Newbie 1916: Epic Music [Game Over!]

[Frozen Angel]

Vote Count 1.3

CatStar (2): LewisMCYoutube, Skellen

[L-3]

TemporalLich (2): roomy, teacher

[L-3]
Birdy (1): CatStar
Skellen (1): Emperor flippyNips

Not Voting (3): Birdy, Clemency, TemporalLich

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2019-02-18 11:05:00)

Spoiler: Vote Change Tracker/Vote Links Day 1

teacher -> Clemency, TemporalLich
CatStar -> Birdy
LewisMCYoutube -> CatStar
roomy -> LewisMCYoutube,

Unvote

, TemporalLich
Emperor flippyNips -> Skellen
TemporalLich -> roomy,

Unvote

Skellen -> CatStar

Spoiler: Wagon Change Tracker Day 1

CatStar (2): LewisMCYoutube, Skellen
TemporalLich (0+2): roomy, teacher
Birdy (1): CatStar
Skellen (1): Emperor flippyNips
roomy (0):

TemporalLich

LewisMCYoutube (1-1):

roomy

Clemency (1-1):

teacher

Note: Emperor flippyNips and LewisMCYoutube are prodded. They have 24 hours till (expired on 2019-02-12 06:05:00) to respond to this prod.

[Clemency]

the ever-vigilant frozen angel hunting for those pagetops

[Birdy]

1. Pocketing as an actual thing can only come from scum. It means to give town (generally leaders/influences) town reads in the hope of receiving the same. But as you noted later in thread, Clem's explicit use of the word in 40 is "just that blatant." Put another way, it is too blatant to be a scumslip, at least from a player as good as Clem. His use of it here is a NAI joke consistent with the personality in his avatar. I took it as a way of sharing a townread on you and me with the board, but not as informative of his own alignment.

[cut]

1. Well yeah, I interpreted his post also like that, the way he phrased that still strikes me as weird, why even doing it so ambigious? I got by your little interaction with him that this might be his thing in terms of play style, therefore I am hesitating. Guess I will give it the benefit of doubt for now and watch where he goes with that, however personally I am not really fond of the "too scummy to be scum" card as it is a good way to cause confusion.

cut

This post reads as town to me. There's no ability for an actual push on Clem to be made, but Skellen maintains his line of "I don't know, it seems scummy to me". I suspect mafia would have been more likely to let this go, not willing to fight.

[Birdy]

UNVOTE: roomy

roomy and Skellen currently strike me as soft town.

This was said in reaction to post 44 through 46. Roomy didn't do anything before then to warrant a town read, but I agree with the Skellen town read on that post.

Clemency is pretty much my only possible townread,

the rest seem to be neutrals

This is what Lich is currently being suspected for, reneging on his townreads and "beetlejuicing". I don't agree that beetlejuicing is a legitimate scumread this early in the game, with individual posts being spread out over the course of one or two days.

The second beettlejuice answer, combined with the retreat from an expression of earlier copied town-reads especially when Skellen has not regressed in thread presence seems like a good enough reason for me.

VOTE: TemporalLich

Beetlejuice answer? That's something I've never heard before.

I'm taking the L due to the accidental slip, trying to cover it up is pretty much just game throwing.

I believe Lich is just naive town here. Reading his ISO feels like someone more trying to figure out what is going on than anything else. I do not believe that forgetting his townreads is a significant mark against him.

VOTE: CatStar to L-2 to force activity.

[roomy]

I wanted to explain this more last night, but my vote was not just for reneging/forgetting town reads (@Birdy) -- there's a difference between forgetting a townread and saying that somewhere in between him explicitly getting off my wagon because it was "a town's wagon" and my vote for him (during which I had not made a post) I "regressed to the mean." that part makes little sense to me, and when asked to justify his townread on Clem here he provides a tautology -- "I have a town read because I feel like he is town." I understand gut, but idk it's just weak to me

crazy part is I'm also leaning a bit towards overwhelmed town, not enough to unvote since I think a wagon on lich is more productive than a wagon on a lurker

[CatStar]

@teacher: in 67 you said TemporalLich copies town reads, but I couldn't see who off when I read through?

