Anime U-Pick: King Size [SEASON FINALE...?]
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NoIn post 2387, Spike and Jet wrote:ank did you specifically wait for a townie slot to replace
I joined the queue around halfway to 2/3 through day 1 actually, I think Ooba was just in the queue first-
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Probably, yeahIn post 2408, Dunnstral wrote:Drixx kind of counterclaimed "ramping doctor" which is likely enough to get him nightkilled for
I would name this as a secondary reason, then-
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reallyIn post 2425, Pink Ball wrote:But the only way you could KNOW half of my reads are right is you are scum and he's town tho-
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are there any specific posts that are especially indicative?In post 2432, Near x Mello wrote:
iso his d2 contentIn post 2430, Ankamius wrote:Why are people voting for Gamma?
I am actually leaning town on that slot.
~Near-
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the same metric I used to correctly read Gamma as scum last time I saw it is ringing town here.In post 2435, Chito and Yuuri wrote:What makes you give Gamma a townlean, Ank?
I will grant that a quick look at her early posting makes it a lot less clear to me, but the recent posting doesn't feel like how I remember scum-her acting at all.-
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idk, I'm not seeing why this is more likely to come from scum than town. I've had moments almost exactly like that one at least a dozen times in the past as town, and I would kinda expect Gamma to already have an explanation ready or at least to try to pass it off with some made up bs rather than backpedal on it like she did.In post 2448, Chito and Yuuri wrote:
Chito: 2435 was for you, Ank.In post 2438, Ankamius wrote:are there any specific posts that are especially indicative?
Unfortunately it does also then require you to find Flavor Leaf's case on N&M, which is summarized in 2187. So the problems people have with Gamma's slot hinge in part in how you think Gamma would respond to 2187.
My concerns with Gamma sheeping FL on N&M partly hinge on how Gamma presented her read of SSBF (Vedith redflip slot), which you can see here:
Spoiler:
In short, for our previous redflip, Gamma said she liked the slot, stalled on explaining why, then backpedaled by saying she townread the slot only because of wallposts, which seems loosely similar to what she was doing irt to FL's posts on N&M this dayphase.-
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ftr Pink Ball and I are talking about FL in the PT
currently I'm completely unconvinced that FL's mindset in there across the game so far is town-motivated, the progression I'm seeing that would make it a town mindset would require town to be significantly behind, which is bizarre for a gamestate where one scum is already dead and he has a masonry PT like he has already claimed the PT to be.
I guess the neverending competing wagons to Vedith could count as reason to want to take over the PT to have everyone rally behind him, but I don't think that's really enough to justify needing to go as far as he did.-
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I kinda feel like she's one of those slots that I will need to sort after I have a rough idea of what the gamestate looks likeIn post 2458, Chito and Yuuri wrote:Would like to hear your initial gutread on Elena when you get a chance even though I don't particularly want to push there right now, just a slot I'm finding hard to settle on a read for and wouldn't mind a fresh take.-
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I especially hate this response now that SSBF is a flipped scum.In post 291, Elena Fisher wrote:
I feel like you might push me considering what I'm about to say, but oh well. I dislike this post mostly because I don't think you really believe this list. It feels like you throwing a list out just to see what sticks. A lot of this feels like a reach anyway. The only reads that seem okay on this are A50 and Mastina. But from what I can tell they have a lot of townreads anyway.In post 246, Chito and Yuuri wrote:Chito:
Page 7 Town OR Scum Who Broke the Rules (but would scum do that?)
Spoiler:
People who did not post on page 7:
That I think are town anyway
Almost50
mastina
That make me wonder -- Is Jet Right?
Spike and Jet (HYDRA: Xtoxm + Creature)
Robert2424
That make me wonder -- Apathetic town or scum that didn't get excited about their role PM:
Super Smash Bros. Fan
Elena Fisher
What do you guys think? Which out of SSBF and Elena is busy town and which is scum that doesn't like their role PM?-
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I don't have a while lot of time currently so I won't comment on most of it, but if your PoE is accurate, I believe you have the exact team nailed since I'm currently townreading both Almost50 and Gamma Emerald.
