In post 39, Cinnamon wrote:-snip-
Forgive me if I'm missing something meta, but do you seriously have a specific read on thenavneet to make you think they're scummy?
Here's where I started to feel the "hmm cinnamon is tonally stepping lightly, which I remember doing as scum in my first game to great success." because of the "forgive me if I'm missing something" politeness.
At the time I kinda confbiased this post into "why is town dumb" but I guess on its own it's not really AI.
In post 54, Cinnamon wrote:I like the tone of his post, it reads towny to me. As for the vote, I don't have a read on it yet.
What do you (or anybody else) think?
This, again, reads like polite deflecting i.e. "maybe he's town, someone else talk now".
In fairness the only towny thing about Bob's post was its tone, so maybe this was a goodish read (and furthering conversation obviously isn't a bad thing, I just couldn't decide if it was genuine)
In post 88, Cinnamon wrote:I'm not sure how Flavor plays but to me he's trying to look town, whereas Eggs seems more apathetic than anything. Both of them aren't giving off towny vibes but Flavor seems more scummy at the moment.
VOTE: Flavor
This felt forced at the time, though in retrospect it was very early game.
In post 98, Cinnamon wrote:I said that because I think acting apathetic can happen as either alignment but generally trying to look town is something a good town wouldn't do
This pinged me.
In post 99, Cinnamon wrote:I don't like flavors behavior here either but again I haven't looked at how he previously plays
Not sure what "again" is referring to - when else did you mention how you haven't seen Flavor's previous games, cinnamon?
In post 124, Cinnamon wrote:I find it weird that a Bob/me team is coming up at all from these SEs, even if we both may individually look scummy to them. To me, I don't think anyone would as mafia agree so much with their mafia partner out of nowhere on a player that nobody else is reading as scummy at this point in the game, especially when they aren't being townread themselves (although bob was townread by some at this point).a
The reason why I caveated my read on flavor is that I am currently out and did not have time to provide a full read on him, but I wanted to post my gut reaction to their posts at the time. If teacher can vouch for this as his playstyle, then that weakens my read on him a lot.
This begins cinnamon's longheld argument that the SEs must hold a scum, because for a moment the three of us agreed on a scumteam that, like any scumteam D1, is unlikely. Just tracking this as it affects a lot of later posts.
The other points here are kinda fair, though.
In post 152, Cinnamon wrote:One thing that I would really like to hear about are reads on the SEs and their interactions so far. I really don't like that they are all thinking along the same lines, as they generally think that the mafia are between Bob, Voted, and myself and unless the team is exactly Bob/Voted they're wrong FMPOV. I'm not reading town from either Bob or Voted but I think it would be useful to see other possibilities entertained as it seems somewhat suspicious to me that three different people with experience in the game would come to very similar wrong conclusions if they are all town. What seems more likely in my eyes is that there is at least one mafia there who is doing a great job at misleading town.
I don't like this assertion. Three SEs seeing things from a similar perspective is, to me, indicative we're all town. I don't feel that as strongly as I did in early game (neither other SE has been stellar lately, though I guess I haven't worked hard itt lately either)
But cinnamon's certainty that one SE is misleading town doesn't jive with the individual reads he had on each of us as players, which I pointed out at the time. If cinnamon is scum, I think I would actually expect one of teacher/Flavor to flip scum, because I'm not sure newbscum has the confidence to get on the bad side of all the SEs if we're all town. I think it's more likely scum!cinnamon would say "this group of three has one scum" and be right about it for distancing, while in the meanwhile never actually pushing their partner's lynch seriously.
Regardless, I'm not a huge fan of this post and the following ones (see below)
In post 154, Cinnamon wrote:The more I read of Flavor's posts, the less scummy he seems. His thought process through his posts makes a lot of sense to me. At the moment, he's moved more to a weak town read for me. On the other hand, I don't see the same thing from Irrelephant. Starting with when he suggested a team of Bob/myself, there's been small inconsistencies in his logic (also see 138 where he forgot an earlier read he made on bob).
This could just be a sign of not having full attention to this game, but I see it as more of him trying to push without putting much thought behind it.
I don't like that. I wish teacher would speak more so I could get a better read from him, at the moment I don't have a read on them.