I don't think TemporalLich is coming across particularly scummy, just not so experienced as some others. Was keen to start, which perhaps goes with jumping to reads which change. Can't see huge scum motivation for those reads changes.

I've got a townie feel from skellen, liked post 37 which can't see much propose behind as mafia and feels like they are pushing forward in a helpful way.

Teacher appears quite townie with questions and thinking, but less sure about alignment given some of this seems to be IC role and quite experienced.

I'm not sure what I got from reading people's self meta other than sending me into a WIFOM spin. @teacher: what did you learn?

Pretty much null on everyone else. I had a slight suspicion about roomy but found 79 good, open reasoning and open about being unsure and why continuing with their vote.

[Emperor flippyNips]

Hi all should have some time to catch up later today

[Clemency]

mr flipple the nipple

[Skellen]

1. It’s not a too scummy to be scum comment. I don’t think it is scummy. (Not town either, just NAI, like most things). As a broader point though, I do have a different take than some on too scummy to be scum. If only scum did scummy things, mafia would be a much easier game to play. Look at what happened to Loop last game for you. In one of my recent games, a town PR lolhammered a known-to-them town as a way to avoid the nk. So sometimes there can be town reasons to appear scummy.

2. My vote on Clem was an expression of affection. I genuinely like and enjoy playing w him - it’s both funny and he has good reads. Overall, my view on him is akin to his likely view on me: I’m willing to give him space to do his thing, but if his actual views when they are expressed are really discordant or if we have reached Day three without scum blood and he is still alive, I will start to burden of proficiency him.

Wha.. wait, did you actually read that game? Well, that saves time as you should be aware then why I am this time more cautious about this point. It isn't a knockout criterion for me which is why I preferred to watch his recent posts as they give me a more positive impression of him. I don't disagree about the game theory stuff, it depends on the situation.

I feel like you just dodged the core of my question smoothly here when I think about your comment on flippy's vote, but it is kind of a good answer nonetheless. It's probably more a thing that we two have a different mindset in this regard so I am willing to leave it at that with this.

[Skellen]

I do not believe that forgetting his townreads is a significant mark against him.

However he still has to explain how his reads changed. Particularly his change on his read on roomy is odd. He hasn't even posted between Lich's two posts, there was nothing that would have given him reason to change his mind. Unless he reread the few posts of roomy, but I doubt there was such a significant detail that he would back down on his read. Something like that implies to me a lack of interest.

I share roomy's doubts about Lich though. Lich striked me yesterday already as odd, but that was more because he seemed so reactionary and awkward with his posts. Awkward because he just threw some of his posts like that in the thread without any interaction as if he just wants to show that he contributes something. I kind of missed and still miss any initiative from his side. Not sure about teacher's accusation that he copied his townreads as that would only apply to the roomy read as far as I know. I also thought as Birdy that it looks more like a newbie who has no real clue how to fit in.

On the other hand #68 and #72 look so weird. When I first read that it seemed to me like someone who reacted like he got caught. I mean he should know what he is doing.

[Skellen]

I'm not sure what I got from reading people's self meta other than sending me into a WIFOM spin.

I had a slight suspicion about roomy but found 79 good, open reasoning and open about being unsure and why continuing with their vote.

Personally I think the issue with WIFOM is to not overthink anything otherwise it will never lead you anywhere.

What was your slight suspicion about roomy before?

[Skellen]

Not sure about teacher's accusation that he copied his townreads as that would only apply to the roomy read as far as I know.

I am dumb, Clem townread me first with his pocket comment of course. I stand corrected before the teacher got any chance to correct me.

[teacher]

What was your slight suspicion about roomy before?

Want me to jump in or to let CatStar speak?

[teacher]

Roomy didn't do anything before then to warrant a town read

I disagree. But before I get into that, any reason you havent answered 19?

