Newbie 1925 - Game Over

[Micc]

MaryJoLisa replaces wilky.

I'm willing to consider a deadline extension. Please send me a PM if you care strongly either way and I'll make a decision by this time tomorrow.

Votecount 2.03

Sashaddin (2) -

TTTT, JPD

TheASC (1) -

Schiavetto

MaryJoLisa (1) -

zeebu

Not Voting (3) -

TheASC, MaryJoLisa, Sashaddin

With 7 players alive it takes 4 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2019-04-24 20:20:00).

[MaryJoLisa]

Hey guys!

*reading back*

[Sashaddin]

Quick reads list:

Town:

teacher

, Sashaddin

Townlean:
Schiavetto, JPD

Null:
TheASC, ZestOfLife

Scumlean:
zeebu

Scum:
TTTT

Need more content from players on null.

Strategically, his partner should be one of those four. That's where I'd put them in my read list personally anyways.

[Sashaddin]

@JPD: Schiavetto, who only spoke briefly of CC in 296 before hammering with confidence (Boom) is my main suspect for now. I'd say it's reasonable to think scum would have bussed here. Easy town cred to be gained.
VOTE: Schiavetto

[Sashaddin]

BTW, @teacher, remember to address me at some point so we don't get accused of being partners~*~*~

This feels weird. Like trying to make an alibi or something. Especially since Teacher got nightkilled.

[Sashaddin]

Current thoughts:
ASC
-----
zeebu,

Schia

,

teacher

-----
TTTT, JPD, Sasha
-----

Clarity

, wilky

This might be why ASC is alive instead of teacher. He didn't read Schiavetto as scum.

[Sashaddin]

I tried to quote a post I think I read but I can't find it. You were saying that you were running out of town reads at some point and that's why I got the feeling you were less assured.

FOUND IT! I FINA

fuckina

LLY FOUND IT!
It's 349 !!
Ok, so I'm not crazy now. There was one!

[Sashaddin]

There's small one's like him saying TTTT and I are his top town reads then saying TTTT and ASC are his top townreads 20 minutes later. Says he read stuff to change his mind, but I don't believe it happening in that time frame. In the first 14 minutes he made two other posts about different people. That leaves 6 minutes to read ASC's ISo and re evaluate his town reads.

There's the issue with him "misremembering" a post of TTTT's to justify his thought process for Zeebu killing teacher. Turns out this post didn't exist.

Well right now ASC has 32 posts. If he had that amount at that moment, that's an average of 11 seconds a post, most being one-liners. That's a lot of time for a single post, count it out. It's totally true.

I found it, it exists! 349

[Sashaddin]

The above was quoted from 517

[TheASC]

If they were on the wagon, I have trouble picturing them as second-position (especially when second-pos player, Sash, was the next-most popular lynch). Not ruling it out, though.

Third-position or off-wagon feels more likely

This sounds like it's a lot more specific than it actually is. Fourth flipped as confirmed town, Fifth is Schia who would see himself as confirmed town, First is TTTT who most of us have a strong town read on and second was discussed already in the post. This leaves third-position (me) and the three people off-wagon (other than Clarity of course).

BTW, @teacher, remember to address me at some point so we don't get accused of being partners~*~*~

This feels weird. Like trying to make an alibi or something. Especially since Teacher got nightkilled.

I agree that feels a little off, although not sure how much can be read into this.

Current thoughts:
ASC
-----
zeebu,

Schia

,

teacher

-----
TTTT, JPD, Sasha
-----

Clarity

, wilky

This might be why ASC is alive instead of teacher. He didn't read Schiavetto as scum.

Why exactly would I be killed? Yes, I've had experience with Schiavetto, but I'm nowhere near as good a player as some of the others here. I haven't been particularly active this game and haven't really been town read by many people here.

-----------------

Also, we're coming up on the end of the day. We definitely need an extension and/or consensus lynch today. I'm not too sure about who though - maybe zeebu, Sasha or wilky's replacement (MaryJoLisa)? I suppose it all depends on what we get from these slots over the next day or so.

[TTTT]

@MJL
feel free to do your catch-up read without the flips

[TTTT]

strategically Sash looks scummy
but tonally he feels town
there's no fake anger at being SR
just frustration with his poor play

[Schiavetto]

@Sash Nah. You're doing that thing where you decide someone is scum, and then retroactively apply that suspicion to everything they've done in order to support your read (rather than drawing a conclusion based on what you've observed). Confirmation bias is one hell of a drug!

The biggest argument I can see for scum!Sash rn is they're fickle with lynches in a way that can be read as desperate/panicky. TheASC mentioned here how quickly Sash changed their tune on zeebu. I think there's some heft to that, esp. considering how the unlynch on zeebu came immediately after a votecount which made it apparent that their zeebu-push wasn't gonna take off--so they switch things up, they poke around and see what else works (i.e., they try for me).

It's weird to me, though, that out of the four players they highlighted scum!Sash would go for me in particular. I'm going to try to lay this out clearly, but bear with me--if Sash is last scum, they know that all four of those players flip green, regardless of role. They could probably get away with going for ZoL-slot, but that point's been talked to death today--no reason to lynch the inactive slot; wouldn't do much for their image. They could go for JPD, but he's had some decent contributions since he's been back with us and there's the risk of it seeming retaliatory. For scum!Sash, the most sensible push out the bunch would probably be TheASC--somebody's already on the wagon, and as would-be last scum, scum!Sash would have more to benefit from that wagon defensively speaking.

