Newbie 1912 [GAME COMPLETE]

[MagikHorse]

A single thought's been hammering away at my mind on the work floor, and it's that there's been a lot of casing that seems to boil down to "X is scum, most likely with Muh". If so many people are likely scum with Muh, then why are we not flipping him to knock out the others that don't work out well with any other scumbuddy and give ourselves a good shot of catching scum today? Worst case we lose a townie that isn't contributing much reasoning at all and is scummy right before 5-player LYLO, all while narrowing down the list of potential scum.

[RCEnigma]

I'll say that it isn't as effective as you are thinking to hunt in terms of associations. I'm guilty of this as well but you end up biasing or wifoming yourself. Interactions that could be town/town get read as scum motivated and vice versa based on unflipped assumptions.

Which was my main qualms with elements and Loop asking for pre flip associations based on what they would flip moreso than it being a guiding factor for nightkills.

[Munchmellow]

Ill answer Skellens post and respond this this laughable post from munch, I know you have been less active but when your entire case lies behind 500 posts ago its kind of funny. but since you are either still catching up or ignoring the rest of the game ill address it all.

Yes, please do, so we can laugh together.
And as said, you do a lot of townie stuff too. But if we should forget scummy stuff, because they happend long ago, then nobody should mention Pvt again...

[Thespio]

Ill answer Skellens post and respond this this laughable post from munch, I know you have been less active but when your entire case lies behind 500 posts ago its kind of funny. but since you are either still catching up or ignoring the rest of the game ill address it all.

Yes, please do, so we can laugh together.
And as said, you do a lot of townie stuff too. But if we should forget scummy stuff, because they happend long ago, then nobody should mention Pvt again...

Pvt had less then 5 posts and then swapped out, we can only talk about him in terms of the past. Its like any other topic, if someone dies you cant continue to evaluate them. do you tr pvt/Rce? im at work so my big reply will be delayed

[Nauci]

Vote Count 2.6

muh316 (2) -

MagikHorse 962

,

Thespio 1142

RCEnigma

(PvtUrist)

(1) -

Enter

965

,

Enter 1107

,

Thespio

1108

Munchmellow (1) -

RCEnigma

(PvtUrist)

966

Thespio (1) -

Enter

1043

,

Munchmellow 1173

Skellen (0) -

MagikHorse (0) -

muh316

1026

Enter (0) -

UNVOTE/Not Voting (2) -

Skellen 961

,

RCEnigma

(PvtUrist)

961

,

Munchmellow

961

,

MagikHorse

961

,

Enter

961

,

muh316

961

,

Thespio

961

,

muh316 1131

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch or not lynch.

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2019-01-30 07:00:00).

Mod Notes

Muh316 was prodded.

[Thespio]

@All, ill be using some V/LA I just got a job offer at a competing firm, I will still try to reply to Munch, and contribute but for the next 3 days ill be V/LA as i switch jobs!

[Skellen]

Yes, I scumread Elements too and thought it was scummy to vote townread with a lot of time left. But calling it scummiest post of the game. Jumping on it like that.... I don't think so. It seems too much. The only thing that I don't know is what scum!Thespio would gain from such a vote switch. It is one town to another. Maybe searching for PR, since Loop claimed VT (I think Muh talked about this).

O mean, what is an answer to: do you know a PR? Should he say: yes, I think a PR is ****. I mean PR should claim on D1 only when under intent to hammer. So why try to start conversation about it?!

All this things make it really hard for me to trust Thespio, even when he says and does townie things.
And lets's not forget - Elements, when asked who his scumread would be if Loop flipped town said Thespio.

The vote switch can be interpreted in different ways. I thought it would have been too conspicious to switch from the strongest wagon to a complete new wagon, particularly in context of Thespio himself being the counterwagon to Loop with 3 wagons and he had too fear that the two-person-entity Magikloop (jk Magik) could switch too Thespio and thus hammering him, although I think they never hinted anything in that direction back then. Which is a major reason why I townread him or he was very confident he would have had a better shot for a mislynch with Elements (some people stated that they had Elements on their list).
After all the Elements case was that strong to begin with because Elements was unfortunately a really easy victim to lynch with his faux pas. What muh said about power role scouting also made some sense, although I generally have the impression that scum would act more passive when this wagons have settled, but here the experienced players know probably more. If Thespio's intention was to start a stronger wagon who would rather go through than the Loop wagon and pass his own wagon than I think it would have been very likely that his scum partner helped, but that would only leave Magik as the others were you or Loop.

