Fire on the Mountain [Over]

[MaxwellPuckett]

viewtopic.php?p=10669314&user_select%5B ... #p10669314

here's another game where Gamma made posts #58 and #88 that showed she wasn't really reading the thread and selectively responding to things

she was also town

I forgot Gamma was the same slot I should ISO them too
Kinda kno how to read gamma

[MaxwellPuckett]

Do we win if we lynch all of [xtoxm/Max/Liger]?

i'll lynch max if liger is guaranteed to get killed as well if max doesn't flip scum

+1

[Liger_Zero]

How many votes on Max?

[Extrapolated Eagle]

VOTE: liger

more traction than xtoxm

liger>xtoxm>Buj>max

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: liger

[Liger_Zero]

So how many votes on Max?

[RAS]

When I try to get motivation to get back into this game it basically gets instantly shut down.
I lost a lot of motivation for this game from yesterday and I still think that Scum just sat back and let town Lynch Shoshin and they are getting away with it.

If Eagle is going to intentionally Piss me off and actively want to prevent me from playing I'll do everyone a favour and replace out.

I actually think DDL is town and I'd move him further up my list.

Replace out

Despite my last post stating that I had no idea how to read Vedith, and as much as I hate AtE and players replacing out due to frustration that could've been avoided, I'm only getting town vibes from this post. I'm sad to see you go cause I think reading you would've been a challenge for me, especially if you made it to the late game. I always have a hard time reading players with your play style.

So how many votes on Max?

If you care so much about how many votes he has, why don't you do the research yourself? Why is it relevant how many votes he has?

[Dannflor]

Yea I changed my mind

VOTE: liger

max might just be town here

[Liger_Zero]

If you care so much about how many votes he has, why don't you do the research yourself? Why is it relevant how many votes he has?

Good advice. Did the search. I am the only one voting Max.

[DrDolittle]

RAS if you think Vedith is town, Buj's scum chances greatly rises.

[northsidegal]

Votecount 3.7

Liger_Zero(5)

~ Reiuji Utsuho⁽⁸⁵⁾, MaxwellPuckett⁽⁶⁸⁾, Extrapolated Eagle⁽¹⁹⁷⁾, DrDolittle⁽⁹⁸⁾, Dannflor⁽⁹³⁾

Xtoxm(3)

~ mcqueen⁽²⁵⁾, Vedith⁽⁴⁹⁾, Prince of Renais⁽¹²⁸⁾

Vedith(1)

~ NerfedBuJ⁽³⁸⁾

Prince of Renais(1)

~ Xtoxm⁽⁴⁷⁾

NerfedBuJ(1)

~ Ankamius⁽¹⁴³⁾

MaxwellPuckett(1)

~ Liger_Zero⁽¹⁰⁶⁾

DrDolittle(1)

~ Jingle⁽⁹⁰⁾

Ankamius(1)

~ Karmeleon⁽⁸⁸⁾


Not Voting (1): RAS⁽⁴⁶⁾

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2019-04-05 16:49:59)

Searching for a replacement for Vedith.

[Jingle]

VOTE: Xtoxm

Based purely on wagon comp I'm not feeling an L0 lynch.

[NerfedBuJ]

Fun with math:

Feel free to correct me if I made a mistake.

15 alive.
13:2 town:scum ratio

3 conftown players,
Leaves us with 10:2
We can afford 5 mislynches in the worst case scenario.

We will assume the following in order to calculate the odds in terms of worst case scenario, because anything else would only give us an even higher probability of winning.

