Prey Mafia - Game Over

[Xtoxm]

VC 3.10

[3] BrightEyedFish:

Elbirn, Persivul, Almost50

[1] Persivul:

implosion

[1] mcqueen:

skitter30

[1] implosion:

Chara

[1] Chara:

mcqueen

[2] Not Voting:

BrightEyedFish, Varsoon

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

The Day 3 deadline is in

: (expired on 2019-02-21 19:00:00)

Spoiler:

[Chara]

god, okay.

i'm starting to believe that you believe this. it sucks. it really sucks.

it's a fact that Varsoon isn't mechanically confirmed. you can't say you "don't think he's lying" as a reason. that's just a normal townread. i'm allowed to include him in a list of possible scum, even if i do townread him. you've conceded he isn't confirmed. you're the one who took issue with me having him as such.

your position on implosion vs. Almost would be laughable but it's mostly annoying to me that you can't see why your logic isn't sound, so i'm dropping it. somebody else can explain that to you.

implosion is now an even better lynch than mcqueen because i'm getting the feeling mcqueen believes this, mainly from his last post.

[implosion]

implosion's reason for voting Persivul is based entirely on scum being in the hood. he's voting Persivul because by his own admission he finds scum Fish unlikely.
however, Fish's position on his list goes down if Fish can't prove his role, which for me doesn't track with a strong belief that Fish is town.

he also says lynching mcqueen is a bad idea because it's just wasting Persivul's info, but if you don't think Percy is town anyway and want to lynch him, why do you care?

I think you're looking at the way I'm playing through the lens of how you'd play here; I tend to value info that I think is "hard" like the neighborhood thing. I don't think lynching mcqueen is awful but I'd rather persivul first. I don't think percy is town but i've been wrong before? I don't think that should be a weird thing to understand. If we lynch persi and he flips town then we know we have that result, and we can use it later. I would be a bit less gung-ho about this if we didn't have a ML left.

I need to think about what's going on with BEF though. I really don't know what to make of it. I want to say there's no reason for scum to do this but like. idk. I agree with a50's frustration on that front although i have no idea what he's talking about with like 3/4 of his posts in the past several pages

[Chara]

So if it’s equal, why do u care that I chose the other person??

IT IS NOT EQUAL.

[implosion]

i also have no clue why mcqueen is doing what he is right now regardless of his alignment

[Chara]

would it help if i...
Almost flips town. information we now have about implosion: none. could be truthful town or scum who decided to say Almost is innocent.

implosion flips town. information we now have about Almost: he's confirmed town.

[Chara]

implosion, i'm so burnt out and i didn't mean to be right now and i shouldn't be this annoyed.

i still think you're scum, part of that is you being so agreeable here to discussion. if you are town i do appreciate it though, and i'll be back to talk to you when i've chilled out a little.

[implosion]

it's fine.

i do generally act agreeable as scum. but i also am as town. At least when people are reasonable >_>

[mcqueen]

So if it’s equal, why do u care that I chose the other person??

IT IS NOT EQUAL.

[mcqueen]

I can say the same to vote A50. If he’s scum implo is confscum. If he’s town, it opens up the discussion about whether implo is/isn’t scum.

it isn't the same.
if Almost is scum, implosion is confirmed scum. if Almost is town, implosion is town OR scum.


let's look at implosion now.
if implosion is scum, Almost is scum OR town.
if implosion is town, Almost is confirmed town.

how do you not get this. it's not the same situation both ways. Almost can ONLY be scum if implosion is. full stop. it's the only way.

pedit: the Varsoon point was an aside. my main point is that you refused to vote implosion while voting Almost.

1 conf player in each situation, 1 undecided. It’s equal.

[mcqueen]

would it help if i...
Almost flips town. information we now have about implosion: none. could be truthful town or scum who decided to say Almost is innocent.

implosion flips town. information we now have about Almost: he's confirmed town.

implo flips scum: a50 can be scum or town.

A50 flips scum: implo is confirmed scum.


