Mini Normal 2071 (Game Over!)

[tris]

VC 3.03

Egix96 (2):

Ausuka 1900, Exilon 1908

Ausuka (2):

Egix96 1785, u r a person 2 1918

Not Voting:

Garmr, Gamma Emerald, u r a person 2, bob3141, skitter30 1789, Detective Pikachu 1808

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-06-02 15:00:00)

[Ausuka]

That doesn't account for the possibility that you are lynched. I know that the pool contains four. Let me find the truth tonight and you can lynch me d4. If we lynch scum Egix today that's auto.

Det, garmr, bob and gamma replacement you four at least should listen, they can't get the lynch without you.

the bottom half of my large wall is from our IC's perspective, and does take into account lynching me.

i don't understand how your wall reaches the conclusion I'm a good lynch. Like, it says I'm most likely by raw probability, but I think there are better ways of finding scum than assigning all scumteams equal value, and besides, no town composition loses anything by lynching me d4 instead of d3.

[Exilon]

in fact, i'd go so far as to say that all associations from now forward that point to svt or tvt should be viewed in this light. We should be expecting scum to try and bus their way to a win

I'm not saying otherwise at all, but this doesn't hold in thise case for sure considering I accused both Egix AND Ausuka day 2 before an hypothetical scum!me even felt a noose around his neck

And also what happened your belief in Ausuka claim?

[u r a person 2]

i don't understand how your wall reaches the conclusion I'm a good lynch. Like, it says I'm most likely by raw probability, but I think there are better ways of finding scum than assigning all scumteams equal value, and besides, no town composition loses anything by lynching me d4 instead of d3.

The crux of it is, in a world where i'm NOT conf!town (all town!pov's but mine),

yours is the highest % lynch that makes another slot conf!scum if you flip town.

[u r a person 2]

And also what happened your belief in Ausuka claim?

garmr/bob became conf!town and I had a minute to sit down and run the numbers

[Ausuka]

i don't understand how your wall reaches the conclusion I'm a good lynch. Like, it says I'm most likely by raw probability, but I think there are better ways of finding scum than assigning all scumteams equal value, and besides, no town composition loses anything by lynching me d4 instead of d3.

The crux of it is, in a world where i'm NOT conf!town (all town!pov's but mine),

yours is the highest % lynch that makes another slot conf!scum if you flip town.

But if you don't lynch me I could confirm the entire team???

[u r a person 2]

i don't understand how your wall reaches the conclusion I'm a good lynch. Like, it says I'm most likely by raw probability, but I think there are better ways of finding scum than assigning all scumteams equal value, and besides, no town composition loses anything by lynching me d4 instead of d3.

The crux of it is, in a world where i'm NOT conf!town (all town!pov's but mine),

yours is the highest % lynch that makes another slot conf!scum if you flip town.

Ausuka is a bad lynch because ya'll don't get the benefit of her check if she flips town. On the other hand, in every world where ausuka is town, skitter is scum, so this would guarantee that 5p lylo is achieved.

[u r a person 2]

But if you don't lynch me I could confirm the entire team???

(again, from all town!pov's that are not mine)
If we mislynch today, yes you can confirm the entire team, but ONLY TO YOU.

Everyone else still has to decide if you are scum or town

so it's not really confirmed.

It's the same issue as with my pov. The game is auto from my pov, but not to the slots that matter (conf!towns)

[Ausuka]

5x vt
1x on nea
1x en det
2x masons
1x ic

1x goon
1x rolecop
1x roleblocker

Is that setup (or something else along the lines of stacked scum) balanced?

Pedit: 5p lylo isn't good. In 5p lylo you have exi, urap and egix and have to find the town. Compare this to outright winning the game.
If you lynch me d4 I confscum 3 slots instead of just one. What do we gain by lynching me today instead of d4 again?

Pedit: if we mislynch today we also lose 5p lylo so...

[Exilon]

I agree with your analysis after a first readthrough.
My vote's already in the right place.

However, why are we not considering mafia roleblocker, or other similar actions?

