Micro 850: Follow the Leader (Game Over)

[volxen]

VOTE: TheGoldenParadox

Because

green

is superior to

gold.

[volxen]

Feel free to eat me if you want.

VOTE: Volxen

So we meet again, Yellowsnow. I think I know why you chose to vote for me

[volxen]

No comment on the L-1 wagon?

It's not exactly a "normal" L-1 wagon, considering you are voting for yourself, and you enticed Penguin to join your wagon.

On a serious note. Maybe rushing a no lynch isn't terrible for us.
thoughts?

Except a no-lynch

IS

terrible, especially on day one, as it means we go into day two with no new information and we have a 0% chance of lynching scum. Why would you even suggest a no-lynch?

[volxen]

VOTE: Vedith

Suggesting that a no-lynch "isn't terrible" on page one is fairly fishy.

[volxen]

VOTE: PenguinPower
Okay, PP actually rolled Scum this game.

Care to elaborate? Why do you think Penguin is scum?

[volxen]

No comment on the L-1 wagon?

It's not exactly a "normal" L-1 wagon, considering you are voting for yourself, and you enticed Penguin to join your wagon.

On a serious note. Maybe rushing a no lynch isn't terrible for us.
thoughts?

Except a no-lynch

IS

terrible, especially on day one, as it means we go into day two with no new information and we have a 0% chance of lynching scum. Why would you even suggest a no-lynch?

And by the way I was actually expecting an answer from you on this, @Vedith. Here is a post that objectively explains why a no-lynch is terrible, especially on day one in a game with an odd number of players:

viewtopic.php?p=4024952#p4024952

Let's take your classic newbie setup, as an example.
7 town
2 scum

Let's say that the town decide to NL D1, but lynch every day from then, and scum also kills every night.
Day 2: 6 town, 2 scum. (25% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 4 town, 2 scum. (33% chance of hitting scum)

Now let's say town lynch D1:
D2: 5 town, 2 scum. (28.5% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum. (40% chance of hitting scum)

As you can see, the town have a greater chance of hitting scum if they lynch anyone D1. There's some rule about that, it's in the wiki somewhere.
This is just from a statistical PoV, but lynching D1 is almost always better.



Ninja'd >_> What Zach said.

I think this kind of suggestion is more likely to come from scum trying to appear towny rather than from town, especially since you quickly flip-flopped from suggesting a speed lynch to suggesting a no-lynch. So far you are the most scummy player from my point of view, so you need to start towning it up if I am wrong in my initial read of you.

[volxen]

No we're not outing the IC day 1 and that's even more scummy than my idea.
After PP is lynched today I will be on you tomorrow.

TGP's plan itself is solid, though there may be some room for debate as far as which

day

we should start enacting the plan. I'll be posting some analysis soon of different scenarios of how things could play out (This will be my first of many wallposts in this game! Yay!) depending upon which day we start enacting the plan.

[volxen]

Auro replaces Henric!

Auro, you better be town because I don't want to deal with scum!you. Start towning it up buddy.

[volxen]

VOTE: vedith

You just quickhammered Vedith without giving him a chance to respond to his wagon. Why?

[volxen]

We can look at how TGP's plan play's out in a few scenarios. In particular, let's look at how his plan plays out in the worst-case scenario: where we have two back-to-back mislynches on day one and day two even in spite of enacting his plan:

For simplicity, in this example the nine players in the game are {town leader, townie A, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}.

Scenario: We start enacting TGP’s plan on day one (we cannot do this anymore)

Day 1: The living players are {town leader, townie A, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. Townie A is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie A correctly identifies the town leader, and townie B, the second most scummy player, heals townie A and corroborates their story about who the town leader is. A new wagon starts against townie C -- they correctly identify the town leader as well, but no one believes them due to the claims already made by townie A and townie B. So townie C is mislynched.

Night 1: The town leader is nightkilled.

Day 2: The living players are {townie A, townie B, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. Townie A is confirmed town, and townie B is at least a strong lean town. Townie D is mislynched.

Night 2: Townie A is nightkilled.

Day 3: it is 3v2 lylo. The living players are {townie B, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. So at a minimum, if we enacted TGP's plan starting on day one, we are at least guaranteed that the strong townlean (the person who healed the townie who was about to be lynched on day one) makes it to 3v2 lylo. Not too bad, considering this is the worst-case scenario where two townies were mislynched back-to-back on day one and day two even in spite of enacting TGP's plan, and the town leader was outted on day one and nightkilled on night one. If townie E and townie F believe that townie B is town, then there is still a 50% chance of lynching scum here.

Alternative scenario: We start enacting TGP's plan on day two

Day one: The living players are {town leader, townie A, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. Townie A is ran up to L-1 and intent to hammer is placed. We don't enact TGP's plan on day one, so townie A is mislynched.

Night one: Townie F is nightkilled.

Day two: The living players are {town leader, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, scum A, and scum B}. Townie B is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie B correctly identifies the town leader, and townie C, the second most scummy player, heals townie B and corroborates their story about who the town leader is. A new wagon starts against townie D -- they correctly identify the town leader as well, but no one believes them due to the claims already made by townie B and townie C. So townie D is mislynched.

