Newbie 1912 [GAME COMPLETE]

[RCEnigma]

Ebwop: shot..............

[Thespio]

Also, this should clear me to some degree, he was Jailor, If he thought it was me wouldnt he jail me?

What is your point here? How do we know he didn't jail you? How do YOU know he didn't jail you?

We dont which is why him calling a kill list doesnt matter, is there any valid reason that doesnt rely on you guessing some far out situation for voting me?

[Thespio]

EBWOP: the point is your reasoning is super reliant on you guessing something, you are saying im guilty for seeing reason in Enters points because as scum i know he is innocent, and thus im just wagoning, and I talked about PRs because i was hunting for them, plus the person who was NKed thought i was scum. However the reason is in the discussion, when Loop was barely posting, and was just jumping in to make small comments (as his ISO shows) Enters argument made sense, I thought I saw him post his role which upset me which is why those posts are so close together. Then when I felt loop was active and posting as town I, along with Magik, Turned to the scummiest player with only a few days left hoping we could find scum. All of which are IMO pretty easy to see when you read the game.

[muh316]

"Asking questions". Well, you were pretty generous when it came to Loop. Went back and looked through your posts on Day 1 to find only one question. And that was the one why he wasn't looking on his own wagon for scum, which was even wrong. Not counting the general questions like the one with the scum-selfhammer or risking a no-lynch with last minute wagon. You voted him, judged him guilty from the beginning and had no interest to question anything.

Sure, with Loop I had an inherent bias from the beginning. That's why I didn't ask him questions. D2, I don't have a strong bias against Magik which is why I did ask him questions and push him.

The other point was that you actually were speculating (if one could call it like that) with throwing Thespio, Elements and Pvt in just to neglect them. This is in hindsight for me particularly noteworthy as you basically said in #1201 "Looking at the slot as a whole, given the inactivity, lack of voting, and scummy D1 entrance it makes a good case for a lynch.". These are all things that applied to the Pvt/RCE slot at the first day. Yet besides the self-scumread comment there was nothing in that direction.
Btw would it really have mattered less to you if RCE would have hammered Loop/Elements or parked his vote offside the main attraction on you or someone else?

I admit on D1 I wasn't really scumhunting as much as I should have. However, there was a giant gap between pvt's last post and RCE's first post of maybe a dozen pages. At that point my focus had shifted completely towards Loop whilst I also did have a bit to say about Elements. Since the game had heated up so much, I didn't want to start another wagon or push something on a fairly new player.

[muh316]

To come back to that, this situation is exactly why I am feeling so uncomfortable about the current state of the game. Everything is so wide-spread and deadlocked that I can't help but feel like everything is comfortable for scum or we really have both scum up for the lynch. I don't know what to make out of it. And we have nearly ran out of time.

Right, this is exactly why I don't want town to go into LYLO because I feel like this is a guaranteed scum victory unless our PR (if we have one) pulls some useful information.

After my lynch, the wagon will probably be Thespio, Skellen, Magik, and somebody else. Out of these 4, I don't think we will have the information to find the scum between them. I'm assuming Enter isn't voting for me. That leaves 3/4 scummy players on my wagon (Thespio, Magik, {Munch,RCE}) which is going to be tough to evaluate come D3.

[Munchmellow]

Also, this should clear me to some degree, he was Jailor, If he thought it was me wouldnt he jail me?

What is your point here? How do we know he didn't jail you? How do YOU know he didn't jail you?

We dont which is why him calling a kill list doesnt matter, is there any valid reason that doesnt rely on you guessing some far out situation for voting me?

But now you are saying we don't know and before you were clearly implying that Elements not jailing you should clear you. I don't know, maybe it's to early, how does him being a jailkeeper clear you?

[Munchmellow]

To come back to that, this situation is exactly why I am feeling so uncomfortable about the current state of the game. Everything is so wide-spread and deadlocked that I can't help but feel like everything is comfortable for scum or we really have both scum up for the lynch. I don't know what to make out of it. And we have nearly ran out of time.