It is the exact same situation (just the alignments switch on the conf-players in their respective scenarios) no matter which person we chose.

[Chara]

can somebody else please explain this. i don't know how else how to.

[Almost50]

I’m buying this,

Welcome to the party. 3rd player proven not to be reading!

[mcqueen]

I’m buying this,

Welcome to the party. 3rd player proven not to be reading!

i already said i didnt read almost all of d2, so idk why this is a point to be made from you.

[Chara]

we can abstract this down all we want, the fact remains that you want to lynch a cop inno and somehow think that the cop inno has a higher likelihood of being scum than the cop who said they were innocent.

[Almost50]

@Chara: I'm calm now, and I think BEF could indeed be scum. A

1-shot

Motivator doesn't make sense and makes the game quite swingy. It all depends on whether he hit Town or Scum with his 1-shot. So, unless all 3 scum have no abilities at all (or at least one of them is literally a goon) the game could become very scum sided with the single use of BEF's ability on one of them (instead of having to sacrifice one ability for the sake of using their factional kill they get to use all 3 abilities AND get to shoot someone).

Obviously this isn't a 100% proof of his guilt, but if we don't lynch him today he will be lynched, and EVEN if we get lucky today lynching a scum we would be 5 v 2 tomorrow so, same thing .. lynch a scum or risk having BEF in LyLo all the same.

[Chara]

if a multi-shot Motivator is swingy...
and a 1-shot Motivator is swingy...
do you think any sort of town Motivator can't exist?

i also very much disagree that his now-claimed ability is swingy. one scum getting the multitask ability isn't exactly the end of the world for town.

[Chara]

no, i remember you said that a

scum

multi-shot motivator is what is too swingy.
so i guess that's fine. i don't agree with your conclusion though, as i said.

[Almost50]

if a multi-shot Motivator is swingy...
and a 1-shot Motivator is swingy...
do you think any sort of town Motivator can't exist?

i also very much disagree that his now-claimed ability is swingy. one scum getting the multitask ability isn't exactly the end of the world for town.

I am saying that 1-shot is more swingy than multiple shots. If he is Town (thus uninformed) his

random

use of his ability multiple times yields a much higher probability of hitting town than a 1-shot.

13 players. BEF is one so 12 targets. You are Ascetic (and claimed, which is standard play) thus 11 options, 8 of which are town and 3 are scum. A 27% if giving scum a 50% boost (they should be using only 2 abilities per night, but instead get to use all 3).

If he had 3 shots chances are he will hit 2 town and 1 scum (regardless of the order) so it evens out.

And now that I think of it more it sounds more ridiculous. Like, what if he used his ability on D1, hit scum and then got lynched or NK'd? So, actually even multiple shots now feels like a bad thing to town, and the ONLY thing working for him is Elbrin's "scum claim" that his role cannot be modified.

Like, if BEF flips green Elbrin is 100% scum here. No ifs or buts.

[Almost50]

As I said.. I am going to be sheeping skitter eventually. You can all do whatever you think is right.

[Chara]

so Almost, nothing in your role would make Percy's shot fail? just to confirm.

[Almost50]

so Almost, nothing in your role would make Percy's shot fail? just to confirm.

No. Nothing at all.

[Chara]

alright. i'm luka golubkin.
confirming that i'm ascetic and hated because i appear to be a murderer. and ascetic because my mind is too warped even for the typhon.

i'm also a jailkeeper. specifically my target is roleblocked and rolestopped. that means they are protected from kills and unable to be targeted by anything.
i'm sure you can figure out my night 1 target. my night 2 was skitter. (sorry if i fucked up one of your abilities, skitter. on the bright side i believe i stopped the kill.)

i thought about saying i'm simply hated and ascetic and nothing else, but if scum want to kill me i'm okay with it. do your worst.

[mcqueen]

UNVOTE:

[Varsoon]

Wait, Chara, how do we know you stopped the kill and you're not just a scum roleblocker/stopper and that's been on Skitter and you're taking credit for kill hitting my commute?