Mini 607 - Cop Central [GAME OVER!]


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Post Post #25 (ISO) » Sun Jun 01, 2008 2:54 pm

Post by Skruffs »

ZeekLTK wrote:
vote: Skruffs
for being skruffs.

I'm pretty sure SensFan is not going to reveal what kind of cop was killed (see how he didn't reveal Jenter's) so Skruff's point about the Sane Cop is useless because we won't know if a sane cop died or not.
Way to immediately hope that a sane cop was killed.

And yes, in time, we WILL know if a sane cop was killed, through logic and deduction. That's all this game it. Thank you though for immediately trying to vote me while agreeing with me. :)


Mod: Thanks for the additional info. So we have a full roster, and, Zeek, we will have a chance of knowing if a sane cop was killed. Effectively, we have not lost any cops, because the retired cop is the replacement.


*Adds Zeek to the list*

Fark:

Consider this: We have 4 USABLE investigations, 4 unusable, AND 3 players who would be FORCED to fake claim an investigation.

Just forcing the mafia to fake claim will help out them.
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Post Post #26 (ISO) » Sun Jun 01, 2008 2:57 pm

Post by Tekkactus »

Aimless wrote:Hmmm... actually, Fark's replies are setting off my scumdar. I'm going to go a bit further than just an FOS.

Unvote
Vote: Farkshinsoup
I investigated Fark and got innocent. Granted I might be Naive, but at this point there's a 50% chance he's legitimately pro-town. (Literally, I did a drew up a chart to check.)

Normally I'm against massclaims, but I'm not sure in this scenario since this is my first Dethwing. I'll ponder it.
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Post Post #27 (ISO) » Sun Jun 01, 2008 3:06 pm

Post by Skruffs »

OKay... let's just do it free for all, and then do random order with everyone who's nto claimed their target.
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Post Post #28 (ISO) » Sun Jun 01, 2008 3:17 pm

Post by Skruffs »

Tek -> Fark | Innocent
Skruffs -> Aimless | ???
Aimless -> clammy | ???
drool -> Skruffs | ???

Still needing to claim targets:

clammy
Korlash
queen_of_spades
TDC
Farkshinsoup
ZeekLTK
Raging Rabbit


...
Oh wow. Korlash, Zeek, and Raging Rabbit, all in one game.
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Post Post #29 (ISO) » Sun Jun 01, 2008 5:02 pm

Post by clammy »

Investigated: Tekk
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Post Post #30 (ISO) » Sun Jun 01, 2008 5:50 pm

Post by Korlash »

I too investigated Tekk... He came up annoying... >.>
It's not my job to be right, it's my job to be convincing.

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Post Post #31 (ISO) » Sun Jun 01, 2008 7:39 pm

Post by Aimless »

Tekkactus wrote:I investigated Fark and got innocent. Granted I might be Naive, but at this point there's a 50% chance he's legitimately pro-town. (Literally, I did a drew up a chart to check.)
At first glance, your result seems suspicious. As far as I can tell, statistically speaking, working off the strength of a single investigation, the odds that Fark are pro-town are unchanged from the no-information case: 73%. I'd like to know how you arrived at 50%. (And, even then, if he's only 50% town, that's better odds that he's scum than otherwise.)

That said, my vote for Fark really had nothing to do with the math, and entirely to do with his responses to Skruff.
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Post Post #32 (ISO) » Sun Jun 01, 2008 8:03 pm

Post by ZeekLTK »

Way to immediately hope that a sane cop was killed.

And yes, in time, we WILL know if a sane cop was killed, through logic and deduction. That's all this game it. Thank you though for immediately trying to vote me while agreeing with me.
My vote had nothing to do with whether I agreed with you or not. It was just my first random vote to start the game, and since you're here obviously I'm going to vote for you (for 533). :D

But to me, what you said sounded like you were worried that if someone died and came up as "the sane cop" then we wouldn't know what their investigation results were if they didn't claim them. But I was just saying we won't know that they were the sane cop because the mod won't reveal what their sanity was when they die.
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Post Post #33 (ISO) » Sun Jun 01, 2008 9:50 pm

Post by Korlash »

... I'm hoping this game doesn't boil down to numbers... I'm terrible with numbers... 1 + 1.... .... ... 11?!?!?
It's not my job to be right, it's my job to be convincing.

