Newbie 1912 [GAME COMPLETE]

[muh316]

His announced attack against Magik kind of fits into this. I am all open for that, that's not the point, but it comes completely out of nowhere.

I'm not going to announce what I'm going to attack, that would be weird. How would you have preferred I call out Magik?

I'm actually really surprised no one else is questioning their read on Enter after those flips. I'm not sure what that means yet but I'll think on it a bit more.

Enter's been one of those reads where he was going to be a TR no matter which way Loop flipped. He's still on my TR list because the play doesn't look like it comes from scum.

Post 157 and post 158 both come a few hours apart with no posting in between and go from "I disagree with most of Enters arguments" straight into a vote because their thinking on Loop is in line.

It could be a genuine progression but I don't view it as more organic than Loops in any way.

I don't understand this. 157 is from Skellen and 158 is from me. I don't recall saying that I disagree with Enters arguments initially. I even stated that a replacement usually views the game from a different perspective and their reads can be quite accurate (which wasn't the case this time).

And then he just goes after me out of nowhere, and it's wild speculation that's a total 180 of what he was saying yesterday, and without voting or pressuring me with it at all. For a first attempt at making a splash, it's overall underwhelming.

I clearly said I will post tonight. That was my morning prodge just to let y'all know I'm here. Also, how do you want me to go after you? Should I give you fair warning 2 pages in advance? That argument doesn't make sense to me.

So now for my D2 reads...

The two big wagons on D1 were Loop and Elements. Since it's usually 1 scum on wagon and 1 scum off wagon, I'll make the case for what I think are the possible scum suspects.

I strongly believe that there was scum on the Elements wagon

. The reason being that Loop had claimed VT in post 251. At the point it was no longer advantageous for scum to be on his wagon. If I was scum I would want to lynch another guy or force another PR claim.

On Elements Wagon

Magik
Loop - Confirm Town
Munch
Thespio

Off Elements and Loop Wagon

RCEnigma


With that out of the way, the

On Wagon

leaves Magik, Munch, and Thespio. Between the three I'd say that Magik is scummiest. This is in regards to his D1 play which I felt was sort of opportunistic.
Let's break it down.

The first vote on Elements with a scumlean on Loop. At this point Loop had already claimed VT so it wouldn't be advantageous for scumMagik to push Loop anymore.

Spoiler:

Here's my readslist as it stands, now that I've finished reading and processing everything.

Skellen - Town
Thespio, Enter -Townlean
PvtUrist, muh316, Munchmellow, -Null Lurkers
Loopdan- Slight Scumlean
Elements -Scum

A lot of this goes without saying (Skellen has a really easy to follow line of thinking, Ptv, Muh, and Munch are all lurking) but my big ping right now is Elements.

Elements has posted very little to actually push the game forwards at all. Unlike Muh, Pvt, and Munch, they have a lot more activity and still don't have anything noteworthy to ask or poke at? For as much as my slot hasn't done much until I replaced in, this slot has done nothing all game to push things forwards and be proactive, and that concerns me even more than Loopdan does right now. If you want an "active lurker" this here's the closest thing we've got right now.

VOTE: Elements

If I'm thinking through the minds of scum, scum!Magik would have seen that a Loop lynch is inevitable, but instead of tunneling [Like me/Enter], he would branch out to other players so that once the Green flip happened he wouldn't be accused of the things I [muh] am being accused of. However, he continued to give Loop scumreads in the beginning. Then transitioned into a friend for Loop so that once he flipped green, we would see him as the only advocate of the town player. That would get him major townie points in everyone's book.

Then there's PR baiting which gets scumMagik to his desired goal of finding out our PR.

Spoiler:

My big question is why claim that you're a PR and not say what PR you are? That makes it feel like you're trying to avoid being counterclaimed or something. I see one possible reason for it, but I wanna hear it from your mouth.

And then the subsequent jump on Loop's wagon.
---------------------------------------------------
Now for the players on the

Off Wagon

It's RCE. The initial self scumread still looks fake to me. Also he never voted all of D1 outside of RVS. Didn't bother putting pressure on anyone and just laid low for D1. That's obvious lurker behavior.

