Newbie 1927 | Stuff I Found Online Xi | Over

[Exilon]

If you are scum, which I suspect you are, at least one other person is bussing.

At least??

[Not_Mafia]

Gimmick and Skygazer

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 3.03

A conspiracy to kill IE6 is the heroic tale of some web-developers at youtube who set out to make the internet better place for other web developers.

---

Lynching

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

Everybody

(0): Nobody

Not Voting

(5): Baezu, Exilon, Gimm1ck, Not_Mafia, Skygazer

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-05-10 20:00:00).

Mod notes: Keep it fun!

[Exilon]

Gimmick and Skygazer

why

[Gimm1ck]

^

[Baezu]

^^

[Exilon]

Meanwhile it would be great if we could start thinking of potential scum mates.

[Gimm1ck]

Exilon, how about you do that instead of typing it out for the rest of us to see? I have made up my mind. How about you?

[Exilon]

I am thinking about it and I did a few skimthroughs and ISO reading in order to get something.

My starting point readlist is as follows:

Gimm Town
NM scum

either Skygazer or Baezu scum

Now let's grab our trusty VCs:

D1 VC:

Official Vote Count 1.11

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Moomn

(5): Skygazer, Not_Mafia, Voted, Gimm1ck, Exilon

<-- LYNCH

Not_Mafia

(3): Baezu, Froce, PvtUrist

Froce

(1): Moomn

Not Voting

(0):

None.

Mod notes: A lynch!

D2 VC:

Official Vote Count 2.06

With 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch.

Froce

(4): Skygazer, Not_Mafia, Exilon, PvtUrist

<-- LYNCH

Skygazer

(1): Froce

Not_Mafia

(1): Gimm1ck

Not Voting

(1): Baezu

Mod notes: A lynch!

Day1 Wilky pushed for townies - Froce and Moomn, joining Voted on the wagon, and had some interactions with NM, which looking at it now, are a bit superficial. I notice they both were pinged by newb!scum tells, which... well.
Skygazer comes in and doesn't change Wilky's vote, which I find interesting and suspicious. Back then the reason was compromise lynch but scum!skygazer has a lot to gain from shifting attention from NM and defending him based on meta. Also in hindsight skygazer doesn't actually produce a read on NM and just shoves sorting NM into a future occasion... which is fine but it's now day 3 and no attempt has been made on Skygazer's part to do so. (even assuming Town!NM here this is an easy and reliable setup for a mislynch later on.)

I'm absolutely willing to believe there were 2 scum on the Moomn wagon especially when the other wagon was NM; this makes it more likely that NM is scum along with someone on the Moomn wagon and the only possibility would be Skygazer.

Day 2 a wagon starts to form on NM with Gimm and Baezu both voting for him and then conveniently Skygazer does not address the NM case and instead votes Froce, beginning a counterwagon that Not_Mafia follows later on the day after being prodded. Baezu then puts Froce at L-1, but removes the vote after realizing what it is (and btw this pings me as townie). Quick note post 352 is pvturist posting an interesting readlist and I think he was on to something there, where had Skygazer as scumleaning.

Near the end of the day, there's some discussion about skygazer being possibly scum and wagon maybe forming on her but it doesn't go anywhere, because I decide to put Froce at L-1 to force a claim. And then that disaster happened.

Baezu pinged me as town a few times. One ex. I pointed above; another is 455;
another example, and especially considering the game we're playing, is 377, where she pins Skygazer/NM as potential scum. Her reads haven't been perfect, but they've been pretty ok, which in my eyes is townie.

There's a few other things I felt or noticed that further tilt the scales on skygazer being scum over baezu.

My conclusion is as thus:
The most likely scumteams are:
Skygazer / NM - 70%
Skygazer / Baezu - 20%

What this means is that my only fear atm is that NM is in fact a mislynch - and if he is, it would have been setup by a potential scumteam of Skygazer / x.