This pivot from Flavor to me feels forced. I don't see any reasoning for why Flavor is no longer a scumlean (though when Bob voted Flavor he got wagoned, so popular opinion is obviously against scumreading Flavor)
He recognizes why town!me might post what I'm posting, but instead chooses (see bolded) to believe the less likely scenario that I'm scum.
In post 158, Cinnamon wrote:I apologize on one part; when I looked through yesterday I thought I saw a townread on Bob from you, when that was somebody else.
You seemed inconsistent when you posted about pushing a team of Bob/myself when that was clearly quite unlikely, then shifting to talking about a Bob/Voted team despite having mentioned me specifically as acting scummy a number of times without specific mention of either of Bob or Voted. I thought that was weird.
I push back on this scumread, so cinnamon moves along...
In post 159, Cinnamon wrote:I don't see you as super scummy right now as my read is not that strong, which is why I didn't mention who I specifically thought would be mafia. I'm leaning towards you but I would like to see more contribution from teacher before I really push that. I think it would be really easy as mafia to act like teacher is doing now.
to teacher. This is consistent with his "one SE must be scum" assertion, but the individual scumreads on each of us are very weak, and the timing of the shifting reads seems mostly based on whether or not his vote is making him enemies
In post 167, Cinnamon wrote:My posts have been mainly focused on the SEs because I think it would be useful to discuss the SEs - there hasn't been too much discussion over their play so far and they are posting a lot. In addition, some of the other players aren't really giving off reads right now.
For instance, I am not sure why there are quite a few town reads on thenavneet right now. From what they've said, I don't see anything that I would consider really townie. If I was to townread them it would really be me sheeping other players. I'd love to hear more from him.
I do like what Menalque is saying, his ideas make sense to me. I have a town read on him so far.
navneet and menalque reads here make sense to me, but also don't show a ton of reasoning, which makes me wonder if they're TMI (indeed, knowing that navneet's replacement would later enter the thread in a way that feels informed regarding my alignment, and with a vote on cinnamon, a small part of me wonders if this could be the team...).
In post 195, Cinnamon wrote:Bob, I think what Flavor is trying to say is that he believes as town he acts towny enough that a two person wagon formed against him early like we did is generally not going to be two other town.
I can't decide why I dislike this post. I think just the way cinnamon intercedes on Flavor's behalf feels unnecessary. Like he's helping for the sake of helping? This might be confbias.
I mean yeah
In post 222, Cinnamon wrote:One thing I'm noting from Voted going through his games on this site is that his play in this game is significantly different from both previous town and scum games where he played much more actively and aggressively. It seems like, for whatever reason, he has chosen to play this game differently.
This is a post that gives me second thoughts regarding scum!cinnamon. I don't think informed mafia do meta reads very often (even though they know it'd make them look towny, it's still somewhat rare), and it'd be impressive if scum!cinnamon decided to do one as a newbie. This isn't clearing, but it certainly un-confbiases me I think.
In post 243, Cinnamon wrote:If Voted is mafia, just judging from his reads list I think his teammate would be either Uncle Bob or, more likely, an SE. I think it was extremely weird that he didn't even post his reads list on the SE players until prompted to. This also continues off of my earlier thought that there is potentially an SE mafia.
This post ignores that I was the one who prompted him to provide those reads ("one of the SEs" furthering suspicion against all of us, when really it should only direct suspicion toward teacher or Flavor imo)
But that's neither here nor there for cinnamon's alignment. I agree it was weird Voted didn't provide reads on us three till I asked.
In post 246, Cinnamon wrote:Wait a minute, I don't think that's L-1 either... we're really bad at that this game
This pair of posts is towny. I do think the vote makes sense, but more than that I think thinking something is L-1 when it's not yet L-1 is just more likely to come from town, because I think scum have incentive to be aware of where votes are.
Very clever if this is intentional on scum!cinnamon's part
In post 272, Cinnamon wrote:While I agree with flavor in that there aren't that many newbs giving off scum vibes, I would like to hear both bob and thenavneet (or their replacement) really step up and give more to the discussion right now, I think that could also be a big reason why the discussion has become so difficult.
yeah true
In post 294, Cinnamon wrote: In post 283, teacher wrote: In post 54, Cinnamon wrote:I like the tone of his post, it reads towny to me. As for the vote, I don't have a read on it yet.
