Prey Mafia - Game Over

[Varsoon]

Basically games are designed with an odd player count because it keeps you from ending up in wonky situations like 3 town 3 scum or 5 town 3 scum where literally all of town needs to be voting for scum.

[Varsoon]

I think that might be the case.
I'm surprised we don't have a doublevoter to make up for losing a vote but I guess the guaranteed coordination of Lovers was meant to make up for it?

[Varsoon]

Let me try being more direct. A scum lynch is impossible yesterday unless scum bus. What do you think then about the BEF and Zito wagons? How does scum play and where are they at?

I have no idea.
I'm really fuckin paranoid of BEF-scum.

[Varsoon]

VOTE: BEF
Trusting you, Elbirn.

[Varsoon]

Real?
He's a claimed flavorcop with no counterclaim.
Also, IF there is a scum in the hood, then it's down to just BEF and Percivul, right?
Then one of them flipping town is fine because we'll have the lynch tomorrow to get the other.
Do you really think it's Percivul over BEF, who claimed he targeted the claimed ascetic?

[Varsoon]

Wait
Is Chara still alive?
What are they doing if so?

[Varsoon]

But yeah if anything I think scum would want lynch to be OUTSIDE of BEF/Percy and iirc Chara mentioned that earlier?
I think the likelihood of pools is the same though because as far as I know A50, Skitter, and Elbirn are all town, which makes a ground of Implosion/Mcqueen/Chara and a group of BEF/Percivul
So, hm, actually, from Chara's POV, it makes plenty of sense because then they're almost guaranteed to hit scum outside of BEF/Percivul instead of a 50/50 considering that

[Varsoon]

You know what?
Fuck it
I feel way better about this

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Implosion

Not moving my vote unless there's a damn good reason to do so.

[Varsoon]

Calling that scum is Implosion/Mcqueen/one of BEF/Percivul.

[Varsoon]

Watch out, man, you can't say that kinda stuff or A50'll revoke your unlynchable status.

[Varsoon]

BEF hasn't even proved his role, though, right?
That's like if I claimed Innocent Child and you ranted on about how my role canNOT be a scum role.
It's fuckin' made up, dude.

[Varsoon]

Also aint no fuckin way Elbirn is scum.
Elbirn scum never mason-fakes with me, ever.

[Varsoon]

Like why the fuck hasn't BEF targeted someone with his role yet today?
That's all he has to do at least to prove the day neighborizing part isn't a lie.
And even then, I fail to see how that makes him conf-town.
Please explain to me like I am a baby.

[Varsoon]

I DO think that we've got one scum in BEF/Percivul but, like Chara, I think we run way better odds outside of that given the PoE and, more than that, the BEF/Percivul thing should sort itself out via night actions, right?

[Varsoon]

VOTE: Persivul

@mcqueen: If you're town, your vote should be glued on Percy. Trust me, Thank you.

And why should I trust you?

He’s claimed already and honestly I forgot what it was but I bought it, so atm no I won’t vote Pers.

Literally what changed your mind?
The audacity on this
if Percivul flips town, I will never unvote you.

[Varsoon]

BEF hasn't even proved his role, though, right?

You're all gang ho on him BEFORE he trues to TODAY

Why wouldn't he do it EARLIER rather than STALLING to the LAST MOMENT like FUCKING SCUM?

[Varsoon]

Like : "Whoops forgot to use it! lol! Sorry! "

[Varsoon]

I read every page but it's not thorough reading so some stuff sticks with me and other stuff doesn't.
Didn't someone say not a lot of people will be posting in these days because of something else on-site?

[Varsoon]

Due to the nature of my job and personal life, I have mafiascum open on a tab in front of me for most the day.
So I read post-by-post, but that's not great for absorbing info.

[Varsoon]

Yeah, that.

[Varsoon]

Okay but let's go through what has been claimed:
1. A bunch of 1-shot roles
2. NOTHING THAT CAN BE MULTITASKED

[Varsoon]

So I think that A50 believes that town has a role that affects ONE OTHER TOWN PLAYER in a positive way?

[Varsoon]

Oh, so now it's one-shot?
A+

[Varsoon]

So someone's confirmed town because they have role synergy with your role?
That's not how setup design works.

[Varsoon]

He would've had to GUESS to target you or that synergy wouldn't be there at all.
It's a lie of a claim.

[Varsoon]

VOTE: BEF then. If this is an A50 bus I will lose my goddamn mind in post-game.

[Varsoon]

See how soon Varsoon jumped on the wagon to put BEF @ L-1? At least that means there's one scum off the wagon still, so Varsoon+Elbrin+Chara, perhaps? In that case Percy was meant to catch Elbrin specifically??

