You get this because I like Taly and Ank, and Taly requested this. You don't deserve it.'
In post 2462, Taly wrote:And I need mbaki to talk to me about solid strategies with powers, and specifically how he feels about my strategies in 2395 I don't want a one-sided conversation with mbaki because that was basically our D1 interaction lol.
And I will warn you I skimmed that post when you made it and haven't looked at it today, this is purely my strategic opinion.
There is way too much stupid in this thread.
Okay. So here are all the options we should be acknowledging today. Rank is off the table for obvious reasons, 1of4 is off because its a much better last-scum-finding tool, and quiz is off because again, its much better when 2 scum or less are alive. If I messed up any of the mechanics let mek now, I'm on very little sleep after a very long day and don't really care to double check.
1 path today, and my least preferred, is to do the Reveal path. How this path goes is we Reveal -> Double Reveal -> (x) for the win. So, today, we would Reveal RC. TMCK dies in the night and we also get to Reveal again tomorrow. Second reveal should be someone like Titus or a generic sketchball slot like Overkill, since we want to not care if scum off them. If RC is wolf, we lynch him, wolves get a night kill. This leaves us at 11:2. At this point, you quiz, guess town always, because scum literally can't put up a wolf - after three kills, the numbers are 8:2. Lynch the wolf, another kill, 7:1. 1 of 4, if you lynch wolf it ends but if not the next day is 6:1 with scum confirmed 1/3 players. The game is solved. So, you guess town and hit town, and then its 10:2 and you have 1 confirmed town. A mix of roles should win this world with dead RC!scum, I can expand if needed. If RC is town, then we get a second reveal - probably myself, but RC can pick. After this second reveal, we get a coalition guided by conf town RC and conf town mbaki / whoever RC wants to reveal (he's ic in this world he gets to pick unilaterally). Not auto, but a very likely town win.
2 path today, and again not my preference, is to Veto. Kill off two scummy slots, and slightly higher mathematical probability two other scummy slots are scum, and that's about it. That's about it. It does thin the heard and help a bit with coalition, and it keeps TMCK alive. However, this is a much more useful late game ability after most other things - 1 of 4, coalition, etc. There actually would be merit to using this today if it was a different lobby, but with the game in its current condition there's no way we'd all agree on a good set of 4, so I would not suggest this today.
So, the "good" options left are coalition, dance, vengeful.
3 path is coalition twice. "Good" because confirms scum in a pool. Keeps TMCK alive, along with everybody else. Bad because RC vs mbaki is either TvT or TvS, and if RC is scum he isn't going to let you guys coalition all town even if he's not in it. If we are both town, us both not being in it makes it mathematically very hard. I am assuming RC is never letting me in a coalition and our IC is ... cutting out the insults, scum reading me as well, so I'm not going to be in it. There are 12 other town, and picking 9 of them is *very* unlikely, especially in the RC!town world. Also, we want to be at odds, same with why even numbers help scum and 3:1 mylo is worse than 2:1 lylo. I think this option has merit. However, if we coalition, I want
Taly, Nancefloor, and Johnny
in every coalition we do. I am very confident none of them are scum. I have more reads, but we can talk about those if we do Coalition. Those 3 + TMCK is a good set to start with, and if there's scum revealed Veto can narrow it down. Hey, you know the problem with this plan? It doesn't help us solve the last scum, only that there is scum. Its a good idea overall, but if say we pick a pool of 9 that has 2 scum, and we find and kill one with veto and etc, like, that's a lot of people to burn through. Its a very dangerous situation.
I could accept a double coalition, but I don't think its my favorite option.
Dance / Vengeful accomplish the sameish things, so I'm putting them together. I think this is the best choice for today, probably. Now, here's why this whole conversation is stupid and Vengeful eclipses Dance. If we pick Dance, the benefit is we get to pick two players to kill. The most likely result is we lynch 2 LHF, one of the scum probably ends up with TMCK who ya'll have publicly declared immune to lynch, and generally scum get to control the narrative. It does let us kill two players without a night kill, which basically makes it close to straight up better than Veto at this stage in the game, so there's that. However, let's look at Vengeful.
Vengeful, if we lynch town, we/they get to pick a second shot. Essentially, still two dead people with control of town and no night kill, just like 8ball but actually safer. So it accomplishes the same as Dance, with the benefit that we control the two people we kill, scum doesn't. Dance is narrative building from scum, they hold the cards, whereas with Vengeful we do. Keep in mind 3 scum 12 lynchable town (there's an IC) makes it mathematically not likely to hit scum, so the most probable outcome is 1-2 dead town. If we lynch scum, they kill TMCK. I don't get why you're all acting like that's a bad thing. If we lynch scum, that means we have now killed
2 scum and only 1 town
. Its literally fucking 12:2, *and* we still have a bunch of cool shit. Quiz is free at that point as it makes another IC; scum literally do not have the numbers to put up a scum to get the 3 night kills. I illustrated this above. So, we create another IC (this time with bulletproof!) along with a lynch, and then there's still coalition / veto to clean up coalition / 1of4 to find the last scum / reveal to create
another
IC / etc. If we lynch scum today we close to auto win in this setup. Ank said this is the same as a lynch if we hit scum; yes, it is, and lynching scum auto wins with these numbers in this setup with even a *little* bit of skill. Lynching scum with Dance accomplishes the same thing, which is why I still think its the second best option, but vengeful's utility eclipses it.
Does that make sense? If eli7 wasn't good enough I can eli5 it.
password scrambled, aka account dead. message Eddie Cane if you need me.
Hydra of Dannflor and Nancy Drew 39