Anyway, something else. One thing that bugs me in your post is that you that you critizes Thespio's vote post where he accuses Elements. Now that can be done, but it's not the interesting point. Also pointing out his role fishing attempts, I criticized them as well when I confronted Loop about something similar. These are arguments I could agree with.
However he was your main suspect and he did the role fishing before the Elements wagon when you had already voted him and the very vote/post you criticize is the one that started the wagon you joined. Why weren't you questioning the wagon back then when it started and joined it nevertheless? In contrast to the Loop wagon: At the beginning when Enter got started you agreed with him in a lot of things and could see where the Loop wagon came from and looked at it critically enough to decide that this wagon was too fishy for you. Yet you follow the case of your main suspect? I find it odd, mainly because now that you are bringing up the reasons that you seemingly have overlooked back then when you voted Elements up to L-1.

[Skellen]

On another note, since Loop got mad with me as he falsely thought I voted him up to L-1 back in Day 1, I am going to vote muh in around 3-4 hours before i go to sleep which would be L-1 for him. This day isn't lasting that long anymore and I am not sure how my online times are tomorrow.

I can't honestly see someone scummier at the moment than him as his Day 1 play looks to me like the blueprint of scum play. Can't be helped that he did at Day 2 exactly that what I would have expected from scum-muh with going only after people outside the Loop wagon as it would be smarter for scum to not fish in the same pool you are in to reduce your own hideout.

[Skellen]

as it would be smarter for scum to not fish in the same pool you are in to reduce your own hideout.

to not reduce your own hideout.

For crying out loud...

[muh316]

Since Enter has asked for this, I'll post all of my reads with their explanations.

Enter

: Town. The hardtunnel pretty much solidified him as town and enough has been said about him. He's pretty much a universal townread at this point.

Skellen

: Town. The overall play doesn't really seem scummy to me. There's thoughtful discussion on her part and I don't see her as scum yet. Though the recent analysis on me is wrong which I'll respond to.

These are my two townreads at the moment. As for scum.

Munch

: Lighter scumlean. This one goes back to the Elements wagon.

Thespio

: Scumlean. Still hard to evaluate because of the massive amounts of posts and I don't know if he's the best candidate for a lynch today.

Magik

: Scum. He had a pretty good defense but my point still stand from before.

RCE

: Scum. I think this is who we should be lynching today. I think there's the strongest case against him for scum today. The slot has just been scummy overall and paired with my theory on the replacement I think this is the best shot at getting scum today.

VOTE: RCE

[muh316]

Ill answer Skellens post and respond this this laughable post from munch, I know you have been less active but when your entire case lies behind 500 posts ago its kind of funny. but since you are either still catching up or ignoring the rest of the game ill address it all.

Yes, please do, so we can laugh together.
And as said, you do a lot of townie stuff too. But if we should forget scummy stuff, because they happend long ago, then nobody should mention Pvt again...

Pvt had less then 5 posts and then swapped out, we can only talk about him in terms of the past. Its like any other topic, if someone dies you cant continue to evaluate them. do you tr pvt/Rce? im at work so my big reply will be delayed

So why did you have an issue with me talking about pvt in past tense?

[muh316]

I can't honestly see someone scummier at the moment than him as his Day 1 play looks to me like the blueprint of scum play. Can't be helped that he did at Day 2 exactly that what I would have expected from scum-muh with going only after people outside the Loop wagon as it would be smarter for scum to not fish in the same pool you are in to reduce your own hideout.

Let's take a look at the intersection between the Loop wagon and Elements wagon.

Enter
Muh
Elements
Magik
Skellen
Thespio
Munch
Loop


Out of these 8 people, we have 2 confirmed town. 1 is myself so I'll take that out. The other is Enter who's not in scum discussion so I'll take him out. Let's also take you out as well. That leaves 4.

Enter

Muh

Elements

Magik

Skellen

Thespio
Munch

Loop

This leaves everyone that was on the Elements wagon. If I look at the Loop wagon the only person that's scum for me is Magik. If you look at it from my point of view the Loop wagon doesn't make sense to even look at.