You really think scum would double down on hammer like that before LYLO?
I think you're just miffed you're wrong and BEF is scum.
Keeping my vote where it is.

[Varsoon]

You don't have a guilty on me because I'm town, so you can stop lying and positioning.

[Varsoon]

We also don't have more mechanical confirms than there are scum in the game so
Try again?

[Varsoon]

I didn't fake claim my flavor.

I'm playing Apex. I can literally show you my stream, jackass.
https://www.twitch.tv/jabarkasmayonnaise

[Varsoon]

Don't be a fucking dingus, please.
We are this close to losing game to some straight retarded shit

[Varsoon]

UNVOTE:

Okay please explain to me and sort out what the lies and the truth is, both of you.

[Varsoon]

When people are lying to me, it really bothers me, and it impairs my judgment of their alignment.
I was JUST in a game where I thought BEF was town but because he lied about his role, I was scumreading him and willing to lynch him.

[Varsoon]

Just restate it in full please

[Varsoon]

That feels really manipulative given what I said about half-following post-by-post.
I usually remember what was posted but not who posted it.

He might be disoloyal and he just hasn't claimed that and it'd make sense as a fake claim, tbh.

[Varsoon]

Depends on what they asked for and what their role is.

[Varsoon]

I believe that you are town, because if there is a godfather in this, I'll just curse Xtoxm forever.

[Varsoon]

sneaky mimic

You'd think so at 5 AM, but I was up playing Apex with Xiao Long during Taiwan hours.

[Varsoon]

BEF, why did you lie about having multiple shots?

[Varsoon]

That doesn't really hold up--if scum was in the hood, wouldn't they NOT want to shoot at you because it'd shorten the PoE
Furthermore, a lot of the spec done around what you claimed is that Multi-task would enable scum to use a role AND kill which would be something scum would want to keep around
but I don't see you really playing that angle at all where you'd jockeying to see who wanted to get motivated the most because it'd make them likely scum.
So if you were going to lie about something to get NK'd, why lie about being multishot and not some form of cop or something?

[Varsoon]

Wait, Chara, how do we know you stopped the kill and you're not just a scum roleblocker/stopper and that's been on Skitter and you're taking credit for kill hitting my commute?

[Varsoon]

Yeah, then the BEF fishing makes a lot more sense as coming from a scum PoV
VOTE: BEF

Outting claims because he's probably got some sort of roleblock/stop

[Varsoon]

Why does scum try to clear anyone?

[Varsoon]

Why does scum try to clear anyone?

They've been gifted a Cop shot and they had to use it or fake doing so.

"I tried to target [literally any name] and it failed."

[Varsoon]

It's almost like I had no fucking idea who's what and I'm trying to figure it out
Sorry for posting in the thread instead of keeping notes and being a fucking schemer.

[Varsoon]

I can't remember what my thought process was then. I could try to tell you, but I don't know how much of it would be true to the state I was in at the time.
I was hoping scum would take the bait and shoot at me, even if it'd kill me, but, like was mentioned earlier, I wasn't a likely kill given how much more townread other people are.
I also didn't know other people were kill immune or could stop the kill so yeah fucking yeah I was confident

[Varsoon]

Yeah, I think A50's dead on with the associatives and if it isn't implosion/mcqueen/one of percy-BEF then you fuckers have snowed me thoroughly.

[Varsoon]

Yeah, I think A50's dead on with the associatives and if it isn't implosion/mcqueen/one of percy-BEF then you fuckers have snowed me thoroughly.

should i be voting you rn {y/n}?
if you're town help me see it because atm i don't and i think you're my preferred lynch today

also remind me again what your reads are and who you want to lynch today?

Don't think you should be voting me for a few reasons:
1. We don't have much time to get a lynch and while a no lynch wouldn't be awful here, we have a huge chance of hitting scum with what we've got and I don't want to waste the day on a NL.
2. I'm town, so if your vote on me does end up pushing out a wagon to lynch on me, then we're all that much closer to losing, and so I have to advise against that shit or else I'm probably not playing to wincon.
3. There's much better places to vote in PoE that are almost guaranteed to net scum within 1 or 2 lynches--I know you don't like the idea of 'chain lynches' but literally that's how process of elimination works, man.

