Mini Normal 2071 (Game Over!)

[skitter30]

huh

i don't really get that vibe off of him much at all really.

his posts feel very ~thorough~ and analytical-y, like from a very *logical* pov. almost to the extent of iioa

[u r a person 2]

We are not connecting at all this game and I'm really disappointed by that because i think you're town

All game I've been hoping we would sync up

[skitter30]

:/

well i've kinda come around and i'm not convinced ur scum anymore. i kidna think ur town now. i also changed my mind on sash

i don't know where scum is rn
i don't like exilon's posts. like i can tell he put a lot of ~effort~ into them but i can't tell if what he's writing is what he actually ~believes~

[u r a person 2]

I mean, like I said, I could see him as scum before I could see inferno, or gamr at this point being scum

but I wouldn't want to lynch there before egix

[u r a person 2]

Obviously, I don't think they're scum together, and I realize now that has also fed into my town read on Exelon Energy Corp

[Sashaddin]

if he's scum why does he make a vote that he knows u will call scummy?

Because he doesn't care about being called scum by me I thought. He's hiding himself by being obvious...

[Sashaddin]

ftr i actually think ur play here looks *drastically* different than the scumgame i played with

if this is ur townplay u look a lot scummier as town than as scum

You're not the first to tell me this... a lot of people who did my meta approves.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

What's weird is you think everyone on your wagon is town.

yeah, it would be really weird if I weren't actually making an attempt to solve the game

I don't think I had a town game where everyone on my wagon was town. So it's still weird for me.

I’m afraid you have not played enough games.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

VOTE: Sashaddin

Ok so I'm much more comfortable here than on Garmr and there's no suspicious behaviour that I think I should try and build a new wagon on. I don't fully understand where scumreads on Garmr are coming from: the wagon so far is Sashaddin's vote which is really :v and Inferno's vote which is based on this:

God I don't want a last minute lynch on a spontaneous wagon.

God I don't want a last minute lynch on a spontaneous wagon.

why not tho

1 sash is going to flip scum.
2.less information than wagons that have been going all day.

Unless you wanna lynch inferno?

Given that the only “spontaneous wagon” going on is UR2, this reads suspiciously like scum worried that his partner is going to get lynched out of nowhere because the wagon he’s been pushing falls apart. Plus saying I should be lynched, especially when widely townread indicates to me that he’s scum that wants to get rid of me.

I think this is really shaky reasoning too: sure he says it's scum that's worried his partner gets lynched but... nothing seems to indicate that's actually the case. It's a possibility but nothing makes it more likely than Garmr just being town who doesn't want urap (a non-scumread) to be lynched over Sasha (a scumread.) Additionally if Garmr really wanted rid of Inferno he'd probably do it over the Night phase rather than try to lynch one of the hardest players in the list to lynch.

Otoh Sasha seems quite likely to flip scum for reasons I stated yesterday+the way he's using the kill to push Garmr here feels really wrong. I probably should've kept voting him yesterday lol, although chances are we would've lynched ruirui anyhow.

Not really understanding why you’re voting Sash here. Like at all.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Looks like high risk gambler is sash partner

Explain this for me please. Why do you think HRG is Sash's scum partner and why do you have such high confidence about it?

This reads very fake to me considering the timing.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?

I took some (work) time to parse all the threads. I might have missed something but here is a summary:

No reads on Garmr or CDB: Bob, Egix, Exilon

LUV: Garmr is town (876)
URAP2: Garmr is town (343, 418), no reads on CDB ever (?)
Garmr: CDB is scum (286)
Inferno: Garmr is scum, CDB is town. No specific posts, just the main trend of the thread.
Skitter: Garmr town (110) and CDB town (285)
Ausuka: CDB is town (212, 800)
Me: CDB as town, Garmr's alignement could be town but I'm not fully convinced yet. I don't know what to do with my vote on him...

So yeah, CDB came out slightly more townie than Garmr. It was not my impression until I did this. It's an interesting (and long) exercise to make, but it has benefits.
How many of those reads are real though, right? My theory of the nightkill doesn't hold water now I guess. I'll go back to (real) work and continue thinking about this.

