Fire on the Mountain [Over]

[DrDolittle]

I went over this already but you can look at the VCs yourself. The Buj wagon existed prior to the grapes wagon.

sure. but doesn't mean its not a counter?

[DrDolittle]

scum pushes A, then town starts pushing the right person in B is perfectly reasonable

[Liger_Zero]

I don't know if that logic follows

[Extrapolated Eagle]

That is to say I consider game solved at this point and while I could be wrong, I very much doubt it .

[Dannflor]

scum pushes A, then town starts pushing the right person in B is perfectly reasonable

Grapes wagon is just eh.

Is your problem with it Grapes or the people voting Grapes?

Grapes. Like hes not obv town but there are much better lunches in the horizon. Plus the speed that the wagon developed smells a bit opportunistic, like people wanting off attn on Buj

[DrDolittle]

hmm. yeah i just went back to nsg's vote counts and clemency (Max) or lycan (Anka)'s slot looks a lot worse than Ved

[Dannflor]

I don't know if the Buj wagon just

existing

necessarily means scum were pushing it.

If you think Vedith is scum because he continued to push the Buj wagon after the Grapes wagon had momentum, remember that you did the same thing.

[DrDolittle]

I know! and I did say that im a third party, id be voting me rn

[Xtoxm]

That is to say I consider game solved at this point and while I could be wrong, I very much doubt it .

youre a funny man

[Liger_Zero]

That is to say I consider game solved at this point and while I could be wrong, I very much doubt it .

youre a funny man

I think he is too

[Extrapolated Eagle]

That is to say I consider game solved at this point and while I could be wrong, I very much doubt it .

youre a funny man

What makes you say this?

[Ankamius]

has anybody gotten the sense that Dann has been awkward lately

[Dannflor]

has anybody gotten the sense that Dann has been awkward lately

me

[Ankamius]

I am leaning heavily that scum are in the "townblock". Gonna be fun to have my head chewed of for that. That is a good explanation for why no ignition at least, not sure why you want to have so many people around that people see as locktown other than to rely on the paranoia that festers when you have less people you can lynch to work with.

Or maybe the locktown group is so bad that scum just don't care to kill them yet and are relying on their terrible lynches.

that paranoia isn't really justified yet

there's only a few scenarios I can think of right now where scum don't ignite n4 or n5 so if it happens, we can discuss it then

until that point, there's not enough to go on to nail down what scum are trying to do precisely

[Ankamius]

I will admit mcqueen freakout on eagle seemed very overdone. But I don't want to be on this consensus that mcqueen is scum. Think its going to cause another mislynch.

I'm guessing you think that because yesterday went poorly and you're leery of too-easy consensuses.

Who else is scum? Is Max still your only scum read?

Max is my only scumread. But I think the last scum outside of that is in the townblock but i have no clue who.
Maybe its Eagle. Kind of doubt it, but idk.

there is no way in hell eagle would be able to fake some of his posts to me

it's literally impossible

[Prince of Renais]

Remember when you said fractured was locktown? I sure do.

[Ankamius]

I guess I could see Rei more likely than Eagle actually.

not impossible but still very unlikely

it's not worth humoring until there's good reason to I think

[Ankamius]

Remember when you said fractured was locktown? I sure do.

it's a hugely different scenario

I read fractured based on how I expected enter and taly to function together and it made sense from a town standpoint

this is enter literally giving one of the most tryhard reachouts off of very little time and giving absolutely zero signs of panicking or really any stress that I'm scumreading them at all

does that look like the same enter that spent the entire first half of BoP2 absolutely sure he was going to lose?

[Prince of Renais]

i'm not actually discrediting your read, relax.

<3

[Ankamius]

I am leaning heavily that scum are in the "townblock". Gonna be fun to have my head chewed of for that. That is a good explanation for why no ignition at least, not sure why you want to have so many people around that people see as locktown other than to rely on the paranoia that festers when you have less people you can lynch to work with.

I guess mechanically igniting early is sub-optimal, additionally it serves to withhold information and increase paranoia like this, so that's also an explanation.

Last night only 3 players could have been ignited. Even if scum takes out Ank/EE/Prince, that still leaves a fair amount of consensus town reads and such kills would only reinforce the idea that we're on the right track with the townblock and PoE.

mechanically seems neutral considering they can ignite 3 times, and they have 3 doused so far and can douse while they ignite. So last night seemed like a good time to take out three hard lock town. I don't see any other reason not to do it unless they believe the locktown are going to be useless or they are in it. So pick your poison i guess.

keep in mind

one of the reasons I don't think scum are likely to ignite early is because the exact combination of people is information just as much as when they ignite is

having more people die to being ignited at once helps obscure that information so it's harder to tell who was doused on which night

[Prince of Renais]

ankamius how would you feel if I told you that you were my second favorite person in this playerlist

[Ankamius]

I almost think we should lynch players that we think the scum would douse because that lessens the amount that they can potentially kill and we can potentially get a scum that was able to hide themselves very well.

I don't know if that is brilliant or moronic but it can stall out a scum win instead of potential mislynching players that scum have no interest in dousing.

you understand that this is essentially like me suggesting that we should lynch extrapolated eagle solely because he is probably doused, right?

[Liger_Zero]

Thanks for having me as your favorite.

[Ankamius]

I don't think a new townblock would form that easily, but that is kind of speculation that i am not sure is true or not.

I think by killing part of the town block, you basically confirm that their reads are on the right track.

that isn't true in a vacuum, it strongly depends on who exactly is dead too assuming you're referring to the ignition kills

[Prince of Renais]

wow you ignored me