Prey Mafia - Game Over

[Varsoon]

Yeah if Fish can conf-town he should probably do that.

[Papa Zito]

Way I see it is either BEF killed to protect himself after getting a juicy lovers claim
or
Scum in the hood saw a situation where BEF would look really bad and they could double kills on killing lover

I think the fluke of the kill landing how it did if there were no scum in the hood is too unlikely.

I agree with all of this.

[Elbirn]

Fish what info do you need before you can conftown yourself? Theres 0 need to be elusive about it

[skitter30]

Way I see it is either BEF killed to protect himself after getting a juicy lovers claim
or
Scum in the hood saw a situation where BEF would look really bad and they could double kills on killing lover

I think the fluke of the kill landing how it did if there were no scum in the hood is too unlikely.

so you think he semi-claimed first and saw the lovers claim, and killed them to explain why he didn't die?
is that what you mean by the first bit?
i don't know if that's the timeline for how things went down? has it been specified?
but if he's scum now he needs to confirm himself which places him in an awkward position ...

If hood really doesn't have a userlist though, I bet dollars to donuts that scum just didn't post there, but in that case, I wonder why the N1 kill wasn't on someone in the hood.

so you think all the people posting in the hood rn are town?

==

Not at all. First, as you note above, it's highly likely that there's scum in the hood. Second, you, like Chara, are locktowning BEF from his D1 play. I had him as a town lean as well, and even defended him: 237 239. But, unlike you guys, I'm taking in new evidence with an open mind.

i just don't really see him as scum. i'm not locktowning him but i don't understand why the conftown-claim-in-hood thing incriminates him either?

- fish claims he can conftown himself tomorrow as cover

as cover for what?
like i don't really see why he, as scum, does this bit here?

==

Shit I thought we were D3 then
Well yeah I'm willing to bet scum just didn't talk at all in the hood, unless BEF is scum and shot survivalistically, or scum think they won't get caught otherwise.

i don't know why bef = town implies that scum aren't talking in the hood (and that all 5 people posting are town?)
or why bef shoots enter to avoid the push (ie why is that the determining factor for the nk, do other scum get an opinion here?)
or why bef claims something confirmable to 4 people who can report it in the main thread if he's scum

[Varsoon]

I think it's possible he pushed them to claim in-hood and when it was a good claim and they'd be conf-town and it'd make him look really bad, he killed it to keep the worst from happening.
I really need to know the exact timeline, though.

I think that there's at least one scum in the hood but if they're posting or not, I'm not sure. It's possible they aren't and if they aren't and we think they are, we PoE ourselves into losing.
Determining factor for hypothetical BEF shooting Enter is more the claim than anything.
What's really notable is that BEF got frustrated that someone brought up his claim in the game thread. Don't know what to make of that.

[Varsoon]

Feels like the best approach is to see if BEF can conf-town,
and then to just scumhunt independent of it because if we PoE to posting hood members, there's potential we get smoked and it's not like every single scum would be in the hood either.

[Persivul]

i just don't really see him as scum. i'm not locktowning him but i don't understand why the conftown-claim-in-hood thing incriminates him either?

- fish claims he can conftown himself tomorrow as cover

as cover for what?
like i don't really see why he, as scum, does this bit here?

Seems obvious to me. Enter said he was going to push fish hard. Enter dies. That makes fish the prime suspect. Fish says he can conftown himself - that gives him cover for the kill, because he wouldn't be afraid of Enter pushing him if he really can conftown himself.

So, I want to see if he can. If so, fine. If not, that looks like a scum fakeclaim that wasn't thought through far enough.

p-edit: cool, someone gets it.

[Almost50]

Has anyone else here played with BEF as scum before?

I have. I played him as both alignments and he doesn't make sense as either, so if you catch any contradictions don't make much of them as that's definitely NAI for him.

Disclaimer: I am NOT calling him a bad player. In fact, I think he is one with a genuine style. I just have yet to figure out how to tell his alignment based on what type of confusion he's spreading.

Back to the quoted, I think I have to reiterate: ENTER WAS NOT SHOT OVER ANYONE. ENTER WAS NOT SHOT AT ALL.

According to what has been said so far Enter SR both BEF AND redtea (Enter's own Lover). Obviously that was not reason enough to spare redtea, and if I was scum and had the option to shoot between redtea and BEF I would definitely shoot the former 10 times out of 10, just because BEF is always scummy and is very much mislynchable ( I recall his gambit on Overkill2, and the one before that when he claimed a Day Cop when he was effectively a "named townie" and got himself lynched on D1). STOP PUSHING THE LOW HANGING FRUIT.

