open 759: house party (compleded)

[CheekyTeeky]

Oh I get the NK group thing now.

[Inbred Lannisters]

I thought her opening posts were townie. I remember you saying you thought it was scummy how she called out players for not responding to her #5, but I really don't agree with that - in fact I have no idea why you thought that was scummy. At best it isn't alignment indiciative whatsoever, but I actually overall thought the way she opened was rather fairly town as she was attempting to start a discussion. I do wish she would have engaged one of them instead of just calling three players out but meh.

Especially given the lack of any real followup, I don't see why it's difficult to imagine scum!Sky opening that way? It doesn't even feel like she was trying to start a discussion, rather looks like a "reaction test" - meh.

I also initially liked her vote on Yumeko mainly because I thought Yumekos post was awkward as well. This is honestly not a solid read but I think town is more likely to put this vote than scum is.

Without knowing Yumeko's alignment, why would this be indicative? Surely scum would be competent enough to jump on something awkward from a town slot?

Overall I feel like she is being very genuine. I don't want to read too much into the whole drunk thing, but I still feel like she is being genuine.

I'd like you to go into specifics here in terms of which posts exactly felt genuine. Was it her read on RedPanda?
I really feel like you're holding scum to a very low standard here. Who's your strongest scumread, and why?

Also the thing I pointed out last day; she put me, you, Edgar and fos in the party. Unless there is a scum between the three of you then I always think she is town. So until I'm actually more confident there is a scum in the party, I don't want to lynch her

I'll repeat this again - we operate under the assumption that there is exactly one scum in the party, 100%. You realize that if we were all-town, scum would have conceded by now, right?

-Auro

[CheekyTeeky]

Without knowing Yumeko's alignment, why would this be indicative? Surely scum would be competent enough to jump on something awkward from a town slot?

Uh. Did you just TMI on Yumeko?

[Inbred Lannisters]

Uh. Did you just TMI on Yumeko?

Lol, how does "scum would jump to push awkward town" sound like TMI?

-Auro

[Inbred Lannisters]

Duppin, who do you think is scum between Edgar and Fusco?

[Inbred Lannisters]

^

Volxen

[CheekyTeeky]

Uh. Did you just TMI on Yumeko?

Lol, how does "scum would jump to push awkward town" sound like TMI?

-Auro

You're subconsciously slipping Yumeko is town for your argument to make any sense.

If you didn't know Yumeko's alignment then it wouldn't cross your mind to push duppin for townreading sky for seeing the same things as him.

By assuming that duppin has "low expectations" in his read of sky vs yumeko, you're seeing things from an informed PoV and pushing a strange angle.

[duppin]

I thought her opening posts were townie. I remember you saying you thought it was scummy how she called out players for not responding to her #5, but I really don't agree with that - in fact I have no idea why you thought that was scummy. At best it isn't alignment indiciative whatsoever, but I actually overall thought the way she opened was rather fairly town as she was attempting to start a discussion. I do wish she would have engaged one of them instead of just calling three players out but meh.

Especially given the lack of any real followup, I don't see why it's difficult to imagine scum!Sky opening that way? It doesn't even feel like she was trying to start a discussion, rather looks like a "reaction test" - meh.[/QUOTE}

On the other hand what makes it difficult to imagine it's coming from town? Or let me rephrase that, what makes it scummy?
I think it was a town opening as I don't see the motivation for scum to ever open like that.

I also initially liked her vote on Yumeko mainly because I thought Yumekos post was awkward as well. This is honestly not a solid read but I think town is more likely to put this vote than scum is.

Without knowing Yumeko's alignment, why would this be indicative? Surely scum would be competent enough to jump on something awkward from a town slot?

Perhaps, but it mirrored my thoughts on Yumeko. I am of the impression that town would be more likely to find that post awkward than scum would be. I don't think the argument of "scum could do that as well" is really a valid point, because scum could pretty much do everything. I could apply the same logic to everythig you have done, but that does not mean I think it is likely.
I believe that what Sky has done is more likely to come from a town.

Overall I feel like she is being very genuine. I don't want to read too much into the whole drunk thing, but I still feel like she is being genuine.

I'd like you to go into specifics here in terms of which posts exactly felt genuine. Was it her read on RedPanda?
I really feel like you're holding scum to a very low standard here. Who's your strongest scumread, and why?[/QUOTE]

All of her posts. There is nothing awkward about it. It's not a specific post, its just her overall tone. She feels very genuine to me. She has responded fairly well to being called out throughout the game.

Also the thing I pointed out last day; she put me, you, Edgar and fos in the party. Unless there is a scum between the three of you then I always think she is town. So until I'm actually more confident there is a scum in the party, I don't want to lynch her

I'll repeat this again - we operate under the assumption that there is exactly one scum in the party, 100%. You realize that if we were all-town, scum would have conceded by now, right?[/QUOTE]

I actually decided to check the math and this is not correct.
Scum has only lost if there are 5 town in the party.

If we just keep mislynching town outside the party and scum keeps killing a town outside the party, it will eventually be a 3v5 with 4 players in the party and 4 players outside.
If all scum are outside the party and we mislynch the remaining town outside, town has lost.

-Auro[/quote]

[duppin]

I apologise for messing up the quotes

[duppin]

Duppin, who do you think is scum between Edgar and Fusco?

I don't think either is necessarily scum.
But I think it is a possibility. I was not a fan of how Fus read changed on me. I am okay with him finding me suspicious/less town, but his reasoning for doing so did not make sense.
I liked a couple of Edgar's post but he hasn't done much since so he has dropped off quite a bit.

