Mini 2049: The Townsquare Game Over

[themilkcartonkid]

So basically I'm for either omo or la. Were getting a replacement for la, which could be advantageous for scum or town depending so idk.

[BuJaber]

How exactly does a lynch stop the vig from shooting?

I didn't say it does. What I'm saying is we are killing off townies and the Vig is shooting off scum. We are making the Vig's job a bit harder by pressuring them to be right every time because we have not been right once yet. Might as well apply a "follow the

Cop

Vig" kind of strategy so long as it's paying off.

Also, people have always advised me not to put too much thought about replacing out, and I always find it hard to ignore the timing and circumstances of a replace out.

Except that the vig, unless shooting randomly, is using information gained from lynch discussions, votes, wagons, and flips.

The cool thing about vig is that if he dies his action is not lost (as opposed to cop who has to hit a guilty and live to tell us). That means when there are less people alive the vig's chances of shooting correctly increase even if scum also have a higher chance of identifying them.

So I don't think we should be depending on the vig for our scum kills but even if you want to it is still better to lynch.

-BuJ

[DuckDuckJab]

^Oops. Was doing so well until that.

[Almost50]

FFS, I AM THE BLOODY VIG AND I HAVE THE BLOODY INFO I NEED!

First off, let me come clean: I lied about being a Commuter. I didn't know how to handle my "slip" otherwise. And yes, it was a slip indeed, just not a "scum slip".

My role is bizarre. I simply submit a list of 3 living players each night. If one (and exactly one) of them is Scum, they die and the scum kill is blocked. If none, 2 or all 3 are scum my action fails and the scum NK goes through.

On N1 I picked DDJ as a slot I hard TR'd. My 2nd choice would have been in Cheeky/Flubber/LA (as TRs), and Robert as the 3rd (the counterwagon to a flipped townie), and I decided to go for a Cheeky. If it ended up with someone else dying I would have assumed Robert was Town because DDJ was already all but confirmed in my eyes and Cheeky was close enough and was not on the lynch wagon on D1. I guess I was a bit lucky with Robert, thus confirming the other 2 as Town and from then on it was an easy job.

On N2 I was torn between 2 thoughts: Pick 3 others and see what happens (at best it could have confirmed 2 more townies, but at worst it could have resulted in mine or DDJ/Cheeky's death at the hands of the Mafia and I would have taken a step back rather than forward, so to speak). I picked the alternative of using my 2 confirmed townies with someone I suspected, so as to either kill scum or confirm a third townie 100%. I picked joges over milk.

N3 is going to be even easier. I am using DDJ+Cheeky+milk. Either milk dies or he is confirmed a townie.

The thing is if we hypothetically assume milk to be Town then we most probably lose a Townie tonight due to the Mafia kill. And now that I fully claimed I suspect that Townie would be me. This is partially why I didn't want to out, because as long as they thought I was a Commuter they would not have risked shooting me anyway, and especially so with the situation they're in. They simply cannot afford a failed NK.

The other reason was for fear they may have a Doctor or a roleblocker. *Sigh*

At first I thought NO WAY we have a JK with my role. Then it hit me: WHAT IF the game had went another route on D1 and I wasn't as lucky on N1? There would have been every chance that >I< would be the NK (the designer certainly didn't account for my "slip" resulting in me faking Commuter, did they?). If that was the case then would the Town be without an investigative/protective for the rest of the game? Because my role IS THE BLOODY INVESTIGATIVE, PROTECTIVE AND KILLING ROLE ALL IN ONE. That's why I didn't go for a milky lynch and decided it's better to verify him via my night action. It makes sense that a JK may exist as a backup for my role minus the killing part. Also the investigative part of his in nerfed compared to mine under the current situation.

Now how bloody hard would it have been for you to just trust me on a MECHANICAL DECISION? It has nothing to do with "gut" or "associative tells" or anything like that. A purely mechanical play by someone in the know.

[Almost50]

Bottom line: If I (or anyone else but milk) dies, milk is TOWN. If he is Scum he dies tonight. If nobody dies Scum have a Doctor or a Roleblocker (or milk himself is a Scum JK)

[Almost50]

this is also why I think scum have 4 members not 3. They do not have a full NK every night, so the way to compensate that is by increasing their numbers.

[themilkcartonkid]

I'm like 99.999% sure this is a gambit. Theres no way that's a role including jk...

[themilkcartonkid]

A50, are you testing my reaction? You have to be.

[Almost50]

The JK (if true) is a negative utility as long as I'm a live. You gave a false guilty (I'm not necessarily saying it's a "fake" as in "you're lying", but it's "dalse" because I know Cheeky is Town based on my own action). You also could have targeted ME, in which case my kill would have still failed and I would have thought one of Robert/joges was confirmed a townie.

[Almost50]

To evaluate the possibility/probability of two roles existing in the same setup you need to look at the interaction between the two and how each affects the other. In my view it is plausible to have a JK alongside my role. That's why I do not want to "lynch" you. However, there's a part of me that is still skeptical of your claim, despite the fact that I can't see the scum motive behind the claim. That's why I want to verify you beyond any reasonable doubt.

[themilkcartonkid]

I mean, we could always win this now. Lynch omo, you check gamma, I jk la. Those are my major srs now. I get if you want to check me, but just know, if you are telling the truth, you die if I'm not lucky with my jk

[Almost50]

Dpesn't matter. If I die I leave behind me 3 confirmed townies.

[DuckDuckJab]

Buddy I'm sorry you felt I was being unfair to you.