Night two: Town leader is nightkilled.

Day three: It is 3v2 lylo. The living players are {townie B, townie C, townie E, scum A, and scum B}. Townie B is confirmed town, and townie C is a strong town lean due to the fact that he healed townie B and corroborated their story on who the town leader was. If both townie B and townie E believe that townie C is town, then one of {townie E, scum A, or scum B} is going to be lynched and we have a 2/3 (~67% chance) of lynching scum here. Let's say that scum A is lynched here.

Night three: Townie B (confirmed town) is nightkilled.

Day four: It is 2v1 lylo. The living players are {Townie C, townie E, and scum B}. Again, if townie E still believes that townie C is town, then one of {townie E or scum B} will be lynched and we have a 1/2 (50% chance) of lynching scum here.

So at a minimum, if we start enacting TGP's plan on day two then we will have a confirmed townie and a strong townlean in 3v2 lylo, and a strong townlean in 2v1 lylo.

Alternative scenario: We don't start enacting TGP's plan until lylo (day 3)

Day 1: The living players are {town leader, townie A, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. Townie A is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie A is mislynched.

Night one: Townie F is nightkilled.

Day two: The living players are {town leader, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, scum A, and scum B}. Townie B is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie B is mislynched.

Night two: Townie E is nightkilled.

Day three: It is 3v2 lylo. The living players are {town leader, townie C, townie D, scum A, and scum B}. Townie C is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie C correctly identifies the town leader, and townie D, the second most scummy player, heals townie C and corroborates their story. A new wagon starts against scum A -- they correctly identify the town leader as well, but no one believes them due to the claims already made by townie C and townie D. So scum A is lynched.

Night three: Town leader is nightkilled.

Day four: It is 2v1 lylo. The living players are {townie C, townie D, and scum B}. Townie C is confirmed town, and townie D is a strong townlean due to healing townie C and corroborating their story of who the town leader was when they were about to get lynched. If townie C believes that townie D is town, then there is a 100% chance of correctly lynching scum B here.

So in 3v2 lylo we have two confirmed townies (the town leader and townie C) and one strong townlean (townie D). In 2v1 lylo, we have one confirmed townie (townie C) and one strong townlean (townie D).

Granted, this doesn't consider every single possible scenario -- for example, the town leader could still be nightkilled prior to being outted. Although the plan still works even if the town leader does get nightkilled prior to them being outted, since scum will only see “vanilla townie” when they flip. Additionally, the town leader is in the unique position of being able to be scummy and still be 100% lynch proof, so they can do things to help avoid getting nightkilled prior to them being outted. And in order for the plan to work, all townies definitely have to avoid make any obvious crumbs of the who the townleader is in their ISO.

TGP’s plan itself is solid, the debate should only be about which day we start enacting the plan. I definitely think there is merit to the notion of starting to his enact plan on day two, because one potential problem with waiting until day 3/lylo is that scum may simply correctly identify or make a very educated guess about who the town leader is on day 3/lylo. For example, at that point scum could 100% rule out any mislynched townies as definitely

NOT

being the town leader, and so they would only have to chose among the remaining living townies as well as townies that they have nightkilled. There will also be more readable content in the game at that time, so it would arguably be easier for scum to get a correct read on who the town leader is at that stage of the game. So if we wait until day 3/lylo to start enacting TGP’s plan, then it’s highly debatable as to whether anyone could truly become “100% confirmed town” via being the first person to correctly identify the town leader.

[volxen]

We can look at how TGP's plan play's out in a few scenarios. In particular, let's look at how his plan plays out in the worst-case scenario: where we have two back-to-back mislynches on day one and day two even in spite of enacting his plan:

For simplicity, in this example the nine players in the game are {town leader, townie A, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}.

Scenario: We start enacting TGP’s plan on day one (we cannot do this anymore)

Day 1: The living players are {town leader, townie A, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. Townie A is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie A correctly identifies the town leader, and townie B, the second most scummy player, heals townie A and corroborates their story about who the town leader is. A new wagon starts against townie C -- they correctly identify the town leader as well, but no one believes them due to the claims already made by townie A and townie B. So townie C is mislynched.

Night 1: The town leader is nightkilled.

Day 2: The living players are {townie A, townie B, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. Townie A is confirmed town, and townie B is at least a strong lean town. Townie D is mislynched.

Night 2: Townie A is nightkilled.

Day 3: it is 3v2 lylo. The living players are {townie B, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. So at a minimum, if we enacted TGP's plan starting on day one, we are at least guaranteed that the strong townlean (the person who healed the townie who was about to be lynched on day one) makes it to 3v2 lylo. Not too bad, considering this is the worst-case scenario where two townies were mislynched back-to-back on day one and day two even in spite of enacting TGP's plan, and the town leader was outted on day one and nightkilled on night one. If townie E and townie F believe that townie B is town, then there is still a 50% chance of lynching scum here.

Alternative scenario: We start enacting TGP's plan on day two

Day one: The living players are {town leader, townie A, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. Townie A is ran up to L-1 and intent to hammer is placed. We don't enact TGP's plan on day one, so townie A is mislynched.

