me I can't read. Ignore me please mod.

Wait no he should’ve flipped that

[MariaR]

VOTE: NSG
That was the dumbest night kill and seeing NSG try to take advantage of it right away speaks volumes.
People who were in RCs poe don't just kill RC to conf his said poe.(At least I wouldn't and I don't think people are dumb enough to do that) So it came from people not in said poe or enough scum outside it

[Kokichi Oma]

It's the wording, I guess. Cause you can read it as 'not to be genuine'.

Still, why would you vote your null read there at that point?

Because out of the 2 viable wagons, I thought that you were more likely to be scum.

In the early game I am far more comfortable with townreads than scumreads, so I was focused on not letting someone I was townleaning get lynched.

So what are your reads now

[Kokichi Oma]

Also, Idk what to do with kokichi, but now I noticed how he sort of lacks engagement on reading people in this game.

Have you not been reading the past 4 pages where I was involved in every conversation. How about you tell me your reads

[Kokichi Oma]

hi. i'm reasonably confident that there are three scum out of the four of {elbirn, maria, kokichi, nk15}.

i invite any disagreement.

I disagree. I'd switch NK15 out for Nibbui.

Why

[Kokichi Oma]

VOTE: NSG
That was the dumbest night kill and seeing NSG try to take advantage of it right away speaks volumes.
People who were in RCs poe don't just kill RC to conf his said poe.(At least I wouldn't and I don't think people are dumb enough to do that) So it came from people not in said poe or enough scum outside it

I dont think it was the worst.

[Kokichi Oma]

Talking about the nk. Maria what's your read on me

[northsidegal]

Chibi sounds good but I have not that much confidence there, but there are other slots to be looked at right now.

Also, Idk what to do with kokichi, but now I noticed how he sort of lacks engagement on reading people in this game.

Like I said to kokichi earlier, I'm not all that paranoid of Chibi right now. Why do you think she could be scum? It's possible I need to do a closer reread, but from what I've read it's felt like she's playing to her towngame.

hi. i'm reasonably confident that there are three scum out of the four of {elbirn, maria, kokichi, nk15}.

i invite any disagreement.

I disagree. I'd switch NK15 out for Nibbui.

I

very

much doubt that Nibbui is scum here. Why do you think he is?

Nicorobin is town.

Based on what?

Mutant, we've played together in more than a few games by now. Can you trust in me enough to believe me when I say that she's town? I have 100% confidence in this.

[northsidegal]

Not Known 15 is fundamentally lynch bait due to the way he plays. Often his posts consist of his raw thoughts as he thinks of them which leads him to post a lot of half-formed or outright wrong conclusions. This gets him in trouble and he can easily be framed as mafia. The fact that no one can point to anything scummy that he's done outside of his lynch baity nature tells me that everyone who has voted for him is either falling for that lynch bait or are mafia trying to get an easy lynch. On top of this, I expect NK15's scum game to be very very noticeable. I've never seen his scum game, but he strikes me as someone who would often slip. It's alright saying that he's scummy because what he is saying doesn't make sense, but NK15 doesn't make sense. What you should be questioning is "does this make sense for NK15". And if you asked me that question about any of his posts this game then I'd say yes, it does make sense for him. I feel that I've played enough games with NK15 and witnessed his logic first hand that I know what makes sense for him. In almost all of his posts he explains his logic. You can track back what made him think certain things. If you can't, then you question him. He'll be able to explain because he plays an honest game. So you'd know he is scum when he's playing dishonestly.

In short, think of it as this: People are voting for NK15 for purely lynch bait reasons. You cannot be lynch bait if you aren't town.

i actually really like this logic and can add onto it myself the knowledge that in NK15's scumgame (from what i've seen) he really can't replicate the kind of posts that he's made this game

like i think i pointed out to kokichi earlier, i don't think nk15 could make a massive case like the one he made on nibbui as scum

[northsidegal]

VOTE: NSG
That was the dumbest night kill and seeing NSG try to take advantage of it right away speaks volumes.

People who were in RCs poe don't just kill RC to conf his said poe.(At least I wouldn't and I don't think people are dumb enough to do that) So it came from people not in said poe or enough scum outside it

Let's consider the last line here (I have things to say in response to the rest of the post, but I'll leave them for later).

I don't think what you're saying makes sense. Let's consider that scum are in RC's PoE. What's the best way to stop that from being pushed and silence someone who would push that PoE? Obviously it would be to kill the person who has it – the effects of someone being alive to actually push and talk about something are

far, far

more dangerous to scum than simply killing someone to "confirm" their PoE.

I think this is common sense and nearly indisputable: in basic mafia games like mountainous, a

lot

of scum's power comes from being able to silence the good townies or the people they don't want speaking. Far, far less people are inclined to consider a dead townie's reads than they are to consider the reads of someone alive and actively pushing something.


I mean, let's even consider the start of this day already: it's possible I'm overlooking something, but as far as I can remember I am the only person to independently bring up his reads, and any other discussion about it has simply been responding to me (don't mean to come off as arrogant or anything here or say i'm somehow better, just trying to prove a point). In fact, a lot of people have come in with reads that run directly

counter

to what RC's reads were – in practice, what you're saying has pretty much already been proven wrong.