To raise the stakes for now: VOTE: muh316

Should just be L-2 for now. I will look back into the thread tomorrow morning like in 6 hours. Since I will be at work I have to sneak to the toilet or something like that to post here, so I won't be able to write much at all but it should be enough for votes und unvotes. Depending on muh's next answer and if he can clear my doubts about him or not I will decide if my vote remains on him or if I will unvote. To be honest despite me still seeing some points critical about muh I thought some of his recent posts were good and could be seen consistent with his play, even for Day 1.

I kind of feel the same way. I don't know if it's cold feet because another mislynch would get us to LYLO, but I just got really uncomfortable with picking any of them. Probablly cold feet. In my last(first) newbie I hammered and just got really nervous and certain dude is gonna flip town after I did it. But he was scum.
I have to go get kids ready for school. I'll check back during a break in a few hours.

[muh316]

Before anyone else votes me, just to make this clear. My D1 play was heavily biased against Loop. I saw Enter's case against him and thought this was an open and shut case. I got lazy and felt that nothing else had to be done. The whole battle between them was extremely entertaining to watch from the sidelines and I was eager for it to come to an end. That's the reason why I didn't do my part as well as I should have.

However, I'm sure everyone can say that D2 my involvement has been a complete 180 from then. Before you hammer, I'd just like everyone to evaluate me based on what I've done D2 as well and not just tunnel my D1 play. Lynching me for sheeping on D1 isn't a valid reason to me. If I do get lynched today, I encourage everyone to take another look at those who have picked up this issue and voted for me.

I still feel that an RCE lynch is going to get us the better chance at hitting scum so I'll keep my vote on him. I'm going to sleep now in a couple minutes. Hopefully tomorrow morning we come to a conclusion that's best for town. My reads still stand at where they were before.

[muh316]

Also, this should clear me to some degree, he was Jailor, If he thought it was me wouldnt he jail me?

This doesn't really clear you because you could have easily had your scum partner make the kill in the case that you are scum. That way nobody gets roleblocked.

[Enter]

I forget how much I hate not knowing if I'll be there tomorrow. There's so much I want to say, but if I say it, it doesn't help. The more I think about this game, the more it feels like it's a puzzle with a single piece out of place.

I don't know if it's the lack of evaluation this game or the stubbornness regarding reads. I can't put my finger on it but it's made me less invested in the game. Skellen is still trying to gamesolve so that's probably selfish of me. Her and Magik I probably never lynch.

Skellen to answer you partly. It's not that I feel there is doubt, the alternative I posed is unlikely but to me is the only way that Munch is town here fmpov. Thus my surety on her flipping scum.

If Muh flips scum munch is just the partner, I doubt much vs Magik today was scum theater, Thespio would deserve some consideration. I know you discounted Munch/Thespio together and I think the logic is sound there.

Munch/muh would fit the scum apathy theory Loop brought up and based on both day 1 wagons being town it points to the advocates/sheep votes and not the leaders of the lynches.

Enter this probably narrows your Poe down to just me but afaik your accusations on Magik/less so loop were in part for leading a counterwagon in Elements. I don't see the scum motivation behind getting Elements wagon going when a strong wagon against Loop as town was already rolling. Sure it makes sure at least one of the two flips and the danger of a wagon flipping on scum is nullified but it was pretty apparent Loop was going to be lynched despite his VT claim.

The problem is I definitely see where you're coming from. And... I usually agree on the whole apathy thing... but the discussion I had w/ Munch at end of day made me almost certain she's town. If someone can read through that and tell me they think she's scum, that's fine.

Maybe I'm old, maybe mafia has changed a whole lot since I last played, but I tunnel people. A lot. It's a thing I thought I was pretty good at (I used to be pretty accurate, if I remember correctly) and I'd open almost every game taking everyone out of RVS with a pretty hard tunnel. And I used to be able to tell who was scum and who wasn't (with some degree of inaccuracy, but it was pretty good) based on how players reacted (even the player I was tunneling.) The "You could be anyone IV" was a great example of that.