My reads are in the post you quoted, but here's everyone.
Almost50 is absolutely town unless godfather or some wild nonsense, at which point, I am fine losing the game either due to the insane amount of gambiting present or poor setup design.
Elbirn's locktown for a few tells that I know to be very likely true unless Elbirn's 'cashing them in' which I highly doubt. I wish he was more present but he's my highest confidence read that's not influenced by mechanics/claims.
You're pretty hard town, too, due to how thorough you've been investigating and working at this game and questioning things. Your claim is fairly irrefutable, too, I think, though I could imagine it as a scum role, but not with how you've also been playing.
I'm fairly certain Chara is town. I've wavered on this because Chara kept proposing things that I concluded scum would propose, but if Chara is scum, it'd be a really different scumteam than the one I've figured and so a red flip there would be really fucking volatile for me. I've seen Chara play in a lot of games by now and played a lot with them, so I think this is less of a schemer-Chara and more just genuine Chara, but, again, I'm not even 90% on this so Chara's a lower confidence townread for me due to some of the hypotheticals that came out today. Like with A50, though, I think it's too late in the game for me to second guess this shit, so if Chara is tricking me, fuck it, I'll take the L.
Percival is on the tipping point for me. They've had this really sanitized approach to the game where their posts feel very by-the-books what a townie should be posting, but I don't see them doing any sort of actual in-thread sleuthing or investigation. The whole neighborhood PoE brings it really down to Percival or BEF as scum, but I believe Percival's claim in that if scum was trying to make a survivalistic claim at L-1, why the fuck would they go with some weird "I don't know if it is gooncop" flavorcop shit? It struck me as too precise, though maybe Xtoxm's fakeclaims are really fucking good and I'm willing to believe that, but I wouldn't lynch Percival today. There's better lynches, and those are:
BEF has lied about their role multiple times, so much to the point their claimed role is not confirmable because they even targeted the claimed ascetic, apparently. It all feels way too convenient, and unlike A50, I don't think their claimed role exists or is even mechanically town. It'd be far too swingy to have a role intended to positively interact with exactly one other town role and only in early game. BEF's play has been dodgy and it really feels like he's been playing up the town idiot angle and trying to rely on people reading him as town based on all that. Like with Percival, I don't see BEF actually trying to figure this game out at all, either. There's also that malarky where BEF was fishing for where the kill done gone and I think that indicates that scum tried to kill skitter, as was covered earlier, and was pushing for figuring out why it didn't go through. The other big thing is that BEF flipping town condemns Percival as scum, and given the numbers, we can actually lynch here and solve that PoE, however, BEF flipping scum just means we hit scum, which is great, because then we still have that extra lynch moving forward. I really think BEF should be today's lynch and it seems like that's the conclusion most of my townreads have come to as well, whereas my scumreads have largely avoided the BEF wagon.
Mcqueen is very likely scum. Their posts are empty and despite their presence on Day 1, I've felt nothing from them. I've been over why their claim and play makes me uncomfortable.
Implosion is almost certainly scum. If I wasn't voting to solve in the BEF-Percival PoE, this is where my vote would be. Implosion and Mcqueen feel like partners to me, too, and, like with all my scumreads, Implosion doesn't feel like he's trying to gamesolve either.

Varsoon: that's why i want your thought process. i don't care how much you remember it, really. where did your read on me waver and why is it strong again? if you're being honest i'll see it.

I was starting to think I didn't have this shit solved and then you showed up and proposed basically everything antithetical to my solve, like to lynch outside of BEF/Percival, to consider that my commute didn't soak the kill, etc. It felt like you were trying hard to take the reigns of the game and direct the flow and I didn't feel like you'd actually solved the game enough to be able to do that so confidently. You can see me working through that shit in my posts where I realized that, from your PoE, yeah, lynching outside of BEF/Percival is a much higher yield for scum, but that's only if you're town--if you're scum and let's say BOTH BEF AND PERCIVAL are your buddies, then we're ABSOLUTELY FUCKED if we do that, and so I was like, "Wait shit no, I have to stick to my guns and I can't let Chara fucking one up me like that and then never hear the end of how great I got wrecked by Chara-scum." In the end, though, I am pretty sure you're town, and that your claimed protect of skitter (right, I'm not remembering this, right?) is what BEF-scum was fishing for earlier. That said, does your ability stop kills? Because in that case, I'm not sure why you aren't more critical of Skitter. Those are the kinds of conclusions I was coming to and it was making me really unsure if you were town or not. Like I said earlier, I've come to the conclusion that if you're scum here, I'm just hard fucked, but I also won't accept lynching outside the PoE that I think does solve us the game.