Assumptions:
-People that are doused are never lynched
-Scum do not ignite within the suspect list until they can win (this makes the odds of hitting scum less, though we will still assume that we don't hit a doused player, because we are basing this on a 5 mislynch capacity, lynching a doused player would be an extra mislynch)

Odds of scum not getting lynched if random lynching (while avoiding doused players):

Day 3 (5 mislynches left, 0 doused within suspect list) - 10/12 = 83.3%
Day 4 (4 mislynches left, 0 doused within suspect list) - 9/11 = 81.8 % * 83.3% = 68.2%
Day 5 (3 mislynches left, 1 doused within suspect list) - 7/10 = 70% * 68.2% = 47.7%
Day 6 (2 mislynches left, 2 doused within suspect list) - 5/9 = 55.6% * 47.7% = 26.5%
Day 7 (1 mislynch left, 3 doused within suspect list) - 3/8 = 37.5% * 26.5% = 9.9%
Day 8 (lylo, 4 doused within suspect list) - 1/7 = 14% * 9.9% = 1.4%

1.4% that scum avoid the lynch 6 days in a row.

[NerfedBuJ]

Just keep adding the absolute top shelf consensus townreads to that pile as we start identifying them, and the odds of scum winning will approach 0%.

[NerfedBuJ]

Even if I am wrong here somewhere.. arguing this much over which useless slot to lynch is not productive today. It's way too early to let paranoia mess with you. Get a lynch today and tomorrow and let's have a better picture to work with.

[NerfedBuJ]

Townreading vedith is some lowering the bar for scum teams worldwide bullshit

But have it your way VOTE: Liger

[NerfedBuJ]

EE replace me with vedith slot, and add RAS to the end and you'll have a solid lynch order

[Reiuji Utsuho]

Why RAS again?

[Liger_Zero]

Fun with math:

Feel free to correct me if I made a mistake.

15 alive.
13:2 town:scum ratio

3 conftown players,
Leaves us with 10:2
We can afford 5 mislynches in the worst case scenario.

We will assume the following in order to calculate the odds in terms of worst case scenario, because anything else would only give us an even higher probability of winning.

Assumptions:
-People that are doused are never lynched
-Scum do not ignite within the suspect list until they can win (this makes the odds of hitting scum less, though we will still assume that we don't hit a doused player, because we are basing this on a 5 mislynch capacity, lynching a doused player would be an extra mislynch)

Odds of scum not getting lynched if random lynching (while avoiding doused players):

Day 3 (5 mislynches left, 0 doused within suspect list) - 10/12 = 83.3%
Day 4 (4 mislynches left, 0 doused within suspect list) - 9/11 = 81.8 % * 83.3% = 68.2%
Day 5 (3 mislynches left, 1 doused within suspect list) - 7/10 = 70% * 68.2% = 47.7%
Day 6 (2 mislynches left, 2 doused within suspect list) - 5/9 = 55.6% * 47.7% = 26.5%
Day 7 (1 mislynch left, 3 doused within suspect list) - 3/8 = 37.5% * 26.5% = 9.9%
Day 8 (lylo, 4 doused within suspect list) - 1/7 = 14% * 9.9% = 1.4%

1.4% that scum avoid the lynch 6 days in a row.

Scum win on Night 6.
If we assume 2 doused now.
There will be 5 doused on Night 6.

Current player list alive is 15. By Day 6, that is 11 left alive and after day over that is 10. Burn douses its 5 players.
Game ends with scum majority.

[Dannflor]

Fun with math:

Feel free to correct me if I made a mistake.

15 alive.
13:2 town:scum ratio

3 conftown players,
Leaves us with 10:2
We can afford 5 mislynches in the worst case scenario.

We will assume the following in order to calculate the odds in terms of worst case scenario, because anything else would only give us an even higher probability of winning.