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Post Post #34 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 12:19 am

Post by TDC »

I investigated ZeekLTK.
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Post Post #35 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 1:03 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

My intuition was initially strongly against a mass claim, but having thought of Skruffs' first post I agree it's absolutely the right thing to do. Look at it this way - sane and insane cops are virtually the same in this game value-wise, since both become useful only once they've figured out their sanity. Therefore, scum earn
no information at all about a cop's usefulness
by knowing the result he got on them - if he got an innocent, there's a 50% chance he's useful (insane) and 50% that's he's worthless (naive), and if he got a guilty he's 50% sane, 50% paranoid. So mass claiming gives the town extra info, while the scum get nothing.

I investigated Farkshinsoup.
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Post Post #36 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 2:02 am

Post by Farkshinsoup »

Raging Rabbit wrote:Therefore, scum earn no information at all about a cop's usefulness by knowing the result he got on them - if he got an innocent, there's a 50% chance he's useful (insane) and 50% that's he's worthless (naive), and if he got a guilty he's 50% sane, 50% paranoid. So mass claiming gives the town extra info, while the scum get nothing.
Maybe not on D1. But as the game goes on, town and scum alike will be able to make some increasingly educated guesses about who is a useful cop and who isn't - and scum will NK accordingly. And while we may still be trying to figure out whether we can 100% trust someone's investigations, that person may be killed before he can investigate scum and give us a useful result.

Hopefully, the information trail left behind by the fake claims will compensate for that advantage. But this also concerns me. Since no one's cop status is revealed when they die, it may be LYLO (or after) before we are able to piece together every player's cop status. It's only then that we would be able to verify the scums fake claims. And clever scum will certainly be coordinating at night to make sure that at least one of them comes off looking like a useful cop.

Let's be clear: I assume that every morning from here on in, we will be revealing our investigation targets and their results.

Let's say that we don't mass claim. Doesn't that give an investigative advantage to the 4 useful cops that are still out there? They may independently be able to figure out their usefulness. And they may be able to stay alive longer and do more investigations, which could be very useful in the endgame.

I guess I'm wondering if that advantage is more useful to us than the ability to trace back through the fakeclaims and to know previous investigations of dead players.

Still thinking. And I will still be waiting until everyone checks in to reveal my target and result. That having been said, I seem to be the only one with any doubts about this so far.

And I'm flattered that so many people investigated me. :wink:
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Post Post #37 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 2:10 am

Post by Skruffs »

fark:
Again, How useful is a dead, sane cop? And remember that there are three scum out there who can all claim guilty results, to construe mislynches, etc.
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Post Post #38 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 3:00 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Farkshinsoup wrote:Maybe not on D1.
Since now
is
day one, why did you not reveal your investigation yet? You can argue with everyone about the rest of the game later.

FOS:Farkshinsoup

Farkshinsoup wrote:I guess I'm wondering if that advantage is more useful to us than the ability to trace back through the fakeclaims and to know previous investigations of dead players.
I don't think so. It looks to me like the disadvantage of making the useful cops easier for scum to pinpoint is far outweighed by getting tons of info and forcing the scum to fakeclaim.
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Post Post #39 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 3:39 am

Post by Farkshinsoup »

Raging Rabbit wrote:Since now is day one, why did you not reveal your investigation yet? You can argue with everyone about the rest of the game later.
I think you misunderstood me. When I said, "Maybe on Day 1" I was responding to your statement:
Raging Rabbit wrote:So mass claiming gives the town extra info, while the scum get nothing.
Once we mass claim, that info is out there, for both town and scum. No take backs. It just seems like we should discuss the pros and cons before we do it. The thread hasn't even been open for 24 hours yet, and not everyone has checked in. Why the hurry?

