Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!

[dcorbe]

Actually, the SK would still have a slim chance of victory if he claimed now (see my earlier post). dcorbe should get a chance to claim SK if that's what he is, otherwise I'm thinking this wagon is probably going to end in his lynch. To be clear: the town categorically does not want to lynch the SK today.

I think that the makeup of the wagon may have something to with activity, though that doesn't completely explain it.

I've already claimed. If I go back on my word and claim "SK" all that does is provide even more ammunition for my aggressors to sit back and say "that's a scummy move" and lynch me.

I'm walking on egg shells with spiked shoes here

[vollkan]

Actually, the SK would still have a slim chance of victory if he claimed now (see my earlier post). dcorbe should get a chance to claim SK if that's what he is, otherwise I'm thinking this wagon is probably going to end in his lynch. To be clear: the town categorically does not want to lynch the SK today.

I think that the makeup of the wagon may have something to with activity, though that doesn't completely explain it.

I've already claimed. If I go back on my word and claim "SK" all that does is provide even more ammunition for my aggressors to sit back and say "that's a scummy move" and lynch me.

I'm walking on egg shells with spiked shoes here

You're inexperienced at this game, which would explain the gross error in your post here.

First off, if you are town you absolutely should not claim SK under any circumstances. Let me stress that firmly. The reasons for this are related to my other 'reasons' that, as before, I would prefer not to have to reveal in thread.

That said, if you are SK then claiming SK most definitely will

not

result in your lynch. Maybe it's because you lack experience, but the reason for this should be

pretty obvious

. To give you some idea as to why I am advocating this: SK claiming will cause both the SK's chances of success to elevate, the town's chances to elevant, and the mafia's chances to plummet.

[armlx]

Actually, the SK would still have a slim chance of victory if he claimed now (see my earlier post). dcorbe should get a chance to claim SK if that's what he is, otherwise I'm thinking this wagon is probably going to end in his lynch. To be clear: the town categorically does not want to lynch the SK today.

I think that the makeup of the wagon may have something to with activity, though that doesn't completely explain it.

I've already claimed. If I go back on my word and claim "SK" all that does is provide even more ammunition for my aggressors to sit back and say "that's a scummy move" and lynch me.

I'm walking on egg shells with spiked shoes here

You're inexperienced at this game, which would explain the gross error in your post here.

First off, if you are town you absolutely should not claim SK under any circumstances. Let me stress that firmly. The reasons for this are related to my other 'reasons' that, as before, I would prefer not to have to reveal in thread.

That said, if you are SK then claiming SK most definitely will

not

result in your lynch. Maybe it's because you lack experience, but the reason for this should be

pretty obvious

. To give you some idea as to why I am advocating this: SK claiming will cause both the SK's chances of success to elevate, the town's chances to elevant, and the mafia's chances to plummet.

I will confirm these are all sound strategical arguments.

[LaptopGun]

Claim now, dcrobe.

Shteven brings up an interesting point about who is on dcorbe's wagon, but it is not exactly clear cut. This is the vote count for day 2. Compare Kab's wagon to the wagon on dcorbe. Notice anything:
kabenon007 - 8 (vollkan, Justin Playfair, Oman, MelodyMan23, MadCrawdad, somestrangeflea, Jesse Gunn, Spacecase)
MelodyMan23 - 3 (Rigel, Phate, farside22)
Rigel - 1 (kabenon007)
Phate- 1 (Shteven)

Not voting - 2 (LaptopGun, The Fonz) (Fonz had voted for Kab after he got hammered).

A wagon may look scum driven even when power-role townies are on it.

[iamausername]

kabenon007 - 8 (vollkan, Justin Playfair,

Oman, MelodyMan23

, MadCrawdad,

somestrangeflea

, Jesse Gunn,

Spacecase

)

It also looks scum-driven when scum are on it, and there's at least two of them here.

[dcorbe]

Actually, the SK would still have a slim chance of victory if he claimed now (see my earlier post). dcorbe should get a chance to claim SK if that's what he is, otherwise I'm thinking this wagon is probably going to end in his lynch. To be clear: the town categorically does not want to lynch the SK today.

I think that the makeup of the wagon may have something to with activity, though that doesn't completely explain it.

