Open 742: C9++ (Game Over)

[PenguinPower]

I really don't like TTTT slot - removed from my nostalgia from the player.

Again, reassessing in the morning.

[davesaz]

Votecount 3.2

0verki11(1)

~ TTTT(22)

Not Voting (6): Gamma Emerald(13), Gnelf(18), Clemency(4), 0verki11(0), Almost50(6), PenguinPower(22)

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-12-29 14:01:12)

[0verki11]

I really don't like TTTT slot - removed from my nostalgia from the player.

Again, reassessing in the morning.

I dont know their meta but they seem reasonably townie.

[TTTT]

Oh in that case.

UNVOTE: Overkill

[TTTT]

lolno
VOTE: Overkill

[Gamma Emerald]

what even

[TTTT]

my original reads when I replaced in still look pretty damn good

i think we find scum here:
Egix
Clem
Overkill
RoS
A50
(in no particular order)

least confident about A50 and Clem

[TTTT]

3of4 are scum:
overkill
A50
clem
Gamma

definitely don't wanna lynch gamma
cuz gamma's either SK or the SK target tonight (unless our lynch flips GF)

[TTTT]

outside chance of Gnelf is fakeclaiming
but seems very very unlikely w/o a counterclaim

[TTTT]

what even

Gamma vote overkill
k?
thx.

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: TTTT
No.

[TTTT]

explain your dumb vote

[Almost50]

VOTE: TTTT

The logic of wanting to lynch Mafia over SK is intriguing. From a Town PoV we are in a 4-2-1 situation and could easily be in a 2-1-1 situation with a specific lynch on Mafia, so we lose the game unless we either no lynch or lynch TOWN & scum cross kill (and that's assuming SK is invest immune not BP)

For Mafia it's a 5-2 situation (SK = Town Vig to them) so they want to lynch TOWN and hope SK shoots another = 2-2 for them regardless of whether they shoot SK or Town, i.e. Mafia win. If they lynch the SK then it's 3-2 tomorrow anyway.
Finally if one of them is lynched today (5-1) it still gets to 3-1 after tonight, which isn't that bad considering they only need to avoid getting lynched. If we lynch the SK though we are guaranteed to have another shot on the win in a 3-2 LyLo

SK wants to lynch Mafia to get to 4-1-1 and force Mafia to shoot Town (i.e. Best scenario for SK to survive the NK). It doesn't matter which Mafia member we lynch, because if it's the GF the RB will be forced to shoot Gnelf (Mafia can't perform 2 action) and if it's the RB then Gnelf's inno of Gamma is nothing because he still could be the GF, i.e. PP & Gnelf are still the likely NK targets and Mafia can't afford to shoot in the others to try to get the SK.

So, with that I conclude TTTT is the likely SK now, because it's neither in the best interest of Town or even Mafia (obviously) to lynch the Mafia over SK today.

[davesaz]

Votecount 3.3

TTTT(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(15), Almost50(7)

0verki11(1)

~ TTTT(29)


Not Voting (4): Gnelf(18), Clemency(4), 0verki11(1), PenguinPower(22)

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-12-29 14:00:12)

[TTTT]

VOTE: A50
can't say I'm surprised by that vote but it confirms the scumread I've had on you
town doesn't place that second vote on me without waiting for others to chime in

also your reason is garbage:
1) I never said we

should

lynch SK over Mafia. I asked the game to give feedback on this idea...

am I correct that a mafia lynch is preferred to a SK lynch today?
bc SK will be shooting at mafs tonight?

notice those questions marks?
traditionally question marks indicate a question
that's why they are called question marks

2) For you to construe this as "TTTT is SK" is a blatantly fabricated case to justify you dropping a 2nd vote (knowing that Pengy is a likely 3rd)

So, with that I conclude TTTT is the likely SK now, because it's neither in the best interest of Town or even Mafia (obviously) to lynch the Mafia over SK today.

[TTTT]

@pengy - plz go iso read A50 before voting

[TTTT]

particularly the quickvote on Egix at day2 start when Gnelf faked the guilty

[TTTT]

why would A50 immediately jump to vote Egix at day2 start when Gnelf fake-claimed a guilty?
considering:
A. A50 was TRing Egix
B. A50 had been SRing Gnelf day1 when
C. A50 forced Gnelf to claim
So he immediately believes an unproven claim from a slot he SR'd and forced to claim the day before
enough to vote his TR

I tried to dig into this inconsistency day2 but nobody A50 diverted by turning it into a discussion about ongoing game reads (remember that?)

[TTTT]

*...nobody cared and A50...*
missed two words

[Almost50]

town doesn't place that second vote on me without waiting for others to chime in

Why not? Mafia can get 2 quick votes on you and make themselves known, or could sneak in slowly and still we get rid of the SK and have only 1 NK tonight.

Now let's assume I'm wrong and you're not the SK (hard to believe with that logic of yours). You are either Mafia or Town. If Mafia GF then Gamma likely SK because of Gnelf's pool and not being RB'd on N1. If you're Mafia RB then Mafia GF will have a tough choice shooting between Gamma/Gnelf/PP.

Finally, if you're Town, it was YOU who had intended to throw from the start by stating you are specifically after the Mafia and not the SK, which I have explained in detail that is the worst option for Town.

[Almost50]

particularly the quickvote on Egix at day2 start when Gnelf faked the guilty

So, am O Mafia who decided to bus off the bat? Or am I SK who got pissed you don't want ti lynch them today??

[TTTT]

A50 have you figured out yet how your analysis in 1087 is wrong?
it shouldn't be hard if you look at it from a town POV

[TTTT]

oh wait...

[TTTT]

in fact if you'd actually read my earlier posts on this matter I even stated it
but you didn't bother reading them critically did you?

[Almost50]

Wait.

UNVOTE:

4-2-1 >> Lynch SK >> 4-2 >> 1 NK >> 3-2-0 LyLo (solid. No ifs)
4-2-1 >> Lynch Mafia >> 4-1-1 >> 2 NKs >> 2-1-1/3-0-1/3-1-0/4-0-0 (very swingy) 3 chances put of 4
4-2-1 >> Lynch Town >> 3-2-1 >> 2 NKs >> 1-2-1/2-1-1/2-2-0/3-1-0 (almost guaranteed Town Loss) 1 chance in 4
4-2-1 >> No Lynch >> 4-2-1 >> 2 NKs >> 2-2-1/3-1-1/3-2-0/4-1-0 we still can win on all 4 scenarios. although 2-2-1 is hard

So, our best shot is to Lynch the SK followed by No Lynch then Mafia lynch, but we cannot afford to mislynch.

I still think you are the SK, but I see now you could be Mafia trying to get on SK's good side, or Town who just counts on having Town solidarity in a 4 players MyLo.