mini 2048: mafia mafia (BOMPLETE)

[mastina]

Well this is awkward.
I thought I was replacing into town.

Uhh.

Can you give me a rundown of any claims that have happened in the game?
Did my slot claim ascetic?

[mastina]

I kill Lolwagons

.
Since I don't have better ideas for a kill.
I also don't have better ideas for a roleblock tho.

[mastina]

Just gonna submit a:

Lapsa blocks: Wagonomics

as a placeholder.

Literally flying blind here so I could be doing the worst possible things and not have a clue.

[mastina]

So with a loyal neighborizer in this game.
Against an informed ascetic.
And a multitasking roleblocker.

We're still looking at a shitton of power missing.
It's a bit early to tell their exact nature but I wouldn't be surprised to see a vig in here. We also likely have a second investigative role, but probably not cop, gunsmith, or neapolitan. More like similar to the Loyal Neighborizer, or Tracker, or Follower, the like.
I'd be expecting AT LEAST four total town PRs in the game, potentially even five. I'd stay on the lookout for a protective as well, though I doubt ungated since it'd be a little unfair to expect the scum if losing the roleblocker to overcome follow the cop.

So a protective is less likely ungated, more likely gated; a second investigative is likely; a vig is possible. Puts us in the ballpark.

We really need to hit the PRs right now; if we don't hit them N1, we've lost the game already.

[mastina]

VT VIBES: Nikk, Trivium.
PR VIBES: Robert, Sashadin

NO VIBES: The others I'm reading thusfar.

I wouldn't kill on vibes by the way. We need to hit PRs, yes, but in my experience the best way to hit PRs is to...not try and hit PRs. The best way to hit PRs is to target the people you want to target for other reasons. Which is why in spite of these vibes I'm not changing the kill; I want to kill Lolwagons for the threat presented there.

[mastina]

I somewhat doubt profii's claim is true, and bear with me--I want to give him a night to prove it.
If he's real, then he'll know Rob's town tomorrow.
If he's not the role we're looking for, continue hunting. (Well the role we're hunting for will be obvious tomorrow anyway, butstill.)

Doesn't mean he can't be another role--but I actually want to give him his alleged investigation.

[mastina]

Gated means restricted by some modifier. Specifically, a modifier weakening the power of the role.

I'd prefer the block still on Wagonomics, because if they are a PR, they'll get more mileage out of it than profii, who we know is either lying or targeting town.

If you see a player baiting a night action…don't fall for the bait!

Lapsa blocks: Wagonomics

, but if you change it back to profii, I won't argue that decision.

[mastina]

I somewhat doubt profii's claim is true, and bear with me--I want to give him a night to prove it.
If he's real, then he'll know Rob's town tomorrow.
If he's not the role we're looking for, continue hunting. (Well the role we're hunting for will be obvious tomorrow anyway, butstill.)

Doesn't mean he can't be another role--but I actually want to give him his alleged investigation.

well... if he clears rob and consequentially himself - I feel like we might get ourselves cornered

somehow I don't like / understand the idea

Let me tell you: if he is the Loyal Neighborizer, then tomorrow it will be immediately obvious. However, it only becomes obvious to US.

WE know that there is a Loyal Town Neighborizer. The town does not.

If we have confirmation that profii is the neighborizer, the solution is to then kill Rob and park our roleblock on him, while killing other players.

There's a good reason for that order of operations:
If he succeeds once, he'll think that scum can't counter his role.

Since we can, he'll produce a false guilty D3.
If we blocked him N1, no false guilty D2, because he figures out that he was blocked.

Make sense?

[mastina]

Basically.
He's going to assume that if his action failed tonight, it was from scum interference. A reasonable and correct call to make.

If he succeeds tonight, he is going to assume that all future failures are guilties.

We lose one mislynch, but gain one free mislynch, which would hopefully be even better.

Now obviously, this is a gambit.
If you're not comfortable with taking the risk, you can change the block to profii.

But the reward would be more than worth it.

Also, like I said.
Profii claimed openly.
It is quite likely that he's deliberately trying to bait us to target him.

I'd prefer not giving him what he's after.

[mastina]

let's put it that way - I agree not to block profii

Generally I prefer to leave the decision to the holder of the role, especially since I am only a replacement.

My use is a "better than nothing" use, and my advice is what I think, but ultimately I DO want to have it as your choice.

If you are agreeing with my logic/gambit on profii not being the block, then that still leaves open the options on who to block.

