Open 749 | Vengecop - Over!

[Draco Lucky]

Don't worry, if town shits its pants and lynches us, we'll venge a scum for you

but you guys will have to slip, trip, and fall your way into the final lynch.

I suggest sheeping our poe

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

Here, let me identify our current tone, RC, so you can better read us

It's derisive.

-U2

[PenguinPower]

Your play sucks and is full of ate that makes you seem uberscummy. I kinda want to lynch you just so I don't have to keep reading it.

[Vedith]

Draco is throwing shade onto me, just saying that Scum reads are wrong for obnoxious reasoning and making no attempt to push Micc.

If anyone thinks this deserves a town read let alone townlock, it doesn't.

[Draco Lucky]

For those of you who want a detailed look into the conversation between slaxx and I

Here it is:

Spoiler:

Thanks for talking me out of my confbias.

That wagon happened very easily, I’m thinking one bus at least?

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i'll do some vc analysis before the day starts

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Votecount 1.Final

Target Wagon
0verki11 (6) xwing (207), Dannflor (214), Draco Lucky (236), PenguinPower (248), BBMolla (258), Dr Worm (281)
Micc (1) Creature (143)
Dannflor (1) Vedith (211)
BBMolla (1) Micc (134)
Not Voting (2) 0verki11, DoubtingThomas

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. 0verki11 has been lynched.

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okay so let's take a look at this from start to finish

Xwing votes an empty wagon. Almost certainly not a bus

Dann votes 7 posts later. He's been following xwing around all game so it's possible it's an incidental bus as a result of a strategy. outside of this i don't think it is often a bus. low probability shot

we vote in 236, wagon is gaining steam

Penguin votes in 248. Here, scum!penguin had a choice to make. Do i bus or do i not bus? and he jumped around before deciding fuck it i gotta bus - possible bus. He's less likely to bus if dannflor is scum as well because damn that would be a hard bus being 2/4 slots on wagon

BBMolla basically same exact analysis as penguinpower except he's a little more likely to be scum if penguin isn't scum and a lot more likely if both penguin and dannflor aren't scum

I hate analyzing hammer votes because you can basically make a case for it and against it regardless of how many other scum are on the wagon so like sure, could be a bus with any or no other teammates

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Dr Worm was fishing for reactions he really looked Townie there.

I think Pp/Bb are the best pushed tomorrow although still don’t think BB alone is a good push. Would a scum wagon fall apart for another scum wagon? I’ve seen it happen...

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im working on off the wagon vc right now

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TBH, vedith's play from xwing's vote up to 220, ignoring the wall and then defending overkill are slightly scum indicative. I don't remember why I was strong town reading vedith but i know i was.

I think it was over his xwing/dann scum reads

which tbh i now like a lot less since xwing is almost conf!town and dan is not far behind given how wagon starts. I really don't think he's scum

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and at first i thought vedith being a main target of OK's wall was town-indicative but it's so soft im not sure

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Post Post #222 (ISO) » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:47 pm

Don't get me wrong. I don't think a vote on Overkill is bad.
And i would lynch the slot over keeping with what I have.

I really didn't like Danns response to me though and I feel he was intentially mis reading what I was saying.

for instance, this is really bad

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that's vedith. i hate that i can't quote shit

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bbmolla had a choice of three(!) wagons with 2 votes on them

They were
Micc
Dannflor
0verki11

so assuming dannflor is town, he had at least 1 non-bus choice that he could have propelled forward.

I think it's entirely possible that he sees OK as so scummy that he can't afford not to bus, but he could def be town

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I remember that post.

So

(Xwing, Dann)
(Micc, Creature, Dr. Worm)
(BB, DT)
(PP, Vedith)

is where I am at.

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I forgot about that post. I agree it is super bad. Are there any disqualifying PP/Vedith interactions that make them non partnery?

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i dunno probably not lemme keep reading the day

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micc in 234 and 235 is not a good look for him.

he's annoyed the bbmolla wagon fell apart and asking to be sold on dann

and dann had just made a townie post

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239
we've already given our reads and made a vote
micc feeds OK a softball question about mechanics(??) and pushes PP as a possible lynch

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Votecount 1.9

Target Wagon
BBMolla (2) BBMolla (119), Micc (134)
Micc (2) PenguinPower (10), Creature (143)
Dannflor (2) Draco Lucky (82), Vedith (211)
0verki11 (2) xwing (207), Dannflor (214)
xwing (1) Dr Worm (109)
Not Voting (2) 0verki11, DoubtingThomas

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in 5 days, 1 hour, 1 minute.

What an interesting votecount.