[skitter30]

Fish says he can conftown himself - that gives him cover for the kill, because he wouldn't be afraid of Enter pushing him if he really can conftown himself.

yeah but then today he needs to conftown himself, and if he doesn't he's going to get pushed today anyways? since someone in the hood is going to repeat what he said today most probably
like i don't get what benefit he gets out of this really

also like ... if i were scum with him i'd have him like repeat everything that's going on in the hood and make sure things like 'claim conftown in order to get the lover pair off his back the same night i'm planning on killing the lover pair' doesn't happen
like who is he scum with that they all think this is a good idea? li

[Xtoxm]

VC 2.2

[2]Papa Zito:

skitter30, Almost50

[1]Persivul:

BrightEyedFish

[7] Not Voting:

Varsoon, Chara, Papa Zito, Elbirn, Persivul, implosion, mcqueen

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

The Day 2 deadline is in

: (expired on 2019-02-11 18:00:00)

Spoiler:

Lan Nguyen: You were looking for me?

Matthew Connolly: Yeah, What's the story on Mikhaila's office?

Lan Nguyen: I filled an incident report.

Matthew Connolly: I'm sure it's a page turner, but I don't have time. I need to get a crew on the other side of that breach.

Lan Nguyen: So what's the problem?

Matthew Connolly: Problem is, it's blacker than my butthole at the bottom of a well in there.

Lan Nguyen: The grounding resistor malfunctioned. Swap a new one and you should have your lights. Is that all?

Matthew Connolly: Hey, you sound rattled. What's up?

Lan Nguyen: I tried replacing the resistor yesterday.

Matthew Connolly: And?

Lan Nguyen: And it just... melted into some kind of goo. Smelled like fried ass.

Matthew Connolly: Shit Lan. That's not in the report is it?

Lan Nguyen: I need to get some sleep. My shift's over anyway. Maybe you'll have better luck.

[Persivul]

What's the

town

motivation for claiming you can conftown yourself - at night, when you're in no danger of being lynched?

If there's scum in the hood, why didn't they kill

that

last night, and save redtea/enter for N2? That would have triggered a surprise D3 mylo.

[skitter30]

no, i don't think there's much town motivation either. but lack of town motivation for an action doesn't make it scummy
(remember we just did this yesterday with robert)

and i mean it wouldn't be a surprise day3 lylo given that once redtea and enter claimed in the hood it would get out here today

[Varsoon]

Throws me for a loop that lovers are even in a setup this size.

[Papa Zito]

spare redtea, and if I was scum and had the option to shoot between redtea and BEF I would definitely shoot the former 10 times out of 10, just because BEF is always scummy and is very much mislynchable

This is incorrect for two reasons.

1. redtea had a perfectly viable wagon for most of Day 1. There's no doubt a mislynch could be achieved there.
2. BEF claimed the ability to conftown, making a mislynch extremely unlikely

[Papa Zito]

I'm still waiting for Fish's thing as well. I'd like to get that out of the way and eliminate that slot as a suspect before we move on.

[Almost50]

2. BEF claimed the ability to conftown, making a mislynch extremely unlikely

Perhaps you weren't paying attention, but based on my experience with BEF I wouldn't put much weight on anything he "claims"..

as town

! I understand you may or may not have played with him before, but I have and I've come to the conclusion I need to play another much more with him in order to begin to understand how he plays (which makes playing with him more fun because I'm genuinely challenged to deduce a way of reading him correctly).

Sp far, all I can say is this "looks" more like town!him than scum!him, and town!BEF is more likely to say "I can confirm myself" when he actually can't. In fact, he could very well have been trying to bait the NK unto himself and his gambit didn't work.

Also something I remembered now that may or may not have anything to do with the game: redtea hinted there might be a 3P role in-play. I went back to reread his PM (and Enter's) and could find any redacted info, and the phrasing of either doesn't suggest any 3P roles. This is irrelevant in itself, but

IF there is

a 3P killer then they may have been the one to have shot redtea, and the group scum kill may have been saved (If there's a Doctor/Jailer .. etc, please keep this in mind and use it IF we ever flip a 3P killing role)

[Papa Zito]

Perhaps you weren't paying attention, but based on my experience with BEF I wouldn't put much weight on anything he "claims"..

as town

! I understand you may or may not have played with him before, but I have and I've come to the conclusion I need to play another much more with him in order to begin to understand how he plays (which makes playing with him more fun because I'm genuinely challenged to deduce a way of reading him correctly).