But this game I actually cannot tell. Loopdan reacted how I expected scum to react, how I've seen them react (I wasn't even really meaning to tunnel him, just shove him in the right direction), but everyone else has played a pretty solid game. Which makes me feel bad, because once I was certain loopdan was scum and my push turned into a tunnel, I felt certain in my ability to find scum based off of that, and now I just feel like we're in a really messed up state.

So big props to scum. You've really played well on this one. Whoever it is, you've got me all befuzzled, and even the other people here are just trying to PoE because almost everyone makes sense as town.

Btw, @Enter, after making your case against Loop and Thespio being his partner, you said PvT is town. Why did you think that?

It was based on loop/Thespio being scummier than PvT and I couldn't see the two being on a team together. Loopdan flipped town => Pvt is pretty null.

I figured out what your avatar was, BTW. Took me awhile, I know, but I didn't see the blue man in the background 'til I started actually looking to sort how you were reading each player.

BTW, would you agree that your reads are something like this:
Enter - town
Skellen - town
Magik - scummy
RCE- scummy
Muh - scummier
Thespio - scummiest

@All, ill be using some V/LA I just got a job offer at a competing firm, I will still try to reply to Munch, and contribute but for the next 3 days ill be V/LA as i switch jobs!

Congratulations!

Anyways. Kinda big post coming up in a sec.

[RCEnigma]

Before anyone else votes me, just to make this clear. My D1 play was heavily biased against Loop. I saw Enter's case against him and thought this was an open and shut case. I got lazy and felt that nothing else had to be done. The whole battle between them was extremely entertaining to watch from the sidelines and I was eager for it to come to an end. That's the reason why I didn't do my part as well as I should have.

However, I'm sure everyone can say that D2 my involvement has been a complete 180 from then. Before you hammer, I'd just like everyone to evaluate me based on what I've done D2 as well and not just tunnel my D1 play. Lynching me for sheeping on D1 isn't a valid reason to me. If I do get lynched today, I encourage everyone to take another look at those who have picked up this issue and voted for me.

I still feel that an RCE lynch is going to get us the better chance at hitting scum so I'll keep my vote on him. I'm going to sleep now in a couple minutes. Hopefully tomorrow morning we come to a conclusion that's best for town. My reads still stand at where they were before.

Your case on me is on my day 1 play and mostly not even mine specifically. But it looks like you or me so I get it. Just thought it was worth commenting that your defense contradicts your case.

[Enter]

So, this game is rough. I went back through Skellen's posts to see what she's thinking, but her thoughts pretty much just mirror my own.

I have two options here, I think:

1. Ignore my experience that insists that activity is not alignment indicative and consider Munch/Muh.
2. Ignore the debacle that was yesterday that insists that accuracy is not always indicative of scum and consider Magik/RCE.

[RCEnigma]

Lol I feel for you man, the curse of being a universal townread.

[Enter]

Lol I feel for you man, the curse of being a universal townread.

Ha. What a curse.

Let's weigh our options:

Muh: Doesn't post much, but when he does post, I agree. Maybe he's got me in his pocket, but the things he writes make sense to me. If I scumread Muh, I think I also have to scumread Munch, because I don't see him being scum w/ RCE/Magik
Magik: Posts a lot of things I disagree with. Insistence on Loop being town seems like a white knight (because I was pretty convinced he was scum, as was a lot of the rest of town). I can see where he comes from, sort of, where he says things opposite to me because he's frustrated with my disagreement. However, even in the past when I've defended someone, I've noticed when their nose is up my rear, and if I ever see someone manage to sweet talk Magik like Loop did again, I'll probably get diabetes on the spot. Trying to get white knight points for loop makes sense from my perspective, however, because that whole day I could tell loop was probably going to be lynched. So. Did Magik just have really good reads when it came to loop, but bad ones as far as elements was concerned? Did he also manage to not notice the way loop talked to him, reacted to him, or does he not care?
The other problem with Magik: I've had to ask him for reads past his initial entrance. I don't know about the rest of the players, but usually when I play mafia and I don't know what to do or where I'm going, I just drop reads. It's a pretty good way to catch people up on where you are in the game and you can all help each other get on the same page. Unfortunately, Magik has done little this game except push elements and defend loop day one, and push muh day two. Is he so certain muh is scum? Maybe PoE. If I scumread Magik, I think I also have to scumread RCE, because I don't see him being scum w/ Muh (maybe munch?)

