Micro 850: Follow the Leader (Game Over)

[volxen]

VOTE: Vedith

Suggesting that a no-lynch "isn't terrible" on page one is fairly fishy.

[Vedith]

VOTE: PenguinPower
Okay, PP actually rolled Scum this game.

[Vedith]

And don't even try to impress me with rainbow reads!

[TheGoldenParadox]

Okay.
The game mechanic can be used to confirm two or more people.
When we have someone we would otherwise lynch, we force them to say who town leader is.
We then force the second most scummy player to confirm the town leader.
Town then votes HEAL or HURT, if that is the correct answer or not.
If they get it correct, both the first person and the town leader are ICs - generating 2 ICs.
The second is not confirmed, but should be leantown.
If the first one gets it incorrect, and the second one disagrees, we have 1 conf scum, and can repeat this process.
If the first one gets it incorrect, and the second one agrees, we have 2 conf scum and can repeat.
If the first one gets it correct, and the second one disagrees, we have 1 conf scum (player 2) and 2 conf town (player 1 + town leader)
Only breadcrumb town leader if you know you can do it without mafia figuring out and it can only be seen if you explain it.
VOTE: Vedith because first you suggest not only a nolynch, but a SPEED nolynch, and then follow it up with 26 and 27.

[Vedith]

No we're not outing the IC day 1 and that's even more scummy than my idea.
After PP is lynched today I will be on you tomorrow.

[Vedith]

So far Volxen is town
TGP Scum lean
PP Scum

Im winning this for us.

[Something_Smart]

VC 1.1

Not_Mafia (2)- PenguinPower, Not_Mafia
Vedith (2)- volxen, TheGoldenParadox
volxen (1)- YellowSnow
PenguinPower (1)- Vedith

Not voting (3)- TTTT, Henric, CultOfAthena

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

(expired on 2019-02-26 16:00:00)

Mod notes: Henric has 24 hours from the start of the game to confirm or be replaced.

[volxen]

VOTE: PenguinPower
Okay, PP actually rolled Scum this game.

Care to elaborate? Why do you think Penguin is scum?

[volxen]

No comment on the L-1 wagon?

It's not exactly a "normal" L-1 wagon, considering you are voting for yourself, and you enticed Penguin to join your wagon.

On a serious note. Maybe rushing a no lynch isn't terrible for us.
thoughts?

Except a no-lynch

IS

terrible, especially on day one, as it means we go into day two with no new information and we have a 0% chance of lynching scum. Why would you even suggest a no-lynch?

And by the way I was actually expecting an answer from you on this, @Vedith. Here is a post that objectively explains why a no-lynch is terrible, especially on day one in a game with an odd number of players:

viewtopic.php?p=4024952#p4024952

Let's take your classic newbie setup, as an example.
7 town
2 scum

Let's say that the town decide to NL D1, but lynch every day from then, and scum also kills every night.
Day 2: 6 town, 2 scum. (25% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 4 town, 2 scum. (33% chance of hitting scum)

Now let's say town lynch D1:
D2: 5 town, 2 scum. (28.5% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum. (40% chance of hitting scum)

As you can see, the town have a greater chance of hitting scum if they lynch anyone D1. There's some rule about that, it's in the wiki somewhere.
This is just from a statistical PoV, but lynching D1 is almost always better.



Ninja'd >_> What Zach said.

I think this kind of suggestion is more likely to come from scum trying to appear towny rather than from town, especially since you quickly flip-flopped from suggesting a speed lynch to suggesting a no-lynch. So far you are the most scummy player from my point of view, so you need to start towning it up if I am wrong in my initial read of you.

[Vedith]

And by the way I was actually expecting an answer from you on this

, @Vedith. Here is a post that objectively explains why a no-lynch is terrible, especially on day one in a game with an odd number of players:

Noted.

[Something_Smart]

Auro replaces Henric!

[volxen]

No we're not outing the IC day 1 and that's even more scummy than my idea.
After PP is lynched today I will be on you tomorrow.

