Mini 2049: The Townsquare Game Over

[DuckDuckJab]

at rand (I'm bad at maths so someone correct ne if I fucked it up) assuming single TPR vs. 4 scum

n1: (4/13)(8/12)(7/11) = ~13.05%
n2: (3/11)(7/10)(6/9) = ~12.73%
n3: (2/9)(6/8)(5/7) = ~11.90%
n4: (1/7)(5/6)(4/5) = ~9.52%

assuming all mislynches which we've been doing :>
the fact succeeding n1 perpetuates chance of succeeding in subsequent nights does increase the % above rand but this is a role which very strictly rewards strong day play/sound reads which is what Jingle is very strongly about AFAIK.

even assuming you keep targeting your 2 ICs after n1 your chance of nailing the other scum is (3/9) => (2/7) => (1/5) respectively

this is not a lolpowerful role just very swingy and extremely rewarding for a player of A50's calibre (don't mind the irl pocketing here)

4v9 is pretty scumsided from a vanilla pov and I low key suspect this game is heavily vanilla so like this COULD be a real role and if it is, lmfao, but there is another world where a50 is like a scum redirector or something? and he's just nailed the scum performing the kills but uhh the probability of that is hilariously low

basically nobody has cc'd him on either the vig shot or the roleblock so

I'm talking myself into believing him tbh

[DuckDuckJab]

dat pagetop
ヽ(｀⌒´)ノ

[DoubtingThomas]

Maybe 3p/sk

There was nk yday?

[DoubtingThomas]

Thatd also mean u or cheeky are not conf if a50s role says only 1 scum which excludes existence of 3p

[DuckDuckJab]

Need the wording but antitown 3p usually included as "scum" categorically but yeah we cld have a tp

[DuckDuckJab]

just own the fact Buj has obvtowned imo, I can't obvtown anymore

[DuckDuckJab]

I'm too jaded and angry at the world

[DuckDuckJab]

quack

[DuckDuckJab]

Thor665, Townsperson, lynched Day 1.
Robert2424, Innocent Evil Person, left the town Night 1.
DarkLightA, Townsperson, lynched Day 2.
joges, Innocent Evil Person, left the town Night 2.
Omochao, Townsperson, lynched Day 3.
themilkcartonkid, Innocent Evil Person, left the town Night 3.

just quoting for convenience btw

[DoubtingThomas]

What is innocent evil person left the town mean?

Innocent evils dont have nks?

[skitter30]

Hi my entire neighborhood has not had power at all today and i dont know when i'm getting it back; vla until i get power back

[Almost50]

Hi. I haven't had the time to actually play today, but I have just read the new posts.

I will check the 3 DDJ tell me to.

Please confirm (in bold) your 3 choices (I'm assuming skitter+Gamma+DT/Flubber and we lynch Flubber/DT?)

[DuckDuckJab]

I'd swap gamma with lady A. I've kinda been comfortable with gamma!town after seeing some of the flips.

Tw is leaning town for thomas I believe though. So I guess overall it doesn't really matter.

[Flubbernugget]

Has someone cracked this yet

[DuckDuckJab]

Has someone cracked this yet

In the sense that I can tell you everyone's alignment with absolute confidence? No.

In the sense that we as a hydra believe we know how to guarantee town's win? Yes.

A50 checks the 3 people we're suggesting. We lynch one of the people he's not checking. CT is excluded (and preferably gamma but that is my personal opinion only).

-BuJ

[DuckDuckJab]

Tomorrow if the game doesn't end and a50 is alive we lynch a50. But if he's dead and game is not over we massclaim.

[DuckDuckJab]

Hi. I haven't had the time to actually play today, but I have just read the new posts.

I will check the 3 DDJ tell me to.

Please confirm (in bold) your 3 choices (I'm assuming skitter+Gamma+DT/Flubber and we lynch Flubber/DT?)

Oops.. lady A is DT.

So yeah actually that's who's left.

Please check

{skitter, gamma, DT}

VOTE: Flubber

[Gamma Emerald]

ohkey
VOTE: flubber

[DuckDuckJab]

So the reason this works is:

We are currently 7 alive:
skitter30
CheekyTeeky
Gamma Emerald
DuckDuckJab
Almost50
Flubbernugget
DT


With the assumption that this game is not completely scum-sided, we are looking at a maximum of 4 scum of one faction. The different possible setups as I see them are as follows:

Town:Scum:SK
9:4:0 (this means a50 is either town or last scum, in which case we win today or tomorrow by lynching him)
9:3:1 (a50 is SK and will be lynched tomorrow)
8:4:1 (a50 is either town, last scum, or SK, in which case we will end up with a 3p lylo of 2 town 1 anti-town assuming a50 gets lynched tomorrow)

Yeah a50 has to be town tbh.. when you look at this shit there's absolutely no way he can win by killing off so many scum like he did.