I'd like to ask you guys, in the spirit of being as thorough as possible. What's your opinion of this?

[Lycanfire]

Skygazer² has been prodded. They have (expired on 2019-05-09 06:47:00) until we begin searching for a replacement.

[Skygazer]

my opinion is im not scum

will effort post if i can find some coffee

[Skygazer]

I am thinking about it and I did a few skimthroughs and ISO reading in order to get something.

My starting point readlist is as follows:

Gimm Town
NM scum

hold up!! what changed between now and 421??

Skygazer comes in and doesn't change Wilky's vote, which I find interesting and suspicious. Back then the reason was compromise lynch but scum!skygazer has a lot to gain from shifting attention from NM and defending him based on meta. Also in hindsight skygazer doesn't actually produce a read on NM and just shoves sorting NM into a future occasion... which is fine but it's now day 3 and no attempt has been made on Skygazer's part to do so. (even assuming Town!NM here this is an easy and reliable setup for a mislynch later on.)

Yes, I didn't change wilky's vote. Moomn was the largest wagon and we had less than two days til deadline. I'm not sure how that's interesting or suspicious. If you go and read literally any NM game this aligns with his town meta and scum meta. I'm not going to let a player who could very easily be town get lynched when I had readon to SR moomn (as I mentioned, their read on NM was tmi, there should be no reason to actually have a TR on NM there). I mentioned that NM needed to be sorted on process of elimination. I have myself as town, gim/ex as likely town, leaving baezu and NM as likely scum. That's how I've arrived at my NM read today. Up until both PRs died, I also had a PR read on NM which is why I didn't want to see him voted off D1. He's playing almost exactly like he was in a game I modded off-site where he got lol-lynched as an

innocent child

(!!!) who hadn't outed yet. Now that both PRs are dead, NM's play here makes less sense to me and I don't need to white-knight him to save what I thought was a power-role.

I'm absolutely willing to believe there were 2 scum on the Moomn wagon especially when the other wagon was NM; this makes it more likely that NM is scum along with someone on the Moomn wagon and the only possibility would be Skygazer.

scum very much don't like voting together. if you meta dive me you'll see I especially don't like voting with scum and would gladly D1 bus if i needed to. regardless, i think it's poor play to arrive at that gamestate conclusion and say that i must be the only option just because you arbitrarily cleared gimm earlier for no apparent reason after having gimm as scum D2.

Day 2 a wagon starts to form on NM with Gimm and Baezu both voting for him and then conveniently Skygazer does not address the NM case and instead votes Froce, beginning a counterwagon that Not_Mafia follows later on the day after being prodded. Baezu then puts Froce at L-1, but removes the vote after realizing what it is (and btw this pings me as townie). Quick note post 352 is pvturist posting an interesting readlist and I think he was on to something there, where had Skygazer as scumleaning.

again, why would I address a wagon on what I thought was a PR? it'd be bad play to scream from the rooftops "hey everyone! stop voting NM! I think he's a PR!" I think you're reading too much into Baezu's unvote, it definitely seems like something scum would do to avoid the attention of an L-1 vote and to gain towncred since it looks townie at the surface level but is easy to fake.

[Exilon]

I am thinking about it and I did a few skimthroughs and ISO reading in order to get something.

My starting point readlist is as follows:

Gimm Town
NM scum

hold up!! what changed between now and 421??

Day 3 happened! I've been over this (check 489, but I'll try to expand it.
First off, I wanna trust PvT read. Additionally, Gimm's answers Day 2 did satisfy me somewhat even though I had that breakout. In hindsight I overreacted a bit.

But the main reason is that NM and Gimm are definitely not scum together. A VC analysis puts NM in a terrible spot. He's only ever voted for townies, he wagoned on townies, etc. Therefore, if NM is scum, then it follows that Gimm is town.


Offtopic note: omg I cannot believe quoting a post was as easy as [ post ]. I've been copy pasting URLs for the longest time now. Thanks Sky.