[Varsoon]

I'm actually really surprised that Skitter feels like Chara is town here and vice-versa.
Like
If I had an ability and someone stopped me from using it, I'd be like, "WHERE IS THAT SCUM MOTHERFUCKER?"
Similarly if I could stop someone from taking actions and I hit someone with it and there was no kill, I'd be like, "I GOT THAT SCUM MOTHERFUCKER!"
but maybe that's just a difference in my approach to the game?
Also that does lean heavy on a decisively mechanical approach to the game, whereas I think you've both been pretty town otherwise.
I'm just curious why neither of you seem to have considered the other in that way.

[Varsoon]

If I was a global townread and I was scum, I'd be the one doing kills, because then people would be less likely to be tracking me.

You're right, though, in that her play makes her town. Short of some real fuckery that I'm not going to entertain, I think it's very likely you're both town and your protect IS what stopped the kill, which is exactly what BEF was looking for earlier, since it was clear from his responses to me that he KNEW there was another way for a kill to be stopped outside of my commute.

[Varsoon]

Implosion is almost certainly scum. If I wasn't voting to solve in the BEF-Percival PoE, this is where my vote would be.

so since neither me/chara are really interested in bef today can i interest you in voting implosion instead?

We're really close to deadline, but if we can get the votes, yeah.
I feel like Chara's PoE is on the money and while I'd really, really prefer solving in the BEF/Percival PoE, if the votes aren't there for it, then the votes aren't there for it, and I want a lynch over nothing.
VOTE: Implosion

If I had an ability and someone stopped me from using it, I'd be like, "WHERE IS THAT SCUM MOTHERFUCKER?"

a) i don't know if i was roleblocked (i don't get feedback from the mod and it didn't really occur to me until chara said they roleblock/rolestopped me last night)

b) i'd rather be protected + roleblocked than dead given what i did last night

Oh, well, yeah, if you don't know that you were blocked, then that makes sense.
I was just stricken by how confident both of you were in the other, but I think I'm just a lot more prone to jumping to conclusions and questioning shit hard when things don't go my way.

[Varsoon]

okay skitter shh you don't need to stoke my lingering paranoia. you're town.

pedit: so you agree? i'd like your feedback on it and hope you aren't only trusting me there.

i'm not vibing town!varsoon as strongly as you are tbh
not sure i vibe it at all actually

i don't have a *great* track record at reading him but i still don't like how he was assuming he's the reason for the missing nk? he's good with setup spec, and the notion that there might have been some other way for the nk to go missing completely goes beyond him? idk to me at least it's like painfully obvious that he wasn't a viable nk last night

and in his most recent post he concedes that it's most likely that you protected me but i don't know why he thinks that now, i'm kinda wondering if he switched his opinion to stop getting flak over his original stance

i want to lynch in {implosion/varsoon} today and if you don't want varsoon that's ok i'm happy with implosion

I wanted to cover for anyone else who might be an actual protective, if the kill really did land outside of me.
I don't think it's that wild to concede that kill was very likely on you.

[Varsoon]

Second

[Varsoon]

You think BEF would've bussed implosion with the hammer?

[Varsoon]

I also think it's very likely Mcqueen/BEF

[Varsoon]

Maybe they figure he's a done deal and want to scrump the towncred before 3p LYLO?

[Varsoon]

Mcqueen is definitely the more likely implosion partner, imo.
I'm holding my vote though because I don't want to fuck shit up and lose after we just got a good lynch in--so consider my vote on mcqueen in spirit.

[Varsoon]

Real quick, uh, for purely scientific reasons, can people tell me all the roles that they don't consider scum roles so I can be sure to include them as scum roles in every game I run from here on out?

You know that the funny thing about BEF's claim is that he left out the part about being in the neighborhood, didn't he?

[Varsoon]

Enter - 1-shot Commuter Lover Neighbor - Suicided Dawn 2

[Varsoon]

So you're just assuming Phantom is not goon cop, then, but limited flavor-cop that catches like 1 scum?

[Varsoon]

If it's a fake-claim, it makes plenty of sense for it to actually be something like
Disloyal Neighborizor with Motivator attached.
Or even
Traitor Neighborizor with Motivator attached.
Actually fuck that second one is good shit, tucking that away for a future game.

[Varsoon]

Mmm yes a game where everyone has like 5 one-shot abilities and there's a bulletproof traitor neighborizor motivator. Mmyes.

[Varsoon]

Alright, so who do you think the remaining scum are?
You seem to be implying BEF is an implosion partner but I'm not seeing a vote there.
Do you think it's probable that implosion just... wasn't around to hammer town-BEF? Or maybe that implosion saw the BEF wagon and didn't hammer because he figured it'd end in him getting turbo-lynched the next day?