I heavily suspected you weren't commuter. I don't remember what I said to tw exactly but I told him that based on your play and your posting you were some PR that wanted to avoid the NK by pretending to pull off one of your gambits attracting the NK so that scum think you're baiting the NK so they don't shoot you. It's so beautifully A50-ic.

That said we're playing a game of deception. It would be terrible play from me, and somewhat insulting to you, if I didn't consider you might be scum. My argument was based on evaluating the impact of lynch/no lynch on regular roles. Not some original super PR combo-role made for this setup. So whatever you were saying didn't matter to me because you're either town and wrong or scum.

Though now that you explained... (wasn't actually warranted tbh) it still doesn't make me want to no lynch. Still don't see how it makes a difference to you and your action if we lynch.

You don't want us to lynch milk that's fine, most of us moved on from him. Even me the person most hungry for milk's lynch have begrudgingly agreed with tw to delay that lynch/wait for extra info. We lynch someone else. Whether you claimed or not, whether we lynch or not, your action would have not been affected.

And actually given that you were pushing for no lynch and all that there was always a chance they would have shot you, so I would argue that we're better off by you claiming now.

-BuJ

[Flubbernugget]

Yeah I suspected a50 was vig when he supported my scummy comment

[Flubbernugget]

UNVOTE:

[Flubbernugget]

We have

A50, Cheeky, DDJ, and Milk as conftown

[Flubbernugget]

skitter30
CheekyTeeky
Omochao
Gamma Emerald
Flubbernugget
Lady Angel

For a lynch pool

[Flubbernugget]

9 players total (cheeky is in the lynch pool on accident)

[Flubbernugget]

With 1 scum, that's 3 (ish) lynches.
With 2 scum ,that's 2 (ish)

[Flubbernugget]

Preference {lady angel, omochao}
Gamma if we get a 3rd.

[CheekyTeeky]

FFS, I AM THE BLOODY VIG AND I HAVE THE BLOODY INFO I NEED!

I know

Why the eff did you guys make him claim?

[skitter30]

@skitter - maybe I don't know.. I don't have a solid case on it with tangible evidence, just the way I felt about flubber. What about the second part of that quote? Do you feel that any of his posts are indicative of someone having a team with him?


I sadly obvtowned way earlier than this.. at this stage I might as well just post whatever I want until scum NK me or we win.

But yes I didn't want to say it because I didn't trust my pov on the issue but now that some of you have mentioned it I likely got targetted at least once which is another reason why I'm skeptical of the whole cheeky being JK'd twice thing. Not to mention A50 also being alive.

VOTE: Omochao seems like there's more support for Omo than lady A.

i don't really see much associatives with him either way really.

And yeah you were obvtown super early on; the posts you've made over the past couple of days have just reaffirmed it. And yeah that's why I'm a little sketpical about milk, I'm not sure why he chooses to protect cheeky twice and not you? Or why scum would try to nk her twice? Like it all just belies a signifcant lack of understanding about the gamestate that points to either like lurking scum or people making incredibly suboptimal night action choices.

==

My role is bizarre. I simply submit a list of 3 living players each night. If one (and exactly one) of them is Scum, they die and the scum kill is blocked. If none, 2 or all 3 are scum my action fails and the scum NK goes through.

i mean ok?
ngl this role is low-key bizarre and a little bit OP given the sheer number of innos you could generate each night. i guess i believe it tho; if you're lying that would imply that there's some other individual with the ability to kill scum at night and presumably they'll murderize you for taking credit for their scumkills. it also does explain why there haven't been nks

not entirely sure why you claimed this rn tho? you weren't in danger of getting lynched or anything and i don't think claiming this particularly affects today's lynch really. like i can understand why you don't want to lynch milk today if you ahve this ability, but i still don't get why you think a no-lynch is useful here; we can use this + lynch today to resolve two poeple instead of one; and now if you don't choose a scum they will be able to nk and also know *who* to nk

i did think that the no nk thing was prob some sort of crumb for a pr, so that adds up, and you have also been very supportive of the vig

jk + this (what's this even called anyways?) i don't think jive super well tho? you're effectively claiming a strange combo of vig/cop that's incredibly swingy by virtue of the number of investigative results it will yield, and if you fuck up n1 and get yourself nk'd the rest of the game we'd be depending on a jk. like it goes from town having a ridiculous amount of power to town having very little; i think it's unlikely that town would have that much other power in conjunction with this role, but if you go down early, town is understrength imo

and even though two scum have already flipped, jk is kinda useless rn at generating guilties - the lack of the nk could be attributed to your action, and not because the last scum was jk'd and prevented from doing the nk.

==

ok, so a50 + cheeky + ddj
a50's going to check milk tonight

if milks town, presumably a50 dies tonight, so we have 3 innos in 7 people with a jk
if milk's scum, he's dead, and the game is just over. in case there really are 4 scum, we have 3 innos tomorrow in 8 people with a50 still alive

that leaves 5 people {me, flubber, omochao, lady angel, gamma}
the game isn't quite on auto, but fairly close i think? like one mislynch off from being on auto i think if i'm looking at this right, with the ability of generating further results later on

i think my preffered order is: omochao > lady angel > flubber > gamma

[CheekyTeeky]

Ugh. Buj you owe me a trust sheep when I ask for it.

[CheekyTeeky]

So anyway. I think we lynch Flubber today and you guys using your super powers target {omo, la} kapeesh?

[themilkcartonkid]

Cheeky, I dont think flubber should be the lynch. Omo and la are way luckier and could slide past, I think flubber is more of a confirm at night sort of thing. I'm all for omo or la, I would say la because the replacement might be super charismatic or really great scum. I dont know if I would ever be able to trust an la replacement as town because of that. I'd rather conf omo and then flubber or gamma. Mainly gamma