TL;DR
Muh
- Low activity
- Had to ask for reads
- would have to scumread Munch
Magik
- Good read on loop (when p much no one else did)
- Bad read on elements
- Had to ask for reads
- would have to scumread RCE

---

I don't know, but I'm leaning Magik over Muh here.

[RCEnigma]

You know I'm not budging on Magik, you'd have to convince the rest of town.

[Enter]

This is particularly difficult, because I would normally townread both of these players pretty hard (I think), but I can't just put Magik and Muh together. (right?)

Munch: Low-ish post count. Again, when she posts, I don't necessarily agree, but I can see that argument coming from town. Big seller for her on the townread yesterday: the conversation we had over elements/Loopdan. Big reason she might be scum: She's currently pushing Thespio -which is normally a good idea, but when we're crunched for time, we should try to keep it to people who have been discussed in detail and have some pressure on them for a lynch and while Thespio is kind of scummy, he hasn't been in discussion for a large portion of the day (or maybe he has, this day flew by) and I don't feel comfortable with a flash wagon at this point.
RCE: Makes a lot of sense. Says a lot of sensible, relatable things. But he says things I remember being like "that's actually wrong" - for example, when discussing elements/loop for which lynch gives us more information. He also works with Magik in a lot of things, it looks like, but not directly. And for some reason his tone goes... weird... sometimes and maybe that's just my brain being picky. I think I would normally townread this player, but we're in a tough spot and I can see most of his play coming. He also brings up things that pinged me the first time I saw them (but disregarded because I was distracted by loop) like this:

muh opened with a self-vote in RVS. I really dislike that. I have only ever once been tempted to self-vote in RVS and that was when I was scum and too scared to vote anyone else for fear it might give away who and where my partner is. I wanted to call Muh out for it, but loop was so scummy so I jumped him instead. This might be what pushes me over the edge, though, to voting Muh/Munch instead of RCE/Magik. This is .. hard.

TL;DR
Munch:
- Low-ish post count
- Townsided posting
- Discussion over elements/loop
- Pushing Thespio
RCE:
- Sensible/Relatable
- NAI
- Discussion over elements/loop
- Weird tone
- Works with Magik a lot
- Makes good points.


I don't know if you guys see this how I do, but in a strange way, I see a lot of similarities between Muh and Magik in my head, and same for Munch and RCE. This is truly difficult. It might come down to me voting Muh because of his opening post. I don't want to do that. I want to blame scum having day talk, but I legitimately feel like every one of these players would make town feel weaker if they were gone. I don't think I've ever played in a game where it was so darn difficult to see someone is scummy or not scummy, and I definitely don't think I've ever congratulated a scum player on their play before and been sincere about it (and definitely not before the game was over).

[Enter]

It might be that my pride is the largest item standing in the way of a muh vote, and while I sincerely hope that's not the case, I'm starting to believe that it might be.

... Screw it. 1205 looks like town!Magik. I think I can see scum!Magik unvoting for town points and then trying to re-vote later to hammer Munch (if for some reason a wagon appears on her), but looking at the vote count right now... Magik and RCE could hammer Muh, but they haven't. RCE hasn't even set up for it. I don't know if they're trying not to end up in the VCA at end of day, but at this point I'm starting to sound really paranoid - moreso than calculated.

You have the benefit of the doubt, today, I think. Day ends in <6 hours. I feel really crappy about this, but this is my leap of faith:

VOTE: muh

That's L-1.

[Enter]

You know I'm not budging on Magik, you'd have to convince the rest of town.

You're not helpful.

[Enter]

I'm going to bed. I can still swap my vote in the morning if I realize that everything I did tonight was based on sleeplessness and there's a wagon on someone else that looks really sensible.