[Varsoon]

I think A50's still lying.
VOTE: Almost50

[Varsoon]

Don't let A50 fool you and win here.
Look at how quickly he turned around for a lynch on me.
I thought I was 'locktown', but look how quickly A50's been eroding that so that he could have wiggle room to get my lynched after implosion went down.
I don't like it.

[Varsoon]

Literally no way that A50 is some sort of holstered vig in this game.
I know A50 lies as his role plenty as town and I even thought he was town earlier but he REALLY looks like he's setting up some sort of gambit with the Vig claim and the amount that he's wriggled himself in the chara/skitter bloc bothers me a ton.

[Varsoon]

I think that we have to flip A50 in order to secure win. If he flips scum here, then he's teamed with Elbirn.
If he flips town here, last scum are mcqueen and Percivul.

[Varsoon]

Though I wonder if scum-A50 realizes Elbirn's too much of a consensus townread to take down and fakes his claim to provide a 'clear' there so that he looks clear as well.
Let me let you in on a little bit of modding insight that Xtoxm and I agreed on a long fucking time ago: There can never be more mechanical clears than there are scum players.
With the Lovers essentially being masons, that's 2 already. With the 1-shot cop handout, that's 3. There's no way there's fucking 6 or whatever mental shit A50 is on right now.

UNVOTE:

Walk me through how A50 isn't lying scum?

[Varsoon]

I don't see how it's a fucking scum-claim to push what strikes me as a BLATANT SCUM GAMBIT.
If anything, the scum play by me would've been to fucking lay low and not shake up the foundations because LITERALLY THREE OTHER PEOPLE WERE UP FOR LYNCH BEFORE ME.

[Varsoon]

Why is no one explaining why they trust A50 now when he's been lying all game?
Especially now when he's claiming this big huge play that he's going to make--a claim he'd NEVER make in this setup as town.

Also, Skitter, do you think your role clears Elbirn's and if so, how do you reconcile that against what I said earlier about the design theory between Xtoxm and myself? Do you think Xtoxm would design the game such that this many town could be cleared? I think Elbirn is solidly town here, and I disagree heavily with A50 shading Elbirn claiming he'd kill there as a vig, too, but I wonder what your take is on this all.

[Varsoon]

Fruit Vendor is the only part I believe and only partially.

[Varsoon]

Varsoon is a50 the scum that snowed me? Can you dumb down like I'm 5 why he's scum?

Unnatural reads, has moved you into getting shot range despite you being solidly town, has waffled on reading me whenever it's convenient to get me lynched, lied about his role more than once, is now currently lying about his role, is being mean and town A50 is usually just snarky/nice but doesn't call names iirc, and also he's positioned himself in the townbloc somehow.

Literally no way that A50 is some sort of holstered vig in this game.
I know A50 lies as his role plenty as town and I even thought he was town earlier but he REALLY looks like he's setting up some sort of gambit with the Vig claim and the amount that he's wriggled himself in the chara/skitter bloc bothers me a ton.

You could've suggested a No Lynch and to wait to see Elbrin's flip, and you would've been TR'd for it, you noob! Instead, you jumped the gun and claimed Scum when it benefits you not at all to lynch me at the current game status. Even if I'm gone and even if you do kill skitter then Percy will get a result on either you or Elbrin, which means one of you gets lynched tomorrow still, and then the other follows next.

Unless you/Elbrin also have that shotgun, in which case one uses the factional kill and the other uses the shotgun on BEF for a double kill. I'll blame Xtoxm -maybe- if that's the case, but I'll blame skitter more for

always

messing up my plans by insisting to stick her nose where it doesn't belong at the worst of times.

Yeah it's wild it's almost as if I'm town and I need to figure out what the shit is going on and deduce things the best I can.
;_; please don't call me a noob though.

a claim he'd NEVER make in this setup as town.

Why not? Explain to the class why I wouldn't claim as Town.

You know roleblockers exist in both factions.

[Varsoon]

Like if I'm on some next level paranoid shit, you really need to confirm to me beyond a reasonable doubt that you're town, A50, because otherwise I'd be voting you in LYLO.

[Varsoon]

You know roleblockers exist in both factions.

The scum RB has already flipped though.

The certainty that you say 'THE' scum RB like you KNOW there isn't ANOTHER 1-shot RB in scum bothers me.

Like if I'm on some next level paranoid shit, you really need to confirm to me beyond a reasonable doubt that you're town, A50, because otherwise I'd be voting you in LYLO.

You won't be alive in LyLo. You're today's lynch if Elbrin's not your partner. Period.

