Newbie 1908 [Game Over]

[skitter30]

VOTE COUNT 1.6

jim hawkins (4)

- rosterfoster, nauci, vivit, salamander

flavor leaf (2)

- komodo, munchmellow

salamander (1)

- xwing

munchmellow (1)

- jim hawkins

not voting (1)

- flavor leaf

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline:

(expired on 2018-12-30 23:00:00)

mod notes:

- xwing is vla on weekends
-

[xwing]

with salamander's vote on jim, i feel like jim might be town and im not too comfortable to switch votes now..

jim is actually at L-1 now..

i can RELUCTANTLY give intent to hammer just so we have a lynch today and enough time to discuss but i'd rather we wagon salamander..
there's likely scum in jim's wagon, and i'd wager either salamander or vivit..though i wont concede the thought that salamander might be bussing jim..

[Nauci]

I've been getting scum reads on Jim all game, and with Salamander's more recent posts my suspicions of him have weakened a bit; his posts seem more scrubby than scummy (though that could be exactly what he wants us to think, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now).

VOTE: Jim Hawkins should explain himself or walk the plank.

jim hawkins has been prodded

I am hopping on the Jim wagon, I feel he's lurking, like someone said earlier. I also don't believe that he's offering much (like someone said earlier about me lol) I also would like to state that now that it's after the holidays I will be way more active on here . I'm pretty new and may not understand all the meta so bare with me .

UNVOTE: rosterfoster
VOTE: Jim Hawkins

I love that magical moment when I develop scum reads

VOTE: salamander

[xwing]

nauci, finally, you've seen the light!
roster, komodo, munch, come over here and vote salamander..
TLDR:
jim is inactive or site flaked, whereas salamander is actively lurking and opportunistic..

willing to switch to vivit too..i agree with alot of roster's post 171
flavor im not sure, but i'd rate him as townier than vivit at this point..
the ones i'm inviting over for the salamander wagon are all town (in order from towniest)..or so i hope/think..

my lynch pool: {salamander, vivit, jim, flavor} in order of scummiest..

[vivit]

That is L-1 btw, so please hold off from placing any more votes.

One of those votes is from you, so if you're worried about Jim getting hammered, why don't you withdraw your vote? If it was a random vote I can understand why you might want to vote for a player you don't necessarily want to lynch, but on the same token, if it was a random vote, then why not just withdraw it?

I've been getting scum reads on Jim all game, and with Salamander's more recent posts my suspicions of him have weakened a bit; his posts seem more scrubby than scummy (though that could be exactly what he wants us to think, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now).

VOTE: Jim Hawkins should explain himself or walk the plank.

I don't like this post from vivit. He's not been getting scum reads on Jim all game - his only mention of Jim was in 94 (I think this tag works?) where he just said that lurking in itself is a scumread (I'm not sure I agree with that. It is the way Jim has been lurking which gives me scum vibes). But I can buy this coming from a town who changed their mind on Salamander.

I

have

been suspicious of Jim all game, though; I just haven't been expressing it because A) other things have been the topic of conversation and B) I didn't have then (and still don't have) a lot to support my suspicions other than the way he has been lurking. And yes, lurking is considered to be not just a scum tell, but a scum tactic to avoid accidentally making alignment-indicative posts. There are other reasons to lurk, but lurking as a townie is a generally counterproductive enterprise (read that wiki article for more information).

What I mean is that I'm giving him a chance to clear himself of suspicion if he starts posting more and argues his case well.

What case? That he's lurking because he's nervous/feels distant (I think we may get a replacement, so this point is moot anyway)? I feel like this is trying to over-justify hopping on a wagon, when there is a simpler (and probably more true) reason: He wants Jim to post some more. So I don't like these couple of posts from Vidit.

The case that he's innocent. I don't know what arguments he might make; I just included the "explain himself"/"make his case" phrases in my posts to make it clear that I still might be willing to change my mind on this if Jim turns around and says something convincing (not that I know what he's going to say). You are right in your assumption that I want Jim to post more, but I also suspect that he might be scum, and now that other people are expressing that suspicion I'm hopping off my wagon on Salamander to put some pressure on Jim to see if he says anything alignment-indicative.

Also, stop calling me "Vidit".