Night one: Townie F is nightkilled.

Day two: The living players are {town leader, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, scum A, and scum B}. Townie B is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie B correctly identifies the town leader, and townie C, the second most scummy player, heals townie B and corroborates their story about who the town leader is. A new wagon starts against townie D -- they correctly identify the town leader as well, but no one believes them due to the claims already made by townie B and townie C. So townie D is mislynched.

Night two: Town leader is nightkilled.

Day three: It is 3v2 lylo. The living players are {townie B, townie C, townie E, scum A, and scum B}. Townie B is confirmed town, and townie C is a strong town lean due to the fact that he healed townie B and corroborated their story on who the town leader was. If both townie B and townie E believe that townie C is town, then one of {townie E, scum A, or scum B} is going to be lynched and we have a 2/3 (~67% chance) of lynching scum here. Let's say that scum A is lynched here.

Night three: Townie B (confirmed town) is nightkilled.

Day four: It is 2v1 lylo. The living players are {Townie C, townie E, and scum B}. Again, if townie E still believes that townie C is town, then one of {townie E or scum B} will be lynched and we have a 1/2 (50% chance) of lynching scum here.

So at a minimum, if we start enacting TGP's plan on day two then we will have a confirmed townie and a strong townlean in 3v2 lylo, and a strong townlean in 2v1 lylo.

Alternative scenario: We don't start enacting TGP's plan until lylo (day 3)

Day 1: The living players are {town leader, townie A, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. Townie A is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie A is mislynched.

Night one: Townie F is nightkilled.

Day two: The living players are {town leader, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, scum A, and scum B}. Townie B is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie B is mislynched.

Night two: Townie E is nightkilled.

Day three: It is 3v2 lylo. The living players are {town leader, townie C, townie D, scum A, and scum B}. Townie C is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie C correctly identifies the town leader, and townie D, the second most scummy player, heals townie C and corroborates their story. A new wagon starts against scum A -- they correctly identify the town leader as well, but no one believes them due to the claims already made by townie C and townie D. So scum A is lynched.

Night three: Town leader is nightkilled.

Day four: It is 2v1 lylo. The living players are {townie C, townie D, and scum B}. Townie C is confirmed town, and townie D is a strong townlean due to healing townie C and corroborating their story of who the town leader was when they were about to get lynched. If townie C believes that townie D is town, then there is a 100% chance of correctly lynching scum B here.

So in 3v2 lylo we have two confirmed townies (the town leader and townie C) and one strong townlean (townie D). In 2v1 lylo, we have one confirmed townie (townie C) and one strong townlean (townie D).

Granted, this doesn't consider every single possible scenario -- for example, the town leader could still be nightkilled prior to being outted. Although the plan still works even if the town leader does get nightkilled prior to them being outted, since scum will only see “vanilla townie” when they flip. Additionally, the town leader is in the unique position of being able to be scummy and still be 100% lynch proof, so they can do things to help avoid getting nightkilled prior to them being outted. And in order for the plan to work, all townies definitely have to avoid make any obvious crumbs of the who the townleader is in their ISO.

TGP’s plan itself is solid, the debate should only be about which day we start enacting the plan. I definitely think there is merit to the notion of starting to his enact plan on day two, because one potential problem with waiting until day 3/lylo is that scum may simply correctly identify or make a very educated guess about who the town leader is on day 3/lylo. For example, at that point scum could 100% rule out any mislynched townies as definitely

NOT

being the town leader, and so they would only have to chose among the remaining living townies as well as townies that they have nightkilled. There will also be more readable content in the game at that time, so it would arguably be easier for scum to get a correct read on who the town leader is at that stage of the game. So if we wait until day 3/lylo to start enacting TGP’s plan, then it’s highly debatable as to whether anyone could truly become “100% confirmed town” via being the first person to correctly identify the town leader.

Wow.
That was a lot.
I believe that this is all correct, except the final part.
By Day 3, 2 people will be scumkilled, and 3 townies will be existing. This gives scum about a 1/3 chance of guessing correctly assuming that they can rule out two townies, but considering what actually goes on, it's more like 1/2. We'll generate 1 conftown (leader) 1 strong townlean (town C) and 1 medium townlean (D)on day 3, rather than the 2 conftown + 1 strong townlean day 2. It's a hard decision.

If we are talking about what scum can be 100% certain of, then the only people they can eliminate as townleader candidates are mislynched townies. All living townies and all nightkilled townies can potentially be the townleader from scum's POV. So by the time the game gets to 3v2 lylo, two townies have been mislynched and two townies have been nightkilled. So at that point in the game, if scum were to randomly guess who the townleader is, they would have a 1/5 (20%) chance of guessing correctly (because they are guessing between the 3 living townies and the 2 nightkilled townies). Of course, the argument here is that scum is more

likely

to make an educated guess as to who the townleader is due to the game being further along. That's why waiting longer to start enacting your plan is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, we can

theoretically

get more confirmed townies and strong townleans further along in the game by waiting to day 3 to start enacting your plan. In practice, the problem with that is that the longer we wait to start enacting your plan, the more likely the plan is to fail and allow at least one scum to falsely become "100% confirmed town" by correctly identifying the town leader by simply making an educated guess based on all of the available information at that point in the game.