Munch is confirmed scum now that elements and Loop have both flipped town, I'll go back over why on one of my breaks when I've got a bit of time.

I didn't really see much on Munch from you after this. You just began targeting me.
---------------------------------------------------
Thespio has been of the my biggest null reads. Despite being one of the most active players here with more than 180 posts, I can't get a read on him. It's weird but that's somebody I would need to study under a microscope to really understand their behavior. Which is hard considering he has so many posts.

[muh316]

Nice, I got pagetop.
Also
VOTE: Magik

[RCEnigma]

You're right I stand corrected, the avatars looked similar on mobile I apologize.

[muh316]

I can agree with that. Another thing, I don't really think Magik tried to get Loop on his side to push lynches. Not that he was leading any pushes so maybe it would just be under-utilization of a pocket? Though I think Magik is pretty capable and could have used it to manipulate Loop if a pocket was his goal.

They both went after me and Elements. In the later stages of D1 they were voting together.

[RCEnigma]

Now for the players on the Off Wagon
It's RCE. The initial self scumread still looks fake to me. Also he never voted all of D1 outside of RVS. Didn't bother putting pressure on anyone and just laid low for D1. That's obvious lurker behavior.

This is only true based on the votecounts, Elements was at L-1 when I got my bearings on the game and my intent to hammer forced his claim. I felt Loop was town and wasn't comfortable voting one of my stronger townreads. Besides that I hate to say I like this line of thinking actually.

[MagikHorse]

Usually I see people actually spell "white knighting" out. Not used to seeing it initialized like that or attributed to points.

I was skeptical of the Loop case the entire time as something felt wrong about it to start, which I thought was pretty clear. It was ever only a mildly scummy lean to begin with, and I had scummier people to push like Elements and eventually Muh. Once I was forced to take a deeper look I started to see a mess instead of a case, and the more insistent the push got and the more Loop got called out for things I didn't believe pointed in a scum direction the less I believed that he was scum altogether, and who isn't scum is obviously town. In essence the harder Enter pushed, the less I believed in that case and all the more I believed in myself.

Will get to Muh's case in a moment.

[Enter]

Thespio has a weird talent for making really scummy posts and really towny posts back to back.

[RCEnigma]

Lurker is also a misrep as I only repped in with 2 or so days left in day 1 and would argue I have a decent amount of content to sort through, I'll write it off to Omgus but the shoe doesn't fit.

[RCEnigma]

I can only base my meta evaluation for Thespio on one game played with them and one game viewed so take it with a grain of salt, I think Thespio has a naturally scummy playstyle I can relate to.

However his interactions with Enter early day 1 are reminiscent of the newbie game I finished with him in which he only stopped obvscumming after an unsuccessful push on me. Even then he was a top scumread due to circumstance.

[MagikHorse]

I clearly said I will post tonight. That was my morning prodge just to let y'all know I'm here. Also, how do you want me to go after you? Should I give you fair warning 2 pages in advance? That argument doesn't make sense to me.

Your post was basically an accusation, so I'd expect a vote there prodge or not. Also, that doesn't make your U-turn from Loop pocketing me to me pocketing Loop any less strange. If anything we both had moments of "pocketing" each other, with him liking some of my stuff and me liking some of his stuff. If its mutual and going both ways odds are a lot higher that it's just two people on the same wavelength, not a pocketing attempt from one side.

Also, the fact that your argument comes "out of nowhere" shows that people can't figure out your reads, which means you're hiding way too much. A full readslist from you is still well past due at that.

I strongly believe that there was scum on the Elements wagon

. The reason being that Loop had claimed VT in post 251. At the point it was no longer advantageous for scum to be on his wagon. If I was scum I would want to lynch another guy or force another PR claim.

