Starcraft Mafia: Legacy of the Void [Game Over]

[Alchemist21]

Alchemist2: In D1, Alchemist implied that he was some kind of investigator role, and by D2 he magically got a scum-read off Wisdom who in fact flipped scum. From my POV, Alchemist is the towniest of towns that have ever towned. And if Alchemist thinks Liger is scum, that’s going to weigh heavily with me unless Cerberus’s post #1897 has merit.

........
you know its not magic, right?

Everything I do is magic.

[Liger_Zero]

Alchemist2: In D1, Alchemist implied that he was some kind of investigator role, and by D2 he magically got a scum-read off Wisdom who in fact flipped scum. From my POV, Alchemist is the towniest of towns that have ever towned. And if Alchemist thinks Liger is scum, that’s going to weigh heavily with me unless Cerberus’s post #1897 has merit.

........
you know its not magic, right?

Everything I do is magic.

[Liger_Zero]

I think my final answers are Iconeum and Cerberus.

[Liger_Zero]

I would swap out Cerberus with Hydra but I think scum have someone who is playing this game like 5d chess and that would be Cerberus.

[Hydra TBD]

I bet I could play 5d chess.

Spoiler:

- Hydra

[Hydra TBD]

Hydra TBD (2-headed Stealth Hydra):

D3 and still no strong opinions.

We probably deserve this.

But still, ow.

RCEnigma:

Null. RCE’s reads feel out of sync with the pack I thought I saw him running with so I need to spend some time thinking about whether that’s a town or a scum move, but I think scum!RCE would be more savvy and blend in with town.

Which reads felt out of sync?

Cerberus v666:

Still town. He was an early voter on the Wisdom wagon and I’m not getting scummy vibes. I like his game solving in post #1897 because he raised some points I hadn’t considered.

On the contrary, I disliked how 1897 offered no reads independent of spec. Read a bit like busywork.

- Hydra

[Volxen MJL Combo Pack]

You become a direct CC to Alchemist at that point who is claiming a guilty. If wisdom flips town there then your read doesn't matter mechanically. If you believe Alchemist is fake claiming there, meh as town he gets himself killed on a mislynch. He's a better player than that.

So you knowing that you are not a cop, continued to press that alchemist's ACTUAL guilty could possibly be wrong because you had a hunch wisdom was town.

If you're town here I don't mind testing out gambits, it's how you get better, but figure out how to bail when you are impeding on towns wincon.

Right now I'm reconsidering everything and building new theories based on what has been revealed, and Liger could be scum if

scum were informed there was no Cop

. That explains why he claimed unprompted on D1, why he specified his target beforehand. Why he wasn't shot on N1 (or N2). I mean, everything!

Umm I am pretty sure I could be scum regardless of that being informed or not....

@Liger (and also those who asked why I thought he was conf!town earlier): I am treating Liger as a good player having a bad game (regardless of alignment) as opposed to someone who really sucks at Mafia. This is why I am trying to build narratives that make more sense for him having brain farted this one time rather than being totally incompetent.

For example, a townie faking Cop clear = would be exposed if dead. It is bad if the target (Wisdom) flips scum or if a real Cop either CC's or gets flipped, but will still prove it was a fake clear. It could be withdrawn later on if it feels like things aren't going the way they were planned.

Now SCUM faking a clear on their partner directly gets them lynched right after their p. It doesn't protect their p if they (Liger) flip first. It makes no sense for scum to claim Cop not knowing if there is a real Cop in the game or not.

So, while the claim was bad it is much more worse play to come from scum still. I see no benefit to it, and -knowing Wisdom was scum regardless of who else is in there- I don't see him approving this kind of silly suicidal gambit.

Faking an innocent result on Wisdom is a risky play for Liger_Zero regardless of his alignment. The question is, does town!Liger or scum!Liger stand to gain more from the gambit? I would argue the answer is clearly that scum!Liger gains far more from the gambit (if it is successful) than town!Liger does. Scum!Liger would potentially be able to indefinitely falsely town clear Wisdom, or at least delay his lynch with the fake innocent result. If Alchemist hadn’t investigated Wisdom on night one, then Wisdom most likely would not have been lynched on day two given Liger’s fake innocent result. The only benefits to town!Liger are really 1) he might have been able to bait the nightkill and 2) he could have stopped someone he was townreading from being mislynched.