Assumptions:
-People that are doused are never lynched
-Scum do not ignite within the suspect list until they can win (this makes the odds of hitting scum less, though we will still assume that we don't hit a doused player, because we are basing this on a 5 mislynch capacity, lynching a doused player would be an extra mislynch)

Odds of scum not getting lynched if random lynching (while avoiding doused players):

Day 3 (5 mislynches left, 0 doused within suspect list) - 10/12 = 83.3%
Day 4 (4 mislynches left, 0 doused within suspect list) - 9/11 = 81.8 % * 83.3% = 68.2%
Day 5 (3 mislynches left, 1 doused within suspect list) - 7/10 = 70% * 68.2% = 47.7%
Day 6 (2 mislynches left, 2 doused within suspect list) - 5/9 = 55.6% * 47.7% = 26.5%
Day 7 (1 mislynch left, 3 doused within suspect list) - 3/8 = 37.5% * 26.5% = 9.9%
Day 8 (lylo, 4 doused within suspect list) - 1/7 = 14% * 9.9% = 1.4%

1.4% that scum avoid the lynch 6 days in a row.

Scum win on Night 6.
If we assume 2 doused now.
There will be 5 doused on Night 6.

Current player list alive is 15. By Day 6, that is 11 left alive and after day over that is 10. Burn douses its 5 players.
Game ends with scum majority.

I think you're both wrong?

15 alive today
we lynch 1

With 14 alive on Night 3
there will be 13 alive on Night 4
12 alive on Night 5
11 on Night 6

On Night 6, scum will have already doused 5 players, and will douse an additional player that night for a total of 6. If they ignite on Night 6, they will kill 6 players.

There will then be 5 remaining, which is 3:2.

Night 7 is the earliest scum can end the game. Night 7 there will be 10 alive. Scum can kill 7 players that night, leaving 3. It will be 1:2 town to scum unless we manage to lynch scum on day 7, in which case it becomes 2:1 town to scum.

So Day 7 is LyLo.

So we have 1 less mislynch than Buj calculated, but scum can't end game on Night 6.

[Jingle]

Fun with math:

Feel free to correct me if I made a mistake.

15 alive.
13:2 town:scum ratio

3 conftown players,
Leaves us with 10:2
We can afford 5 mislynches in the worst case scenario.

We will assume the following in order to calculate the odds in terms of worst case scenario, because anything else would only give us an even higher probability of winning.

Assumptions:
-People that are doused are never lynched
-Scum do not ignite within the suspect list until they can win (this makes the odds of hitting scum less, though we will still assume that we don't hit a doused player, because we are basing this on a 5 mislynch capacity, lynching a doused player would be an extra mislynch)

Odds of scum not getting lynched if random lynching (while avoiding doused players):

Day 3 (5 mislynches left, 0 doused within suspect list) - 10/12 = 83.3%
Day 4 (4 mislynches left, 0 doused within suspect list) - 9/11 = 81.8 % * 83.3% = 68.2%
Day 5 (3 mislynches left, 1 doused within suspect list) - 7/10 = 70% * 68.2% = 47.7%
Day 6 (2 mislynches left, 2 doused within suspect list) - 5/9 = 55.6% * 47.7% = 26.5%
Day 7 (1 mislynch left, 3 doused within suspect list) - 3/8 = 37.5% * 26.5% = 9.9%
Day 8 (lylo, 4 doused within suspect list) - 1/7 = 14% * 9.9% = 1.4%

1.4% that scum avoid the lynch 6 days in a row.

Your assumptions are gross. This is a terrible application of EV math.

I vaguely want to fix this now.

[NerfedBuJ]

Your assumptions are gross. This is a terrible application of EV math.

I vaguely want to fix this now.

It really isn't. We don't care about the other possibilities. We only care about the odds of losing if we are very very very unlucky and very very very bad at lynching.

Dann could be right, in which case it's 10% chance that scum avoids the lynch. Still insanely good for us.

Take that in mind when designing setups with masons. Confirmed town players fuck up scum big time.

[NerfedBuJ]

Why RAS again?

I am not convinced by the towncases on the slot.
It might be paranoia or it might be ego. Regardless, going by the current game state, that slot is the only one that can be a deepwolf.

[NerfedBuJ]

Also jingle if you are seeing a mistake in this and still can't find the motivation to give a shit, you'll never give a shit this game.

[Prince of Renais]

not enthusiastic about this specific lynch but i agree that it has to go so