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How likely do you think it scum didn't vote on the same person on any of those?

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241 and 241 are a really weird interaction for scum!OK to have with Scum!Vedith

I'm not saying it's impossible but it's... bad.

And like that's fine because OK initiated it and OK definitely didn't have a great game

and I guess vedith just shrugs it off. maybe this doesn't mean anything at all actually

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they 75% didn't vote together considering we KNOW at most 2 scum were voting

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Yeah #239 is probably super telling

He completely ignores our OK push and latches onto PP

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actually since dannflor and xwing are probably town and creature is probably town

it's only scum together if it's BBmolla and Micc voting for bbmolla

which would be lulzy as fuck and I wouldn't put it past them necessarily

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If its Micc/OK then PP is town

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246-248

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If its Micc/OK then PP is town

agree with you here for sure

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I mean I guess not necessarily, maybe he decided that getting rid of OK might be a easier pill to swallow...but i dont think scum does that

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246-248

you think these in particular clear pp vs micc?

i agree it's probably not the two of them but more for micc's push off OK

I mean, for him to try and push the wagon from OK to PP as scum with both, his plan would have had to have been to only temporarily go to pp and then move the wagon somewhere else later

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I could probably put together an associatives grid. If we decide Xwing, Dannfloor, and maybe one more person...Creature?...is town, thats not that many combinations

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i don't see any reason bbmolla's naked L-1 couldn't be a bus

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Agree

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I actually don't really buy that Worm was fishing for reactions

only 26 minutes from start to finish

and whose reactions do we think he was looking for in that time?

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I feel like a D1 Scumlynch breaks the game open. I mean it will be 7:2 tomorrow. That is 2 mislynches and thus two investigations. Potentially four people gone.

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he got one reaction from someone on the wagon that could have unvoted, PP

so that's fair enough I guess. Maybe I do buy it

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#283, on PP

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I feel like a D1 Scumlynch breaks the game open. I mean it will be 7:2 tomorrow. That is 2 mislynches and thus two investigations. Potentially four people gone.

i agree. there is an incentive not to bus. and if you are going to bus, you better be townie enough not to get an invest

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#284 on Vedith as well

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#284 on Vedith as well

yeah i guess, but vedith wasn't on wagon and couldn't get cold feet

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Now my pool is more (Micc, Vedith, BB) with wildcards of Radiant Cowbells and Penguin Power.

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I think I'm coming down to from scummiest to least scummy

Micc
Vedith
RC

with PP jumping ahead of vedith if micc is town

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yeah throw bb in there somewhere too i guess. not srue where but you're right he's in the poe

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Ironically 5 people in the PoE is autowin

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3 Lynches 2 Investigations

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i could buy teams of
{Micc, Vedith}
{Micc, RC}
{Micc, BB}
{Vedith, PP}
{Vedith,RC}
{PP,RC}

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mind you, im 100% sheeping you on creature.
I don't understand how to read him

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If he posts anything game related he is probably town

if he actually engages people and looks like he is scumhunting he probably is

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hey, that's my meta too

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There's probably a good chance we die tonight. I feel like Xwing would be the kill, but I have a rep around here that gets me killed.

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There's probably a good chance we die tonight. I feel like Xwing would be the kill, but I have a rep around here that gets me killed.

if we do, this can be for posterity. I think we live if micc is scum since i called him town
and def if it is bbmolla + micc

die a lot more often in PP worlds

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but you're right, we're a really solid night kill rn i think for a bunch of teams

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I wasn't as aggressive this game which helps.

Agreed. Dead us =PP/??

Alive us = Micc/??

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I guess we didn't really push the d1 lynch but we read it right and we were on it, so DOESN'T MATTER HAD SEX

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I wasn't as aggressive this game which helps.

Agreed. Dead us =PP/??

Alive us = Micc/??

alive us def implicates micc somewhat
dead us who cares =P

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great now I am going to be down the Lonely Island Youtube rabbit hole for like three hours

-U2

[Vedith]

For a start that post isn't consistent with what you already said today.
Secondly you have had plenty of time to fake posting and given post count is generally not allowed from PTs I suspect it's all fake and typed out.

[Draco Lucky]

The only post count is from one of your posts in this game thread. I confirmed rules with NSG prior to posting. Just trying to give you what you asked for mate, but I'm not going to defend it's validity.

-U2

[Vedith]

Oh I mis read the numbers as when you were discussing them not that you were discussing in game post.

[Vedith]

Vedith - vedith's play from xwing's vote up to 220, ignoring the wall and then defending overkill are slightly scum indicative. 241 and 241 are a really weird interaction for scum!OK to have with Scum!Vedith. It's not impossible though. Also off the wagon, and it was pretty obv!scum.