[teacher]

there's a difference between forgetting a townread and saying that somewhere in between him explicitly getting off my wagon because it was "a town's wagon" and my vote for him (during which I had not made a post) I "regressed to the mean." that part makes little sense to me,

I also disagree. You had regressed for me too, because you earned an early townread then went a bit quiet. Not a big change - weekend low-activity is common - but I had it as well. That is why I was more troubled by the change on Skellen than by the change on you.

[teacher]

@teacher: what did you learn?

I'll speak on the purpose to my questions once they are answered.

[teacher]

wait, did you actually read that game?

Yea, I wanted to get a better feel for your style. People have different views of meta, but I support its use. I was also surprised to find an IC-day 1 lynch. I skimmed Day 1 for you, and for the cause of that. I did not read the game as a whole.

[teacher]

I feel like you just dodged the core of my question smoothly here when I think about your comment on flippy's vote, but it is kind of a good answer nonetheless. It's probably more a thing that we two have a different mindset in this regard so I am willing to leave it at that with this.

Im actually not ok with leaving it, since there is an off chance this comment could be laying the seed for a later push if need be. What was the core of your question? I understood it to be why vote Clemency. The answer, as given, was to give a funny tip of my hat to him, who had just welcomed me as well. But if Im missing something, I dont mind going back over it.

[teacher]

I do not believe that forgetting his townreads is a significant mark against him.

However he still has to explain how his reads changed. . . . .[snip]

I share roomy's doubts about Lich though. . . [snip] . . . I also thought as Birdy that it looks more like a newbie who has no real clue how to fit in.

On the other hand #68 and #72 look so weird.

I cut the above to the core of what I wanted to talk about. The progression from 68 to 72 didnt really bother me. On the other hand, the progression in 64, 66, and 68 bothered me quite a bit, particularly 66 to 68. In 66, Lich tries to DEFEND the read change as "regression to the mean

to be honest.

-- i.e., an explicit claim that the read change was intentional and justifiable, with an ATE of credibility. Just two hours later in 68, when confronted with further suspicion, Lich abandons the defense, saying it was an "

accidental

slip." In other words, 68 admits 66 was a cover-up, one made while claiming honesty.

At bottom I am of two minds. I can see where you all are coming from with newb fitting in. I also am having difficulty believing newb!scum would so abruptly about face and confess error without some guidance that the position was indefensible, and such guidance was unlikely at an off-peak hour. At the same time, the specific wording of these posts is bugging me.

@Skellen, I do view 68 and 72 as answering how his reads changed -- they were soft towns that he did not really feel. To me thats another mark against him, making blendy reads that he didnt feel to create some presence. I am nowhere approaching high-confidence, but I dont view 72 and after as redeeming in the way some other players have suggested.

[TemporalLich]

FYI roomy and Skellen still register as neutral to me, it's not like I'm switching them back to soft town because of a mistake.

I'm gonna need a ledger.

[teacher]

Reading his ISO

An IC-aside, since someone didnt know this in my last game. Up above these words, next to the post number, there is a link labeled "ISO" Clicking this will allow you to see the all posts made by that one player in ISOlation. On the bottom of the screen, you can set up double or triple ISOs, which gets more helpful after flips lend associational data.

[teacher]

@Lich - OK, theyre null to you now. Can you articulate why you soft-towned them before? Or was that the accident? If so, can you explain why you posted it and only it?

[TemporalLich]

@Lich - OK, theyre null to you now. Can you articulate why you soft-towned them before? Or was that the accident? If so, can you explain why you posted it and only it?

Mostly instinct, no scummy posts from them and active participation is what led to soft town

[teacher]

Ok. So has skellen made a scummy post? Because otherwise I don’t get how she moved to mull - the active participation certainly remained, and she seems to have the same confidence as Clem?

[TemporalLich]

Ok. So has skellen made a scummy post? Because otherwise I don’t get how she moved to mull - the active participation certainly remained, and she seems to have the same confidence as Clem?

I have nothing to justify Skellen being neutral now but unconfidence will be the death of me so I must stay strong.

He's not NAI or scum, that's for sure.