Now, again, this is my first time playing the Dethy^2 set-up. Maybe it's accepted wisdom that a mass claim is the way to go. If so, I'll gladly join in. And I'll be happy to claim both target and result first once everyone has checked in. But not before that.
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Post Post #40 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 4:18 am

Post by ZeekLTK »

Also, I investigated TDC.
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Post Post #41 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 4:20 am

Post by TDC »

Hehe.
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Post Post #42 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 4:21 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

On day 1, mass claiming gains us infomation and loses absolutely nothing.
Later in the game, your points about risking the useful cops, while I disagree with them, are worth arguing.

Since you seemed to agree that claiming on day one has no cons (we can still decide whether or not to revael additional investigations later), why didn't you?
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Post Post #43 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 5:16 am

Post by Farkshinsoup »

Raging Rabbit wrote:Since you seemed to agree that claiming on day one has no cons (we can still decide whether or not to revael additional investigations later), why didn't you?
I still don't think you understand me. Let me try again.

Any information that comes out on Day 1 will not be useful to scum
YET
. But just like it will be useful to us as we lynch and get NK'd, it will also be useful to scum, who will clearly be trying to find the 4 useful cops and NK them, or get them mislynched.

So clearly, I do think there is a con to mass claiming Day 1, and that is why I am discussing my concerns and waiting to hear from all players.
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Post Post #44 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 6:18 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

As long as we don't reveal anything additional, should we decide not to, this information will be completely useless to scum through the entire game.
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Post Post #45 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 6:39 am

Post by Farkshinsoup »

Ah, ok, I see what you mean now. I was working from the assumption that we would be obligated to share our results every morning from here on in. My bad.

Ok, I'm convinced. I still reserve the right to hold back my investigations on subsequent mornings.

I investigated Jenter Brolincani.
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Post Post #46 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 6:41 am

Post by Skruffs »

There's nothing wrong with voicing opinions or objections... Fark seems to have at least been reasonable in his deliberations.

Tek -> Fark | Innocent
Skruffs -> Aimless | ???
Aimless -> clammy | ???
drool -> Skruffs | ???
clammy -> Tekk | ???
Korlash -> Tekk | ???
TDC -> Zeek | ???
Raging Rabbit -> Fark | ???
ZeekLTK -> TDC | ???

Still needing to claim targets:

queen_of_spades
TDC
Farkshinsoup

THE last people to claim targets should be the first people to claim results. That's my opinion.

The mafia got a nightkill, which means they got to night talk. Smart mafia would have probably discusses how they would claim, both targets and results, and all that stuff. If they didn't, then this might wind up being a very quick game. I'm hoping they did, smart scum should be able to bluff their way to a close endgame. :)
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Post Post #47 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 6:43 am

Post by Skruffs »

Skruffs wrote: Tek -> Fark | Innocent
Skruffs -> Aimless | ???
Aimless -> clammy | ???
drool -> Skruffs | ???
clammy -> Tekk | ???
Korlash -> Tekk | ???
TDC -> Zeek | ???
Raging Rabbit -> Fark | ???
ZeekLTK -> TDC | ???
Farkshinsoup -> Jenter | ???

Still needing to claim targets:
queen_of_spades
Sorry about that, fixed list. Yay simulpost!
Obviously the retired cop shouldn't claim that he's the cop, and should just claim Jenter's target as if it was his/her own, since he actually got a result and everything. The retired cop is unique in that he has teh strongest chance of clearing himself later on.
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Post Post #48 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 6:45 am

Post by Farkshinsoup »

Skruffs wrote:THE last people to claim targets should be the first people to claim results. That's my opinion.
QFT
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Post Post #49 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2008 7:05 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Skruffs wrote:The retired cop is unique in that he has teh strongest chance of clearing himself later on.
Does the town know if the retired cop gets NK'd?[/code]

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