Newbie 1910: Aerial Photography [Game Over!]

[GrandWazoo]

Alright I'll talk you through what's on my mind. You're tied for 2nd highest poster at the time of writing so I feel like I should be feeling more comfortable about my read of you.

I had a cursory read of your last game and noticed a couple of differences, which made me curious.

firstly, you have less of a uhh approachable/flexible tone here. in your other game I got the feeling you engaged pretty well with the rest of the list, though I agree your playstyle is naturally inquisitive/somewhat prickly. some of your posts like this

Ok so i guess my post didnt go through. Aww.

Can we get some more votes on this tool?

here feel kind of faked-aggressive which pinged me to think about later.

Well that game was moving along much more briskly, plus we had a guy who replaced in who was doing the "heavy lifting" and was more aggressive in that game than I am in this one.

Yes, that was somewhat feigned reaction to moony but it (and his followup to you) was quite scummy to me.

Given your approach to YellowSnow in your last game, I'm slightly surprised to see you haven't made any comments on Junko's more recent posting which I think is pretty newbtown-indicative. Do you agree here?

Yes. My view on yellow evolved that game from newbscum to newbtown, which is why I didn't opportunistically jump on his wagon there and don't scumread Junko here.

From your ISO it felt as though you were casting kinda slight suspicions there, without doubling down wrt voting, and I was surprised to see you didn't reevaluate your own read on her after she started posting more.

Not sure what suspicion-casting you're referring to? If you mean my asking why she was still playing newbie games, I was curious and she answered satisfactorily.

I agree he's wolfy but unfortunately pushes like yours against Moony make you harder to read. there's a cliche that "scum push low hanging fruit", but I wholeheartedly disagree that this is a reliable tell. town push scummy low hanging fruit just as often as scum push unaligned low hanging fruit. if like, Moony is suddenly confirmed as town or something, I'd be really curious to see where you go next.

Now here's where that other game might be instructive. I tenaciously kept my vote on Flippynips even as micc chainsawed away. I didn't have a read on Flippy either way but the fact that micc alone was defending an obvious activelurker spoke volumes to me.

I really don't see moony getting confirmed town. My hope at this point is that he's replaced by a more engaged player.

having said that I don't think I'm actually convincing myself to scumread you. more like I'm seeing unexpected quirks in your play, and I'm curious to get inside your head a little bit more. it's intriguing to hear that you don't think this is all that different from your last game.

Again, every game is different, and I tend to adapt my playstyle to the occasion. In that game we had at least 3 players reach L-1 on the first day. Here we can't even get a proper wagon rolling. And you don't want to see what's inside my head brah. It's nasty in there.

[the worst]

nah yeah 150 is a good post. I think I understand your approach to this game a little better now. I can go back thru your ISO and dig up the comments wrt Junko which made me feel like you were positioning a little if it'll help but I think I can feel your brain a little bit better now.

[the worst]

{tw}
{YellowSnow}
{cjv, junko, GrandWazoo}
{computerfan0, GuiltyLion}
{Moony, Nineja}

I'm probably roughly here at the moment.

@GL if you're town I'm sorry to do this to you but I don't think our real-time just now was super productive (probably my fault for prompting it when there wasn't really a juicy convereation going on; but y'know). also I feel like we're not seeing super eye to eye on a couple of the deeper reads which I was hoping we might. this definitely feels divergent from the scumgame I saw recently but it's also very different from the last time we were both town if that makes sense?

either way I feel like you're a fairly bad d1 lynch and if you're town I think you'll be more sortableful later on.

[the worst]

crossing my little tiny webbed toes that YellowSnow isn't scum here. if he is he's somehow read my mind and worked out exactly how to fit me in his pocket.

[GrandWazoo]

I definitely think his push on Moony at the expense of pushing other slots has been a little vexing

If you're saying I'm tunneling a dry well, you maybe right. If there were more obvious lynch candidates I'd be pushing them. For now I'll stick with the player who is either scum or useless to town. That's still moony.

I'll add that I don't consider it my obligation to look town as hell here, it's to win the game. If being an aggro prick helps me reach my wincon, great. If that means being more passive and letting other players work it out, that's fine too. If I'm lynched or NKd and that provides valuable intel to town, I have no problem with that either.

[the worst]

crossing my little tiny webbed toes that YellowSnow isn't scum here. if he is he's somehow read my mind and worked out exactly how to fit me in his pocket.

this might apply to you as well GW

[GrandWazoo]

You think too much of me kid - I ain't that clever.

[northsidegal]

VC 1.05

votes

[3] moonythedwarf

:

GrandWazoo 9, GuiltyLion 18, the worst 21

[2] GrandWazoo

:

computerfan0 87, JunkoChan 131

[1] JunkoChan

:

YellowSnow 47

[1] Nineja

:

ceejayvinoya 19

[2] Not Voting

:

moonythedwarf 82, Nineja 124

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

The Day 1 deadline is in

: (expired on 2019-01-07 04:02:59)

Mod Notes

: Replacing moonythedwarf and ceejayvinoya.
Hope you all had nice holidays!

[computerfan0]

I have no idea who's Mafia or Townie. The only one I'm certain of is me, but I'm not telling...

[the worst]

computerfan, what's your strongest feeling about who's mafia or town so far?

[YellowSnow]

VOTE: computerfan0

maybe that will inspire computerfan0 to think about it more.

[the worst]

I'm actually a little more comfortable sitting on Moony for the replacement for now. if computerfan0 sticks to this line of play tho there's definitely a world where we have no option but to lynch there.

thoughts on Nineja & my spicy take there?

