Newbie 1907 - game over!!

[u r a person 2]

oh i missed one

I don't think the urist wagon was inevitable when it was at l-2 with over a day left on the deadline. For instance, if elements had instead voted for me, we would have had two l-2 wagons and then who is to say what would have happened?

[u r a person 2]

or maybe not l-2 on my wagon, im not 100% sure on the votes but we had time and l-2 is a long way from a lynch

[u r a person 2]

Sorry it was Dong that elements could have put at l-2 along with urist. not me. point still stands

vote count 1.18

foodcoats

(0)

L-5

:

YyottaCat

(1)

L-4

: Elements

Elements

(0)

L-5

:

Nauci

(0)

L-5

:

u r a person 2

(1)

L-4

: sheepsaysmeep

PvtUrist

(3)

L-2

: u r a person 2, GuiltyLion, Dongempire

sheepsaysmeep

(0)

L-5

:

Dongempire

(2)

L-3

: foodcoats, YyottaCat

GuiltyLion

(0)

L-5

:

not voting

: Nauci, PvtUrist

This phase will end in (expired on 2018-12-29 16:30:00) or sooner if a majority lynch is achieved.

mod notes:

- quack

reading this vote count

Spoiler:

the worst

¹ (2)²

L-3

³ : PenguinPower, a goose<sup>4

1</sup> the player who this line of the vote count refers to.
² the number of votes currently on this player.
³ the number of votes this player is away from being lynched (e.g. L-5 = 5 votes from a lynch; L-3 = 3 votes away from a lynch; L-1 = one vote away from a lynch, etc.)
⁴ list of the players who are voting the player in question.

[Nauci]

if elements is scum, then his messing up his reads was a scum slip. there was a lot of discussion on this, so I think you should probably know about it?

Are you saying that he couldn't be scum because he was too scummy?

[u r a person 2]

no im not saying that at all

[Elements]

6 town, 1 mafia
Possible Roles left and my thoughts:

Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Neapolitan, Vanilla Townie x 4

Best case scenario; we have 4 confirmed town, one each from the investigative roles and the roles themselves. This leaves 3 people left. One we lynch today, the others are investigated in the night, lynch the maifia on the third day. Possibly good time to reveal
Worst case scenario; both invested sheep then only 2 known town, gives us 5 to work from. Lynch one today, learn a new good person tomorrow as the cost of a known town. 2 lynches and 2 night kills later we have 1 confirmed town but no invest roles anymore. Revealing doesn't seem optimal.
Middle scenario; 1 invested sheep/both invested the same person. We know 3 confirmed town, 4 to lynch from, lynch one today, confirm one tonight, lynch another one tomorrow, one of the ones not investigated, and if we haven't found them yet kill the final one who will be the mafia on the last day. Possibly good time to reveal.
My overall thoughts: If you are the town Neapolitan reveal if you can confirm someone.

Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 4

Best case scenario: Jailkepeper can confirm one other person. We have 2 confirmed town without doctor reveal, 3 with. Jailkeeper can reveal and clear one person today. Because of the doctor they can keep doing this every day until the doctor is killed.
Worst case: Jailed the doctor last night. Same as the first case except the doctor can't reveal to give a bigger base of confirmed town.
My overall thoughts: Jailkeeper reveal and confirm whoever they jailed, Doctor don't reveal and protect them constantly.

Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 4

Same as the Jailkeeper scenario unless sheep was investigated. If sheep wasn't investigated it's the same train of thought.
My overall thoughts: same as above


At this point I think any out of Cop, Neopolitan, Jailor should reveal themselves with their information, if they have any, so we can close this game quickly and concisely. Also, if you are a cop and a neoplitan reveals or vise versa reveal yourself so you don't get investigated.

Before anyone reveals discuss

[Donempire]

elements put pvturist to l-1. in a world where they are scum partners, i think it is unlikely he does this

you clearly aren't urist's partner.

gl i read as town, and he was also on the wagon and made urist lynch sound inevitable when urist was l-1

yyotta hammered urist

that leaves nauci and foodcoats

No one should claim right now. Calm down right now. If pr have anything to say, they will say it anyways. Stop fishing, it doesnt make you look any better.

[Donempire]

Didnt mean to quote person there, sorry
was responding to elements

[Elements]

why are you so adamant about this

[Elements]

i can't see any way it won't garentee us the win from my logic

[Donempire]

elements put pvturist to l-1. in a world where they are scum partners, i think it is unlikely he does this

you clearly aren't urist's partner.

gl i read as town, and he was also on the wagon and made urist lynch sound inevitable when urist was l-1

yyotta hammered urist

that leaves nauci and foodcoats

Element had to put urist at l-1 or a lot of suspicion would be directed on his part. I doubt it proves anything.

Same deal with yyotta, her instant hammer is NAI. My read on her hasnt changed, if anything, it has gone further down since we cant analyze the wagon. The only thing about the instant hammer is that urist didnt get to pr fish, which i suppose is pretty good in retrospect but thats about it.