In either case I'm not going to bother much with them at the moment

[Fuscosco]

Kirari Momobami has been killed! she was a

vanilla townie!

ohh wow color me fuckin shocked

[duppin]

And Inbred as for who I think is scum;

I disliked both the slots that replaced in, but now that they have replaced in I'm trying to form a better read on them. So far I like CT a bit better than theworst, but I'm still not the biggest fan of the slot.

I'm also still slightly suspicious of Yumeko. It bothers me a bit how HK gave up yesterday because if Yumeko is scum they basically made votes rather irrelevant at that point

[CheekyTeeky]

I'll repeat this again - we operate under the assumption that there is exactly one scum in the party, 100%. You realize that if we were all-town, scum would have conceded by now, right?

I also don't think you'd really believe that scum would ever concede but rather you're using this as an excuse to attack the party.

[Inbred Lannisters]

You're subconsciously slipping Yumeko is town for your argument to make any sense.

If you didn't know Yumeko's alignment then it wouldn't cross your mind to push duppin for townreading sky for seeing the same things as him.

By assuming that duppin has "low expectations" in his read of sky vs yumeko, you're seeing things from an informed PoV and pushing a strange angle.

My argument was that Duppin shouldn't townread someone

specifically

for making what seems to be a "sensible push on an awkward post", if Duppin didn't know Yumeko's alignment.

Town pushing someone for an awkward post

and

Scum pushing someone for an awkward post

are equal possibilities; there's no evidence that such a push comes more often from town than scum.

I'm not "assuming" he has low expectations in his read. I'm observing that from his reasons to townread Sky. He's townreading her for things any decently competent scum could fake. Since when did this require an informed view?

-Auro

[duppin]

Since I messed up the quotes, I'll just post this once more to make sure people understand.

Scum has only lost if there are 5 town in the party - not 4.

[CheekyTeeky]

Since when did this require an informed view?

The way you phrased it is still pinging me. I'll drop this for now as a misunderstanding.

[Fuscosco]

Ive been so busy elsewhere I forget this game. Saud should inject some interest into it.

[duppin]

Which means that the whole "scum has 100% lost if there isn't a scum in the party at the moment" is straight up wrong. It is possible all four could be town, whether that is the case remains to be seen though

[Fuscosco]

IL should be town. I dont think Volx makes good scum who can hide from me.

iirc I was SRing RedPanda, PP, Raya, and had Duppin as the possible scum in the party. But Ive been having an increasingly stale TR on Edgar Allen Foe.

iirc

[Fuscosco]

Ill just have to look once my hangover passes.

[CheekyTeeky]

Ive been so busy elsewhere I forget this game. Saud should inject some interest into it.

I replaced Saudade. Sorry to disappoint.

[duppin]

You're subconsciously slipping Yumeko is town for your argument to make any sense.

If you didn't know Yumeko's alignment then it wouldn't cross your mind to push duppin for townreading sky for seeing the same things as him.

By assuming that duppin has "low expectations" in his read of sky vs yumeko, you're seeing things from an informed PoV and pushing a strange angle.

My argument was that Duppin shouldn't townread someone

specifically

for making what seems to be a "sensible push on an awkward post", if Duppin didn't know Yumeko's alignment.

Town pushing someone for an awkward post

and

Scum pushing someone for an awkward post

are equal possibilities; there's no evidence that such a push comes more often from town than scum.

I'm not "assuming" he has low expectations in his read. I'm observing that from his reasons to townread Sky. He's townreading her for things any decently competent scum could fake. Since when did this require an informed view?

-Auro

That is probably fair. I personally believe town would be more inclined to put that vote at that time, but I am well aware scum could put it as well. I also can't rule out that the reason I think it is more likely to come from town is because I was leaning town on her already

[Inbred Lannisters]

Spoiler:

The heal mechanic was real but the phase of the game where it was relevant is now over; it probably will not be used tomorrow.

The game is in two blocks, the housepet block of Lannisters, duppin, fusco, and Edgar Allen Foe; and then the main block of everyone else. Scum cannot kill across blocks without being revealed as scum.

By the way, this is a point where if you are scum, and you do not have any scum in the 4-man block of Lann/duppin//fusco/Foe, you should concede the game since we will not be lynching in there until there is a kill within the housepet block and we won't be adding more people in.

Anyway, Hell Knight is at l-1 if you would like to have two nights to catch up and two flips to read the game with you are more than welcome to hammer.

Hey scum, if there's no scum in the house party can you just concede the game and not replace out?

Wait not allowed to comment on replacements.

Revise that to:

Hey scum if there's no scum in the house party can you just concede the game please?

Kirari, which reads of mine concern you (apart from the Fus read, which is less relevant now)?

Really only need the one to lose the game. Mostly though I think putting in three non-consensus null/leantowns was a huge oversight and that the housepet strategy was significantly better on a variety of fronts.

Given scum haven't conceded yet, you've almost certainly included one, so I think your reads being bad are at this point functionally self-evident

.

A conftown slot said this^.

@Duppin: You're right. We overlooked that the final NK can cross the line to bring it to equal numbers and secure a win, shit. Still difficult for scum to win given 50% and 75% chances of a scum hit after the 2nd and 3rd mislynches at random, and a 1Tv3W lynch pool would be a very special scenario. I'm trying to work out if there's a pseudo breaking strat for that right now.

-Auro

[duppin]

I honestly don't know what your point is. Quoting a conf town saying that the game is over for scum if we have 4 towns in the party does not mean is it correct (because it isn't).

[Inbred Lannisters]

I also don't think you'd really believe that scum would ever concede but rather you're using this as an excuse to attack the party.

Oh Duppin that was a response to this allegation^

-Auro