The thing is you're the only one here who knows the flavor well enough to judge, and I claimed my flavor, so -if you were town- you'd know it's true beyond doubt, and thus it matches the abilities (unless Xtoxm didn't make it that way). The fact that you overlooked that is reason enough for me to have no doubt about you being scum.

See--you're way too certain of shit like 'you wont be in lylo'. That's not something town says.
I know the flavor well enough to tell you that the character you claimed is literally a flavor-perfect scum fake-claim and I even discussed this behind spoiler= tags.

[Varsoon]

I don't see how it's a fucking scum-claim to push what strikes me as a BLATANT SCUM GAMBIT.
If anything, the scum play by me would've been to fucking lay low and not shake up the foundations because LITERALLY THREE OTHER PEOPLE WERE UP FOR LYNCH BEFORE ME.

why is it a BLATANT SCUM GAMBIT

It's a lie made to get him through the night after a mislynch. When he's unable to produce two kills, he'll lie again to get ya'll to lynch 50/50 between him or a town player, likely someone like Elbirn, who is who he claimed he'd shoot. I've done this before pre-LYLO.

Though I wonder if scum-A50 realizes Elbirn's too much of a consensus townread to take down and fakes his claim to provide a 'clear' there so that he looks clear as well.
Let me let you in on a little bit of modding insight that Xtoxm and I agreed on a long fucking time ago: There can never be more mechanical clears than there are scum players.
With the Lovers essentially being masons, that's 2 already. With the 1-shot cop handout, that's 3. There's no way there's fucking 6 or whatever mental shit A50 is on right now.

UNVOTE:

Walk me through how A50 isn't lying scum?

a) elbirn is not a consensus townread

b) there aren't more mechanical clears than scum - there's a phantom cop and a 1shot cop, and that's it, the phantom only gets hard guilties, it doesn't give clears

c) lovers != masons, don't be ridiculous

d) a50 doesn't have any ability to clear peopel

I was under that impression re: his claim and how people treated it in regards to yours.
A50's operating on different assumptions.
I didn't include Phantom cop because it doesn't get clears--but the 1-shot cop does and the lovers are essentially clear because why would they be opposite aligns???

Why is no one explaining why they trust A50 now when he's been lying all game?
Especially now when he's claiming this big huge play that he's going to make--a claim he'd NEVER make in this setup as town.

Also, Skitter, do you think your role clears Elbirn's and if so, how do you reconcile that against what I said earlier about the design theory between Xtoxm and myself? Do you think Xtoxm would design the game such that this many town could be cleared? I think Elbirn is solidly town here, and I disagree heavily with A50 shading Elbirn claiming he'd kill there as a vig, too, but I wonder what your take is on this all.

because a bunch of small details add up and make sense wrt his claim (specifically the motivator thing, he's claimed protective before, and there was something else that i'm blanking on)

why is lying about his role ai for him?

i don't know why you think elbirn is town here
no, i don't think it clears elbirn, why would it clear elbirn? if anything the reason why i think his claim is slightly townie is because he *claimed* the negative utility; i don't think he's townie by virtue of having that as his role

What motivator thing are you talking about? I'm lost.

It's a thing he does as town more often than scum.

I think it doesn't clear him either but someone (a50?) proposed that Elbirn must be town if Skitter's town.

[Varsoon]

Like if I'm on some next level paranoid shit, you really need to confirm to me beyond a reasonable doubt that you're town, A50, because otherwise I'd be voting you in LYLO.

You won't be alive in LyLo. You're today's lynch if Elbrin's not your partner. Period.

The thing is you're the only one here who knows the flavor well enough to judge, and I claimed my flavor, so -if you were town- you'd know it's true beyond doubt, and thus it matches the abilities (unless Xtoxm didn't make it that way). The fact that you overlooked that is reason enough for me to have no doubt about you being scum.

isn't varsoon the person who brought up the notion in the first place that the flexibolt thing might end up being a conditional vig on scum or something? i'm not sure why he's so skeptical?

I floated it and he took the idea and ran with it. That's part of how I know it's a lie. And now he's trying to act like if I was scum and knew this, I'd be vocal about it instead of sitting smug knowing he can't produce a second kill and sitting back waiting to see how it falls down around his head.

i really don't think a50 is scum here despite the fake-claiming shenanigans

I don't see any reason for town to play the way he has here, though. If you have a good case for him being town, please walk me through it. I don't want to fuck up in the final stretch of the game and go all-in on the wrong player here but god if the immediate turnaround on a wagon on me the second I voted A50 doesn't speak volumes towards something being fucky here, I don't know what's what.