In the grand scheme of things, your plan can really only be used to prevent one townie from being mislynched (in other words, it's not repeatable), because as soon as one townie who is about to be mislynched correctly identifies the townleader and everyone no longer wants to lynch them, it's going to be blatantly obvious to the scumteam who the townleader is. And I think waiting until day 3 to start enacting your plan is fairly dangerous because the likelihood of falsely confirming scum as town increases, so we should start enacting your plan today. Do you agree?

[volxen]

If Auro is somehow townlocked, I must be missing it, because I'm not seeing it.

[volxen]

Actually, I think I know what is being referred to, I just hope this isn't scum!Auro hard bluffing.

Yes, I agree with your overall assessment that the scumteam is among {Penguin, TTTT, Auro} by POE, and I also agree that the Not_Mafia nightkill makes sense from the perspective of scum!Penguin.

[volxen]

Athena, what are your overall thoughts on TGP's plan? Do you think we should start enacting TGP's plan today, meaning that we should have Penguin say who he thinks the town leader is before lynching him?

[volxen]

Volxen, I may be annoyed at you post game.

Does this tell you anything?

Dude, I'm always going to be paranoid about you after Newbie 1893, and like everything seems to be within your scumrange, lol.

But like I said, I believe I know what is being referred to, and Penguin is very likely scum here.

[volxen]

I would at least like to know that everyone is on board with the solve of {Penguin, TTTT, Auro} (with Penguin/TTTT being the most likely scumteam) before ending the day, that way the game moves forward in the same direction regardless of who gets nightkilled.

[volxen]

Nah - I'd say if PP flips town it suggests the gamestate is compromised for town, and our PoE won't be wholly valid.

If Penguin somehow flips town, then TGP's plan should definitely be enacted on day 3/lylo. I'm pretty sure that would also mean that you are scum...

[volxen]

VOTE: PenguinPower

Penguin is at L-1.

Don't self-hammer if you are town Penguin.

[volxen]

Mostly I don't agree with you on the fact that this is AITP-style. If it were, my claiming strategy wouldn't work.

I have concerns that if Penguin flips town then the gamestate may be compromised and the plan won't work anymore.

[volxen]

Should I go ahead and just hammer? I do think TTTT is most likely scum. Should we have TTTT say who he thinks the town leader is, or just hammer?

[volxen]

Athena, thoughts? Should we just quickhammer TTTT? The only reason not to quickhammer him IMO is if we see value in having him say who he thinks the town leader is.

[volxen]

Here is what i am convinced of:

1) Yellowsnow is 100% locktown. I can explain why, because frankly I feel there is no longer any need to keep the identity of the town leader a "secret". In fact if TTTT is actually town somehow, then playing as if scum doesn't know who the town leader is when they really do know only benefits them.

2) TTTT is probably scum, but I am not 100% convinced of this.

3) If Auro or COA is scum, they 100% know who the town leader is, and have known since day 2 or even earlier. If one of them is scum, they hard-bussed Penguin and had Penguin continue to play on day 2 as if he didn't know who the town leader was.

Like I said I can spell everything out if need be.

[volxen]

Auro, you are convinced that if TTTT isn't scum, then the last remaining scum knows who the town leader is, yes? So do you have any objections to me "revealing" who the town leader is? Because I would need to do so to explain why I have Yellowsnow as locktown.

[volxen]

No; I want YellowSnow to reveal TL.

So you think it's possible that Yellowsnow is not only scum, but

still

doesn't know who the town leader is? Why would asking Yellowsnow who the town leader is be any more revealing than asking TTTT? You said earlier that it would essentially be pointless to ask TTTT this question, so I'm not seeing why it would be worthwhile to ask it of Yellowsnow.

Even without me spelling it out, you should see why there is a

very

strong case for why Yellowsnow is locktown.

[volxen]

@Volx: Lol no, there's a very specific possibility you're omitting which I think CoA sees too.
YellowSnow should be the one claiming.

Even taking into account Yellowsnow's day one play? In any case, are you telling me you are convinced the last remaining scum is either TTTT or Yellowsnow? Do you have both COA and I as locktown? If so, then there is no need for Yellowsnow to reveal the Town leader.

And would Yellowsnow correctly identifying the town leader at such a late state in the game (3-player lylo) change him from a possible scum suspect to locktown anyways?

[volxen]

I don't see how both you and COA are mutually coming to the conclusion that Yellowsnow is more likely to be scum than one another. The combination of 1) Yellowsnow being scum and 2)

STILL

not knowing who the town leader is also seems ridiculously far-fetched.

Hint:

If scum has paying very close attention to this game, especially to day one, they could deduce who the town leader is, and that would have guided their play on day two.

[volxen]

Yellowsnow's day one play makes much more sense from a town!POV than from a scum!POV.

