Newbie 1934: Tundra (Game Over)

[Eggs]

Wait no. It's not even l-2.

I think it was 2, then cinnamon dropped off, then voted went on. So that makes me the third vote? Please double check my numbers before voting.

VOTE: pine

[Cinnamon]

Voted I've previously explained why I had this read on Irrelephant in 622 and 630, what I told you was just a recap of my opinion on him.

[Pine]

Fuck pretty sure that's hammer. I'll try to get summaries of my reads up before Ausuka locks the thread. I'm only about a third of the way through, nothing solid yet, except that one big scumvibe from Irrelephant. Pretty sure I'm being quicklynched here to silence me.

[Pine]

Menalque - Comes off as Newbie Town. Asking decent questions, giving reasonable responses. Thanking Bob in post 92 struck me as a weak Newbie!Town tell.
Voted - Strikes me as Townish, given the pressure trap on me. Has barely posted as far as I've read, so that's mostly gut.
Cinnamon - Probably Town.
Baezu - No read on Uncle Bob as far as I am (6 pages in), he hasn't posted enough and is playing close to the vest.
Eggs - Analytical approach, esp in posts 102-105 strikes me as game-solving.
teacher (SE) - Distinct lack of content in the first six pages. NAI, no read.
Irrelephant11 - As previously stated, comes off opportunistic/scummy to me. Feeling really tryhard scum. Posts 32, 33, 63, <others between, rushing> 663. Really super bad case on thenavneet post 254. Irrelephant does NOT get a pass for misunderstanding that a flaking Newbie is NAI. If he were making a "deadline lynch on lurker" case I'd understand if not condone, but that isn't the case, particularly with an active player in the slot now. Also moved his vote around a LOT until it landed somewhere vulnerable.
Flavor Leaf - Generally Townish play so far? It's been a while since I played with FL, don't recall him this chill as scum. The more I read the more his thinking matches my own, also. Post 106 in response to Eggs' 102-105 is practically word-for-word what I was thinking.

[Pine]

Will keep going until Ausuka kicks me out.

[Pine]

Through to page 12, skimming pretty shamelessly.

Most reads pretty static. Semi-stream of consciousness:

Eggs starting to feel like hardcore Town. Irrelephant's sudden move off of Cinnamon in 168, then hedge back towards him seems like overeager scum worrying that attacking obvious lynchbait will come back to bit him in the ass. Cinnamon continues to come off as Newbie-innocent, especially in light of Irrelephant data. Kinda hard to pin down though. FL's thinking continues to mirror mine, so he's probably Town. Voted is posting, but his theory is a bit flawed. But hey, it's a Newbie game, so that's forgivable (Voted, chat with me in the dead thread or postgame to talk about why your early game here wasn't effective. It's mostly because you're equating activity and posting reads with Townishness and vice versa, without analyzing quality or content. There's more nuance to it, but that's the basic gist. Post 178 is particularly problematic.) Menalque TR firming up, but still remains qualified - he's not doing any thinking that's particularly original. Teacher is finally posting, but he's playing things really close to the vest. A lot of IIOA, but not in a really objectionable way...just kind of coasting along, waiting until he gets a solid lead. Still pretty NAI, which worries me on a meta level. 236 in particular sets off quiet alarm bells, even if it is technically good advice. Whoa wait 289 finally solid content...agree with most positions except on Irrelephant. Oddly though, I think he's right that Irrelephant is a bad D1 lynch regardless of alignment. He's too good a player to just throw into the volcano D1.

[Irrelephant11]

Never lynch outside of me/Pine/Flavor Leaf/Cinnamon until scum flips

[Pine]

Real easy to list half the playerlist and insist there's scum in it.

To clarify my previous post, Teacher's production of content and good reads was Townish, though ofc it's not outside of his range as scum.

[Cinnamon]

For the record, I have thought for the past couple days that the Pine slot is the best lynch. I placed pressure on Irrelephant here to see how the Pine slot reacted in their reads, and I think that their push here on Irrelephant could quite possibly be mafia looking to try to survive a day given the current reads on their slot.