The Gamma read is pretty simply this: she reacts in a specific way as scum when she feels threatened from my recent experience (I was one of her biggest critics in both of the last games I've seen her scum in) and has reacted pretty similarly as town when she started getting pretty close to a lynch back when I was scum against her in an open a good while back. My overall read of her is that she will lash out when she feels threatened regardless of her alignment, and yet I've noticed that there is significantly less of it now that there's a decent push against her than there was from my skim of her ISO D1. I'd think that scum-her would be feeling very threatened throughout day 2 once she started catching all this suspicion, yet she has been fairly calm and imo most of the points people have against her are just people scumreading her for whatever she does that gets her scumread every game. I don't see it at all.
Almost50, I will 100% be able to catch if I see enough from him. He is a lot harder to read when he's town, but I've had no issues spotting scum-him every time I've seen it. The way the approaches the game is night and day, and currently the 5 or so posts I've seen aren't it so far.-
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Like Almost50 was blatantly scum in police academy because his entire approach was there to look like he was doing something rather than actually doing something. Same thing with Gorkington, both of them had really weird responses to various things in the game and were putting too much thought into pretty useless stuff.
Push strength I can't really comment on, I haven't seen enough recent town play to have an idea where his overall confidence level as town is nowadays. He seemed plenty confident enough in his townreads in that last scumgame I mentioned :P-
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I read through the ISO of a50 in variety hour and it looks like classic scum-A50 to me.
His joking nature and content in the game usually mesh together and just from picking a random point and reading like 10 posts, he had almost exclusively serious content with a single joke post in between.
Plus he was pushing weird role stuff that didn't really matter, so that doesn't help either.-
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Like... if this is as dire a situation as it seems and FL is scum, wouldn't he have seen this kind of thing coming and made steps to prevent it? It seems unlikely to me that he suddenly realized he needed to pocket the entire neighborhood because his entire team got PoEd out after the fact, that sounds like incredibly sloppy scum play from somebody who is supposed to be good at scum.
Plus with all the different wagons D1...-
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Oh, then idkIn post 2506, Near x Mello wrote:what did?
i meant that scum fl would pocket his hood regardless of d1 lynch and poe
~Near
The part that's suspicious to me is that he was playing an entirely different tune d1-
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He was using it as an example to make a point PB
Either way I don't find this compelling at all. It was an off hand comment as an example to make a point. I strongly doubt even sxum partnered with FL would pay too much attention to making sure that part is correct; honestly it's probably a sign that FL is either town or they hadn't discussed the PTs at all (remember no daytalk for scum PT) that he specified more beyond what FL explicitly said. At best it's dead null because the context it was provided in makes it entirely plausible that it was the result of faulty memory or an assumption that became the memory of what he saw.
Either way, it's not a slip.-
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and I'm iffy about your push because I kinda feel like you would've checked the context before pushing it, you're the kind of player that I've seen pick up on subtleties like this, so I'm confused as to how you would've missed that progression since I was able to pick up on it pretty quickly just from reading the two posts and then checking SSBF's ISO.-
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TL;DR
he posts that he leans town on everyone in the PT (assuming he also means A50 since he mentioned beforehand that he was pretty sure A50 had neighborhood access) roughly halfway through p57
on p62 (immediately after the vote count), he has a back and forth with pink ball where he calls the PT a masonry and then responds to an offhand comment by PB asking whether he's pocketing them by saying that he's the one being pocketed if anybody is.
I'll get to the claiming thing next, but it's around this point too with flavor claims (and Morality's p57 post I mentioned earlier also had a negative utility soft claim)-
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I didIn post 2593, Near x Mello wrote:
if you pressed forward after that youd have your text backIn post 2589, Ankamius wrote:I actually was getting to answering the question but then I accidently hit the back button on my mouse so it's all gone
fuck my life
~Near
and I didn't
and I cried-
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I can't shake the feeling that town is being shepherded, though. And with a playerlist like this, I think there's a pretty short timer for scum to kill off all the players that are most likely to catch on to what's happening before they get enough of an advantage to take over the game.In post 2615, mastina wrote:Which is why I want to hold course today; even if our solve isn't right, I feel it is at least MOSTLY right--I feel we are mostly looking in the right places, and with the benefit of roles, flip, and time, we can figure out the small details we initially/currently got wrong to hone in, refine, and perfect the solve.