[Varsoon]

Hold on hold on hold on hold on hold on hold on
Who was the first person to mention 3P in this game?

[Varsoon]

What I have to say is incredibly important, if true--and I have a lot of reason to believe that it is.

I need to know who the first person to mention 3P and the first person to mention a Serial Killer in this game were.

[Varsoon]

Is this the 1st post about 3p?

No, see my preceding post. redtea speculated that A50 might be 3P pretty far back.

I'm positive that A50 is 3P.
A50 has brought up flavor time and time again as something important, which struck me, and now I realize why.
A50's flavor is THE MAIN CHARACTER OF PREY. This character DECIDES WHO TO KILL and WHO TO KEEP ALIVE and by the end of the game he can either SIDE WITH THE TYPHONS OR WITH HUMANITY.
A50's abilities, if he's not lying this time, are PRIMING A TARGET and then KILLING THEM. That's 100% SK flavor AND abilities.
A50's been really STUCK on the idea of 3P existing, too, but has DROPPED THAT recently.
A50 has NO REASON to claim that he is a Vigilante here unless he has some sort of BULLETPROOF MECHANIC, which is STANDARD for SERIAL KILLER ROLES. A50 is trying to SOAK THE SCUM KILL tonight if he's 3P like I believe.
A50's all of a sudden pushing real hard to END THE DAY on WHATEVER LYNCH HE CAN and then KILL SOMEONE TONIGHT in a way that he can claim is TOWNIE so that he can make it through the next day if possible so he CAN WIN THE GAME WITH A 3P WIN.

Here's the problem though
If we lynch A50, we go into D5 with 3-2 and we're in DOUBLE LYLO and need to hit scum TWICE to win.
If we don't lynch A50, then we go into D5 with 1-1-2 or 2-1-1 and the game is unwinnable for town.

[Varsoon]

READ AGAIN: IF WE DO NOT LYNCH 3P A50 HERE, THEN WE CAN NOT WIN THE GAME

[Varsoon]

Wait hold on it'd be 2-1-2 or 3-1-1.
So we could actually still win if A50 hit scum with the shot, because then we'd be at 3-1-1, but we'd HAVE TO LYNCH either A50 or scum D5 to win.
If A50 hits town, which he WILL DO, then we will be at 2-1-2 and UNABLE TO WIN THE GAME.

[Varsoon]

Wait no I was right originally if he doesn't soak the kill.
Right now we're at
4-1-2.

So possible scenarios:
We mislynch here, Scum fails to kill A50, A50 kills town: 2-1-2. We can not win the game anymore.
We mislynch here, Scum fails to kill A50, A50 kills scum: 3-1-1. We can win but only if we lynch Scum or A50.
We mislynch here, Scum kills town, A50 kills town: 1-1-2. We can not win the game anymore.
We mislynch here, Scum kills town, A50 kills scum: 2-1-1. We can win but it is highly unlikely as A50 can just shoot at someone he knows to be town.
We lynch scum here, scum fails to kill A50, A50 kills town: 3-1-1. We can win but only if we lynch Scum or A50.
We lynch scum here, scum fails to kill A50, A50 kills scum: 3-1. We can win but only if we lynch A50.
We lynch scum here, scum kills town, A50 kills town: 2-1-1. We can win but it is highly unlikely as A50 can just shoot at someone he knows to be town.
We lynch scum here, scum kills town, A50 kills scum: 3-1. We can win but only if we lynch A50.
We lynch A50 here, scum kills town: 3-2. We can win but only if we lynch scum twice in a row.


So if we remove options where A50 shoots at scum because it's not in his best interests...

We mislynch here, Scum fails to kill A50, A50 kills town: 2-1-2. We can not win the game anymore.
We mislynch here, Scum kills town, A50 kills town: 1-1-2. We can not win the game anymore.
We lynch scum here, scum fails to kill A50, A50 kills town: 3-1-1. We can win but only if we lynch Scum or A50.
We lynch scum here, scum kills town, A50 kills town: 2-1-1. We can win but it is highly unlikely as A50 can just shoot at someone he knows to be town.
We lynch A50 here, scum kills town: 3-2. We can win but only if we lynch scum twice in a row.

And if we take out places where scum shoots at BP A50...


We mislynch here, Scum kills town, A50 kills town: 1-1-2. We can not win the game anymore.
We lynch scum here, scum kills town, A50 kills town: 2-1-1. We can win but it is highly unlikely as A50 can just shoot at someone he knows to be town.
We lynch A50 here, scum kills town: 3-2. We can win but only if we lynch scum twice in a row.