This is honestly a goal for both sides, as scum want to find PRs while town wants pressure to figure out who is likely scum. Pushing only one person in a day is less effective than pushing several throughout the day phase, and that's usually how things run their course if a megawagon doesn't disturb the whole town and break that cycle of rising and falling wagons. I don't see how you think sorting additional players is scummy when that's what you need to do to win as Town, especially when I'm not the only one doing so as Thespio was alongside me and even in front of me for that whole time. If I'm guilty of this he's guilty of this, and yet you call him unreadable null and scumread me for it?

Sure it backfired, I'll give ya that, but Elements himself said the accusations against him were fair. If the man accused says the accusation is legitimate, then what is altogether wrong with me pushing him for those reasonable things? That's how every solid case gets going.

The first vote on Elements with a scumlean on Loop. At this point Loop had already claimed VT so it wouldn't be advantageous for scumMagik to push Loop anymore.

Spoiler:

Here's my readslist as it stands, now that I've finished reading and processing everything.

Skellen - Town
Thespio, Enter -Townlean
PvtUrist, muh316, Munchmellow, -Null Lurkers
Loopdan- Slight Scumlean
Elements -Scum

A lot of this goes without saying (Skellen has a really easy to follow line of thinking, Ptv, Muh, and Munch are all lurking) but my big ping right now is Elements.

Elements has posted very little to actually push the game forwards at all. Unlike Muh, Pvt, and Munch, they have a lot more activity and still don't have anything noteworthy to ask or poke at? For as much as my slot hasn't done much until I replaced in, this slot has done nothing all game to push things forwards and be proactive, and that concerns me even more than Loopdan does right now. If you want an "active lurker" this here's the closest thing we've got right now.

VOTE: Elements

If I'm thinking through the minds of scum, scum!Magik would have seen that a Loop lynch is inevitable, but instead of tunneling [Like me/Enter], he would branch out to other players so that once the Green flip happened he wouldn't be accused of the things I [muh] am being accused of. However, he continued to give Loop scumreads in the beginning. Then transitioned into a friend for Loop so that once he flipped green, we would see him as the only advocate of the town player. That would get him major townie points in everyone's book.

I was far from the only one to say that Loop was probably gonna flip green, so the argument that I'm trying to be the "only advocate" doesn't hold much water. Heck, it was a reason why the push on Elements happened. Besides, did you ever think of why I was shifting that direction with Loop or what caused that shift either? Betcha didn't.

This is also basically saying "you were pocketing Loop to look townier", which itself is questionable given how mutual it was between the two of us as I said above.

Then there's PR baiting which gets scumMagik to his desired goal of finding out our PR.

Spoiler:

My big question is why claim that you're a PR and not say what PR you are? That makes it feel like you're trying to avoid being counterclaimed or something. I see one possible reason for it, but I wanna hear it from your mouth.

And then the subsequent jump on Loop's wagon.

And you're saying I can't question a halfhearted claim? Just saying, there's a definitive scumminess when you avoid claiming your full role in this kind of game since it avoids counterclaims since any other town PR can't call them out if they're lying. I see where you're coming from, possibly trying to work the nightkill around their action, but there's town merit to questioning this as well.

And jumping to the Loop wagon was essentially me realizing that there was no time for pushing elsewhere. You even said the same thing when you asked Loop if he wanted me to risk a mislynch, so I don't know why you find it disagreeable. My vote could've been anybody's vote out of the several people willing to put him to L-1 there and it realistically would not matter one way or the other, so that vote means nothing in turn. If it wasn't me, it was gonna be someone else anyways.

[Munchmellow]

I just finnished rereading everything and will start on my post. I am a little dissapointed (thought I would have an epiphany or sth, it is 40 pages!) But there was just sooo much Enter-Loop, that doesn't seem really helpfull now.

[Nauci]

Vote Count 2.2

RCEnigma

(PvtUrist)

(1) -

Enter 965

Munchmellow (1) -

RCEnigma

(PvtUrist)

966

MagikHorse (1) -

muh316 1026

muh316 (1) -

MagikHorse 962

UNVOTE/Not Voting (3) -

Skellen 961

,

RCEnigma

(PvtUrist)

961

,

Munchmellow 961

,

MagikHorse

961

,

Enter

961

,

muh316

961

,

Thespio 961

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch or not lynch.