I'm sorry, but this is moonbeams. You can't sit there and tell me I'm supposed to categorically ignore any claims made by a particular player just because in the past he did some wacky stuff. Also

you

seem to be forgetting that I wasn't the one evaluating his claim last night, the scum team was, because we were talking about killing motivations.

Unless you're telling us why you didn't believe his claim when you made the kill, of course.

[Elbirn]

VOTE: BEF

[Chara]

why do you think scum wouldn't have talked in the hood? i don't know if a lot of scumsters would see the lack of a listing in the OP and then decide they aren't going to post in the hood from only that. it isn't like there was sensitive information in it right from the start.

looking at it after knowing information was spilled within the hood, it's easy to say that scum could easily be hiding, but they would have had to make the decision not to post essentially immediately, without knowing if it would be worth it.
i don't know, it just feels like an assumption based on hindsight rather than foresight.

and Persivul: i'm not locktowning Fish. i'm townreading him. it's easy to "consider if he's scum" and then talk about what he's done if scum.
consider that he's town and had a TvT fight. and consider that he was fighting with Enter, in a PT that has enough people in it to be considered public. would you think this was scummy if he'd been fighting with Enter in the main thread as much as the PT?

Fish does need to out what he's talking about, though. if it's bullshit, don't pretend it isn't bullshit. and you didn't answer

why

you claimed it in the hood you think contains scum, Fish.

[Varsoon]

Chara, I DREAM of the day that a mod has oversight enough to make a spy hood and then town is foolish enough to post anything truthful in there.
I'd actually probably wifom myself to death, though, because I'd assume town info posted there is all just PGO traps and shit.
But yeah if I was in a hood and my username wasn't a part of the hood, I wouldn't post in there at all. I'd also ask the mod if ANYONE knew the memberlist or if that was info I could reliably go off if.
If I suspected someone had the member list, then I would post, if only to WIFOM about how I wouldn't post if I was scum.

It'd be worth not posting, regardless, even if town never claimed anything useful or even used the hood much, since town might eventually try to PoE off of the hood and you could essentially play around that without them knowing they're wrong.

[Chara]

yeah but then today he needs to conftown himself, and if he doesn't he's going to get pushed today anyways? since someone in the hood is going to repeat what he said today most probably
like i don't get what benefit he gets out of this really

also like ... if i were scum with him i'd have him like repeat everything that's going on in the hood and make sure things like 'claim conftown in order to get the lover pair off his back the same night i'm planning on killing the lover pair' doesn't happen
like who is he scum with that they all think this is a good idea? li

i'm here as well. like it just seems like a much better idea to simply kill the Lovers and not throw a claim into it. especially since you're scum and can't follow through.
if he did it to "cover for the kill" then that... doesn't do anything. at all. conftown claims with no proof are worthless. are you saying his plan was to hope everybody forgot about his fight with Enter because of his conftown claim, or to hope that it'd distract for a moment and nobody would push him for it?

most importantly, i don't think scum had to have heard the claim at all. Enter said, in the main thread, that redtea dying if town is worse than town Robert dying. that alone is a softclaim. combined with how Enter earlier pointed out that the entire hood wasn't voting redtea? it's painfully, painfully obvious. if scum is in the hood: they knew about the lovers qnd killed redtea. if scum isn't in the hood: they read the main thread and took a shot based on information given out publicly. a less sure one but anybody reading end of day 1 and thinking redtea wasn't a PR (and if scum they would know she's town, obviously) was just not reading.

i don't think it's worthwhile to be saying scum had to be someplace or another.
and this is in spite of my scumread on Persivul, who's in the hood.

[Chara]

But yeah if I was in a hood and my username wasn't a part of the hood, I wouldn't post in there at all. I'd also ask the mod if ANYONE knew the memberlist or if that was info I could reliably go off if.
If I suspected someone had the member list, then I would post, if only to WIFOM about how I wouldn't post if I was scum.

i believe you would. do i believe every scum would?

[Varsoon]

You're right, other people might just go "Oh a hood to post in!"

Yeah actually I'd just not post and if someone came out with a memberlist later or some shit I'd be like "Oh I didn't realize I had access/misread my role PM" or some believable shit, but I'd play like a dunce before that so people would believe it as another goof in my string of gaffes.

[Chara]

Chara, I DREAM of the day that a mod has oversight enough to make a spy hood and then town is foolish enough to post anything truthful in there.

isn't that what just... happened? assuming your own theory?

pedit: and yes, that's my point. i don't think you can assume scum would stay quiet because not everyone thinks before every move they make as scum.

[Varsoon]

@Chara: I mean that I dream of the day where that's the case AND I am scum to benefit off of it.
As of now, we're up shit creek, which ain't great.