So our only realistic option is to lynch A50 here, otherwise we can not win the game.

[Varsoon]

VOTE: Almost50

[Varsoon]

I'd be cool with it, honestly, but we should probably hit mcqueen.

[Varsoon]

Yeah, I'm not willing to believe mcqueen is loved scum while I'm voteless town. Seems unlikely.
Dollars to donuts, BEF is scum here. I really don't like how he's like "Skitter was prob right" and then Percivul pegs him as scum and he's like "I can take away that townread on you!"
It just strikes as weird posturing to me. Vote's there for all intents and purposes, just don't wanna rush LYLO, though.

[Varsoon]

Enter also got a neighborhood and a lover.

As far as not getting turbo-lynched, if Mcqueen is scum, then there is no 2 scum to speed lynch me. The fact you're angling mcqueen as town here without even considering the alternative makes me think you have more info than me.

[Varsoon]

@Elbirn: I wouldn't say any of us are 'conf' town, actually--just likelier town or less likely town. Odds aren't that stacked against us, though. It's a 50/50 shot to hit scum and we've got days of play to inform us.

[Varsoon]

Convenient that you can shuffle your reads around at the last minute to procure TWO other people to get lynched before you bite the dust, eh?

[Varsoon]

That's right. No one is confirmed. That's literally a fact.
I've squared Elbirn as town here.
What I'm trying to make heads or tails of is who the other pair is.

[Varsoon]

BEF, how seriously do you pay attention to meta?

[Varsoon]

How many times do I have to tell you that ELBIRN IS TOWN before you get the hint?
VOTE: Elbirn

[Varsoon]

[quote="In post 2062, Almost50"]
You won't be alive in LyLo. /quote]

I'M HERE

[Varsoon]

aww I beefed that quote.

[Varsoon]

Ain't that just the Varsoon way?

[Varsoon]

Thanks for running this, Xtoxm.
I really enjoyed your flavor and roles.

[Varsoon]

<3
I was really surprised that my big dumb push on A50 went through and was good enough that I had convinced MYSELF that he was 3P even after acknowledging you probably didn't put 3P in this game at all.

I loved how you were willing to work with us on fake claims to ensure that we didn't get flavor-gamed. Most mods wouldn't be that theme-savvy or considerate to their scum team.

I do think town had a LOT of outright provable semi-confirmed town roles and on a mass-claim here it actually might be real hard for scum to win but I'm not sure. The game felt like an uphill battle, but that was a good thing. I actually had to feign disengagement, which is weird, cus in most games I have to feign interest.

[Varsoon]

Yeah I kept wishing other people had played Prey and would latch on to my outguess-the-mod-who-said-this-was-just-humans-versus-typhon thing.
I guess folks kinda bought into that when I pushed for the lynch on A50?

All in all, yeah, the setup as is does work pretty well and isn't unwinnable by either side by any margin, though it does have a level of swing that I probably would find hard to endorse. That all said, it played out really well and was an exciting and fun game. Kudos, man. Please run something else soon.

[Varsoon]

You did get me to replay Prey
Forgot how awesome those turrets are at the start
Baited like all the typhons in the lobby over to them

[Varsoon]

Reading through the dead thread was enjoyable.
Yeah, a lot of our kills were survivalistic/out of necessity.

Wondering if I should just jack my lifting stat first and run around carrying the space station on my back hmmmm

[Varsoon]

I think, by design, all closed setups should heavily penalize town for mass-claiming.
To me, a core part of playing town is having less information. Being able to 'clear' people solely off of claim/role is obnoxious and contrary to the game of mafia I'm trying to run.

But I acknowledge this is pretty far from how most people tend to feel--that mass-claiming is a strategy like any other and me being against it is just me not liking that sort of strategy being effective.

[Varsoon]

The onus then falls on moderators to design roles that do not give town an edge when mass-claimed, though it's nearly impossible to predict what the town perspective of a role may be, as this game proves.

[Varsoon]

In games where I am scum and it unequivocally catches me, I just feel like "OH COOL MOD THANKS FOR THE GREAT GAME" and the only counterplay is either to try to undermine the massclaim in some way (scummy to do so!) or lie.

In games where I've been town and caught scum with a mass claim, it hasn't felt nearly as earned as catching them solely based on play.

That said, this applies to closed setups. For Opens and semi-opens, mass claims are an integral part of the setup and setups are balanced around knowledge of roles in play.

[Varsoon]

Hey, A50, if we're on the same side next time, let's get a win!

[Varsoon]

It bugs me that nothing in queue appeals to me.
Maybe I should get off my lazy ass and run you a game to win, A50.