TGP's plan itself is solid, though there may be some room for debate as far as which

day

we should start enacting the plan. I'll be posting some analysis soon of different scenarios of how things could play out (This will be my first of many wallposts in this game! Yay!) depending upon which day we start enacting the plan.

[volxen]

Auro replaces Henric!

Auro, you better be town because I don't want to deal with scum!you. Start towning it up buddy.

[Auro]

I'm not commenting on plans just yet.

Volxen, you should avoid posting analysis right now - you'd only end up telling scum how to play, and I think the reveal should happen lategame, by which point there's a wealth of content.

Townread on Volxen, pretty good at reading him.

Vedith's early posts were troll posts - uncomfortable with his transition to "serious" play, I can roll with this wagon.


VOTE: Vedith

[Auro]

VOTE: PenguinPower
Okay, PP actually rolled Scum this game.

Explain.

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Vedith

[YellowSnow]

VOTE: vedith

[volxen]

VOTE: vedith

You just quickhammered Vedith without giving him a chance to respond to his wagon. Why?

[YellowSnow]

Cause he's scum.

[Something_Smart]

VC 1.FINAL

Vedith (5)- volxen, TheGoldenParadox, Auro, Not_Mafia, YellowSnow

(LYNCH)

Not_Mafia (1)- PenguinPower
PenguinPower (1)- Vedith

Not voting (2)- TTTT, CultOfAthena

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

(expired on 2019-02-26 16:00:00)

Mod notes: A lynch has been achieved![/area]

Vedith was lynched Day 1. He was a...

Spoiler:

Vanilla Townie

Night 1 begins now. Night actions are due in (expired on 2019-02-19 19:00:00).

[Something_Smart]

Not_Mafia,

Vanilla Townie

, was killed Night 1.

[Something_Smart]

VC 2.0

Not voting (7)- TTTT, TheGoldenParadox, Auro, CultOfAthena, YellowSnow, PenguinPower, volxen

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

(expired on 2019-03-01 19:00:00)

Mod notes:

[TheGoldenParadox]

2 people die a cycle. I think we should put my strategy into use today.

[volxen]

We can look at how TGP's plan play's out in a few scenarios. In particular, let's look at how his plan plays out in the worst-case scenario: where we have two back-to-back mislynches on day one and day two even in spite of enacting his plan:

For simplicity, in this example the nine players in the game are {town leader, townie A, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}.

Scenario: We start enacting TGP’s plan on day one (we cannot do this anymore)

Day 1: The living players are {town leader, townie A, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. Townie A is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie A correctly identifies the town leader, and townie B, the second most scummy player, heals townie A and corroborates their story about who the town leader is. A new wagon starts against townie C -- they correctly identify the town leader as well, but no one believes them due to the claims already made by townie A and townie B. So townie C is mislynched.

Night 1: The town leader is nightkilled.

Day 2: The living players are {townie A, townie B, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. Townie A is confirmed town, and townie B is at least a strong lean town. Townie D is mislynched.

Night 2: Townie A is nightkilled.

Day 3: it is 3v2 lylo. The living players are {townie B, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. So at a minimum, if we enacted TGP's plan starting on day one, we are at least guaranteed that the strong townlean (the person who healed the townie who was about to be lynched on day one) makes it to 3v2 lylo. Not too bad, considering this is the worst-case scenario where two townies were mislynched back-to-back on day one and day two even in spite of enacting TGP's plan, and the town leader was outted on day one and nightkilled on night one. If townie E and townie F believe that townie B is town, then there is still a 50% chance of lynching scum here.

Alternative scenario: We start enacting TGP's plan on day two

Day one: The living players are {town leader, townie A, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. Townie A is ran up to L-1 and intent to hammer is placed. We don't enact TGP's plan on day one, so townie A is mislynched.

Night one: Townie F is nightkilled.