[rosterfoster]

I could explain why I keep calling you vidit, but you'd think I'm really weird

- I don't want Jim to get hammered without a response. If I thought there was someone who might quick hammer I would withdraw it immediately, but we seem to have somewhat sane players.

-Of course it's counterproductive for town to lurk. Unfortunately the act of lurking isn't scummy though, as it can happen for many reasons (lack of time; slightly irrational fear as town of being lynched) and Jim semi-lurked in his other game, so for him I think it's NAI. What I find to be scummy is the level of apparent disengagement, when really there is no reason to have that. In his previous game there was a level of disengagement. I think what he's done this game is perhaps scummy lurking, as it may well be to avoid questions. FWIW, I think 'Active Lurking' (it is linked in that article) is scummier - it is more like what Salamander is doing, although I don't think it is deliberate from him.

-Fair enough.

Also

VOTE: Salamander

I know pre-flip associations are stupid, but I don't think we have Vivit/Salamander scum team.

[rosterfoster]

Also I'm almost certain Xwing is town now. Nauci is going that way too.

[vivit]

The more I look at Salamander's recent posts the scummier he looks after all, especially taking into account Nauci's analysis of him here. Since the day is drawing to a close, I think I'll follow xwing and Nauci: VOTE: Salamander.

I find it especially interesting that Salamander went on the offensive, following me, immediately when I remove my vote from him...

[Nauci]

The more I look at Salamander's recent posts the scummier he looks after all, especially taking into account Nauci's analysis of him here. Since the day is drawing to a close, I think I'll follow xwing and Nauci: VOTE: Salamander.

I find it especially interesting that Salamander went on the offensive, following me, immediately when I remove my vote from him...

That vote was L-1

Roster and munch are my town reads (I've actually been town reading roster since like page 3, but I'm not over the mixed metaphor yet, okay)

Jim is... Probably enjoying the holidays? Idk. His posts are a tad lacking but not highly egregious.

Vivit is null but I didn't like the "explain himself" phrase for whatever gut reason

But that post from Salamander right after the prod alert felt like going after low hanging fruit, while his earlier posts had the praxtice-in-rhetoric feel I previously mentioned

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Nauci]

especially taking into account Nauci's analysis of him here.

All I did was quote 3 posts

So... what did you glean from it? What did you think my "analysis" was?

Rorschach quotes test

[vivit]

I cite Jim's lurking as cause for suspicion and hop on the wagon.

Jim gets prodded (which shows that he is not, strictly speaking, lurking.)

Salamander (who I just removed my vote from) follows me onto the wagon only a short while after the prod.

I thought you were drawing the connection there, particularly the "Salamander jumps on Jim for lurking right after Jim is prodded" bit.

[xwing]

vivit who are the other slots in your watch list and why?

[Nauci]

I'm highly suspicious of Flavor so far but I haven't had time to read his past IC games

[Nauci]

salamander and vivit have each recieved their first prod, and have 24 hours to post before being replaced

jim hawkins has been prodded

Side note

[Munchmellow]

I can't say I like this post. The argument for xwing being town feels very...off, but I dunno if it's AI or not. Correct me if I'm wrong but this is basically what you're saying: "If you were scum, you wouldn't push Sal because if he isn't worth risking a lynch for your own benefit of town cred. If he's town you have a target on your back." This feels like very flawed logic, and let me explain why.

Well, if you simplify it, this kind of is what I was saying. I also think xwing's posts read townie, but without a logical train of thought that would just be a gut feeling, and I don't like assumptions based solely on that.

You assume that someone risking to look scum is town which is a very...bad slope to slip on.

I agree, it would be a slippery slope, if I would be focused on that assumption. But since I am willing to adjust my assumption based on new information, I think I am good.

In the event of xwing being scum: First off, a push is not lynching. As much as I love Salamander, he's not bringing much to the table this game and I feel someone would have suggested it anyway. His name would have eventually popped out of someone's mouth and the possibility of him getting lynched is honestly unavoidable. If she (he? they? No gender is present in profile ;-;) was scum buddies with Salamander, I could honestly see this as preemptive damage control. Worse yet, what if xwing is scum and Sal is not? I'm going to talk more about the cost-benefit in the next paragraph, but you'd be giving scum a townread for taking a risk in looking like scum.