Is there anyone who you WANT to block?

[mastina]

I want to kill Lolwagons for the threat presented there.

@mastina what do you mean by threat presented there?

I know LolWagons as being an incredibly competent town player.

Also, reading the game, he looked like he didn't have any suspicion on him, but was leading the town. So, obvtown that's charismatic and accurate.

Even if he's a VT, and there's like a 50% chance he's not, it'd be a smart kill.

[mastina]

Precisely.
Generally, I view a single lost kill to confirm the presence of a doctor worth it.
If there's a Vig, the lack of second kill can frame them.
No Vig, even better.
We are put onto evens. Which statistically speaking, favor scum.

[mastina]

no protection, no vig, some1 has results?

No protection on LolWagons, but yes.
We are still dealing with at least one more investigate, possibly even two.

It wouldn't surprise me if our protective role were a jailkeeper, either. Be on guard.

[mastina]

I'd guess profii is a fruit vendor, with either the loyal or weak modifier.

This won't necessarily make Rob conftown, if it can be argued profii telegraphed it hard enough for it to be guessed.

[mastina]

So Sashadin may be a tracker/watcher type role.
Might be worth a block or kill.

[mastina]

pretty sure I can't afford to scumread nikk

@mastina gl on fighting wagonomics

Considering that Wagonomics is massively off base on the setup spec for Minis, not a hard task.

Also, score! Wagonomics is a PR; profii may be a vt.

No clue on that abbreviation BTW.

[mastina]

Wagonomics will townread me once I can play at full capacity.

[mastina]

Lapsa blocks: Sashadin
I kill: Flubbernugget

.
Sashadin, for the possible watcher/tracker role.

Flubbernugget, as the player who fills every checkmark.
I don't see players suspicious of him.
His voice carries weight.
His reads could pose a threat.
And he's a possible PR.

Are these agreeable?

[mastina]

Honestly? You can solo scum this if need be, if worst comes to worst. You can kill and block. As long as you're not caught by a tracker/watcher, you can win.

It's a bit harder for me to win alone; your life is more valuable than mine.

Still, there's at least two more power roles to find and shut down; I think that the current night actions give us our best chances.

[mastina]

Oh I'm never bussing you even if you were caught by a guilty.
Me on the other hand, do as you please; have your read on me be...at your discretion, whatever is natural for you, beit town, scum, or anything in-between.

[mastina]

TEH CHRISTMAS SPIRIT YAYYY!!111

My Christmas spirit involves mercy killing people to put them out of their misery since life is pain.

I am a saint.

[mastina]

Trivium is an asset; killing an asset for wifom is never advantageous no matter how much you may think it'd be.

[mastina]

would be fun though

Fun takes a back seat to victory to me. I like letting chaos reign just as much as the next girl (because it is indeed fun), but when doing so it has to be SMARTLY letting chaos reign.

And Trivium dead via nightkill is dumb chaos reigning.

[mastina]

we should look for mislynch elsewhere :/

rob reveals roleblocker

Not necessarily.

A viable alternative is that Flubber neighborized me, and simply scumread Robert.

Also possible? Wagonomics role stopping Robert. (Albeit unlikely.)

Plus, even if the town knows that there is a roleblocker, it's not like they can do anything about it. They've lost 3 PRs, and are about to mislynch a fourth.

They may have another PR hidden, but we have a fairly firm hold. They either have 4 total and no extras, or 5 total with the 5th unknown being fairly low-power.

With 2 loyal neighborizers and the JOAT, the Voyeur is a bonus role to boost the town. Even against what we have, they can't have much more than that.

[mastina]

Also, while Trivium is, no doubt, a vt, I happen to think that Triv is telling the truth about being neighborized. We can safely make that kill, and not have it hurt us.

I'd even recommend as much, without the conftown status. Trivium is an asset today, but I actually think that this is the final day that Trivium will help us. Once Robert flips town, it'll trigger a reset in Trivium's reads.

And since Trivium is influential and conftown, should that reset include a scumread on us…
…Well. That would be bad.

So, my current plan: Lynch Robert, kill Trivium, block whoever we want to, and maybe Lynch profii tomorrow. (We'll have to see, and play it by ear.)

[mastina]

Also, while Trivium is, no doubt, a vt, I happen to think that Triv is telling the truth about being neighborized. We can safely make that kill, and not have it hurt us.