I've already claimed. If I go back on my word and claim "SK" all that does is provide even more ammunition for my aggressors to sit back and say "that's a scummy move" and lynch me.

I'm walking on egg shells with spiked shoes here

You're inexperienced at this game, which would explain the gross error in your post here.

First off, if you are town you absolutely should not claim SK under any circumstances. Let me stress that firmly. The reasons for this are related to my other 'reasons' that, as before, I would prefer not to have to reveal in thread.

That said, if you are SK then claiming SK most definitely will

not

result in your lynch. Maybe it's because you lack experience, but the reason for this should be

pretty obvious

. To give you some idea as to why I am advocating this: SK claiming will cause both the SK's chances of success to elevate, the town's chances to elevant, and the mafia's chances to plummet.

All excellent points here. I see how this could be logical.

I did falsely claim my role initially for a couple of reasons.

1) I wasn't sure if it was proper to ever claim your role under any circumstances. I figured that sort of defeats the purpose of the game. It does sound a little bit like a cheat to a total noob.

2) I didn't want to be lynched, so I figured claiming a pro-town role was my only shot.

Claim: SK

[vollkan]

Claim: SK

Dcorbe, you may be interested (and probably very pissed off) to know that everything I have been saying about it being good for the SK to claim was complete and utter bullshit. I laid a trap, and you fell right into it.

I am sure that you are not town now, since I expressly told you not to claim SK as town. Which means that you are either town, or mafia. Either way, I want you dead. NOW.

With my might hammer, I smite thee:

Vote: dcorbe

[-TinVision-]

Fifth Vote Count of the Day

dcorbe (5) -

iamausername, armlx, The Fonz, dahill1, vollkan

Not voting (5) -

Cipher, LaptopGun, dcorbe, Rigel, Shteven

With 10 alive, it is 6 to lynch.

I am still seeking replacement for Rigel.

[dcorbe]

Claim: SK

Dcorbe, you may be interested (and probably very pissed off) to know that everything I have been saying about it being good for the SK to claim was complete and utter bullshit. I laid a trap, and you fell right into it.

I am sure that you are not town now, since I expressly told you not to claim SK as town. Which means that you are either town, or mafia. Either way, I want you dead. NOW.

With my might hammer, I smite thee:

Vote: dcorbe

How do you know I'm not lying about that, too?

[dcorbe]

Nice. I think I'm actually managing to get myself lynched FASTER.

[dcorbe]

Vote: The Fonz

for not saying anything since I replaced into this game.

[The Fonz]

Vote: The Fonz

for not saying anything since I replaced into this game.

Please see post 910. And Fonz's post 908, and everything else. Deflection to your aggressors is not your out here, sorry scum.

It seems to me vollkan and armlx have done just fine at stringing you up by your own petard, scum.

[Shteven]

Some recent posts have really alarmed me.

It seems to me vollkan and armlx have done just fine at stringing you up by your own petard, scum.

And who benefits the most by killing the SK? The mafia. You have also completely ignored dcorbe's valid point of your own inactivity. You haven't posted for days, yet manage to post 30 minutes after being accused of it?

The Fonz's last post was 8 days ago prior to this one, and it was his large case against oman(dcorbe). He's already voted and now wants the lynch to happen without pushing it further? You're still ok with lynching the SK? I'd say that's a pretty dramatic change that

should warrant a comment from everyone voting for the wagon, and if they still want to be on the wagon. This information changes things.

It seems The Fonz just wants to brush it under the rug. I'll say this much though, at least it's less likely The Fonz is our SK, something his skilled lurking had suggested to me in the past.

Shteven brings up an interesting point about who is on dcorbe's wagon, but it is not exactly clear cut. This is the vote count for day 2. Compare Kab's wagon to the wagon on dcorbe. Notice anything:
kabenon007 - 8 (vollkan, Justin Playfair, Oman, MelodyMan23, MadCrawdad, somestrangeflea, Jesse Gunn, Spacecase)

I notice it has almost nothing in common with today's wagon. It was started by someone who's the claimed mason. Next on it is a confirmed cop. Then the suspicious people start to join it, and it alternates down the line. This was started by town, then aided by scum. That's the most common way to lynch a town, the scum throw their support behind a town-started lynch that they know is a bad lynch.