I don’t think this kind of gambit is at all likely to come from town!Liger. He mentioned wanting to bait the nightkill (1716), but by fakeclaiming investigative on day one and saying that he would investigate Wisdom, he was discouraging the real investigative(s) from investigating Wisdom (especially if said investigative(s) were townreading Liger). And I find it hard to believe that town!Liger would be townreading Wisdom so strongly over his day one play that he would consider it appropriate to come out on day two and fake an innocent result on him. If town!Liger believed that strongly that Wisdom was town, why not simply trust that the real investigative(s) would investigate him and resolve the issue? It should have been clear to town!Liger based on the events of day one that Wisdom would be the priority investigation target given the BP claim. Again, here he was just discouraging the real investigative(s) from investigating Wisdom because they assume Liger already has that covered. Fortunately, Alchemist still investigated Wisdom anyways.

This clearly wasn’t just about baiting the nightkill either (as Liger claimed in post 1716), because on day one Liger lied about being an investigative who planned to investigate Wisdom, and then on day two he

extends

the lie by claiming to have gotten an innocent result on Wisdom. If he was simply baiting the nightkill, then he would have revealed that he isn’t really an investigative role at the beginning of day two; not on day three after Wisdom has already been lynched. And he certainly wouldn’t have lied about getting an innocent result on Wisdom if this was all just about baiting the nightkill. Not only that, but even

after

Alchemist came out with his guilty result on Wisdom (1573), Liger

still

showed resistance to lynching Wisdom and maintained his lie about getting an innocent result on him:

I really don't think this role thing is gonna help us here. I want some substance not this other business. I want to leave this Wis/Alch/Me on side for a day or two. I think it will sort itself out.

Alchemist, who else are you scumreading?

What is town!Liger’s motivation in maintaining the lie at this point? Alchemist had just hard-claimed one-shot gunsmith and a guilty result on Wisdom. Town!Liger knows that his innocent result was fake. Even if he had suspicions of Alchemist being scum, he

knows

that his own claim is fake, and he doesn’t know that Alchemist’s claim is fake. And yet he still maintained his fake innocent result on Wisdom and acted as if he was confused as to how he and Alchemist could have possibly gotten different investigative results on the same person, and he tried to shift attention away from Wisdom by saying things like “I want to leave this Wis/Alch/Me on side for a day or two”. He only voted for Wisdom (1639) after it was essentially a foregone conclusion that he would be lynched due to Alchemist’s guilty result.

If Liger came out at the beginning of day two and just admitted that he isn’t an investigative role and that he was hoping to get nightkilled, that would be one thing. But where he loses all credibility is when he goes on to not only fake an innocent result, but also challenge Alchemist on his guilty result.

The most likely explanation for all of this is that Liger_Zero and Wisdom are scum together, Liger gambitted by publicly declaring that he would investigate Wisdom and then faked an innocent result on him to try and prevent/delay his lynch, and the gambit backfired because Alchemist investigated Wisdom.

- Volxen

[RCEnigma]

In short, RCE isn't group scum. Assuming an Arsonist exists (just a possibility) he could have been that (and I know he's good at playing solo) but neither I not FL were doused so no. RCE knew we were Masons for real from the get go (he knows us both well enough) and was trying to keep us from being too obv!town so as not to be NK'd. I saw what he was doing clearly, while FL didn't get that play (maybe it's because I sometimes use the same tactic of keeping my strong TRs less confirmed to protect them from the NK)

In short, RCE is town here (sorry if it gets you NK'd, mate)

How did he know this? Was something said in game that he would be able to reasonably arrive at this conclusion?

--MJL

Some that was said and not said. I won't say I believed flat out they were masons though they did claim it day 1. Flavor alluded to his flip confirming A50, or them being targeted together. The way FL brought A50 into his town block. With the kind of player A50 is it stuck out that he wasn't actively trying to sort him.

Then FL started giving out his townreads that didn't really include A50 though he did differ to him multiple times as if he considered him town anyway.

I won't argue I'm a very good player, but I do think I'm able to read between the lines somewhat. If that's what you would call it... They did explicitly claim. I did think the Miller part was bs so goes to show what I know.

Also A50 recognized what i was doing with his slot pretty immediately as it isn't the first time and I likely would have done so with Vedith as well had he remained in the game. It just made me sure he was town and that their connection held weight.

[RCEnigma]

VOTE: Ico

If you explained your vote here, I've missed it. Why did choose Iconium when they haven't posted since D1?

--MJL

Well day 1 he actively attempt to shift investigatives elsewhere and discredit the idea that shadow (wisdom) should be investigated at all. You can go back and read through our back and forth on it. It's gujsed as conflicting game theory but I think it was blatant misdirection.

[u r a person 2]

is it bad that I read MJ's recent post and saw the whole thing as an argument for why Liger might actually be town?