FC was also pretty active and contributing to discussion, even if he hadnt joined in urist's wagon. I dont think i can blame him for this, since it happened overnight even for me.

elements put pvturist to l-1. in a world where they are scum partners, i think it is unlikely he does this

you clearly aren't urist's partner.

gl i read as town, and he was also on the wagon and made urist lynch sound inevitable when urist was l-1

yyotta hammered urist

that leaves nauci and foodcoats

Actually, scum very often join wagons on scum that seem like they're inevitable, but at a middle position, like 3rd or 4th

They frequently even hammer, and especially so to decrease the amount of suspicion/associations/etc.

Vote count analysis is a useful skill but also not the full picture, IMO.

This exactly. Thanks nauri

If anything, i think this clears nauri and foodcoats as they didnt try to gain towncred by hammering and or joining at the last moment, which in turn makes me extra suspicious of yyotta and elements.

[Donempire]

i can't see any way it won't garentee us the win from my logic

I still dont want pr revealrd at such an early date. I'm sure they'll come out if they have any good results anyway

[foodcoats]

PvtUrist was lynched.
He was a.........

MAFIA ROLEBLOCKER

Nice!!! Well done, team.

I'd like to reiterate what Dong said about PRs: unless I am mistaken, there is absolutely no reason to claim right now unless someone can make a hard investigative claim that'll win it for us today. Elements, why do you think PR claiming/mass claiming is good for us today?

Also, right now I think we can pretty confidently town-clear Dong. Urist's final post was devoted to trying to run up the Dong wagon. Unless a Dong-Urist scumteam was super confident they could send Dong deep by scum-on-scum bussing there, I just don't see that play ever happening. Dong being on the L-2 had me a little suspicious in my first re-read of the vote, but I just don't ever see the scum team playing that way. Also after doing some reading over the night phase I'm a lot more confident in a town-read of Dong in ISO.

[foodcoats]

elements: scum!elements would have already scum slippedi by this point in the game. It doesn't make sense to me that he would think his best course of action is to bus his partner here. urist was in no way inevitable when he put him to l-1

I actually really disagree with this. Elements' defensiveness throughout his wagon forced me to re-evaluate my original townread a bit, but I think this is one of the scummiest plays by Elements so far:

seeing as my vote on yyotta isn't going anywhere and the wagons are just on Pvt and dong

PvtUrist

as i townread dong significantly more due to their intense analysis on Pvt having made very much sense and it having swayed me to their line of thought

I think this can be a fine vote for town!Elements, but the lack of any added reasoning makes me think that this can also definitely be a bus. This put Urist at L-1 - which Elements did not mention - and could've been a pretext for Urist to false claim and draw a counterclaim for scum!Elements to get a good NK.

VOTE: Elements

[Elements]

For my first post of today TLDR:

Unless the investigative role/roles we have (jailkeeper included) havn't found and town (impossible for the jailkeeper) we can win through claiming and information whitling it down to 4 unconfirmed people who we can lynch and investigate today, tonight and tomorrow ending the game by, at the longest, day 4

[foodcoats]

Welcome Nauci!

What do you think it was about Scantius that got him scumread? Why are you not scum?

Hi!

1: haven't caught up yet; don't know

2: my role pm says I'm town

Nauci, let's play a game... if you

had

voted, who would you have voted for?

[foodcoats]

I think it's reasonable to assume that the other scum is one of Urist's town or null reads here (Urist was at L-4 I think), and Yyotta's hammer made me even more convinced that she's town. Urist is particularly positive about Elements and URAP2 as town.

Here you go;
{Urist}
{Elements, FC, urap2, GL}
{Yyotta, nauci}
{doge, sheep}

Spoiler:

Elements; frequent genuine questions that benefits town. Tried and pressured makes him lean-town for me even more.

FC; semi-active, adequent posts. Though not enough interactions with him by anyone to clear him.

URAP2; contributes well with his questions and posts. No issues here.

GL; enthusiastic town or powerwolf. Could be genuine, but ICs are scary.

Yyotta; meta reads tells me she's more town than scum (more active as town than scum). Bottom lines policy lynch.

nauci; Scantius was more lurk than scum for me. Null-town, too much cuteness for me to trust yet.

sheep; provides questions but mainly his own reads. Somewhat passive.

doge; has been passive, but it could just be the holidays/sickness.

[Donempire]

I think we win if we go the elements-yyotta route for now, is there any other ideas? Objections?

[Elements]

i have a vague objection, I'm town

[Donempire]

Well, you still win if we end up lynching scum. If you have anything in mind, im listening. Apart from pr fishing, which i dont think we should do until at least D3

[u r a person 2]

I think we win if we go the elements-yyotta route for now, is there any other ideas? Objections?

im going to drive today for basically forever. like 18 hours or something, so im not going to be around. I really, really think you're wrong about this. elements and yyotta are both town there the vast majority of the time.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think Elements is a good lynch today, I think he's town. Elements you're generally not wrong about claiming, and you're absolutely right about a Neap claiming useful info being the right play and good odds of lock winning the game right now, but I think the risk of Cop confirming Neap/Doc or JK confirming Doc makes it not worth it for those roles to claim today. Those roles should just make sure they crumb any useful results in a deducible manner in case they die tonight.