[u r a person 2]

5x vt
1x on nea
1x en det
2x masons
1x ic

1x goon
1x rolecop
1x roleblocker

Is that setup (or something else along the lines of stacked scum) balanced?

Pedit: 5p lylo isn't good. In 5p lylo you have exi, urap and egix and have to find the town. Compare this to outright winning the game.
If you lynch me d4 I confscum 3 slots instead of just one. What do we gain by lynching me today instead of d4 again?

Pedit: if we mislynch today we also lose 5p lylo so...

It's not possible because I'm town.

It's also not possible to either egix or exilon because (from their point of view) they are town.

but yeah, sure, you can argue that. You're arguing that the team is PRECISELY egix + Exilon + Me, so good luck with that one tomorrow if you succeed today

[u r a person 2]

I agree with your analysis after a first readthrough.
My vote's already in the right place.

However, why are we not considering mafia roleblocker, or other similar actions?

I agree it is, and I'll vote egix again in a heartbeat if the conf!towns are interested

but I can't imagine they will be. I wouldn't be in their position.

[u r a person 2]

Pedit: if we mislynch today we also lose 5p lylo so...

If you are town and we mislynch you today, the lynch options in 5p are {Egix, Exilon, Urap} and only one of those will be town in that situation (again, all from conf!town pov)

So in that situation it's only a 33% chance to lose, and that's if they can't find a town read on me.

[u r a person 2]

However, why are we not considering mafia roleblocker, or other similar actions?

fmpov, it's useless to consider, because they either fall into the world where only 1 of {skitter, Ausuka} are scum, and are thus already accounted for in my wall post

OR

They occur in worlds where I am scum, and I am not scum.

[u r a person 2]

However, why are we not considering mafia roleblocker, or other similar actions?

fmpov, it's useless to consider, because they either fall into the world where only 1 of {skitter, Ausuka} are scum, and are thus already accounted for in my wall post

OR

They occur in worlds where I am scum, and I am not scum.

Frankly, this should also be true of town!you's pov, so...

[Exilon]

No, I mean, if there's roleblocker we're not getting an Ausuka result
Which is kind of a wrench in town's plans (if I understood correctly), and is "guaranteed" to happen if Ausuka is scum so basically day 4 we'll be having fun trying to decide if we're buying her claim or not, I guess

[Exilon]

I meant to put happen in "", and not guaranteed

[u r a person 2]

No, I mean, if there's roleblocker we're not getting an Ausuka result
Which is kind of a wrench in town's plans (if I understood correctly), and is "guaranteed" to happen if Ausuka is scum so basically day 4 we'll be having fun trying to decide if we're buying her claim or not, I guess

okay so from my/your!town pov

the game is already auto, and roles be damned. Refer to the top half of my wall post and just switch my name with yours and you should see that pretty easily

But from conf!town positions, the best lynch is ausuka, meaning that a roleblock, etc. on ausuka is irrelelvent because we're lynching her today anyway.
Again, see the bottom half of my wall and just switch my name and yours for analysis from you!town's pov.

[Exilon]

I'll walk through the post step by step tomorrow with pen and paper
As I said right now was a first readthrough

[u r a person 2]

@exilon and the world where ausuka AND skitter are both town, roles are also irrelevent to you and me because in that world, we are both scum together, and we both know that isn't the case.

[u r a person 2]

Frankly, scum should probably be arguing that bob + garmr + me is a possibility

because otherwise I think ya'll are fucked since you never killed the IC or hit another pr.

[u r a person 2]

Frankly, scum should probably be arguing that bob + garmr + me is a possibility

because otherwise I think ya'll are fucked since you never killed the IC or hit another pr.

well, you have a 33% chance if ausuka isn't scum, i guess, so not 100% fucked but still pretty darn fucked.

[u r a person 2]

Not shooting thet IC was a serious blunder.

[skitter30]

from my pov it's ausuka, egix, and one of {gamma/exilon}

(i don't really scumread either gamma/exilon but i scumread everyone else even less so; i think gamma is more likely but i'm not sure )

i've only kinda skimmed the last few pages but i'm *very* confident urap is town again

ok reading now

[skitter30]

Not shooting thet IC was a serious blunder.

yep