Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

[hitogoroshi]

Like simple math from my perspective solves that problem, so I'm uncertain exactly what your fear is Hito.

The only thing we have to protect is "not getting the named townie night vig killed before they can use their shot"

and even then town vigs are negative EV sooooooooooooooooooo

honestly most of my "worry" is that I'm feeling hot right now (which is usually the thing that gets me to requeue for mafia) and with some good town pings on the first page and the asymmetric playerlist, I'm feeling like there's a really good chance to hit mafia D1. It's arrogant sure but it is what it is. And like, if you knew up front that the D1 wagon was hitting mafia, you'd really want the town gun to be claimed already, right? otherwise we have this whole stupid song and dance where the mafioso fakeclaims gun, there's a bunch of unvotes, we wait for the real gun to claim and hope it's not one of fakegods rl friends in the process of siteflaking and then we have to dick around d1 finding the less obvious mafia. then sure if the real gun is n1 they can kill the maf, but if the maf is N1 gun also (and they probably are) they still get their free kill also. and if the real gun is any other night it really blows chunks.

maybe I haven't thought about this enough but doesn't it sound a lot easier to just get a conf townie right the heck now, and then also when someone looks like they are mafia we can just fuckin' kill em?

and actually, I wonder if killing mafia D1 effectively denies BOTH bonus kills -

FakeGod:

If there's a single mafioso alive who chose Gun, can they use both their faction kill AND their gun kill in the same night?

oh, and I guess if the above is false, then the strongest mafia configuration would probably be n1 gun on the less experienced one and n2 gun on the most, so you're most likely to get the 4 kills in 2 nights.

[implosion]

that has a lot of knock-on negatives, though. there are twice as many mafia as town guns, so even if pressure is allocated totally randomly (and I mean, the whole point of playing the game is that we're hoping to be more accurate than that), we're more likely to hit the mafia than the gun. at which point they can 100% get the gun to claim anyway if they want, and then we didn't have the conf town voice throughout the day. Also shoot testing has non-definitive negatives cause there are 8-10 roses.

It does kind of stink that the mafia learn the one person who is safe to shoot, yeah, but the only way we avoid that is by only running up town today and tbh I feel like killing mafia instead.

On computer now so can say words.

There is no reason for the gun to claim right now. That's the equivalent of asking the named townie in a mountainous setup of one named townie, 8 VTs, and 2 goons to claim. It's throwing away the only real power town has in the setup. That said, you saying this made me realize another thing: if we run someone up today and they claim gun, and the real gun sees this and knows that they're mafia, they shouldn't counterclaim. Instead they should just shoot them (on whatever night they can), because they're mafia and the mafia probably took guns (and even if they took roses, it's not guaranteed they'd be on the same night(s) as the town gun). If they live to the next day then the gun can counterclaim but there's no rush to. If we run up someone today and they claim gun, we switch the lynch target but there's no need to counterclaim.

By automatically I mean "have already won by the conventional rules of mafia" not "by the rose condition"

It is also correct that the alternate scum win condition of kill all the roses is irrelevant since there are 8 roses. Hence the gun being literally a named townie with a 1-shot vig.

[implosion]

i'm not really sure what you're trying to say, hito. Do you think there's some scenario where we wouldn't try to lynch scum today?

[implosion]

VOTE: popsofctown

[FakeGod]

FakeGod:

If there's a single mafioso alive who chose Gun, can they use both their faction kill AND their gun kill in the same night?

Single mafia with a gun can vig and nightkill during the same night.

[hitogoroshi]

i'm not really sure what you're trying to say, hito. Do you think there's some scenario where we wouldn't try to lynch scum today?

I'm saying that if we run up scum, they always have the option of claiming gun, at which point the CC is just strictly worse than leading with the claim in the first place, where we'd have the conf town from the start and no doubt. Your plan to not CC is a little more interesting, but like...it still lets a n1 mafia gun shoot when we could have stopped it, and it means we're d1 wagoning in some weird quantum hell where we have less time and don't know the alignment of the first big wagon, except for one player who is trying to hide it, but hopefully not in a way where they look suspicious for lying.

like my whole thing is that a.) starting game with a conf town is still a form of town power, b.) stringing up mafia D1 so they can't use a gun shot is really, really nice and c.) letting all claimed guns live D1 is like a foolproof way to give both mafia a chance to live to N1 and shoot the N1 shots they prob have. and in exchange for no conf town voice d1 and guaranteeing both mafia survive the first day, we're getting...a lower chance the mafia shoot the town gun n1? just feels imbalanced to me.

so it's not "there's some scenario where we wouldn't try to lynch scum today" as much as "no gun claims instantly + respecting gun claims when they come means that we have virtually no chance of killing scum D1, since it requires us to hit one, back off, and then hit the other without the flip info from the first". and that makes me feel sad

[popsofctown]

If the gun should claim at all it should definitely be delayed the rose nights probably look something like a normal distribution jammed to the left, so less value is lost if the gun claims sometime later on.