[muh316]

Let's take a look at the intersection between the Loop wagon and Elements wagon.

Mixed up my discrete mathematics. I meant union of the two sets.

[muh316]

A single thought's been hammering away at my mind on the work floor, and it's that there's been a lot of casing that seems to boil down to "X is scum, most likely with Muh". If so many people are likely scum with Muh, then why are we not flipping him to knock out the others that don't work out well with any other scumbuddy and give ourselves a good shot of catching scum today? Worst case we lose a townie that isn't contributing much reasoning at all and is scummy right before 5-player LYLO, all while narrowing down the list of potential scum.

The "worst-case" mentality isn't very pro-town don't you think? How comfortable are you going into LYLO? Also, can I please get a reason of why I'm considered scummy. The only points I've seen so far are sheeping Enter D1 which I responded to and on D1 you even agreed that I made a valid point.

Yes, the argument he made was convincing enough for me to solidify my vote on him. If I see a strong case, I'll evaluate it and if I agree I'll go with it. It's how I always play. Similar to what Magik and Loop are doing with each other. Except I don't feel the need to repeat arguments to get my word count up.

The former I won't blame you for, even though I disagree with the result. Still, I wouldn't be repeating arguments if the same questions and scenarios weren't being thrown at us, so thanks for the shade I guess?

[Thespio]

@Muh, you voted RCE but he isnt in your case in any way as far as your math goes.

[Skellen]

Let's take a look at the intersection between the Loop wagon and Elements wagon.

Enter
Muh
Elements
Magik
Skellen
Thespio
Munch
Loop


Out of these 8 people, we have 2 confirmed town. 1 is myself so I'll take that out. The other is Enter who's not in scum discussion so I'll take him out. Let's also take you out as well. That leaves 4.

Enter

Muh

Elements

Magik

Skellen

Thespio
Munch

Loop

This leaves everyone that was on the Elements wagon. If I look at the Loop wagon the only person that's scum for me is Magik. If you look at it from my point of view the Loop wagon doesn't make sense to even look at.

Maybe. My problem here is the lack of train of thought. Like even now it took until #1184 until I heard it for the first time something about me from you while Thespio hovers for the whole game above you with you always bringing him up without any consequence (to take two from the Loop wagon). I can understand that you won't dig through all of his posts, I haven't the time for it either, but it looks like beating around the bush instead of picking crucial actions from Thespio out and to judge him through these.
Drifted a little bit apart, the point is you went in a straight line after Loop the first day without caring too much about the rest and once Loop dropped dead you went in a straight line after Magik/RCE. And this something I can't get behind as townie. One of the greatest problems of town is that almost no townies found each other, if we exclude me and Enter. Thus I see a lot of second-guessing (even from Enter) therefore it's noticable for me if someone just goes with an odd certainty after one target after the other. I am seeing it only with one other person and that is RCE who has transformed into a sitting duck sticking to Munch. I simply couldn't do it at this state of the game.

While I am at it, care to elaborate what on the Elements wagon gave you the scumlean on Munch?

Also what is it that makes the case against RCE that strong in your eyes? As I can see the points brought up are the replacement thing. I already commented on it how it could be interpreted in multiple ways and don't really want to list all possible ideas. In the end one can only lose him-/herself in these and come up with a biased interpretation that fits to the own agenda.
Otherwise there is the lack of voting during Day 1 (his stance on this is comprehensible though) and the self-scumread, which is indeed weird, errhh but I don't know, that's a small thing at this point of the game.
The only good point, where I agreed with you, is the lack of pressure by his side. For someone who is deadset on lynching Munch there isn't coming much from his side, even when I tried to reach out to him in this matter. But I don't really see what scum-RCE would accomplish with it either, as he sticks out in the end with that behaviour.

[Skellen]

Guess I am waiting with my vote until tomorrow though. Somehow I should manage. Sigh... this game.

[Skellen]

Would still like to hear more from Magik. Have been rereading you today and can't help but notice that you were so far only focused on muh and defending yourself (to be fair, you were actually accused greatly by muh) or the typical banter with Enter. Tbh I have no clue where you are standing right now. I share the suspicion towards muh, but how do you think about RCE now that he has been longer in this game? What about Munch and Thespio's behaviour today?