I'd even recommend as much, without the conftown status. Trivium is an asset today, but I actually think that this is the final day that Trivium will help us. Once Robert flips town, it'll trigger a reset in Trivium's reads.

And since Trivium is influential and conftown, should that reset include a scumread on us…
…Well. That would be bad.

So, my current plan: Lynch Robert, kill Trivium, block whoever we want to, and maybe Lynch profii tomorrow. (We'll have to see, and play it by ear.)

Scratch that.

Trivium intends to lynch profii no matter what it looks like.

So we let Trivium live tonight, kill Sashadin and block whoever, lynch profii tomorrow, and

then

kill Trivium.

[mastina]

The truth is always your ally, you just need to occasionally present it in a different light.

[mastina]

Anyway.

Path to victory here:

Lynch either profii or Robert today.
Nightkill Shashadin.
If profii survived, block him I guess. If profii didn't survive, block whoever.
Lynch the other tomorrow.
Nightkill Trivium, block whoever.

In 5p lylo, we'll play it by ear.

[mastina]

I kill: Sashadin.
Lapsa blocks: Egix.

I suppose this works!

[mastina]

Sashadin could be the final town PR.
Even if not, I don't see anyone suspicious of Sashadin, and Sashadin is reasonably reasonable to present a threat. Aside from Trivium, I can't think of anyone we'd want to kill, as xwing, Robert, and Egix are all mislynchable.

Egix is the block, because we don't want to block Robert and we don't want him to SEE the block; he's most likely to voyeur Trivium, meaning that we should block elsewhere.

I didn't have a specific reason for Egix beyond that.

[mastina]

Add Nikk to the "can be mislynched" pile.
Point remains, tho.

[mastina]

how about no block?

If you want, then sure.

[mastina]

I kill: Trivium.
Lapsa blocks: xwing.

You can change the block to anyone--even no one. The kill's the important part.

[mastina]

Oh don't worry. Tomorrow, I'll push for a massclaim, which should stall voting, and remind everyone that it's lylo.

[mastina]

For the record: assuming that the vt claims are truthful, I actually find the setup notably scumsided. 2/4 of Informed/Ascetic/Multitasking/Roleblocker would be balanced. 3/4, a little scumsided still, but I'd still pass it albeit noting its scumsidedness.

All four?

Just overwhelmingly strong.
We knew what the central town power was, and had TWO methods of countering it. Methods with zero drawback.

That is WAY more powerful than the reviewer for this gave credit for. I'd place scum odds of winning at 62.5%--not MUCH over the margin of error (which is 60%), but enough to BE there.

Of course, this changes if we have a lying vt that's actually a PR, in which case I'd automatically call the setup balanced. But as-is, at face value? Scumsided unambiguously. Shame, since that'll detract from the win.

[mastina]

Btw sorry for calling you a she; it was a subtle distancing move to imply that I don't have the familiarity with you to know better. (The theory being, scumbuddies would obviously be more conscious of each others' genders due to their private chat.)

[mastina]

Hoh boy I feel bad for drawing this out.

If I could, organically, figure out a way to vote Egix immediately, here, I would, as to end the pain/suffering immediately.

But unfortunately, that doesn't fit the narrative I've been selling of taking time and being cautious so I need to slow-roll it.

Sorreh, xwing. <3

[mastina]

we won't sway nikk. he will vote me for sure

Well if he does, I vote him, and the town hammers him.

[mastina]

1039 is basically my plea to the town to give me an opening to just end the game.

I don't want their suffering to continue.
As is, I already feel guilty about essentially being a scum IC in a Newbie Game; I'm given too much free reign.

I've genuinely been truthful. I'd never lie about mafia theory, but the simple truth here is that I have an unfair advantage.
In role, because the setup is scumsided.
And in experience, because people are treating me with a level of reverence beyond what I deserve.

I don't want to keep things going needlessly long, but I need to have an opening to end the game; I have none yet.

[mastina]

Well I'm gonna have to vote Xwing it looks like.
Oh well.

[mastina]

mastina, I summon you!

I am here if you are--but you need to not make your vote be an obviously scum one.
Vote xwing with a town-looking justification.

[mastina]

Am around, but again:
If it fails, have a backup plan.
By which, I mean: if the hammer attempt fails, make it look as if it could have come from a town narrative.

[mastina]

Annnnd, that's game.

[mastina]

I'm so so so so sorry. <3

[mastina]

/consent for release btw.