Greatest Idea VIII - Game Over

[pinturicchio]

i still think theres a good chance aliens dont exist, look at the discards

maf vig
maf something
ww
sk

explains the kills

Same. The "Elsa claiming one of his partner's role" is my best bet

[Shadowlesscloud]

I thought there was one maf discard? And there’s maximum 9 non-town with at least three of them being not mafia... I guess that doesn’t say much about how many mafia are left. Hm.
Do you feel strongly Performer is a better lynch than TL?

Rechecked and there actually was. A godfather. Let me go and check how many mafia cards there are compared to other factions.

And Perf did something in thread that has me being hella iffy on them. I really want him to claim though before I finallize whether i want him lynched over TL

p-dit: Xtoxm, Aliens get 3 factional kills this set up.

[Irrelephant11]

There could be 3 sk’s here, fyi

[Shadowlesscloud]

There could be 3 sk’s here, fyi

Indeed. Refer back to: Better to lynch scummy people then people with associations

[Xtoxm]

There could be 3 sk’s here, fyi

im factoring what people are likely to choose, and how many cards are in play
9 alien cards minus 3 discards = 6
4 sk cards
just under half of all cards were dealt

sk and alien cards are have powerful abilities that are much more attractive to be used as role rather than alignment
like if i have mafia fv and alien vanilliser cards to pick from, i'd rather be the vanilliser maf then the alien fv ya know?

[Irrelephant11]

There could be 3 sk’s here, fyi

Indeed. Refer back to: Better to lynch scummy people then people with associations

Ye good point

[davesaz]

if lich is town he needs to head to the newbie queue and learn how to claim
half the game is just absent atm and the game is starting to stall for it

The claim didn't affect my read. I saw some explicit concern about quoting the results -> wanting to paraphrase, which would be newb-indicative. I'm making this comment without reviewing Lich's join date or history so it could be that I'm off base on that part of it.

In regard to why I think partner with Elsa, I reread the early game and I think it's possible Elsa coached Lich to interact that way.

[DoubtingThomas]

irrel. i feel like you are narrating in a scummy fashion

[Micc]

Votecount 2.04

TemperalLich (5) -

Irrelephant11, Xtoxm, Wisdom, Vedith, NotMySpamAccount

TTTT (2) -

TemperalLich, Trekkie99

Performer (1) -

Shadowlesscloud

Not Voting (8) -

TTTT, ofrhz, davesaz, DoubtingThomas, pinturicchio, Gamma Emerald, Chemist1422, Performer

With 16 players alive it takes 9 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2019-04-04 13:45:00).

[Irrelephant11]

Do tell

[Shadowlesscloud]

88-107

19 Mafia

108-125

17 Wolves

126-134

8 Aliens

This gives Mafia a slight better chance of rolling then Werewolf and a lot better chance then Alien.

Now lets look at strength of the abilities.

Mafia has 3 MAYBE 4 good roles.

Werewolf has 3 MAYBE 4 good roles

Aliens have 8 amazing abilities.

This means players are most liekly gonna use Aliens as their ability card.

This means Alignment wise, Mafia and Wolves are the majority of scum.

Faction scum cards thrown away:

1 Mafia cards
3 Werewolf cards
3 Alien cards

That means the remaining amount of cards that were not discard (Not all were even in playso keep that in mind) 18 Mafia cards, 14 Wolf cards, 5 alien cards.

@hosts If there are no aliens, would the Alien Sympathiser appear as town faction or alien faction in the discard pile?

[Shadowlesscloud]

TLDR theres the proof that its looking like we can expect Mostly Mafia as the scum pool with wolves as second most and most likely not alot of aliens

[Xtoxm]

im glad im not the only one left a good mechanical understanding of the setup we're playing

[Micc]

@hosts If there are no aliens, would the Alien Sympathiser appear as town faction or alien faction in the discard pile?

It would be colored like an Alien card regardless of the number of Aliens in the setup.

[pinturicchio]

Then lynching a faction that it's not mafia is the best alternative, since lynching another mafia member is probably not ending that faction

[Shadowlesscloud]

Then lynching a faction that it's not mafia is the best alternative, since lynching another mafia member is probably not ending that faction

Mhm. That being said, lynching scum over associations works both ways. However, if its tied between two, id rather lynch someone who is scummier without associations in mind.

[Shadowlesscloud]

@hosts If there are no aliens, would the Alien Sympathiser appear as town faction or alien faction in the discard pile?

It would be colored like an Alien card regardless of the number of Aliens in the setup.

Kk I thought so but might as well ask.

[Xtoxm]

outside of a guilty you're not going to convince me that any of the scummy players are more likely one align than the other
just lynch the highest scum equity player

[davesaz]

outside of a guilty you're not going to convince me that any of the scummy players are more likely one align than the other
just lynch the highest scum equity player

As a general statement this is towny.
If it gets used as an argument against lynching someone specific, not so much.

[davesaz]

1235 is mathematically sound, to the extent I'm willing to spend time thinking about it.
It doesn't take into account the psychological effects of card choice, which have a strong effect and are very likely to render the setup non-mathematically optimal.
Intuitively I expect mafia anyway, as a natural reaction to last game's setup.

BTW I'm not necessarily townreading people who put effort into trying to convince people what the faction balance is.
Town want that to be accurate, scum may want it to be inaccurate. In particular aliens may want to convince us they are minimal or absent. And it's quite easy to use correct statistics to lead to incorrect assumptions.

[Shadowlesscloud]

1235 is mathematically sound, to the extent I'm willing to spend time thinking about it.
It doesn't take into account the psychological effects of card choice, which have a strong effect and are very likely to render the setup non-mathematically optimal.
Intuitively I expect mafia anyway, as a natural reaction to last game's setup.

BTW I'm not necessarily townreading people who put effort into trying to convince people what the faction balance is.
Town want that to be accurate, scum may want it to be inaccurate. In particular aliens may want to convince us they are minimal or absent. And it's quite easy to use correct statistics to lead to incorrect assumptions.

I did that with psychological effects out of mind.

I could have mentioned the possibility of having cards like goons and vanilla wolves with there not being a Powerless Alien.

ALSO EJ WAS MAFIA CUPID

WHICH MEANS SHE HAD 1 town and 2 mafia cards

[Shadowlesscloud]

^I came to that realization just now when I was looking over the cards and only saw cupid once. I might redo the math with those in mind.

[TTTT]

outside of a guilty you're not going to convince me that any of the scummy players are more likely one align than the other
just lynch the highest scum equity player

this is where I'm at
with that in mind...

Kill: Performer

[TTTT]

now I can't bully people anymore
and that makes me sad

[Micc]

.