[MagikHorse]

A single thought's been hammering away at my mind on the work floor, and it's that there's been a lot of casing that seems to boil down to "X is scum, most likely with Muh". If so many people are likely scum with Muh, then why are we not flipping him to knock out the others that don't work out well with any other scumbuddy and give ourselves a good shot of catching scum today? Worst case we lose a townie that isn't contributing much reasoning at all and is scummy right before 5-player LYLO, all while narrowing down the list of potential scum.

The "worst-case" mentality isn't very pro-town don't you think?

I don't really see that as pro-town or anti-town, although I might see it as overthinking things. If you never judge what happens if you fail though, then how can you properly judge the risk of anything? It's always important to look at both sides of the coin, and quite frankly I don't believe you can be allowed to reach MYLO or LYLO as you stand with so little from you, as you'd be an even bigger risk there. More on that below though.

How comfortable are you going into LYLO?

Not one bit. Day 1 screwed things over too badly, and now we're facing a bad information shortage since neither Loopdans flip nor Elements flip actually cleared much of anything up.

Also, can I please get a reason of why I'm considered scummy. The only points I've seen so far are sheeping Enter D1 which I responded to and on D1 you even agreed that I made a valid point.

Mostly it's not so much what you're saying or doing, but what you're

not

saying or doing that's showing through scummy. You did basically nothing on Day 1 to push anything of importance and stuck to sheeping Enter and throwing shade on Loop, and you're still basically doing nothing on Day 2, lurking in the shadows and only popping out on occasion or when prodded to action. It feels like you're doing all you can to look like you're doing things every now and then, while in turn giving no valuable contributions to the town and playing things as safe as possible. This is honestly why you keep flipping up as a "possible scumbuddy" for literally everyone that keeps trying to play "find the scumteam before a scum flip", since there is just no substance to you in the end and therefore you fit with essentially everyone. Wise players know that effort is in and of itself not AI, but having too little effort towards doing anything productive is very much scummy and this shoe fits you.

That's aside from how badly your vote on Loopdan still reeks of convenience given how easy your explanation is to fake as scum. In that quote you linked I said I wouldn't blame you for falling for Enter's case, but I never said it wasn't convenient as all heck that you had the easiest reason ever before joining it (which I did call you out for in 1122 and 1134 and never got a response that actually answered this concern), following it up with basically nothing but the same shade that had me thinking of you as Enter Lite because of how single-mindedly it painted Loopdan as scum throughout the latter half of Day 1. Enter may have the benefit of pushing the deathtunnel, but you simply rode on it and then eagerly announced that you couldn't wait for the flip once the hammer fell.

I don't have a single clue how we could possibly take you to MYLO/LYLO with so little substance to you and such a high chance that you're scum trying to sneak under the radar here. You'd either be a liability as a poor player that's also lynchbait or scum we don't want making it that far. Neither is good under MYLO/LYLO pressure.

[MagikHorse]

Would still like to hear more from Magik. Have been rereading you today and can't help but notice that you were so far only focused on muh and defending yourself (to be fair, you were actually accused greatly by muh) or the typical banter with Enter. Tbh I have no clue where you are standing right now. I share the suspicion towards muh, but how do you think about RCE now that he has been longer in this game? What about Munch and Thespio's behaviour today?

I meshed with Thespio twice during Day 1, with both times forming the Muh and Elements wagons respectively. There's a bit of closeness in that twice aligned thinking that's honestly still sticking around even now. Even ignoring that I don't really see the issue with Thespio beyond a couple of awkward posts that make up a very small fraction of their large postcount. I'm honestly don't care about his spat with Enter since Enter is just generally the kind that gets into arguments easily and throw things around, and I'm honestly not convinced of anything from that. Nothing is really changing here to make me lower him.

I don't like that Munch is still teamhunting (which quite frankly was what I was thinking about at work regarding post 1175), but otherwise they're kinda just there not really doing much akin to Muh. I don't think their case on Thespio is all that strong. Slipping a bit into scum territory, but with the benefit of not looking like a sneaky snake like Muh does.

Skellen is doing some of the same things as Munch regarding teamhunting, but is far more actively engaging things and trying to sort things out. Keeps quite a fair bit of their towniness from early Day 1 on top of that.

