Mini Normal 2071 (Game Over!)

[u r a person 2]

Not shooting thet IC was a serious blunder.

actually this in itself is a great argument for town!skitter, tbh

[skitter30]

yep

[skitter30]

from my pov it's ausuka, egix, and one of {gamma/exilon}

well this or {bob/garmr + one of exilon/egix/gamma} but i think that's fairly significantly unlikely

[u r a person 2]

if scum!gamr had those posts ready to go, he's going to win. Plain and simple.

[skitter30]

viewtopic.php?f=123&t=76884

^^^^ this is partly where my sense of balance for mason games comes from btw, if anyone cares to read

[Exilon]

if scum!gamr had those posts ready to go, he's going to win. Plain and simple.

At least he was wrong about Sash being scum so there'll be at least that

[u r a person 2]

if scum!gamr had those posts ready to go, he's going to win. Plain and simple.

At least he was wrong about Sash being scum so there'll be at least that

LOL feels like a concession post??

[Exilon]

How so, I'm talking about the signature thingy

[u r a person 2]

How so, I'm talking about the signature thingy

oh, gotcha ;P

[skitter30]

@ garmr i actually odn' thave much to say about your vca; from your pov i can understand why i'd look scummy there and idk what scum were doing all game tbh

(i'm kinda mystified that there were no scum on the rui cw when sash/rui were tvt. although tbf that's assuming that you/bob are masons)

[u r a person 2]

@skitter can you take a look at my thought process for the world where both you and ausuka are scum?

Like, I know you'll agree with me that it wouldn't be balanced, but could you walk through why I'm right for me?

[skitter30]

and skitter from a setup perspective, I'm not sure how likely I think it is that detective is real over nea in this instance. nea is a stronger investigative, with an earlier check. the idea that the only investigative doesn't get a result til start of d3, most likely gets a worthless result, and then doesn't get another result until d5 seems really really weak. It's barely better than getting just the ic + masons. It's basically a named townie that can't confirm themselves in MOST instances, because you're unlikely to EVER hit the person who made the night kill.

so a pure setup spec argument here just isn't resonating

Let's lynch egix for his scummy play

i'm just going to point out that i *never* asked anyone to believe my claim was real

what i have done is explain what the poe looks like from pov

i also never claimed that it's a strong pr; odd night nea is significantly stronger than even night det; i will happily concede that

even-night nea is like the kinda of role the nrg throws in when they feel town needs * a little bit* more power but not too much, i think

i think the clears in this game for the most part dont' come from investigatives, but rather roles that are inherently town-confirming; even-night nea can't get a real clear till n4 at best

[skitter30]

@skitter can you take a look at my thought process for the world where both you and ausuka are scum?

Like, I know you'll agree with me that it wouldn't be balanced, but could you walk through why I'm right for me?

i'm reading in order, but i will when i get there

[u r a person 2]

IC + Masons vs 3 goons would be somewhat similar to 10p mountainous with 3 goons without the drawback of playing days with even numbers, and with the added benefit of having a higher town:scum ratio (meaning harder for scum to derail lynches, and also giving town an extra 2 lynches)

Mountainous ev rates can be found here

It looks to me like adding an innocent child at higher slots (8:3, 9:2, etc) adds little to no expected value to town's winrate

adding 2 masons at lower slot numbers (7p, 5v2) increases town win rates significantly, but given how they are expecting the games to play out and by my own intuition, the value of masons to town ev should decrease as player count increases.

So I think that means it's not balanced at ic + masons vs goons

@skitter this post

[skitter30]

I'm not even sure that the premise, that IC + odd nea + even detective vs 3 goons isn't balanced. It actually seems kind of in line with one shot FV (with multitasking to get him mislynched) + 1 shot loyal neighborizor + vig vs a goon and a follower

1 real check, 1 vig which is only somewhat pro town, and a named townie with a role that nearly ensures they get mislynched is pr

relative power doesn't feel that off between the two games

I'm also not convinced that gamr couldn't have started planning this the moment bob made his first post which was so yikes I basically gave it a too scummy to be scum read

those are different size games, with a different number of players; i think that changes how many real checks are needed; vig is also confirming because games that size don't have sk's and vigi's can only be town

ic + odd nea + even detective is not enough tpr for a 13p game i'm preeeety sure

[skitter30]

yeah the masons are real imo

[skitter30]

The thing is though that I don't really see what motivation scum!skitter would have for counterclaiming you, considering that:

- Her claimed role is not the same as yours; it's not a direct counterclaim

- It's not MyLo/LyLo yet so scum!skitter can't yet win the game by winning a claim duel with you.