[Enter]

I know this is my fourth post in a row and at this point I'm bordering on terrorism. I apologize.

I'm going to bed. I can still swap my vote in the morning if I realize that everything I did tonight was based on sleeplessness and there's a wagon on someone else that looks really sensible.

By wagon on someone sensible, I mean a sensible wagon on someone sensible. If you put Skellen at L-1 and expect me to hammer I'm just going forget this game ever happened and hope someone NKs me tonight.

[Munchmellow]

BTW, would you agree that your reads are something like this:
Enter - town
Skellen - town
Magik - scummy
RCE- scummy
Muh - scummier
Thespio - scummiest

More or less. I wouldn't say Magik is scummy. I like Magik, he has good posts. But I didn't want to narrow my scumreads too much, and Magik could still could be scum playing this game really well. So I didn't want to put him as town. I would call him null-town with a note to myself to pay attention.
The problem I have here is, that muh makes sense - it's not what he did that's scummy but what he didn't and if we look past his lack of explaination when sheeping with Loop vote, his play could just be called not that involved and not scummy (I hope I make sense, I'm in a hurry so my grammar and spelling is even worse than usually).

And my problem with RCE is that a big part of suspicion against him is because of PvT's play. Elements said that PvT reminded him on their previous game where PvT was scum. I felt oposite. He reminded me on our previous gane where he was town.
When I read PvT's meta in a game where he was scum, he seemed nice. He was nkce to other players, made jokes etc. In our first newbie game he replaced in and immidiately made a strong case after two players - kind of like Enter did with Loop, but even though one of them turned out to be scum, his case seemed exaggerated and like he was stretching. And I kind of scumread him because of that. This reminds me of his obsession with Thespio. Reasons why he scumread Thespio were wierd, he was so focused on Thespios joke about talkjng about girls etc. I don't know if scum!pvt would start a game like that. I knkw this is based on my feeling and it happened like 50pages ago... but this is why I have a hard time deciding between theese two and it is frustrating.

I still think we should push Thespio, but it seems too late for that.

[Enter]

So the words in my previous posts aren't coming out like I mean them to, but I hope you see what I mean.

I see what you mean on RCE, munch. I do want to say that it's also really weird RCE scum reading the slot that he replaced into. That's also something that I have only ever done as scum. I honestly don't know.

UNVOTE:

I'll vote again before I leave in the morning (an hour or so before day end). RCE is.. yeah

[Nauci]

Vote Count 2.8

muh316 (2) -

MagikHorse

962

,

Thespio 1142

,

Skellen 1219

,

Enter

1241

RCEnigma

(PvtUrist)

(1) -

Enter

965

,

Enter

1107

,

Thespio

1108

,

muh316 1184

Munchmellow (1) -

RCEnigma

(PvtUrist)

966

Thespio (1) -

Enter

1043

,

Munchmellow 1173

Skellen (0) -

MagikHorse (0) -

muh316

1026

Enter (0) -

UNVOTE/Not Voting (2) -

Skellen

961

,

RCEnigma

(PvtUrist)

961

,

Munchmellow

961

,

MagikHorse

961

,

Enter

961

,

muh316

961

,

Thespio

961

,

muh316

1131

,

MagikHorse 1206

,

Enter 1246

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch or not lynch.

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2019-01-30 07:00:00).

Mod Notes

Thespio is V/LA for (expired on 2019-02-01 12:00:00).

[Skellen]

You guys are driving me nuts, what a dramatic day.

Some wild thoughts based on votes and interactions however without any details. So take it for what it is.

If muh flips scum there are only Thespio who threw him under the bus then and Munch left, who hesitates in voting him.

If muh flips town Thespio can only be a team with Magik as Munch and RCE are very unlikely. Magik goes additionally with Munch, maybe RCE but not so sure with him ditching the muh wagon.

RCE and Munch are kind of the outsider here.

Dunno if that helps concerning a decision, it's a matter of which possibilities you would rather see cut off.

[RCEnigma]

You think Muh is being bussed here?