Day two: The living players are {town leader, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, scum A, and scum B}. Townie B is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie B correctly identifies the town leader, and townie C, the second most scummy player, heals townie B and corroborates their story about who the town leader is. A new wagon starts against townie D -- they correctly identify the town leader as well, but no one believes them due to the claims already made by townie B and townie C. So townie D is mislynched.

Night two: Town leader is nightkilled.

Day three: It is 3v2 lylo. The living players are {townie B, townie C, townie E, scum A, and scum B}. Townie B is confirmed town, and townie C is a strong town lean due to the fact that he healed townie B and corroborated their story on who the town leader was. If both townie B and townie E believe that townie C is town, then one of {townie E, scum A, or scum B} is going to be lynched and we have a 2/3 (~67% chance) of lynching scum here. Let's say that scum A is lynched here.

Night three: Townie B (confirmed town) is nightkilled.

Day four: It is 2v1 lylo. The living players are {Townie C, townie E, and scum B}. Again, if townie E still believes that townie C is town, then one of {townie E or scum B} will be lynched and we have a 1/2 (50% chance) of lynching scum here.

So at a minimum, if we start enacting TGP's plan on day two then we will have a confirmed townie and a strong townlean in 3v2 lylo, and a strong townlean in 2v1 lylo.

Alternative scenario: We don't start enacting TGP's plan until lylo (day 3)

Day 1: The living players are {town leader, townie A, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, townie F, scum A, and scum B}. Townie A is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie A is mislynched.

Night one: Townie F is nightkilled.

Day two: The living players are {town leader, townie B, townie C, townie D, townie E, scum A, and scum B}. Townie B is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie B is mislynched.

Night two: Townie E is nightkilled.

Day three: It is 3v2 lylo. The living players are {town leader, townie C, townie D, scum A, and scum B}. Townie C is run up to L-1 and intent to hammer has been placed. Townie C correctly identifies the town leader, and townie D, the second most scummy player, heals townie C and corroborates their story. A new wagon starts against scum A -- they correctly identify the town leader as well, but no one believes them due to the claims already made by townie C and townie D. So scum A is lynched.

Night three: Town leader is nightkilled.

Day four: It is 2v1 lylo. The living players are {townie C, townie D, and scum B}. Townie C is confirmed town, and townie D is a strong townlean due to healing townie C and corroborating their story of who the town leader was when they were about to get lynched. If townie C believes that townie D is town, then there is a 100% chance of correctly lynching scum B here.

So in 3v2 lylo we have two confirmed townies (the town leader and townie C) and one strong townlean (townie D). In 2v1 lylo, we have one confirmed townie (townie C) and one strong townlean (townie D).

Granted, this doesn't consider every single possible scenario -- for example, the town leader could still be nightkilled prior to being outted. Although the plan still works even if the town leader does get nightkilled prior to them being outted, since scum will only see “vanilla townie” when they flip. Additionally, the town leader is in the unique position of being able to be scummy and still be 100% lynch proof, so they can do things to help avoid getting nightkilled prior to them being outted. And in order for the plan to work, all townies definitely have to avoid make any obvious crumbs of the who the townleader is in their ISO.

TGP’s plan itself is solid, the debate should only be about which day we start enacting the plan. I definitely think there is merit to the notion of starting to his enact plan on day two, because one potential problem with waiting until day 3/lylo is that scum may simply correctly identify or make a very educated guess about who the town leader is on day 3/lylo. For example, at that point scum could 100% rule out any mislynched townies as definitely

NOT

being the town leader, and so they would only have to chose among the remaining living townies as well as townies that they have nightkilled. There will also be more readable content in the game at that time, so it would arguably be easier for scum to get a correct read on who the town leader is at that stage of the game. So if we wait until day 3/lylo to start enacting TGP’s plan, then it’s highly debatable as to whether anyone could truly become “100% confirmed town” via being the first person to correctly identify the town leader.

[TheGoldenParadox]

Let's go ahead and VOTE: YellowSnow for now.
- only post before is asking about NM's wagon
- quickhammers someone w/o giving chance to explain
- reasoning: "Cause he's scum."