[volxen]

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=78419

That's a link to Newbie 1913, which Yellowsnow and I played together very recently. Take a look at it if you have time; his day one play here is more likely to come from town!him than scum!him. Scum!him would not have the confidence to quickhammer on day one of this game after what happened to him on day one of Newbie 1913.

[volxen]

Auro, let's say that I am nightkilled, and 3-player lylo is you, Athena, and Yellowsnow. Yellowsnow correctly identifies the town leader. Would that in and of itself actually make you more inclined to lynch Athena? Because I am getting the impression that you believe that scum!Yellowsnow is far more likely than scum!Athena. You seem to be hoping for the specific scenario where he incorrectly identifies the town leader and therefore becomes confirmed scum, but it seems like you would lynch him over COA regardless of whether he correctly identifies the town leader or not. That's why I don't see why you suddenly want to follow TGP's plan with respect to Yellowsnow specifically.

[volxen]

Hint: If scum has been paying very close attention to this game, especially to day one, they could deduce who the town leader is, and that would have guided their "towny" play on day two.

Auro and COA, I really want you both to think about that with respect to how you both are mutually reading each other. If scum deduced during night one who the town leader is based on certain events that transpired on day one, then the things that happened on day two that caused you both to townread each other so strongly are thrown out the window.

Believe me, I want this game to be a simple solve of PenguinPower/TTTT. We already had our Starcraft 2 game against one extreme deepwolf (Alchemist) and one semi deepwolf (Pint), so I don't really want to have to deal with that again in this game.

[volxen]

I am 100% convinced that neither member of the scumteam knew who the town leader is on day one. I am convinced that if they were really, really, really paying close attention to day one, then they could have known who the town leader is as early as night one. This is why I have Yellowsnow as locktown,

because day one play is more town indicative than day two play

as the game may have been compromised as early as night one.

[volxen]

Auro his day one play simply makes no sense from a scum perspective. If anything, PenguinPower would have been more likely to quickhammer as scum on day one, as he is much more experienced and would be better able to defend himself post quickhammering. YellowSnow is a relatively brand-new player who just got mislynched as town on day one in Newbie 1913. Even with Penguin's coaching, he's not going to have the confidence to do that as scum.

I don't see how you are so strongly coming to the conclusion that scum!Yellowsnow is more likely than scum!COA. His day one play should hold more weight than COA's day two play based on what I have previously said.

[volxen]

I am saying that out of {Auro, COA, Yellowsnow}, Yellowsnow is the only one out of you three who did something on

DAY ONE THAT IS STRONGLY TOWN INDICATIVE.

[volxen]

Like I honestly don't see how either of you think scum!Yellowsnow is a thing.

Maybe I should just spell everything out, because I think

all of the events that have transpired

in this game suggest that everyone knows who the town leader is anyways.

[volxen]

Dude NO!

Just wait for YS to claim the TL!

Auro, HE IS TOWN. When you look at everything that has transpired in this game, it paints a clear picture that everyone knows who the town leader is.

Surely you must see this.

[volxen]

Jesus christ, it doesn't matter, TTTT is scum.

Also volxen, you're unambiguously wrong that YS wouldn't quickhammer as scum. I just finished a game where he did exactly that. It doesn't take "confidence" to lolhammer someone as scum.

Confidence issues aside, there is no denying that in the context of this specific game, his quickhammer on page two on day one

MAKES MUCH MORE SENSE

from a town!pov than a scum!pov.

Sure, scum can and do quickhammer in some cases. But think about in this specific game mode, why might a townie who knows who the town leader is suddenly quickhammer like that... on page two... one day one?

[volxen]

No. I did a couple that are strongly town indicative too.

I know exactly what you are referring to with respect to your day one play, but it's not in the same league as far as why Yellowsnow's day one play should make him locktown. If you believe that your day one play should objectively make you locktown, then you should believe that Yellowsnow is locktown as well due to his day one play. In fact, if you are being entirely objective, you would agree with me that Yellowsnow's day one play is more town-indicative than your day one play.

Two people got up to L-1 on day one, one got quickhammered and the other didn't. Think about that distinction and why town!Yellowsnow did he what he did.

[volxen]

Yellowsnow is town here. Be objective, and you will see that he is town. Don't lynch him if this goes to day 4.

[volxen]

@Yellowsnow, If you are on please come in and just state who the town leader is so we can get that part over with. If this game goes to 3-player lylo with {you, Auro, COA}, whichever one of Auro or COA is town will be more likely to believe that you are town if you state who the town leader is now rather than waiting for day four to do that.

I am convinced that you are town because of your day one play, but you will need to convince one of Auro or COA that you are town in the event that this game goes to a fourth day.

[volxen]

And by the way @Yellowsnow, if this game goes to day four then the solve I am leaning towards at the moment is that COA is scum. I've already explained why I have you as locktown. Auro made one post on day one that is

somewhat

town-indicative, but I definitely don't have him as locktown over it, so keep that in mind. Whereas COA didn't even post until day two, and I strongly suspect that scum figured out who the town leader is during night one, so her "towny entrance" on day two could easily be faked if she is scum and already knew who the town leader is.