What's your read on Garmr, Exilon?

I read CDB as town when he was discussing with urap2, btw

Garmr is... difficult to analyse, personally. There's something in his tone that I feel could come from scum but his actions and pushes signal something more town like to me

, so I don't think I'm going to be able to confidently sort him based on that alone. I don't think it's going to happen today, either.

yeah, do think about it Cause being wishy washy doesn't lead to town wins. Who could benefit the most from having their townread confirmed or their scumread disproved via NK?

Right? Honestly thought I was the only one.

Bob is town.

Still not seeing it.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Garmr, if you're town, I think you're making this game a bit more confused than I'd generally like it to be.

If you're scum, you're playing out of your mind well, I think. I'm not voting here today

Amen.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Doesn’t feel like scum are being wagoned right now.

[u r a person 2]

you got a town read on egix, uzi?

[u r a person 2]

if so, can you help me see it?

[High Risk Gamble]

VOTE: Skitter

This is where we really should be lynching today.
And I don't want to vote outside of Skitter, Bob, and Ausuka either.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

you got a town read on egix, uzi?

if so, can you help me see it?

I had town read Egix after he further explained his opening post in 104. Specifically what he was he able to infer from Channel’s reaction at the time. It give me the impression he knew what was doing and what he was trying to accomplish with that reaction test since I myself was able to derive something from that read. As opposed to just using it as a standard excuse for his awkward and arguably scummy entrance.

I liked how he responded to you in 105. The latter especially. The bold tone doesn’t come off as unnecessarily defensive. Just something about the bite there that I like.

I guess he’s null for me now.

[Sashaddin]

VOTE: Skitter

This is where we really should be lynching today.
And I don't want to vote outside of Skitter, Bob, and Ausuka either.

Skitter is not my first choice here, but since we talked she's the one I'm most curious to see flip.
Why don't you like the Egix wagon, HRG?

[Sashaddin]

Doesn’t feel like scum are being wagoned right now.

True

[Exilon]

i can track his thought process from post to post and his posts holistically make sense as a whole
like i feel like i can understand how he's approaching the game

for my own reference, this post is referring to bob, correct?

This is very valid. I just don't know how likely it is! But I personally would give someone town cred if a scumread of them, especially someone if they were pushing (which isn't the case, but anyway) was NK'd.

why would u give someone towncred here

Usually, I'm not expecting scum to decide to nightkill someone that they've been pushing for during the day. a) They prove their read wrong; b) they force themselves to find other targets to push and fake more reasoning and scumreads. So yeah, I'd give someone twoncred for that if it happened.

huh

i don't really get that vibe off of him much at all really.

his posts feel very ~thorough~ and analytical-y, like from a very *logical* pov. almost to the extent of iioa

It's as if you're saying posting a lot of supportive evidence is easily faked.
And yet I never fail to post an analysis and conclusions I reach from the information I gather, and at the very least I also follow up on it.

As opposed to, you know, fencesitting all day.

UNVOTE: till we get a vc

And not putting your money where your mouth is.

[Exilon]

EBWOP: And putting your money where your mouth is
damn

[skitter30]

Doesn’t feel like scum are being wagoned right now.

Kinda agree

[skitter30]

for my own reference, this post is referring to bob, correct?

Yep

[skitter30]

Usually, I'm not expecting scum to decide to nightkill someone that they've been pushing for during the day. a) They prove their read wrong; b) they force themselves to find other targets to push and fake more reasoning and scumreads. So yeah, I'd give someone twoncred for that if it happened.

Ok fair enough. I was kinda thinking that if someone's scumread got nk'd that meand their reads are bad kinda holistically so i wouldnt really give them towncred for having wrong reads.

I don't know if i would give people towncred for this really.

Exilon how were u reading channel at eod?

[skitter30]

VOTE: Skitter

This is where we really should be lynching today.
And I don't want to vote outside of Skitter, Bob, and Ausuka either.

I kinda feel like this stems from a playstyle clash more than anything else, but go for it