[Cinnamon]

VOTE: Pine

This is L-1 for real. Do not hammer without stating intent.

[Pine]

Except that I'm not pushing on Irrelephant. He's not the lynch today.

[Cinnamon]

I really don't buy the 'oh that's hammer', especially coming from such an experienced player

[Cinnamon]

Yea I definitely misread that part, but I still think you are the best lynch for today. Who would you lynch if you had the choice?

[teacher]

Never lynch outside of me/Pine/Flavor Leaf/Cinnamon until scum flips

Why is Baezu not on this list?

[Cinnamon]

From your reads, it seems like Irrelephant was really the only one you were scum leaning

[Baezu]

Did pine claim?

[Pine]

You are L-1. You have word of 3 other players that your slot is in troubles and should claim.

Cinnamon, I took this post at its word. I've been incredibly distracted with people trying to rush this to the finish without actually letting me catch up when we have three days to do so. Everyone makes mistakes, and it wasn't until Irrelephant's post that I even did the math and realized that it wasn't twilight.

As far as I can tell, the case one my slot is entirely a lurker lynch driven as a counter-wagon to Voted. My predecessors had ten posts between them with approximately dick for substance. In the fewer than six hours I've been around, I've produced an order of magnitude more content than they did in their entire combined runs while being attacked, pressured, and lied to about the status of my wagon. In the meantime I also mowed the lawn, made dinner for my family, had a work teleconference meeting, and STILL managed to read hundreds of posts.

Cut

Me

Some

Slack

[Pine]

Did pine claim?

No, though I did reject Voted's insistence that Raya was softing Jailkeeper.

[teacher]

Baezu my questions are still pending.

Flavor so is Menalques.

[teacher]

I dont like how under the radar Baezu's slot is being. By that I mean total lack of content, BUT ALSO lack of attention. I feel like I am the only calling out the fact that there are pending questions to her and that she hasnt posted really anything game advancing since Friday, and that Friday's was a rather scum-sided approach to the board.

I do think Pine's slot needs to be resolved before lylo, and is likely the best lynch for today. I am totally fine giving him the time to catch up and share thoughts, which I appreciate he is doing. If town, it helps to have a fully formed readset and information out. If scum, it also doesnt hurt to have that associatives out. I am also a fan of having claims out appr. 2 days before deadline so that there is time for an informed consnsus and reaction, rather than disjointed town rushing like chickens -- and this game does feel rather disjointed. Because of that and my view on the slot generally, I would encourage Pine to claim at somepoint tomorrow (real life, not D2).

Im around to jam for a bit if people want.

[teacher]

@Flavor, Id really love to talk with you if youre around.

[teacher]

Baezu replaces Uncle Bob!

should the deadline have frozen from the start of the replacement search til the replacement, as it did with magnet/raya? Asking because it adds appr 36 hrs.

No.

I also honestly find this interesting. Replacement for the Nav/Raya/Pine slot merits freezing deadline in midday. Replacement for the Bob/Baezu slot does not merit freezing deadline in mid-afternoon. Ive been pondering what to make of the difference, since it is a difference.

[teacher]

’m starting to lean only one of them have scum

I suppose Ill have to reiterate/expand Menalque's question:

Why did you have (elephant-me) as a team before? (provide reason)
How did that reason - whatever it was - interact with our essentially cojoined voting patterns at the time you made that read? (discuss impact of voting pattern and why that did/did not affect your read at time)
Why have you now "started to" move away from that?

[teacher]

Just because I scum read or town read someone now doesn’t mean I think they are scum or town.

How did this not get a reaction from anyone over the remaining 60 posts. Cinnamon, you go after Elephant for contradicting and reversing himself, but Flavor is explicitly saying his reads are manufactured. Of all of Flavors posts, I found this one the most discordant. It is a plant that will allow him to walk away from anything he has said so far by saying it was a reaction test.

[teacher]

VOTE: Irrelephant

I missed it. Why do you scumread me?

+town for those scoring at home. Scum!elephant gets too worried about the seeming defensiveness of the post and trusts another town will spot the contradiction.