What do you (or anybody else) think?
What about Bob's post here read towny to you?
I thought that the straightforwardness and blunt nature of his post was towny
yeah true
In post 339, Cinnamon wrote:-snip-
I haven't really talked about this at all yet, but you've been constantly bringing up the idea that I seem scummy. Is there anything in particular that makes you feel this way? It seems really odd that you've been focusing on me so much with statements like this that aren't talking about what I've been doing in this game that is indicative of scum.
tbh as I'm doing this case on you I think it comes mostly from undeserved paranoia. You remind me a little of me, & a little of a certain duck I can never read correctly. I also read your We Need a Fifth win with RC in the Marathon Queue, and I thought your scumplay there was smart and well-performed (confirming my suspicion that you're better than the average newbscum). I'm still paranoid of you tbh, even as I write this, but the logical part of my brain says your posts are mostly reasonable and you've been pretty pro-town overall.
In post 342, Cinnamon wrote:Menalque, could you explain why you think me townreading you in two posts is 'trying to pocket [you] super hard' whereas Irrelephant (for example) townreading you in really the same number of posts is not?
A good question, I was also wondering where menalque's suspicion of you came from, since it seemed to come out of left field
In post 344, Cinnamon wrote:I am also starting to like Eggs less, I previously had a null read on them but their last few posts have seemed somewhat scummy to me.
Disagree here, I really liked his
311 and following posts, but you did provide reasons for disliking them, so I kinda get it.
In post 345, Cinnamon wrote:Irrelephant then Menalque pushed me there for reasons that don't make a large amount of sense to me, which I find pretty suspicious.
Do you understand menalque's push on you now, cinnamon?
In post 347, Cinnamon wrote:-snip-
Another question for you Menalque - I notice that here, you state that you were comfortable with the SEs because they were all reading similarly and they had yet to call each other out. In your reads list, you also have all three SEs at the top of your town list. Has recent discussion from them done anything to change your opinion on this?
Meh this doesn't give me good vibes but otoh maybe cinnamon is just correct that one of teacher/FL is scum
In post 350, Cinnamon wrote:Lynching for information is a terrible play (in this scenario). Saying you want to lynch me then Voted (since I'll flip town), completely ignoring the possibility that literally anybody else is mafia doesn't make any sense to me and I'm not sure why you're trying to push this. I really struggle to see why you aren't really considering the possibility that
the mafia team looks something like (Irrelephant, Eggs) and Irrelephant has been doing a great job of making sure the discussion is off of Eggs
or really any other number of possibilities here. Just because the SEs are talking doesn't mean they're advancing the game in a way that helps town.
Cinnamon what made you say the bolded?
In post 354, Cinnamon wrote:-snip-
Secondly, I ignored the part about power roles because I don't think Voted would be a good check even if there was a Neapolitan/Cop in the game. There's much more influential players and knowing their alignments would be much more useful. If we are talking about ignoring parts of the other person's post, I notice you did not respond at all to what I said about how players that look to be advancing the game are not necessarily doing it to the benefit of town.
As an aside I think investigatives should prioritize checking hard-to-read players over influential players. If those two categories, overlap, great. If not, sort the nulls.
In post 364, Cinnamon wrote:
If you think it's something worth pushing, by all means you should do it.
This also gives me "I want to keep my hands clean while you get your hands dirty" vibes like earlier posts, but also, I feel like I've written this post as town, so meh
In post 366, Cinnamon wrote:Frankly, I'm starting to become a bit frustrated that flimsy arguments like this have been pushed against me for the whole game.
Irrelephant has been doing it this whole time and now other people are jumping in on it.
I can't see how you see just purely early game tone as 'playing it a bit safe' - I've been posting this whole time with all my opinions out there and I think that this particular argument should not hold water. When I unvoted I was unvoting flavor, who I was townreading. I was not unvoting irrelephant. There was no backpedal there at all, just me pointing out something I thought was peculiar from irrelephant but also recognizing that it is a weak read.
Bolded is actually a pretty good reason to townread you tbh
I've provided like no actual case on you before now so while I can see menalque's reasoning, raya feels like she's sheeping me for the sake of sheeping me without admitting to it