Think about the events of day one, and you will see what I mean. Scum could definitely deduce who the town leader is based on day one alone.

[volxen]

@Yellowsnow, And what I mean with respect to Auro is, he made one post on day one that on the surface looks like it may have been written from the point of view of someone who knew who the town leader is (and I don't believe that scum figured out who the town leader is until night one), but it could also just be a coincidence that it comes across that way. It's not really definitive unfortunately, but it is probably more likely to come from town!Auro than scum!Auro.

On the other hand, I did find it a bit peculiar that COA came out of the gates on day two with a vote on Auro, only to do a complete 180 on Auro and start pushing Penguin instead after Auro called her out on her vote and basically said that her reasoning for townreading the people in her townblock applied to him as well.

I also don't understand her reversal on you and Auro. At the beginning of day two she was convinced that the entire scumteam was among {Penguin, TTTT, Auro}, and she had you in her locktown pile. Now Auro is in her locktown pile and she thinks you are scum if TTTT flips town.

She presumably had you as locktown on day two because of the context of your quickhammer on day one, as there would be no other reason to townread you based on your day one content. Now she seems to be suggesting that that kind of quickhammer is at least as likely, if not more likely, to come from scum!you rather than town!you. If she believes that, then why did she have you as locktown at the beginning of day two to begin with? Because your quickhammer on day one is literally the only reason why anyone should have you as locktown.

[volxen]

LOL, so it really was the easy solve. Sigh. Sorry COA, but I'm usually inclined to believe that every game has at least one deepwolf, and I thought you could have been it this game. But I also had my supsicions that Auro could have been hardcore deepwolfing as well.

Yeah my goal with that silly RVS vote (voting TGP because "green is superior to gold") was to make it blantantly obvious to all fellow

townies

that I was town, because what are the odds that I would vote for the town leader like that with such a goofy reason on page one? I felt that every single townie would pick up on it, but scum wouldn't be able to make sense of it, because to the uninformed (i.e., scum) it looks like just another silly RVS vote. Although I suppose there's the argument that the whole bit about "green vs gold" was bit a risky, because green is the color associated with town (which is also my favorite color!), and perhaps I was indirectly saying "Hey, I know you have a green role PM TGP". But I didn't think scum could confidently make that assumption based on that alone, and I felt it was entirely worth it to get myself locked in as town right off the bat on early day one.

Funny enough, I placed an RVS vote for Yellowsnow for the exact same reason in Newbie 1913 ("green is a better color than yellow"). I knew I wanted to crumb right off the bat on day one that I knew TGP was the town leader, but I remembered my RVS vote from Newbie 1913 and decided to do the same thing here with respect to TGP.

Link to Newbie 1913: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=78419

Link to my RVS vote in Newbie 1913: viewtopic.php?p=10673889#p10673889

Now the reason why I defended town!Yellowsnow so hard is because of this sequence:

Okay.
The game mechanic can be used to confirm two or more people.
When we have someone we would otherwise lynch, we force them to say who town leader is.
We then force the second most scummy player to confirm the town leader.
Town then votes HEAL or HURT, if that is the correct answer or not.
If they get it correct, both the first person and the town leader are ICs - generating 2 ICs.
The second is not confirmed, but should be leantown.
If the first one gets it incorrect, and the second one disagrees, we have 1 conf scum, and can repeat this process.
If the first one gets it incorrect, and the second one agrees, we have 2 conf scum and can repeat.
If the first one gets it correct, and the second one disagrees, we have 1 conf scum (player 2) and 2 conf town (player 1 + town leader)
Only breadcrumb town leader if you know you can do it without mafia figuring out and it can only be seen if you explain it.
VOTE: Vedith because first you suggest not only a nolynch, but a SPEED nolynch, and then follow it up with 26 and 27.

No we're not outing the IC day 1 and that's even more scummy than my idea.

After PP is lynched today I will be on you tomorrow.

So far Volxen is town

TGP Scum lean

PP Scum

Im winning this for us.

VOTE: vedith

Cause he's scum.

You should know why I voted him.

Simply, it came down to the question of, "What would drive a townie to quickhammer someone on page two on day one?" The only logical explanation that made sense is because Vedith inadvertently made it look like he didn't know who the town leader is by pretending to scumread TGP. Vedith talks about lynching PenguinPower on day one, and TGP on day two. Auro, Not_Mafia, and Yellowsnow all vote him back-to-back after that post, with Yellowsnow being the hammer voter. That is why Yellowsnow was the only person I had as 100% locktown. Yellowsnow objectively had more town equity than Auro because while Auro joined as the third voter on a wagon that could have easily dissolved if Vedith had been given a chance to town it up, Yellowsnow is the one who took Vedith out after he listed TGP as a scumread. And COA didn't even post until day two, and with my theory that scum figured out who the town leader is on night one, that absolutely meant that Yellowsnow objectively had more town equity than COA as well. The sequence of events on day one clearly demonstrated that Yellowsnow

KNEW

TGP was the town leader, and that was the one and only reason why he quickhammered Vedith (and also why he didn't quickhammer Not_Mafia, who also got up to L-1).