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2019-01-30 07:00:00).

[RCEnigma]

In the unvote section Muh should be Thespio instead. Muh is in there twice as a vote on magic and not voting. Also Magik is striked out twice

@Mod

[Munchmellow]

Ok, as said, I TR Enter and Skellen. From other four, I would townlean Magik, but some valid theories have been pointed out, that he could be siding with loop for towncred... I have some doubts about his alignment. I don't think he would be a good lynch for today, we have better lynch options (muh, RCE, Thespio)

Let's start with Muh:
We have a nice Loop townread at start

I'm getting a good townread on Loopdan though. It looks like he's giving us game advancing content which is nice. It's generally towny if someone is going through the effort of reading metas.

Which goes to SR and vote really fast after Enter joined (158). And while I agree with Muh, that fresh players offten have good perspective, I don't think that Enters case was that good and this change of heart came pretty fast. There is no good case for more than 10pages, when Muh comes back dead certain that Loop is a slippery scum. He also doesn't want to give any other reads and says "Let's lynch loop first" - this is not sth town would say.
About D2 - I think Muh made some valid points in his 1025.

I also looked into possible partners excluding my TR (with 4suspects it's 6combinations).
It doesn't work with Magik, I don't think they're double bussing. RCE also seemes unlikely (considering Muh's theory, RCE is second scum...). I think it would work with Thespio - in 158 Muh commemts that Thespios self-sacrificing post was suspicious but that he thinks town does that. There are some more posts, where Muh states athespio did sth wierd/suspicious, but never scumreads him and is later asking why is Thespio still on L-2. They were also both on Loop's wagon, so if you consider 2on wagon theory, it would explain why scum didn't hammer Loop sooner.

Will continue with RCE in next post...

[Nauci]

In the unvote section Muh should be Thespio instead. Muh is in there twice as a vote on magic and not voting. Also Magik is striked out twice

@Mod

Mod Notes

Nice catch! There was a weird error in my spreadsheet; it's been corrected.

[Munchmellow]

So, RCE, first known as Pvt:
jumped on Thespio's joke way to strong in110 and was still pushing it in 132. It seemed out of nowhere. Elements said Pvt acts the same as he did in their previous game, where he was scum, but his readlists and style simed similar to my last game with Pvt (town), so this is NAI, specially with Pvt replacing.
Let's just say Pvt's lurky Thespio push seemed scummy.

RCE had a good start, but didn' really pick sides. His vote stayed Pvt's RVS vote, which I do find wierd.

I would prefer a lynch on muh personally

Why not voting him then?

There is a thing about stating one of Loop/muh is deffinetelly scum. And later one of me/elements is scum. This could be a nice way setting mislynches.
His wagon theory is ok, but is still just assumptions and PoE. My vote staying on Thespio, while I scumread him and not switching to Loopdan, who I didn't scumread, shouldn't be the base for your case. It also doesn't go with your previous statement, that scum would just go with Enter's accusations (which I agree with and is part of a reason I didn't want to vote Loop - this wagon forming smelled fishy).
Other than that, I don't have much to say about RCE's play. He explains his thoughts, thinks, asks questions. Way better impression than Pvt. But Pvt was around for quite some time and I don't want to overlook that part of the same slot.

Possible partners - Magik (muh's case 1025) there is nothing in their interaction, that would make this impossible
Thespio - PVT's start makes this unlikely
Muh - unlikely as stated in my "Muh post".

[Thespio]

So, RCE, first known as Pvt:
jumped on Thespio's joke way to strong in110 and was still pushing it in 132. It seemed out of nowhere. Elements said Pvt acts the same as he did in their previous game, where he was scum, but his readlists and style simed similar to my last game with Pvt (town), so this is NAI, specially with Pvt replacing.
Let's just say Pvt's lurky Thespio push seemed scummy.