I want to push back on all these Yyotta townreads. The only real argument I've seen in her defense is that her established meta is being more active = town, I don't think this is a very compelling point. and I still think her associatives with Urist fit the mold of scum-scum, I'll go into those in more depth in a second.

URAP2 and foodcoats - why does hammering scum at L-1 mean Yyotta is town? Considering that there was about a day left until deadline and there were no other wagons at L-2 or L-1.

Nauci - why are you townreading Yyotta?

[GuiltyLion]

@Yyotta nice to see you interacting with us more this time around. How do you currently feel about URAP2 and Scantius (St)?

This is the first interaction between the two. PvtUrist is asking a really safe question here - 'how do you feel about these two slots?'. It's a way for Yyotta to participate without feeling any pressure. Plus, Yyotta had already been voting and pressuring Scantius, so it's not like there was no information on her read on him. This is exactly the kind of question I would think newbie scum would ask a buddy to build interaction/rapport.

Then PvtUrist has Yyotta at the bottom of his readslist:

{Urist}
{Elements, FC, Doge}
{St, GL, sheep}
{URAP2, Yyotta}

and gives her this:

Yyotta; for a start, you're a lot more active since the last time we played together, so that's an improvement. I'm having a hard time grasping at your intentions in your posts, so maybe ask us a few questions? My best impression of you is when you asked me that question at the beginning of 1905, so maybe you can find something through that.

this reads to me like an attempt at coaching, almost like he

wants

to townread her. She's also the only person he singles out with direct engagement like this, the rest of the players he just gives reads on. Yet there's no pressure/questioning here, and despite his scumread he doesn't vote her.

Current reads that I somehow managed to get:
Strong Town:
Town:
Townlean: URAP2, PvtUrist
Null-Town: Scantius
Null: Sheep
Null-Scum: element
Scumlean: Dog
Scum:
Strong Scum:

Yyotta then townreads Urist with no real interaction despite him claiming to scumread her

RIP this game to the holidays.

let's just wait for lots of prods tomorrow

at this point I may be confbiasing/tunneling, but who is "us" in Yyotta's post? URAP2 already made (correct) points about 266 being scum mindset, does that not apply to 268 as well?

There's no real significant interaction between the two outside of this. If you dual ISO them you see they never vote eachother (despite Yyotta being all over the place with votes), never really pressure eachother, take both sides on Elements (which is textbook scum maneuvering if Elements is town) and disagree with eachother without drawing anything AI out of it.

I also find this post from Yyota notably scummy in isolation:

Seems like Elements is going to place GL at the top now. He's so excited about GL's vote

Elements already called this out in 301 but this is shade for the sake of shade (there's nothing scummy about being excited when someone votes with you, or townreading someone for voting along with you on your main scumread) AND it's done really disingenuously where it's framing Elements read

before he had even given updated reads

.

Plus, there's all the end of D1 "woe is me I'm the d2 lynch" stuff on top. I don't really see any reason to be townreading this slot.

[GuiltyLion]

also there's the POE argument -

Dong and URAP2 are obvious town after yesterday's wagon/flip (in addition to their townie play throughout)

foodcoats I'm still townreading for his play (though not quite on the locktown tier of Dong/URAP2 - there's like 10% chance he's fairly good tryhard scum, but I only say this due to his reads more than anything else).

Nauci has also been going against the consensus/grain with her reads, which maaayyyy be scum but in her case I'm inclined to townread it? I also think if Nauci were scum she would have done a lot more to improve her standing yesterday if she thought PvtUrist was going down. She also didn't seem to have read the Elements "scumslip" in 373 which suggests to me she still hasn't fully caught up which I find town as scum should absolutely be read up by this point.

Elements did have the weird narrative mistake, but other than that he seems very town oriented with all his questions/pushes, plus I give him points because I agree with him on Yyotta.

which leaves Yyotta.

[Donempire]

I think i got this figured out. Since Urist's readslist is not recent and it came from when he wasnt pressured at all i think its safe to say its and not a distraction. So with that in mind, i think a Yyotta-Elements-Nauci lynch order is

guarenteed

to win us the game. Here's the reasoning:

Elements:

My main reasoning with him is how adamantly urist townread him, mostly on weak points and based on bad reasoning. I think he just wanted to have a reason to townread him, and i cant find any reason except that elements is his scumpartner. Since he kept reading him as townie even before he was under suspicion, i dont think this is a stunt he pulled. However i still dont believe he is more suspicious than...

Yyotta:

She was acting unnaturally suspicious the whole game anyways, and i figure the reason she hammered out of nowhere was because she knew urist was scum, he was going to get lynched, so she decided to hammer him to get whatever towncred she could get from this. Makes me scumread her even more, and want to lynch her even more as well.

Nauci:

I definitely dont scumread this spot, and given how the game progressed, i am pretty much certain we will get the scum done with after these two lynches. However if they miraculously end up not being scum, by process of elimination nauci has to be scum. Still, i dont think we will get to this point anyways.

P:edit yeah of course im down for a yyotta lynch, sign me up
VOTE: YyottaCat