Now I had my suspicions that Vedith could have been town, but playing a more advanced game of pretending to scumread the town leader to throw off scum. It's definitely a gambity play because it makes you look like scum via being uninformed, but at the same time it's not really good if everyone has the townleader as locktown. So I understand why he did it, and that's why I genuinely didn't want Yellowsnow to lolhammer like he did, but I nevertheless fully understood

WHY

town!Yellowsnow would pull that move.

On the other hand, Auro made this post on day one:

I'm not commenting on plans just yet.

Volxen, you should avoid posting analysis right now - you'd only end up telling scum how to play, and I think the reveal should happen lategame, by which point there's a wealth of content.

Townread on Volxen, pretty good at reading him.

Vedith's early posts were troll posts - uncomfortable with his transition to "serious" play, I can roll with this wagon.


VOTE: Vedith

Because Auro and I have so much history together (between playing against each other and hydraing together), I wasn't convinced that day one post from him was 100% proof that he is town, because I could see scum!Auro entering the game by fake townreading me and coming up with a reason to insert himself onto the Vedith wagon ("uncomfortable with his transition to serious play"). Especially because I was already on the wagon, and in this game it's much more safe to

join

an existing wagon as scum rather than to

start

a new one, since you run the risk of inadvertently pushing and starting a wagon on the town leader. As town it makes complete sense why he would say this, but I also thought it was entirely possible that he was scum, didn't know who the town leader was on day one, and it just ended up that his whole "uncomfortable with his transition to serious play" was an odd coincidence that made him look like he knew who the town leader was when he really didn't. If Auro had somehow crumbed or referred to TGP directly one day one, I probably would have had him as locktown as well, but he didn't take it that far. Then I reasoned that if Auro is scum, he knew by night one who the town leader is by looking at

WHY

Yellowsnow lolhammered Vedith (there is only one reason why town!Yellowsnow would do this), so he came out of the gates on day two by saying "look for a chain" (see posts 65 and 67), knowing that he inadvertently made himself look like he knew who the town leader was on day one when he really didn't, and was capitalizing on that to get himself falsely locked in as town. Believe me, I've played with Auro enough and I know that if he was scum in this game, he would have been able to deduce that TGP is the town leader via Yellowsnow's quickhammer of Vedith, and he would capitalize on anything he did on day one that arguably made it look like he knew who the town leader is, even though scum!Auro wouldn't have known who the town leader is on day one. I also think scum!Auro probably would open with fake townreading me as opposed to fake scumreading me, as it's easier for him to do that given all of our history together, and it probably makes me less inclined to case him as hard as I would if he were to falsely push me as a scumread.

That's what I was trying to get across during day 3 as far as why Yellowsnow was the only person I had as 100% locktown.

[volxen]

for future runs
I suggest TL flips as TL, not VT
it's way too easy to get mechanical clears in mylo/lylo without that change

That would make it unbalanced and heavily scumsided though. For example if you look at the setup used in newbie games (see: viewtopic.php?p=10668408#p10668408), which are also 7-town vs 2-mafia, in column C where there are two mafia goon's there is either one really powerful town power role (Town Cop or Town Jailkeeper), or two weaker town power roles (Town Tracker and Town Doctor). This game doesn't have any town power roles, so its balance is entirely contingent on the fact that it's possible for the town leader to never become 100% confirmed to scum, depending upon how town plays of course. Having the town leader forced to play in such a way to where they have to avoid the spotlight to avoid getting nightkilled isn't really ideal, because the one person who is confirmed town (the town leader) shouldn't have to hold back their content just to avoid getting nightkilled. If the game worked that way, then the town leader has to make a choice between truly "leading" the town and thus getting nightkilled, or purposefully holding back their content so that someone else eats the nightkill each night. Considering this game completely lacks any true town power role, I think that would favor scum too much. This game is intentionally supposed to be "backwards Mafia", with an informed majority (town) vs an uninformed minority (scum). In my opinion the game shouldn't be about scum trying to identify the town leader via nightkills, it should be about scum making informed deductions about who is more likely to be the town leader vs who is less likely via how the townies interact towards one another. In this game, for example, it was absolutely possible for scum to make a

VERY

informed deduction that TGP was the town leader on night one when looking at why Yellowsnow lolhammered Vedith immediately after he listed Penguin and TGP as scumreads on day one (Penguin was scum, so the only thing that makes sense from scum's POV is that he was quickhammered because he listed TGP as a scumread).

Basically like COA said, as town this game is about trying to form a townblock by identifying people who clearly are posting in such a way that they

KNOW

who the town leader is (that's why I think it's important to find a way to somehow crumb that you know who the town leader is on day one, because the later you do this the less believable it becomes). As scum, you have to approach this game similar to how you would approach town in a "normal" game, in the sense that you have to try to accurately read people to determine who the town leader is (although in a “normal” game of Mafia scum still has to try and read people if they want to identify the town power roles). In a normal 7-town vs 2-mafia game it's very unlikely that town will catch BOTH scum with town power roles alone; usually correctly reading at least one scum anyways is required to win the game. So I think it's fair here that scum has to correctly identify the town leader before lylo if they 1) don't want the town leader to make it to lylo and 2) don't want plans like TGP's plan to be used against them to reveal them as scum (i.e., by revealing that they don't know who the town leader is even though they already nightkilled the town leader but are unaware of this fact).