Today's wagon was started by suspicious people, and seems to be composed entirely of them. I think scum are trying to push for the easy lynch. It should also be noted that for the entire day 2 I was repeatedly against the kabenon wagon and did not think he was scum. I was briefly on today's wagon, but now I feel it's being rushed.

I also really liked how you started the post with:

Claim now, dcrobe.

He already had. Of course, he's claimed again now, and this time SK.

I don't think we should lynch him if he's the SK, which I think is probably true. He'll be killed off by the mafia, and has a decent chance of hitting mafia with his kill. Of course, if we do succeed in lynching a member of the mafia today, then that's going to hurt his chances of killing mafia, but look at the number of townies who are going to be killed tonight:

Lynch the SK:

mafia kills a town role.
7 alive, 2 scum.

Lynch Anyone else:

Lynch town.
Mafia will kill the SK
SK will kill either a town role, or the mafia.
6 alive, 2 mafia; or 6 alive 1 mafia.

Lynch Anyone else:

Lynch Mafia.
Mafia will kill the SK
SK will kill either a town role, or the mafia.
6 alive, 1 mafia; or town victory.

Lynching mafia has a much higher value than lynching the SK. Rushing this choice through isn't in the best interests of the town. I'd like to hear more opinions on this before we lynch.

With my might hammer, I smite thee:

Not quite as mighty as you might have been thinking I'd be interested in your responses, Vollkan.

@Dcorbe Your biggest threat is the mafia, although honestly, and as I've stated before, the SK has very little chance of winning at this point. But do me a favor and aim for any of the suspicious players. I'll re-list them here:

Pool of unknowns:
The Fonz
LoudmouthLee (now armlx)
Oman(now dcorbe, but I don't think you should shoot yourself)
Shteven
dahill1
iamausername

[iamausername]

I don't think we should lynch him if he's the SK, which I think is probably true. He'll be killed off by the mafia, and has a decent chance of hitting mafia with his kill. Of course, if we do succeed in lynching a member of the mafia today, then that's going to hurt his chances of killing mafia, but look at the number of townies who are going to be killed tonight:

Lynch the SK:

mafia kills a town role.
7 alive, 2 scum.

Lynch Anyone else:

Lynch town.
Mafia will kill the SK
SK will kill either a town role, or the mafia.
6 alive, 2 mafia; or 6 alive 1 mafia.

Lynch Anyone else:

Lynch Mafia.
Mafia will kill the SK
SK will kill either a town role, or the mafia.
6 alive, 1 mafia; or town victory.

Lynching mafia has a much higher value than lynching the SK. Rushing this choice through isn't in the best interests of the town. I'd like to hear more opinions on this before we lynch.

Your numbers are off; there are ten alive right now, so the numbers of living players in each scenario need to go up by one.

And I think it's entirely possible that dcorbe is lying mafia, and I

really

don't think we should be blindly assuming that the mafia will kill him tonight if he is telling the truth.
One thing we can be pretty sure of is that dcorbe is NOT pro-town, and that seems like a pretty damn good reason to lynch him to me.

[Cipher]

Reasons to lynch the claimed SK:

1. You think he's lying and is really mafia.

2. You don't think that he can be trusted to act in his own best interests and shoot for scum tonight.

I haven't double checked the numbers, but what Shteven says above is basically correct. As I've said previously, the SK needs at least one of the mafia dead by Night 5 to avoid auto-lose. I also agree that Fonz's timing is somewhat suspect.

For various reasons, I'm not sure that I trust the claim, or trust dcorbe to fully commit to going after mafia tonight. As such, I'm considering dropping the hammer, but there's still discussion going on so I'll wait a little while longer before making that call.

[dahill1]

Dcorbe, you may be interested (and probably very pissed off) to know that everything I have been saying about it being good for the SK to claim was complete and utter bullshit. I laid a trap, and you fell right into it.

first of all, /praise vollkan. that was brilliant
also, i agree with cipher as to why we should lynch dcorbe today regardless. there is a very likely chance that he's a mafia and not the SK. furthermore, seeing his recent play, i would not trust him to not kill one of our confirmed towns.

[armlx]

Claim: SK

Dcorbe, you may be interested (and probably very pissed off) to know that everything I have been saying about it being good for the SK to claim was complete and utter bullshit. I laid a trap, and you fell right into it.