RCE had a good start, but didn' really pick sides. His vote stayed Pvt's RVS vote, which I do find wierd.

I would prefer a lynch on muh personally

Why not voting him then?

There is a thing about stating one of Loop/muh is deffinetelly scum. And later one of me/elements is scum. This could be a nice way setting mislynches.
His wagon theory is ok, but is still just assumptions and PoE. My vote staying on Thespio, while I scumread him and not switching to Loopdan, who I didn't scumread, shouldn't be the base for your case. It also doesn't go with your previous statement, that scum would just go with Enter's accusations (which I agree with and is part of a reason I didn't want to vote Loop - this wagon forming smelled fishy).
Other than that, I don't have much to say about RCE's play. He explains his thoughts, thinks, asks questions. Way better impression than Pvt. But Pvt was around for quite some time and I don't want to overlook that part of the same slot.

Possible partners - Magik (muh's case 1025) there is nothing in their interaction, that would make this impossible
Thespio - PVT's start makes this unlikely
Muh - unlikely as stated in my "Muh post".

Weren’t you part of my wagon?
Why do you think loops wagon felt wrong? Why didn’t you actively push against it? Pvt/RCE wasn’t involved how do you feel about the people who lynched loop?

[Thespio]

So, RCE, first known as Pvt:
jumped on Thespio's joke way to strong in110 and was still pushing it in 132. It seemed out of nowhere. Elements said Pvt acts the same as he did in their previous game, where he was scum, but his readlists and style simed similar to my last game with Pvt (town), so this is NAI, specially with Pvt replacing.
Let's just say Pvt's lurky Thespio push seemed scummy.

RCE had a good start, but didn' really pick sides. His vote stayed Pvt's RVS vote, which I do find wierd.

I would prefer a lynch on muh personally

Why not voting him then?

There is a thing about stating one of Loop/muh is deffinetelly scum. And later one of me/elements is scum. This could be a nice way setting mislynches.
His wagon theory is ok, but is still just assumptions and PoE. My vote staying on Thespio, while I scumread him and not switching to Loopdan, who I didn't scumread, shouldn't be the base for your case. It also doesn't go with your previous statement, that scum would just go with Enter's accusations (which I agree with and is part of a reason I didn't want to vote Loop - this wagon forming smelled fishy).
Other than that, I don't have much to say about RCE's play. He explains his thoughts, thinks, asks questions. Way better impression than Pvt. But Pvt was around for quite some time and I don't want to overlook that part of the same slot.

Possible partners - Magik (muh's case 1025) there is nothing in their interaction, that would make this impossible
Thespio - PVT's start makes this unlikely
Muh - unlikely as stated in my "Muh post".

Enter is set town for you?

[Enter]

Actually, you know what?

I like this better.

VOTE: Thespio

[Thespio]

Actually, you know what?

I like this better.

VOTE: Thespio

Care to explain? is it that I dont follow your lead so you want me dead? or do you genuinely have some issue with me?

[Enter]

Actually, you know what?

I like this better.

VOTE: Thespio

Care to explain? is it that I dont follow your lead so you want me dead? or do you genuinely have some issue with me?

Of all the players in this game, you legitimately feel the weirdest to me right now.

[Thespio]

Actually, you know what?

I like this better.

VOTE: Thespio

Care to explain? is it that I dont follow your lead so you want me dead? or do you genuinely have some issue with me?

Of all the players in this game, you legitimately feel the weirdest to me right now.

Right so for loopdan you had 'condemning evidence' for me your gut is guiding you? Im getting ready to my reads with a little more content, maybe that will help/hurt your opinion of me. Honestly rereading loopdans interactions you read kind of scummy, I saw your push as town, but that flip hurt you in my mind, your attitude was cocky and you werent willing to look at anyone else, then we come into D2 and you are upset i ask you for more reads and tell you not to tunnel.

[Thespio]

also i know you are writing a wall of txt right now, im at work, try to keep it to the point.

[Thespio]

please^

[Thespio]

Can everyone tell me one thing Enter has done, one post, one anything, that makes him a town read?