But no, instead, Sash comes out here in full goddamn daylight and lynches me w/ some headass logic and a read on me that's more characteristic someone trying to brute-force a sudoku. They plugged in a 4 a while back, and they were so certain they'd almost solved the thing--because if this slot is a 4, then that means this square is... and then in this square you could.... but no, wait, that doesn't work. This square already has a 4. They plug in another number and try again (only to, eventually, hit another wall).

Their reads come across more like troubleshooting than like anything I'd expect from scum. TR that slot.

@TheASC et al. re: [x] I see how that might come across as fluff, gimme a sec to expand on it a bit

[Sashaddin]

But no, instead, Sash comes out here in full goddamn daylight and lynches me w/ some headass logic and a read on me that's more characteristic someone trying to brute-force a sudoku.

I litterally laughed incontrollably for close to a minute! Waaaaaah!

[Schiavetto]

Following up on 513/537:

I'm no expert in wagonomics, but I do dabble--and typically mid-wagon players stand the most to gain from bussing. Anything too late looks desperate (or in some-cases, anti-town, as a few of you seem to consider my hammer), and anything too early is an unnecessary risk. There's something to be said for parking an early lynch on your partner and reaping that sweet, sweet towncred--when they flip red and you're seen as a longtime supporter of the wagon. But Day 1? Cui bono? T^4 has nothing to gain from that move, esp. considering they were p widely townread at that point yesterday. No reason to suspect a hardbus at this stage--more likely, if scum was on the wagon, they were hiding somewhere in the middle (2-4th position in this instance).

4th-pos was NKed, so we can rule that out.

2nd-pos is a bit more interesting, but as I was saying earlier, had they been partners, Sash would've had nothing to gain from joining that lynch. In fact, looking at some of the lynchcounts from that day, if we read the two as partners (Sasha and Claire sonds like a Europop/electronica duo btw), it's practically suicide for one to have lynched the other there.

Meanwhile, 3rd-pos comes at an appropriate time--Sash is sitting at 3 votes, and seems to be favored. It's a great opportunity to plant a lynch on CC and establish some distance--but then teacher shifts. At that point, there's no way for the 3rd lyncher to pull out without it looking sketch. They can't bail, so they park.

[Sashaddin]

The biggest argument I can see for scum!Sash rn is they're fickle with lynches in a way that can be read as desperate/panicky. TheASC mentioned here how quickly Sash changed their tune on zeebu. I think there's some heft to that, esp. considering how the unlynch on zeebu came immediately after a votecount which made it apparent that their zeebu-push wasn't gonna take off--so they switch things up, they poke around and see what else works (i.e., they try for me).

It's weird to me, though, that out of the four players they highlighted scum!Sash would go for me in particular. I'm going to try to lay this out clearly, but bear with me--if Sash is last scum, they know that all four of those players flip green, regardless of role. They could probably get away with going for ZoL-slot, but that point's been talked to death today--no reason to lynch the inactive slot; wouldn't do much for their image. They could go for JPD, but he's had some decent contributions since he's been back with us and there's the risk of it seeming retaliatory. For scum!Sash, the most sensible push out the bunch would probably be TheASC--somebody's already on the wagon, and as would-be last scum, scum!Sash would have more to benefit from that wagon defensively speaking.

1. Yeah, I tried from a new angle, and the first thing that sprang to my eyes was your quickhammer. That's why I got a small interest on you right now.

2. The last time I was scum, for the record, I got to lylo because I wasn't nightkilling the most obvious target. I'm not afraid to gamble! viewtopic.php?f=2&t=77764

[MaryJoLisa]

Current thoughts:
ASC
-----
zeebu,

Schia

,

teacher

-----
TTTT, JPD, Sasha
-----

Clarity

, wilky

This might be why ASC is alive instead of teacher. He didn't read Schiavetto as scum.

Awww. Did this post give it away?

[MaryJoLisa]

Well that stinks. I joined the game to play with Teacher, TTTT, and Clearly Clarity. At least there's TTTT.

[Schiavetto]

...did Mary J. Blige just whiteflag or am I tripping?

[TTTT]

BFFs 4ever

[TTTT]

^@MJL

[MaryJoLisa]

...did Mary J. Blige just whiteflag or am I tripping?

What is whiteflag?

[TheASC]

Current thoughts:
ASC
-----
zeebu,

Schia

,

teacher

-----
TTTT, JPD, Sasha
-----

Clarity

, wilky

This might be why ASC is alive instead of teacher. He didn't read Schiavetto as scum.

Awww. Did this post give it away?

What are you trying to say here?

[MaryJoLisa]

Current thoughts:
ASC
-----
zeebu,

Schia

,

teacher

-----
TTTT, JPD, Sasha
-----

Clarity

, wilky

This might be why ASC is alive instead of teacher. He didn't read Schiavetto as scum.

Awww. Did this post give it away?

What are you trying to say here?

Here's some background on that comment:

@MJL
feel free to do your catch-up read without the flips

TTTT knows that I'd have liked to do a full read-through of the game without looking at flips. I got to about post 175 before I noticed these reveals had been quoted on this page. But that's okay! I'll just do a regular read-through knowing the outcome of D1 and N1. I got a good sampling of first impression reads on a lot of the slots.

[TTTT]

confirming that makes sense to me
doesn't mean she isn't scum
but that checks out from my POV