[Exilon]

Skygazer comes in and doesn't change Wilky's vote, which I find interesting and suspicious. Back then the reason was compromise lynch but scum!skygazer has a lot to gain from shifting attention from NM and defending him based on meta. Also in hindsight skygazer doesn't actually produce a read on NM and just shoves sorting NM into a future occasion... which is fine but it's now day 3 and no attempt has been made on Skygazer's part to do so. (even assuming Town!NM here this is an easy and reliable setup for a mislynch later on.)

Yes, I didn't change wilky's vote. Moomn was the largest wagon and we had less than two days til deadline. I'm not sure how that's interesting or suspicious. If you go and read literally any NM game this aligns with his town meta and scum meta. I'm not going to let a player who could very easily be town get lynched when I had readon to SR moomn (as I mentioned, their read on NM was tmi, there should be no reason to actually have a TR on NM there). I mentioned that NM needed to be sorted on process of elimination. I have myself as town, gim/ex as likely town, leaving baezu and NM as likely scum. That's how I've arrived at my NM read today. Up until both PRs died, I also had a PR read on NM which is why I didn't want to see him voted off D1. He's playing almost exactly like he was in a game I modded off-site where he got lol-lynched as an

innocent child

(!!!) who hadn't outed yet. Now that both PRs are dead, NM's play here makes less sense to me and I don't need to white-knight him to save what I thought was a power-role.

I'm absolutely willing to believe there were 2 scum on the Moomn wagon especially when the other wagon was NM; this makes it more likely that NM is scum along with someone on the Moomn wagon and the only possibility would be Skygazer.

scum very much don't like voting together. if you meta dive me you'll see I especially don't like voting with scum and would gladly D1 bus if i needed to. regardless, i think it's poor play to arrive at that gamestate conclusion and say that i must be the only option just because you arbitrarily cleared gimm earlier for no apparent reason after having gimm as scum D2.

Day 2 a wagon starts to form on NM with Gimm and Baezu both voting for him and then conveniently Skygazer does not address the NM case and instead votes Froce, beginning a counterwagon that Not_Mafia follows later on the day after being prodded. Baezu then puts Froce at L-1, but removes the vote after realizing what it is (and btw this pings me as townie). Quick note post 352 is pvturist posting an interesting readlist and I think he was on to something there, where had Skygazer as scumleaning.

again, why would I address a wagon on what I thought was a PR? it'd be bad play to scream from the rooftops "hey everyone! stop voting NM! I think he's a PR!" I think you're reading too much into Baezu's unvote, it definitely seems like something scum would do to avoid the attention of an L-1 vote and to gain towncred since it looks townie at the surface level but is easy to fake.

I actually really like these points, my problem is why are you only now bringing up the whole PR-read thing that you probably should have mentioned at the beginning of Day 3 considering how essential it is to your read on NM!
Scum could easily have that excuse in the backburner and use it now.
Then again saying it at the beginning of the day could be easily faked too and would be very convenient for setting up a mislynch, so I'm willing to put it at townlean.

[Exilon]

EBWOP: not setting, pushing for*

[Baezu]

If we all agree that NM is scum then I feel like he has to be scum. Sure his partner is bussing but we can get his partner tomorrow, that’s my take at least

[Plotinus]

Not_Mafia⁶ has been prodded. This is too many prods, so we are going to look for a replacement early, but if he posts before a replacement can be found, he can stay.

[Skygazer]

VOTE: notmafia

meh dont bother

[Gimm1ck]

I am thinking about it and I did a few skimthroughs and ISO reading in order to get something.

My starting point readlist is as follows:

Gimm Town
NM scum

either Skygazer or Baezu scum

Now let's grab our trusty VCs:

D1 VC:

Official Vote Count 1.11

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Moomn

(5): Skygazer, Not_Mafia, Voted, Gimm1ck, Exilon

<-- LYNCH

Not_Mafia

(3): Baezu, Froce, PvtUrist

Froce

(1): Moomn

Not Voting

(0):

None.