RCEnigma speaks a fair bit of sense. I can't townread someone off of simple sensibility, but I do for trying pretty solidly to figure things out, with 1141 being one of the only things I'm not really agreeable on. That post feels like Thespio's early Day 1 "just lynch me" thinking, which is one of those Thespio bad posts, although I can see it as a bit of frustration from both parties. I still don't understand their wagonomics read as of yet, but otherwise read them as town for trying to sort out everything else.

You should already know my thoughts on Muh and Enter, as they're plenty clear.

Skellen, Thespio - Town
Enter, RCEnigma - Townlean
- Null
Munchmellow- Slight Scumlean
muh316 - Scum

[Enter]

@Magik:
Please explain how the loopdan vote "reeks of convenience" in a way that a vote on any other player does not.
Here's how I see it:
At the time of Muh voting Loopdan there were three other viable wagons as shown here:

Vote Count 1.4

Thespio (3) -

PvtUrist 10

,

Munchmellow 140

,

Elements 149

PvtUrist (2) -

Elements

11

,

Skellen 118

,

Loopdan 125

MissDeadbeat (1) -

Thespio 100

,

Loopdan

109

Loopdan (1) -

Enter 130

UNVOTE/Not Voting (2) -

Skellen

5

,

PvtUrist

5

,

Munchmellow

5

,

Elements

5

,

MissDeadbeat 5

,

Enter

5

,

muh316

5

,

Thespio

5

,

Loopdan

5

,

muh316 101

The only way that I see it being "convenient" for muh to vote Loopdan is if the other wagons were on scum, and since there's only two scum in this game, that's not possible.
Not even considering the fact that you're implying that you, Thespio, and/or RCE is also scum, but I'm having trouble finding your case for ANY of them being scum.

You just managed to write three paragraphs of words accusing him of agreeing with me and pushing for the lynch of the player he thought was scum.

In addition to you accusing him of this, the irony of the matter is that you're in a pretty similar place. A large majority of your posts are large sums of words that defend Loopdan, defend yourself, and talk about how muh was scum. This is what I was talking about earlier when I meant I'd like to see you push something. If you think that just pushing Muh as scum is fine and fulfills that requirement, fine, but I'm going to hold you to that, and you can't call someone else out for doing the same thing.

[Enter]

That wasn't about him as much as myself as a decently experienced player who feels this way. You took this as referring to him, even though it was never meant to.

Still, I'm more offended that you're repeatedly refusing to listen than being wrong. Town will blunder about, make mistakes from time to time, and overall be wrong and I blame nobody for that. Doesn't change the fact that the fewer interactions we have between each other, the better.

You're right, I did make an assumption here that I shouldn't have made. I will try to justify it, however, by asking why on EARTH you were talking about yourself here, that doesn't push the game forward in any form or fashion. Please find a way to get over your feelings and play the darn game.

Also, RCE says things in a sensible manner, that doesn't make the things he is saying sensible.

[muh316]

@Muh, you voted RCE but he isnt in your case in any way as far as your math goes.

He's in my 1 off wagon and 1 on wagon formula coming from my first post of D2.

[muh316]

Drifted a little bit apart, the point is you went in a straight line after Loop the first day without caring too much about the rest and once Loop dropped dead you went in a straight line after Magik/RCE. And this something I can't get behind as townie. One of the greatest problems of town is that almost no townies found each other, if we exclude me and Enter. Thus I see a lot of second-guessing (even from Enter) therefore it's noticable for me if someone just goes with an odd certainty after one target after the other. I am seeing it only with one other person and that is RCE who has transformed into a sitting duck sticking to Munch. I simply couldn't do it at this state of the game.

I disagree. If I find someone scummy I'm going to go after them and ask them questions. I didn't spend D1 speculating on possible scum suspects like others did that were contingent on Loops flip. There were so much discussion of "If Loop is scum/town, then this player is also scum/town" all of which is now pointless. That's probably why you didn't see me write potential scum suspects. Adding on to that, I had some back and forth with Magik D1, so this isn't something that came out of nowhere.

Also, didn't Magik go in a straight line after me starting D2? Didn't RCE go after Munch? Didn't Thespio go after RCE and Me? If you can't get behind me going after other players and calling them scummy, then you should also be calling out the other players.

[Nauci]

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