I agree that a push is not lynching, but this was not a damage control. After RVS xwing was the first to point out Salamander as scum. Now it looks like that it will be either him or Jim for the first lynch. And to stay the only scum after D1, with no PR claimed...that would be very hard to win. So this scenario seems highly unlikely to me.

If the event of xwing being town: This is the part of the argument that I have issue with because you're saying because xwing is taking a risk in looking like scum, this looks town. I find this wrong because 1) I don't think many, if any, would trace a potential Salamander lynch back to xwing if the reason of lynching is valid that many people can agree on so there's no real risk in pushing Salamander and 2) You assume that someone risking to look scum is town which is a very...bad slope to slip on. Yeah, xwing has very steadily been against Sal, but saying that because she is pushing him she is risking being scum so she is town doesn't make that much sense to me?

I think if Sal would flip town, even if there were valid reasons to lynch him, we would trace it back to xwing. Not right away, but if xwing would do anything scummy, this Sal lynch would come up as a case against her/him/them. I think there is a more subtle way to influence people to mislynch, so I will stick to my theory for now.

[Nauci]

Munchmellow, are you scum reading Salamander?

[Nauci]

With 3 days left we may be in intent-to-hammer/claim territory

[xwing]

^good posting, munch..i like how you think..just change your avatar pic (half kidding nyahaha)

[xwing]

I'm highly suspicious of Flavor so far but I haven't had time to read his past IC games

i thought you wanted to hone your skills without the use of meta?
dont read his meta, just read him as he is here..

PS: flavor, get back here soon after your friendmas..we wanna hear from you very much..

With 3 days left we may be in intent-to-hammer/claim territory

yup..i must say i was skeptical of nauci for trying to go back to RVS and being all joke-y, but i think i've warmed up to her now..

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, sorry. I’m on my way home now, but it’s a bit of a drive. I don’t know what I think about this wagon. I feel like it’s the first to pass the L-2 threshold, and therefor it’s a mislynch, but I wanna read up.

Hold off on hammering today, and I’ll analyze when I can.

[xwing]

take care on your way home..
it's Friday my time and off work soon so will read up later..

@komodo: what does your read list look like now?

[Munchmellow]

@Nauci, I had a null read on Salamander, but I really like what Roster is saying in 171 (btw, how do you link to a post, so you don't have to quote the whole thing?) and I agree with the reasons others have for scumreading him. So if it comes to a lynch, I am on board.

Now, I have a newbie theoretical question (for Flavor or other more expirienced players) - When is time to give intent to hammer? I mean, there is still 3days left, is it better to wait? I guess you would have to give L-1 time to claim and if he claims, you would need time to discuss claim and form a wagon on another player.
What about early lynch? I would say it doesn't benefit town, but what if someone claims and another counterclaims. Is it ok to go for an early lynch than?

@xwing, this is silk specter from watchmen, and she is not getting tortured, so suggestion denied

[xwing]

you can use the post tags (ignore the white spaces)
[ post]171][ /post]
171

for d1 lynch, i would like to have intent to hammer right about now or even a bit earlier, so when the person claims, we still have time to discuss instead of scrambling at the last minute..

best result is to lynch scum d1, but im still fine with a mislynch, really..it's better than not lynching at all..lots of people have given the number breakdown, i just believe it coz logically we're making the pool of players smaller, so it's easier to do a process of elimination (PoE)..

for early lynch, im not sure, will let the more experienced players answer..

@munch: that rejection stung!

[Komodo]

I like Munch so far but this post makes me lose confidence in her as town

Regardless if you agree or disagree with her analysis

Do you think it is town motivated or scum motivated?

I'm going to go with town motivation for now because I like almost everything else she's said and I'd rather see what happens now vs doing mafia probability. I do think it's something that should be brought up early next day but it's nothing to push now without seeing what happens regarding Sal's potential lynch and the aftermath. With how close we are to finding out what will happen I'm going to put a pin in it.

I saw that she responded to what I said but my head hurts too much to fully analyse it so I'm going to wait until I wake up to do that x.x

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, this is about a good time to say your intent to hammer. Generally if you plan on having your vote on said person, and you’re ready to end the day, but you want people to get their last words in before you officially hammer.

Basically, when you’re ready for people to say their last words to convince or dissuade otherwise.