[Nineja]

could you give me a quick summary of your reads? (a tiered readlist would be perfect, otherwise just talk me through your current takes)

GrandWazoo / The Worst > computerfan0 > GuiltyLion > cjv > junko > YellowSnow > Moony

This is scummiest to towniest btw, I'll explain what I havent already stated before but if I miss something or someone wants more info on a read, you'll have to give me a day as I prob won't be active all of today besides rn and most of tomorrow I just got hit with some big projects in school that I need to get done now

compterfan0: never answered my question went quiet though this could just be noobie slot not knowing what to do still find his lynch on me came at a weird time which id why i asked the question and wanted the answer

yellow: seems to be helping town, good contributer,

[northsidegal]

YyottaCat replaces moonythedwarf.

brassherald replaces ceejayvinoya.

[brassherald]

Yo! What up?

[brassherald]

Oh, also, UNVOTE: I read Ceejay's posts, saw that I had no way to really know what alignment this was and took a shot at getting my coveted town role.

Now that I know that I'm for realz townz, I'm actually going to read after work tonight.

[the worst]

YO BRASS! man I've missed playing with you. good to have you back. If I'm around when you catch up yell out if you wanna jam about some stuff.

[the worst]

could you give me a quick summary of your reads? (a tiered readlist would be perfect, otherwise just talk me through your current takes)

GrandWazoo / The Worst > computerfan0 > GuiltyLion > cjv > junko > YellowSnow > Moony

This is scummiest to towniest btw

re. needing more time - that's fine. do what you can, the EoD is pretty close though.

I'm guessing you think the scumteam is me/GW basically? if not that's fine, saying two scum are in {tw, gw, cf0} and not knowing where to hone in is valid.

why aren't you voting myself or gw if you think we're scum? like the gamestate is orienting towards more people townreading both of us (esp. GW) so I'm surprised you don't feel the need to vote anyone?

why are you hard townreading Moony? => why YellowSnow over Junko? I have opinions as well obviously but I'm interested in seeing your mindset.

[brassherald]

I think that moony might be town and 1 mafia is on the wagon pushing for an easy day 1 lynch GL is null to me rn so its 50/50 between Worst and GW.

What's making you think Moony might be town?

because I feel this is a scum lynching an easy day 1 lynch so Moony is probably town, I'm not saying he can't be scum, but this lynch looks a little too sus for me it just feels like atleast 1 scum is on this lynch. To answer your 2nd post (mobile sucks so i cant quote) GL can still be scum thats true however I personally find you 2 scummier and think the scum is more likely between you 2. I think GL should talk more though, would like more from them. I unlynched without lynching because I wanted to see your answer to my question first (about the JunkoChan read) before I lynched between you or GW.

While I understand the concept that you would like to avoid a town lynch on day 1, it is objectively better for town to lynch a town player than to no lynch. There's math somewhere in mafia discussion, but, let's be honest, I don't have the link after my extended sabbatical, and I don't feel like looking it up.

I guess you can trust me or you can search.

Or not trust me and be objectively wrong.

[brassherald]

{tw}
{YellowSnow}
{cjv, junko, GrandWazoo}
{computerfan0, GuiltyLion}
{Moony, Nineja}

Why is junko so high? And Nineja so low?

You might have had reasoning underneath this, but I didn't read it.

[the worst]

I probably should have spoken up earlier yeah -- I agree entirely with brassherald.

These types of games (9p, one kill per day (lynch), one kill per night (mafia nightkill)), work perfectly on the assumption that we lynch each day. mislynching day one actually offers a higher chance of winning than not lynching d1, if I recall correctly. if you're interested I can crunch the numbers.

but it's somewhat beneficial for town to work in odd numbers (9p => lynch & nk => 7p => lynch & nk => 5p, etc.)

[brassherald]

I probably should have spoken up earlier yeah -- I agree entirely with brassherald.

These types of games (9p, one kill per day (lynch), one kill per night (mafia nightkill)), work perfectly on the assumption that we lynch each day. mislynching day one actually offers a higher chance of winning than not lynching d1, if I recall correctly. if you're interested I can crunch the numbers.

but it's somewhat beneficial for town to work in odd numbers (9p => lynch & nk => 7p => lynch & nk => 5p, etc.)

It has something to do with lowering the amount of votes needed for a lynch, because in setups like this where no vigilante exists, the only way to kill mafia is to lynch.

[brassherald]

Also, reads do, of course, generally improve over the course of the game.

[the worst]

{tw}
{YellowSnow}
{cjv, junko, GrandWazoo}
{computerfan0, GuiltyLion}
{Moony, Nineja}

Why is junko so high? And Nineja so low?

You might have had reasoning underneath this, but I didn't read it.

I didn't explain it, I'm glad you asked (and I already get the feeling my ceejayvinoya townread was on point). I liked her reaction to pressure, and I think her reasoning roughly aligns with the way she approaches the game as town--i had the benefit of following her last newbie game about a year ago at the time and heavily scumreading her until she was lynched and flipped town.

I need to like, go through and check specific posts here against her posting there before it's a heavy townread. but I vividly remember her being extremely lynchbaity and I've enjoyed the thought process that I can see here.

Nineja I think is pretty wolfy. Let me know when you're fully caught up, I'd appreciate a reality check here.

[the worst]

off the top of my head I wanna say town voting first in 3p LyLo = 25% chance of a town win (they need to vote correctly & the other townie needs to vote correctly). 4p MyLo is substantially lower. I don't wanna get too far into maths spam tho