Not only that, but I find it implausible for there to be that many potential clears at this stage (IC + 2 Masons + Town Neapol + VT checked by Neapol) as that's far too townsided imo. (Scum achieving two mislynches but getting borked out of a win because they missed the PRs... doesn't seem like good balance philosophy at all to me.)

a) you agreeing with me is pinging me

b) i didn't really directly cc so much as express my incredulity that her role is town. i think she probably is a nea, just a scum one

[skitter30]

Her role not counterclaiming me does NOT in any way make her townier. In fact I think that it makes her scummier! At the time of this claim the masons were under a lot of doubt - I think that it's reasonable to say that, after the lynch on me went through, skitter could go after the claims in Mylo. Although ic + even night detective is not enough town power I think that, if she claimed full detective (quite easy to justify, "I investigated cdb n1 so i said i was even-night, that way scum wouldn't kill me n3 after we lynched scum aus") and maybe got a scumbuddy to claim tpr (although we massclaimed and they went with VT, I do think it's possible that either skitter missed this or thought exilon was towny enough that he could get away with retracting a vt claim; i have actually seen town do something like that once.)

i don't understand why claiming makes me scummier

[skitter30]

The egix line is super stretchy. Egix doesn't make it to endgame because he's compromise bait. I'm pretty sure that nobody was really townreading that slot, and it seems very likely that at some point he would get lynched.

For example, Egix is a strong lynch candidate right now,

and I very strongly believe that he would still be so if it weren't for that case. What on earth are you trying to imply here? Egix is a suicidal goon and that's why he can't make it to endgame?

ngl the fact that you're aware of this makes me think you think he's a good bussing candidate for rn

[skitter30]

bob, again, i'm a she

[skitter30]

Ausuka + Gamma + Egix
Ausuka + Gamma + Exilon

also part of scum's problem here is that ausuka gave a clear on gamma

so my poe is a little bit different but i was kinda running through this in my head and i settled on the above; i don't think the game is mechanically solved from my poe? or if it is i haven't gone through all the options; my poe is also based on reads, not just mechanics

i'm going to assume that dp + bob/garmr are town
i know i'm town
if ausuka is town gamma must be also (this is the other contstraint that scum added to the mix)
(they can be svs, scum!ausuka v town!gamma, tvt)


that leaves me with:
gamma + ausuka + egix
gamma + ausuka + exilon
gamma + ausuka + urap

ausuka + egix + exilon
ausuka + urap + exilon

egix + exilon + urap

and i think that's everything from my poe?

if i remove the ones with urap i'm just left with 3 options so if i assume bob/garmr are masons ausuka's actually confscum to me

i guess i should have realized that already but i hadn't explicitly gone thru the math yet

so it's either: ausuka + gamma + {egix/exilon} or ausuka + egix + exilon
from my pov givne the givens ausuka is confscum; we have one extra mislynch so lynching through {gamma + egix + exilon} wins the game

[skitter30]

That doesn't account for the possibility that you are lynched. I know that the pool contains four. Let me find the truth tonight and you can lynch me d4. If we lynch scum Egix today that's auto.

Det, garmr, bob and gamma replacement you four at least should listen, they can't get the lynch without you.

uhhhh did gamma get replaced?

[skitter30]

IC + Masons vs 3 goons would be somewhat similar to 10p mountainous with 3 goons without the drawback of playing days with even numbers, and with the added benefit of having a higher town:scum ratio (meaning harder for scum to derail lynches, and also giving town an extra 2 lynches)

Mountainous ev rates can be found here

It looks to me like adding an innocent child at higher slots (8:3, 9:2, etc) adds little to no expected value to town's winrate

adding 2 masons at lower slot numbers (7p, 5v2) increases town win rates significantly, but given how they are expecting the games to play out and by my own intuition, the value of masons to town ev should decrease as player count increases.

So I think that means it's not balanced at ic + masons vs goons

i actually have no idea; this isn't really how i think about balance; i don't do it in terms of math or ev, it's a lot more gut-based, or comparing a given setup to things i've seen before and how i expect games to play out

like the starting assumpting that this is similar to 10p mountainous with three goons is strange to me, why would we not compare this to 10:3 mountainous instead of 7:3 mountanous; where do you even see 7:3 mountainous on that page?

but yeah i don't think that ic + masons v 3 goons is balanced

[skitter30]

5x vt
1x on nea
1x en det
2x masons
1x ic

1x goon
1x rolecop
1x roleblocker

uh are you trying to argue that both me *and* you are town?

[skitter30]

yay caught up