Mod notes: A lynch!

D2 VC:

Official Vote Count 2.06

With 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch.

Froce

(4): Skygazer, Not_Mafia, Exilon, PvtUrist

<-- LYNCH

Skygazer

(1): Froce

Not_Mafia

(1): Gimm1ck

Not Voting

(1): Baezu

Mod notes: A lynch!

Day1 Wilky pushed for townies - Froce and Moomn, joining Voted on the wagon, and had some interactions with NM, which looking at it now, are a bit superficial. I notice they both were pinged by newb!scum tells, which... well.
Skygazer comes in and doesn't change Wilky's vote, which I find interesting and suspicious. Back then the reason was compromise lynch but scum!skygazer has a lot to gain from shifting attention from NM and defending him based on meta. Also in hindsight skygazer doesn't actually produce a read on NM and just shoves sorting NM into a future occasion... which is fine but it's now day 3 and no attempt has been made on Skygazer's part to do so. (even assuming Town!NM here this is an easy and reliable setup for a mislynch later on.)

I'm absolutely willing to believe there were 2 scum on the Moomn wagon especially when the other wagon was NM; this makes it more likely that NM is scum along with someone on the Moomn wagon and the only possibility would be Skygazer.

Day 2 a wagon starts to form on NM with Gimm and Baezu both voting for him and then conveniently Skygazer does not address the NM case and instead votes Froce, beginning a counterwagon that Not_Mafia follows later on the day after being prodded. Baezu then puts Froce at L-1, but removes the vote after realizing what it is (and btw this pings me as townie). Quick note post 352 is pvturist posting an interesting readlist and I think he was on to something there, where had Skygazer as scumleaning.

Near the end of the day, there's some discussion about skygazer being possibly scum and wagon maybe forming on her but it doesn't go anywhere, because I decide to put Froce at L-1 to force a claim. And then that disaster happened.

Baezu pinged me as town a few times. One ex. I pointed above; another is 455;
another example, and especially considering the game we're playing, is 377, where she pins Skygazer/NM as potential scum. Her reads haven't been perfect, but they've been pretty ok, which in my eyes is townie.

There's a few other things I felt or noticed that further tilt the scales on skygazer being scum over baezu.

My conclusion is as thus:
The most likely scumteams are:
Skygazer / NM - 70%
Skygazer / Baezu - 20%

What this means is that my only fear atm is that NM is in fact a mislynch - and if he is, it would have been setup by a potential scumteam of Skygazer / x.

I'd like to ask you guys, in the spirit of being as thorough as possible. What's your opinion of this?

I do agree with this analysis.

This is either a very elaborate pocket, or plain town behavior.
Occum's razor therefore states Exilon is town.
Still waiting on a NM flip before I can finalize this read.
.

[Exilon]

Why would i pockey anyone at this stage, it's lylo. If i were scum i wouldn't have syarted the day by going for my scum partner who i had been tring up to now.
And if he's a mislynch i wouldn't even have to bother pocketing anyone

[Exilon]

I would love if baezu could post some analysis as opposed to going 'meh ee can scumhunt tomorrow'

[Gimm1ck]

That's exactly why I said occum;s razor states that you are town

[Gimm1ck]

I would love if baezu could post some analysis as opposed to going 'meh ee can scumhunt tomorrow'

Agree with this

[Gimm1ck]

At this point, me and Exilon should be confirmed not partners for no qh (doesn't mean we're both town).

NM, at this stage you would crosslynch with Skygazer unless you have better ideas.

[Baezu]

I would love if baezu could post some analysis as opposed to going 'meh ee can scumhunt tomorrow'

Agree with this

Ok I will look through the thread at my next opportunity and give an updated read...this week has slammed me and I m not sure when that will be but it will be the first thing I do the next time I’m on!