[u r a person 2]

uggggghhhhhhhh did you really make that play

[u r a person 2]

UNVOTE:

[u r a person 2]

I really don't think this role thing is gonna help us here. I want some substance not this other business. I want to leave this Wis/Alch/Me on side for a day or two. I think it will sort itself out.

Alchemist, who else are you scumreading?

this like only comes from fake claiming town lol you should have just retracted

[Volxen MJL Combo Pack]

I would swap out Cerberus with Hydra but I think scum have someone who is playing this game like 5d chess and that would be Cerberus.

Why Cerberus specifically? You mentioned in 1829 that you believe the FL nightkill is most likely to come from scum!Cerberus, but you never elaborated on why that is.

- Volxen

[u r a person 2]

oh that post was by volxen? Can someone tell me again why we're not just lynching volxen?

[u r a person 2]

oooh maybe they're scum together and that was the whole point of the post and why volxen didn't react to my unvote

Somebody stop me I'm off the rails

[Liger_Zero]

You off the rails is too entertaining.

[u r a person 2]

y ty sir

[Liger_Zero]

@Volxen The problem you have with your analysis it is going by "which side has most to gain" not "what is the underlying motivation that is going on here", gain is part of motivation but not the most crucial element, the most prominent is mindset and driving forces of actions.

For example depending on how risk adverse a player is, they can go for big reward big risky plays or go for smaller rewards smaller risk plays. That can allow you to figure out how risky a player operates under but won't tell you what mindset is driving them. Then you go into the leap which is "what makes sense most given these conditions for a player to do in each alignment", and based on that yes, it makes more sense for scum to do that because it offers bigger potential reward but that is ignoring mindset of player and how they are determining actions at each level.

[Almost50]

In short, RCE isn't group scum. Assuming an Arsonist exists (just a possibility) he could have been that (and I know he's good at playing solo) but neither I not FL were doused so no. RCE knew we were Masons for real from the get go (he knows us both well enough) and was trying to keep us from being too obv!town so as not to be NK'd. I saw what he was doing clearly, while FL didn't get that play (maybe it's because I sometimes use the same tactic of keeping my strong TRs less confirmed to protect them from the NK)

In short, RCE is town here (sorry if it gets you NK'd, mate)

How did he know this? Was something said in game that he would be able to reasonably arrive at this conclusion?

--MJL

Erm, both FL & I actually hard claimed Masons (albeit jokingly). This is why I explained RCE knew us both well enough to recognize we were serious but trying not to look so.

[popsofctown]

Volxen's catch up post is really hollow.

I don't really want to vote Liger after reading his content as seeming town all day. His play is very dumb as both scum and town and I think it moves the needle scum but I have a hard time feeling it. Moreso it doesn't seem like I really need to make the effort to decide since his lynch seems inevitable anyway.

[Almost50]

^^ This is the kind of post that keeps me scum reading you independently even if I have written you out twice of being Wisdom's buddy. It's non-committal and LAMIST to the max. You're neither supporting nor opposing Liger's lynch, and it's almost like you're subtly hinting you

know

he's town.

You're also shading Volxen (the weakest link) without making any specific points about them.

May I request a clearer, more definitive read list with some reasoning, please?

[popsofctown]

Yeah, but not on a Sunday

[Iconeum]

Liger is probably mafia doctor, right?

"I shot shadow he's actually BP"
"I saw Liger target shadow N1"

Those things both get covered by claiming to be a cop investigating shadow N1.

What?

Wisdom didn't flip BP scum like I expected him to, he flipped goon.

Claiming BP makes more sense if he can Proof a Bullet somehow. It's not high on the list of attractive claims to start with.

Maybe I'm overestimating shadow by an awful lot.

Around his claim there was a lot of talk about how to handle the night actions. ICO is the slot that sticks out as actively trying to dissuade town from, as he put it "wasting town resources" on checking shadow or taking a shot there.

VOTE: Ico

If you explained your vote here, I've missed it. Why did choose Iconium when they haven't posted since D1?

--MJL

Well day 1 he actively attempt to shift investigatives elsewhere and discredit the idea that shadow (wisdom) should be investigated at all. You can go back and read through our back and forth on it. It's gujsed as conflicting game theory but I think it was blatant misdirection.

I was definitely pushing towards not using town actions against a claimed BP slot, and I'd do it all over again anytime. How is that scum?

I'd have lynched that claim, absolutely. Using actions on that slot to test the claim would be very bad.

[Iconeum]

All of those who are questioning why I haven't played since D1 is BECAUSE YOU FUCKING QUICKLYNCHED ON D2.
Even with a guilty, it's not very good play.