The way the game is set up right now feels like a trap.-
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Are you certain the vedith lynch wasn't pushed through by scum because it would solidify the rest of their positions?
I'll have to look into how those wagons shifted around to have a better theory about it but I'm not sure how that wagon goes through without scum support based on the wagon sizes and speed?-
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I'm seeing Gamma and pink ball wagons be essentially stagnant at where they are from even before vedith-slot became a decently sized wagon. Unless you're saying that the wagon on you was specifically the wagon scum tried to push to save vedith, where exactly are these attempts coming from?In post 2619, mastina wrote:The different wagons on D1 are telling, sure, but they don't tell the story of "scum could've counterwagoned Vedith but chose not to"; they tell the story of "scum tried to counterwagon Vedith but literally couldn't".-
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Gamma isn't scumIn post 2627, Pink Ball wrote:Scum didn't want to push Gamma's wagon because that was a wagon on scum too-
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My problem with this is that it means 3 scum stayed on pink ball for most of the day while their scum partner was pushed up and the rest of the wagon stalled.In post 2651, mastina wrote:
If the solve of Flavor Leaf-ooba-Toogeloo is correct, then the Pink Ball counterwagon to Vedith hadIn post 2625, Ankamius wrote:I'm seeing Gamma and pink ball wagons be essentially stagnant at where they are from even before vedith-slot became a decently sized wagon.threescum on it--not shown in any single votecount, but when you look at it, Robert was on that wagon; Morality was on that wagon; Vedith was on that wagon. The only person in the solve not on that wagon was Toogeloo.
That seems like it counts as trying-yet-failing, because failure was inevitable.
What makes you think they didn't?In post 2626, Ankamius wrote:Plus what stops scum from pushing the pink ball or Gamma wagons?
Both proven and suspected scum voted in those wagons.
The Vedith wagon had too much going for it to fall apart; the counterwagons were all self-evidently flawed and weak, off of superficial reasoning with the sole exception of the Pink Ball wagon--which DID rival Vedith's...until Pink Ball obvtowned himself. (In fact, Pink Ball makes a nice contrast with Morality/Flavor Leaf. Both had AtE-laden moments, riddled with laced words. The difference between the two is that Pink Ball doing so revealed a town mindset; Morality/Flavor Leaf doing so was out of manipulation. But I digress.)
Pink Ball was the closest to a viable counterwagon, which is shown to have contained scum, but he made that lynch not be viable with how he obvtowned himself. Vedith meanwhile became more and more an appealing lynch because he made misplay after misplay--none of those misplays looked intentional, so much as accidental, genuine, fuckups on his part that screwed him over.
If pink ball obvtowned like you said they did, why did they not jump ship when the wagon was no longer viable?-
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When was this exactly?In post 2654, Near x Mello wrote:Ank I am not sure if you read it or not, but Vedith scumclaimed by claiming a flavor character he couldnt have
there isnt much scum could do after that
~Near-
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I'm having my usual "Don't have the words to describe what I'm thinking" momentIn post 2662, Near x Mello wrote:im not quite sure what your issue is
you think scum have to have bussed?
~Near
I'll figure it out eventually-
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see idk how to actually GET a read on mastina I can be confident in until I've seen how she interacts with me and/or have a pretty good view of the gamestate alreadyIn post 2701, Spike and Jet wrote:@ank
with your paranoia stuff
prioritse getting a read on mastina
she has enough people sheeping her that it could be a problem
anyone else being a deep wolf isnt an issue to me in terms of deal with right now
and the problem is that if she IS scum, then she just kills me-
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