[volxen]

I was killed n1 and that means I'm the best

Yes, you're MVP because you managed to plant the idea that you were the town leader just because you and Yellowsnow back-to-back voted Vedith. Well done!

Have you ever been nightkilled on night one before Not_Mafia? That legitimately was probably the most shocking moment in the game.

[volxen]

@Volx: The NM NK was indicative of scum wrongly having guessed the TL (which was why I was adamant about YS claiming).

NM was a bad NK also because there wasn't enough reason to townblock him; same would've applied to CoA but luckily she posted the PoE immediately.

@Auro that is one possible theory, but the Not_Mafia nightkill in and of itself didn't prove that that

had

to be the reason why they killed him. Day one went arguably very well for scum with a townie getting mislynched on page two. Even if they had figured out that TGP was the town leader on night one, killing him on night one would have been incredibly risky, because then everyone starts to wonder if the game has already been compromised. The main thing is that scum can't afford for TGP to make it all the way to lylo (well, unless they are incredibly confident that they can get TGP to sheep them), but that doesn't mean they have to kill him right away. It makes sense that if COA and Penguin were scum together, and they figured out that TGP was the town leader on night one, that they make an extremely WIFOMy nightkill on night one by nightkilling Not_Mafia (I think it would be fair to say that in general nightkilling Not_Mafia is bound to generate WIFOM), and have COA come out of the gates on day two looking like locktown who has already solved the game. To further her "locktown" status, she starts by hard-bussing Penguin (who's day one play was highly indicative of the fact that he did NOT know who the town leader was anyways), and then sets up TTTT and Yellowsnow as back-to-back mislynches. That was my scum!COA theory if TTTT had flipped town.

Auro, couldn't you see yourself making a play like that if you were scum, and you deduced that TGP was the town leader on night one? I don't think scum!You would necessarily nightkill him right away, because you would see the benefit of trying to falsely establish yourself as "confirmed town" or at least "nearly confirmed town" at the beginning of day two. It would be easier for you to do that on day two if TGP were still alive, because no one could reasonably argue that the game was already compromised at that point.

And as our Starcraft 2 game proved, sometimes leaving confirmed town alive can actually benefit scum. After all, Varsoon was outed as the town-aligned vigilante on day one, and he survived four consecutive night phases without being nightkilled and survived all the way to five-player lylo.

[volxen]

Even if they had figured out that TGP was the town leader on night one, killing him on night one would have been incredibly risky, because then everyone starts to wonder if the game has already been compromised.

The main thing is that scum can't afford for TGP to make it all the way to lylo (well, unless they are incredibly confident that they can get TGP to sheep them), but that doesn't mean they have to kill him right away. It makes sense that if COA and Penguin were scum together, and they figured out that TGP was the town leader on night one, that they make an extremely WIFOMy nightkill on night one by nightkilling Not_Mafia (I think it would be fair to say that in general nightkilling Not_Mafia is bound to generate WIFOM), and have COA come out of the gates on day two looking like locktown who has already solved the game. To further her "locktown" status, she starts by hard-bussing Penguin (who's day one play was highly indicative of the fact that he did NOT know who the town leader was anyways), and then sets up TTTT and Yellowsnow as back-to-back mislynches. That was my scum!COA theory if TTTT had flipped town.

No... sorry. I really don't think any of that makes sense at all. I don't really see the benefit to not killing the TL as soon as possible if you believe you know their identity. For one, you'll probably be able to tell if you're right or wrong the following day, and it's a big gamble if you're not right.

That plan also doesn't really make a lot of sense. Like, maybe if I was some nth degree scum player... but probably not. If we already know the TL, why not have both of us just act like we're town?

Anyways. Doesn't really matter given that the game didn't go that way at all, but I do think that that kind of wild theorizing tends to distract you from the often simpler actual solution.

Well Auro is an nth degree scum player, so I think he would have done it if he were scum in this game. I don't think he would have necessarily nightkilled Not_Mafia specifically, but I think he wouldn't have nightkilled the town leader on night one. And you've been on the site for a while and I've never played with you, so I thought I should assume the possibility that you might be an nth degree scum player as well.

If I was scum and figured out who the town leader was on night one, and if I had thought of a plan like that that early on, I would have definitely at least suggested it to my scumbuddy. I don't know though whether I would have become 100% convinced of TGP being the town leader based on day one play alone if I were scum in this game, or if I would have thought of such a plan like that at that early stage of the game.

And it didn't distract me from the simplest solution (that TTTT was scum, which I still believed most likely was the case), rather you being scum was the only logical explanation that made sense if TTTT was somehow town. Yellowsnow was 100% confirmed town from my point of view, and Auro was not confirmed town, but he was a lot less likely than you to be scum because of that one post he made on day one.

I'm happy the simple solution ended up being the correct solution (not every single game needs to have deepwolves!), but I do wish TTTT would have participated in the game instead of being a recluse.