[northsidegal]

So, you think I'm scum, Maria?

[northsidegal]

While on this track I’d like to note since RC was NKed scum likely didn’t plan to ML him

i don't mean to be rude here, but don't you think that seems a little obvious? maybe there's something i'm missing – what conclusion would you come to from that information?

what are your reads right now, gamma?

[Gamma Emerald]

While on this track I’d like to note since RC was NKed scum likely didn’t plan to ML him

i don't mean to be rude here, but don't you think that seems a little obvious? maybe there's something i'm missing – what conclusion would you come to from that information?

what are your reads right now, gamma?

My conclusion is that Nibbui prolly isn’t scum
Also thinking Kokichi’s defending the NK is a bit scum indicative as I generally do that as scum

[Elbirn]

I'm preoccupied but I wanna be a part of things

NSG I believe in you and I wish you could have played like this Day 1

I made the mistake of trying to read this thread last night while inebriated and while I thought I was on some next level shit at the time today I'm like ehhh

I have misgivings about FB that need to be thought about

I'm doubting my chibi town read, but I'm also scumreading Kokichi and I need to sort the post he made pushing chibi for not voting NK and what that all means, both like...what this means for chibi and what it means for the two of them as a pairing

Uhhm

Hi everyone how are you?

[northsidegal]

My conclusion is that Nibbui prolly isn’t scum
Also thinking Kokichi’s defending the NK is a bit scum indicative as I generally do that as scum

that's actually an interesting point on nibbui and one that i agree with. nice one! i didn't get it for a second at first, so for anyone else who doesn't – scum very rarely kill the same people that they're pushing for a lynch unless some kind of unforeseen circumstances arose when discussing who to nightkill.

do you have reason to believe that kokichi does that as scum or are you just speaking form personal experience there

[northsidegal]

NSG I believe in you and I wish you could have played like this Day 1

i wish i could have played like this day one too. there's actually just a lot of things that have come together very specifically right now to cause this shift:

• My V/LA is coming to a close and all of the real life stuff i've been busy with for a while is winding down
  
• With RC dead, i feel a need to step up and be more active in pushing my reads. Me and RC had basically the same poe at the end of the day yesterday so I was basically just playing in the neighborhood for a long time
  
• I didn't scumread Varsoon but I wasn't going to fight RC on it. That's out of the way now.
  
• I can't die so I don't need to worry about getting nightkilled.

and finally, i realized that i'm not going to passively sit by, not push my reads and let town lose, which is basically the entire reason for why i lost the last two towngames that i've lost, as well as for why i nearly lost some of the last few towngames that i still won.

[Gamma Emerald]

That’s a personal thing on Kokichi, I don’t have any known history of him doing it

[northsidegal]

right now i think the core of {Maria, Kokichi} almost always contains two scum and it's just a matter of actually nailing down who the third is when i'm starting to doubt that any of GE, NK15 and Elbirn are scum

[Nibbui]

My conclusion is that Nibbui prolly isn’t scum
Also thinking Kokichi’s defending the NK is a bit scum indicative as I generally do that as scum

that's actually an interesting point on nibbui and one that i agree with. nice one! i didn't get it for a second at first, so for anyone else who doesn't – scum very rarely kill the same people that they're pushing for a lynch unless some kind of unforeseen circumstances arose when discussing who to nightkill.

I'm scum though, I just love WIFOM.

Anyway, If both you and mutant are saying that NK15 doesn't play like this as town, I'll buy it for now, either because if you're town you are likely right and because if you're scum I don't know if you would say this about your buddy. Maybe but not likely for me.

[Elbirn]

VOTE: NSG
That was the dumbest night kill and seeing NSG try to take advantage of it right away speaks volumes.
People who were in RCs poe don't just kill RC to conf his said poe.(At least I wouldn't and I don't think people are dumb enough to do that) So it came from people not in said poe or enough scum outside it

I dont think it was the worst.

@NSG and Gamma: is this the post in question?

I dont know that I see this as AI. Why does scum make this post? How proud to you have to be to defend your own nightkill?

[northsidegal]

Addendum to 2612 – it's not

impossible

that scum who were being townread by RC would decide to kill him there with the motivation being to cement his reads such that he couldn't change his mind on them being town. That's certainly a real motivation. What I think is that you can't unilaterally declare that scum isn't in the PoE just because he was killed. It's possible that the motivation was actually two-fold: to stop pushes on scum in the PoE and to cement townreads on scum whom he may have been townreading.

Anyway, If both you and mutant are saying that NK15 doesn't play like this as town, I'll buy it for now, either because if you're town you are likely right and because if you're scum I don't know if you would say this about your buddy. Maybe but not likely for me.

You don't have to just take me on faith for this (like i would like you to do on nicorobin) – in fact, it would make me feel more confident if other people took a look at NK15's scumgames too and said what they think.

I'm not saying nk15 is locktown never lynch here, just that i think there's reason to believe he's town here such that we should focus on other people in the PoE first.

@NSG and Gamma: is this the post in question?

I dont know that I see this as AI. Why does scum make this post? How proud to you have to be to defend your own nightkill?

i mean, i can't say i really agree with gamma on the "defending the nightkill" idea, i was saying that his point on nibbui was pretty good.

[Nibbui]

I think that Elbirn is town.