In post 4978, TheBrie wrote:Reads, I meant reads.
Nancy/Dannflor - both town. I know them a little, they don't feel like scum here, and I trust them to read each other.
Taly/Krazy - Taly is my strongest townread. Krazy not quite as strong, mostly because of the doubt of others, but my gut says town.
Those are the pairs I'd like left. I feel much more confident in Krazy town, than Moment town.
I town read SS, I don't Thomas. He rubs me the wrong way (partly due to language which is entirely stupidly NAI), and he feels like he's pulling town apart in some way. Maybe RC is wrong with some of his reads, But DT seems to be against the idea of listening to him. And his aggressive response to some people just feels overdone. Add to that the argument that he had been intending to sit out if he couldn't pair with me, then changed to which ever remaining lady looked townier.
On the other hand, his arguments are logical when you get past his tone.
Pinkball/Dr. Worm Conflicted. The idea of Worm as town appeals to me, and I don't think they're both scum.
Gamma/Pvt - I'd lean more towards Gamma as town, but there's a voice in my head that says it's due to really liking the idea that scum were trying to get Gamma lynched by ICing PVt.
@Everyone
Suppose I left. What's next if Moment and i are both town? How about if I'm town and Moment is scum? I'd like to know how useful the flip information would actually be.
DT being town here is possible even if I emotionally don't want to believe it. I've been burned on that in the marathon in thinking "there's no way someone goes this long as town without reading the setup". His progression into voting you struck me as ... interesting... because he had previously called out PB for possibly perspective slipping, something that I was feeling as well. But I have also seen loud and obnoxious scum simply try to pollute threads into death and it is a strategy that sometimes works.
Actually I've started to feel a lot, lot worse about PB as this literal day has gone on. Earlier today, we were kinda discussing his main, and as things with DT heated up I did argue that he seems to be scummy for the way he presented the DT-S_S pairing outside of meta. He seemed to have some misgivings about outing his main, which is reasonable when you're coming off a recent scum win. Him wanting to not get paranoia'd is reasonable as either alignment. He seemed curious about what I would conclude about his meta with Taly. I felt that seemed natural at the time.
But... I haven't even had that conversation properly with Taly yet. I was playing a guessing game with her
, he suddenly starts pushing me as deepwolf with the strong assertion that Moment flips scum. I feel like there's a chance he panicked after I figured out his main? But I don't know why he panicks about me figuring out his main if he's town here.
In regard to you leaving and a Moment flip, I'm left with four scenarios:
1 -Moment is scum, and Moment is the planned bus with PB as a likely wolf. Scum wanted to push Moment because a) moment isn't here, so why not, and b) because they killed RC, and lynching scum that RC townread would be great towncred. In this scenario, DT maybe flips town but I'd have to think about whether I'm willing to believe it.
2 -Moment is town, and 1 in {PB/Gamma} is power wolfing. In this scenario, DT is ???
3 -Moment is scum, PB is town, and has a really strong read of Moment, and is wrong on me. I have very recently been burned on thinking that players are perspective slipping when they act as though they know what people will flip before they do. Sometimes people are just really pushy about their reads. In this scenario, DT is scum, and PB is wrong.
4 - Moment is town, PB is town. In this scenario PB is wrong, and he is preventing the correct lynch on an almost certainly scum DT by mistake.
I don't really get PB saying I'm the "deep wolf" trying to protect Moment when Moment is in my bottom three pairings and we have three lynches to hit scum. (We have two mislynches and we have to hit scum by the third). So protecting Moment here for me as scum, I mean, it's plausible I would protect an empty scum slot for Wifom, but I don't get why PB goes there right now in his reasoning as the first choice. I kinda feel like, if I was looking at me + Moment from an outside POV, I would not see it, although obviously I'm biased and can't do it, so I'm really struggling to see why PB goes there.
Moment can go whenever. I didn't want to start there because I think the biggest pings I get from him is "I didn't think Moment was this strong as town." Like I feel like lynching him is kinda put-downish in a way because it's saying you don't think he can have a strong town game and I don't like lynching someone just for that reason. Almost all of his townreads have been correct so far which risks being TMI, yes. But I still don't know that THAT TMI based on tonal reads in pre-dance is worse than PB's today, insisting that DT is town and implying that Moment is all but a certain redflip, when neither of those seem at all obvious to me.
I feel like my reads are slightly fucked right now. I am not strongly opposed to scorched earthing some of these slots. I don't want to be a douche to Moment and lynch him before he gets a chance to come back and town up but he's also gone long enough that I don't get why he hasn't been replaced. 5 days is a long time in a quasi-blitz.
I do feel like I have been pushed as a deepwolf a lot this game and I'm not exactly sure I understand why. I think if we sat down and talked about my meta this is like, wildly outside my scum meta range, but I also don't like making it seem like there are trust tells, and it's also the case that my strongest scum games are actually on my alts at this point. I don't really know if I'm the best person to talk about my scum play but this isn't it. Gamma and Pvt have seen my most recent scumgame completion and it was pretty night and day to this.
I don't think a Moment flip solves the game. It's basically a fine PoE lynch that could plausibly hit scum and trying to figure out who was TMIing in regard to the slot might be helpful for discussion on future literal days.
I think a Moment flip right now is weak. Right now I'd prefer to go DT-->PB-->Moment. There's an incredible amount of Wifom around the DT slot, PB has seemed really scummy this literal day. Moment is inertia that is slowing down our flips and if he needs to go for us to get a lynch in and have more time to discuss final pairings then he can go.