So for the lols let's consider
8:5:0 (a50 is town or scum. If town we win because it's too late now to stop him. His result tonight will tell us all we need to know to find last scum. If he is scum and has a living partner, worst case scenario is a 3p lylo with 2 townies and his remaining partner if he is lynched tomorrow)

I'm ready to end this game guys.

-BuJ

[DuckDuckJab]

^ one smart ducky

let's do this.

[Almost50]

OK, fine. Could someone hammer so we could get this over with?

[Jingle]

Prodding CheekyTeeky.

[Jingle]

Vote Count 4.2

Flavor to be added. Except at this point I'm probably not going to bother. Sorry.

With 7 Alive, it's 4 to lynch!

Flubbernugget: (3) Almost50, DuckDuckJab, Gamma Emerald,
CheekyTeeky: (0)
DoubtingThomas: (0)
skitter30: (0)
Gamma Emerald: (0)
DuckDuckJab: (0)
Almost50: (0)

No Lynch: (0)

Not Voting (4): DoubtingThomas, Flubbernugget, skitter30, CheekyTeeky,

Deadline is in (expired on 2019-02-06 12:00:00).

Important Notes:
-

The Game is currently in Day 4.

-

skitter30 is permanently V/LA on Fridays and Saturdays.

[skitter30]

i got power back this morning, but don't have much time rn before weekend vla so i'll be quick

i flat-out don't believe a50's claim tbh
it makes the game ridiculously swingy and balance seems to depend on one particular player not dying early which is a really really dumb way to balance a setup imo; there doesn't seem to be much power otherwise and the only reason why we seem to be doing as well as we are rn is because of him getting scum each night. like if he dies day1/n1, how does the rest of the game play out exactly?

i also think that his level of accuracy is scum-indicative - he's managed to find exactly one scum each night 3 nights in a row? robert makes sense for being thor's cw. but why did he pick joges again? he never gave a reason for that. he checked milk despite believing his claim and thinking it jived with his?

he's also walking back the responsibility of his checks these past two nights - he's quite happy that he's gotten scum the first two nights on his own volition and all gung-ho about it and then today and yesterday he's been doing whatever ddj/cheeky want and making sure they approve his decisions. honestly, i think that town!him wouldn't let other people tell him what to do at night.

he also knows i can read him and has repeatedly just ignored me when i've pointed out the problems of his play and his role, and has basically been coasting early game on the commuter claim and yesterday/today on the new claim; he's not scumhunting, and he's happy to let other people make his decisions for him while supporting wagons that have ended on a townflip each day

i think that there's some mechanism for scum flipping at night that a50 knows about (remember the slip from like early day1 where he said there aren't nk's?) and is taking credit for. also iirc i'm also pretty sure he's the reason we started speculating about more than 3 scum yesterday (ie before the third scumflip) - i think he needed to explain why the game didn't end last night despite finding three scum.

i don't believe his claim; i don't think it makes sense as a real role; and i think the way he's played it is scum-indicative and in a theoretical universe i think he should just be lynched and i'm pretty sure that just ends the game.

i recognize that if he's actually is town lynching him would be dumb af tho, and that it isn't happening today. since if he's town there's enough lynches/nights with his role to put the game basically on auto, i think bujaber's plan is a workable alternative that covers all the possible cases; i'm fine with lynching flubber today and targeting the rest of us; on the off chance that a50's town that should end the game, and if he's scum he's going to have to explain what happened over night, which will make tomorrow easy

like i'm not sure what the setup is or why the game is still going, but even though a50 is taking credit for the scumflips, his behavior just isn't townie. he just doesn't feel like town!him, and i don't think this is how town!him plays this role.

[Almost50]

@skitter: stop the babbling and hammer already. If we're both alive tomorrow I will be the lynch and everyone will be happy, so you paranoia is not needed here. Furthermore, you kinda do this to me in EVERY BLOODY GAME, regardless of your/my alignment. I understand being scary to you, but I don't get how you could still be skeptical of my claim, and it's starting to weird me out to the point I'm considering taking a break from playing with you for a while.

I'll stop at that so as not to ruin a good friendship. Just hammer and let the day end already.