[popsofctown]

also vote VOTE: hitogoroshi because he's openwolfing

[popsofctown]

@mod: when a player dies is their rose and gun possession revealed and their used-up not-used up on the gun revealed and the night of their rose revealed?

If it is the whole, gun never claims except at L-1, gun enforced claim accuracy with texas justice, plan seems foolproof.

[popsofctown]

TEXAS JUSTICE

[popsofctown]

LIKE NORMAL JUSTICE, BUT UNNECESSARILY EXTRAJUDICIAL

[popsofctown]

Lady Lambadelta's avatar is different from what I remember and I feel like now I can't read her right or something. Hito's is different but I am pretty sure he just took a selfie and uploaded it so that is o.k.

I'm not gonna try to figure out how to read Lady Lambdadelta through my confusion until her partner if she has one is dead, I think that seems reasonable.

[popsofctown]

I keep opening this thread to bookmark it then posting something stupid then forgetting to bookmark it before I close again. Also why was this in the theme queue instead of the open queue? It's like the open queue can't have setup designs that don't suck cause setups that qualify somehow sneak into a diff queue.

[popsofctown]

Something Smart why aren't you voting me yet?

[hitogoroshi]

@mod: when a player dies is their rose and gun possession revealed and their used-up not-used up on the gun revealed and the night of their rose revealed?

If it is the whole, gun never claims except at L-1, gun enforced claim accuracy with texas justice, plan seems foolproof.

we could also enforce with Regular Ass Justice and then we have any chance of killing a mafia d1, instead of texas justice where we have zero chance. I mean texas justice is a bad result! if that's what happens then we held the vig shot just so they could shoot someone we coulda lynched, instead of using the vig shot to actually do the vig thing!

[implosion]

Explain how hito is openwolfing. I think he's solidly town so far.

Your plan to not CC is a little more interesting, but like...it still lets a n1 mafia gun shoot when we could have stopped it,

This is true. I don't think it matters that much. There are only two scum in the game, catching one in any form is enough to give us a very significant advantage. The value of a named townie goes up very significantly if they survive to the late game. Having a conftown d1 who is ostensibly guaranteed to die n1 is nearly worthless.

[xyzzy]

hitogoroshi is town but his proposed strategy of having the gun claim immediately is garbage. having them claim on whatever day they have a shot is 100% the correct call.

I feel pretty confident calling popsofctown and Alisae town as well.

LLD feels the scummiest so far.

VOTE: Lady Lambdadelta

[Lady Lambdadelta]

hitogoroshi is town but his proposed strategy of having the gun claim immediately is garbage. having them claim on whatever day they have a shot is 100% the correct call.

I feel pretty confident calling popsofctown and Alisae town as well.

LLD feels the scummiest so far.

VOTE: Lady Lambdadelta

Remind me who it was that correct Hito and suggested that "100 percent the correct call" again?

And then answer the question: What exactly about my play has been scummy so far in relation to your apparently strong town reads?

And here's the real kicker: If you answer contains anything wishy-washy along the lines of "oh it was gut" or "oh I don't have any strong scum reads" after the way in which you confidently ran down the rest of the list

I'll be on your ass today driving you into the ground.

So let's hear it b'y. Show me exactly how your mental process came around to make this post, because these reads feel fucking fabricated as shit. Let's go, one shot, one opportunity motherfucker.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Man I should just pay someone to piss me off every mafia game, it invests me instantly.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

(and if anyone wants to know why those reads feel Fabricated, I'm not giving that reasoning until after buddy posts his response, because that'd be too easy for him to find some way to worm post facto logic in there)

I wanna see him justify or die~

[Alisae]

lmao come back to the light alisae

ok you see I would, but the thing is, when you got 2 people who actively participate in the Open Discussion Forum saying guns shouldn’t claim, then guns shouldn’t claim.

[Alisae]

oh btw I think LLD randed wolf

Man are you really gonna make me play this game seriously?

I wanted to play the whole game with the Song Name thing.

Take the fun right out of it, eh?

you know ur scum when you gotta make this post.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

oh btw I think LLD randed wolf

Man are you really gonna make me play this game seriously?

I wanted to play the whole game with the Song Name thing.

Take the fun right out of it, eh?

you know ur scum when you gotta make this post.

Three things:
1) You know personally what my scum game is like
2) You have been fooled by me in every game I've been scum and you've been town
3) you're saying this shit but I don't see a vote, so are you scared or what?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

What I'm basically saying is, money where your mouth is. You seem content to take shots from the sidelines, and I ain't with it.

Like, I feel like there's some part of me that says if you were town you'd not be concerned about poking me, you'd vote me and desperately want me to die if you really felt this way.

You would be really motivated to see me dead.

But you ain't. You're playing sideline gigs so what gives.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Vote: Something_Smart

Oh and this vote wasn't random, by the by. S_S's entrance was not good. Actively choosing to decline the gambit choice (be the third vote on the Pops wagon v. start your own RVS wagon) and just post an empty phrase as he did feels like he was trying to slip into the thread, look like he's arrived but dodge having to enter crossfires early.