Lowest priority target

This doesn't make sense to the reads you posted. Why am I lowest priority when you think PP is only Scum If Micc is town?

[Draco Lucky]

Vedith - vedith's play from xwing's vote up to 220, ignoring the wall and then defending overkill are slightly scum indicative. 241 and 241 are a really weird interaction for scum!OK to have with Scum!Vedith. It's not impossible though. Also off the wagon, and it was pretty obv!scum.

Lowest priority target

This doesn't make sense to the reads you posted. Why am I lowest priority when you think PP is only Scum If Micc is town?

PP and micc spew the other town if they flip scum
The case against you is weakest

I'm not seeing a disconnect
-U2

[Vedith]

But if you're more confident that Micc is Scum then PP should be lower than me.
Otherwise it looks like you're just trying to line up lynches on town.

[u r a person 2]

Micc
Vedith
RC

with PP jumping ahead of vedith if micc is town

I see where you're coming from, and from a purely read perspective I am kind of in agreement

but from an actual strategy perspective, If I can't get a Micc lynch today, it makes sense for me to go for PP

[Draco Lucky]

Micc
Vedith
RC

with PP jumping ahead of vedith if micc is town

I see where you're coming from, and from a purely read perspective I am kind of in agreement

but from an actual strategy perspective, If I can't get a Micc lynch today, it makes sense for me to go for PP

srry srry
-U2

[Vedith]

Okay, here's a question.
On a town flip from me PP and Micc who is most likely to cop you?

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Dr Worm

this is where i'm voting today

i think this is actually the highest wolf equity in game

[Draco Lucky]

I'm not really sure who town!micc cops, tbh. Haven't heard much from him since we began pushing him.

I think town!you and town!PP probably check me more often than not. town!micc probably less often, but maybe not after today.

If we wanted to avoid being checked we probably try to avoid all 3.

Gun to my head, you're most likely to check us but there isn't really a substantial reason for why you do it more than PP

-U2

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm actually kind of reluctant to strongarm in a game where you guys hit scum d1

but worm is the best lynch ToDay

[Draco Lucky]

Spoiler: case on worm

VADETH and PONGWIN!! do you THINK OVERKILLED is TONWN or MAFIA??

regarding worm first off this is completely out of nowhere when he's already on the wagon and this is a high wolf equity post but most importantly

if OVERKILL IS BADMAN VEDATH looks like BADMAN TOO

VOTE: OVERKILL

dr worm is tying people to overkills flip... before overkill has flipped... before he has voted overkill or expressed a read on him

literally no mention of overkill in his iso then he's tying people to the flip and voting him then after voting him asking people what they think the flip is ???

so uh the sheer number of people townreading mr worm confuses me

Your case on Dr. Worm isn't bad. Can you explain town!Micc to me?

-U2

[RadiantCowbells]

it's less that i specifically see him as town and more that the reasons for scumreading him are weak

[Draco Lucky]

it's less that i specifically see him as town and more that the reasons for scumreading him are weak

even better!

Why is our thinking on micc bad?

-U2

[RadiantCowbells]

what is ur thinking on micc

[Draco Lucky]

I'm annoyed that this bbmolla wagon has fallen apart.

Can someone sell me on the Dannflor wagon? I think I like it but am having a hard time putting words to why.

Firstly, I dont know if this has been addressed, but under no circumstances do we give someone a target to check if they flip town, mafia will just kill them if they are town.

How strongly do you feel about this and why?

Also, draco posts incentivized me to look back on penguin's iso. I agree its not great. I was giving him the benefit of the doubt for what seemed like a reasonable bit of pressure on me. Then again I was never really convinced the vote was serious so what kind of pressure is that really?

heh. this wagon was fine but rushing to the lynch is stupid. I'm hoping for the best but I don't like the chances.

Strongest part of the argument is these posts. I suggest reading a couple pages to get full context

-U2

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm not actually seeing what you scumread in those posts, care to elucidate or should I do this when I reread

[Draco Lucky]

Overkill is at 3 votes when the first two posts come

The first one is a nudge for people to reevaluate BBmolla rather than go to OK
The second is begging for someone to give him a reason he can use to join the counter wagon.
The third, after we put OK to L-2, is a softball to OK, and another stab at *any* other wagon
And the last one is something I've seen from scum - like Pintu and there's another somewhere in my past games - where scum are low key salty that the wagon on their partner went quick, depriving them of the opportunity to shift it off scum. They just can't quite repress that emotion

-U2

[Draco Lucky]

I could see Micc+Worm, actually I think

-U2