Actually, you accidentally made a good point. Its not like he wasn't going to be lynched today, so as SK it would be worth half a shot at everyone else punting the game to him. Of course, its equally likely to be what you are suggesting (a mafia ploy to live longer). Meh, was leaning Oman mafia as I actually saw solid connections to him, so vote stands.

Kabenon wagon needs to be examined really well, it was one of the dumbest parts of this game IMHO.

[dcorbe]

My original claim was townie. If I'm lying about this, then I'll probably be killed by either the SK or the Mob tonight.

I don't think iamausername's notion of my survivability if I DON'T get lynched right away flies. I'm likely to be killed by either the SK or the Mob tonight if I'm not mob. If I'm still alive tomorrow you've basically confirmed my role.

If I'm NOT lying about my original pro-town claim, we're all basically wasting a lynch at this point. and it potentially means that up to 2 more of us townies are going to die tonight. Do we really want to do that?

If I'm NOT lying about my SK Claim (and as Cipher and Stheven pointed out) I could potentially be in a position to help the town.

@dahill1: Who are the confirmed pro-town roles right now?

[dahill1]

My original claim was townie. If I'm lying about this, then I'll probably be killed by either the SK or the Mob tonight.

I don't think iamausername's notion of my survivability if I DON'T get lynched right away flies. I'm likely to be killed by either the SK or the Mob tonight if I'm not mob. If I'm still alive tomorrow you've basically confirmed my role.

If I'm NOT lying about my original pro-town claim, we're all basically wasting a lynch at this point. and it potentially means that up to 2 more of us townies are going to die tonight. Do we really want to do that?

If I'm NOT lying about my SK Claim (and as Cipher and Stheven pointed out) I could potentially be in a position to help the town.

@dahill1: Who are the confirmed pro-town roles right now?

if you claim SK, then why do you keep mentioning how you might get killed by the SK? slip? i'm thinking dcorbe is mafia fakeclaiming SK. our cop is basically confirmed. there is a very small chance he could be maf i think, but that is highly unlikely and i trust him. also, we have a claimed mason, and no counterclaims, so he is basically confirmed. why do you want to know the confirmeds?

[armlx]

Note: Just saying "he is confirmed anti-town" is not enough reason at this point to lynch him. The real reason is stalling on a claim + everything Oman did + stalling on reclaiming SK + Oman's connections all point to mafia over SK.

[Cipher]

I'm really not seeing dcorbe as a likely SK at this point. If he claimed truthfully he should be sticking with it and arguing on that basis. Also, I want to go out with a bang since I'm most likely going to be dead tonight.

=====[] Vote: dcorbe

[vollkan]

Here are the numbers quickly:
10 alive.
7 : 2 : 1
MafLynch = 7:1:1
-MafNK town = 6:1:1
--SKNK town = 5:1:1
--SK NK mafia = 6:0:1
SKLynch = 7:2
-MafNK town = 6:2

If we lynch mafia (and, dcorbe may very well be mafia, remember) then we are most likely at 5:1:1. If we lynch SK, we are (assuming no Power effects) at 6:2. I think 6:2 is much more preferable. All it takes is a single mislynch in 5:1:1 to place us in some very messy situations.

[-TinVision-]

Final Vote Count of the Day

dcorbe (6) -

iamausername, armlx, The Fonz, dahill1, vollkan, Cipher

Not voting (4) -

LaptopGun, dcorbe, Rigel, Shteven

After a brief but valiant struggle to save his life, dcorbe is walking spanish to the gallows. A hush falls over the crowd as they kick away the chair.

dcorbe, Mafioso

, is dead.

Night 4 has fallen. As we're nearing the end of the game, night action deadline will be in ~48 hours, or Thursday, 5pm EST.

[-TinVision-]

You open your eyes and blink. Wasn't it just dusk moments ago? Is it really morning? Stepping outside, you find that it is indeed morning. You also find the bullet-ridden corpse of

Cipher, Cop

. You don't find the corpse of

Rigel, Vanilla Townie

, at all, although his body parts keep turning up in the unlikeliest of places.

Hooray for prompt PMing of night choices! It is now Day 5. With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

[armlx]

Vote Username

for the Farside -> Oman connections + acting like Oman did.