Newbie 1934: Tundra (Game Over)

[Pine]

Hello folks, I'm in for Raya at dear Ausuka's request. For those of you who know me, it's worth saying that given that it's a Newbie game, the only game I'm active in, and only 27 pages long, my usual I-don't-read-old-posts replacement doctrine is suspended. I'll start from the top and produce a stream-of-consciousness analysis over the course of this evening.

[Pine]

UNVOTE: jic

[Pine]

Yes, but I'm not particularly susceptible to being lobbied until I have a grasp on the situation. You're new, so I'll give you a pass on what I would ordinarily label a suspicious attempt to shape the narrative.

[Pine]

Im making my wife mad because I’ve been staring at my phone for too long on vacation but this wagon is F’ing crap and it’s pissing me off
If Raya isnt scum Cinnamon probably is for always sheeping the scumread most strongly held by either of me/Flavor

That said, holy shit this post.

The wife thing (while probably legit) is classic appeal to emotion.

Then the waffling and keeping options open for whomever is weakest, and for a really shite reason. Oh gee willikers, a newish player is sheeping experienced players? How perfectly ordinary. Your job as a Town IC/SE would be to correct/explain/teach why that's not good play, not eviscerate them for it. Will definitely be reading Irrelephant with a critical eye.

[Pine]

VOTE: Pine

L-1

Your slot soft claimed jailkeeper. Do you have samething to add?

I don't have anything to add until I'm prepared to. Putting someone who's been in the game a whopping half an hour at L-1, then trying to force a PR claim? Not a great plan. Stand down, and when I'm ready I'll share any information I think is prudent.

[Pine]

@Mod: Request at least 24 hours extension, given recent replacement. I don't need much, but two days is a pretty nuts deadline to read, analyze, prosecute a case, and teach newbies.

Preview edit: Yes, but I have no evidence that you need to know it, and I have only your word to suggest that revealing it is a good idea.

[Pine]

Continuing to engage me right now only prolongs my read-through and analysis. Chill.

[Pine]

No. And further I haven't the foggiest idea why you think Raya was softing it. I went back through her two whole posts to try and figure out what she was thinking softing something, but I'm left wondering what you're doing PR-hunting.

That left me wondering what the case on me is, and as far as I can tell, the entire case is lack of content. Boo fucking hoo, you had two people flake on you, and this slot is the low-hanging fruit. Put on some big boy pants and do some real scumhunting, like I'm trying to.

Now leave me alone for a few hours.

[Pine]

That was a pressure trap? Nice. I wouldn't have expected it from someone so new. Props.

[Pine]

Okay, can I scumhunt in peace now?

[Pine]

Fuck pretty sure that's hammer. I'll try to get summaries of my reads up before Ausuka locks the thread. I'm only about a third of the way through, nothing solid yet, except that one big scumvibe from Irrelephant. Pretty sure I'm being quicklynched here to silence me.

[Pine]

Menalque - Comes off as Newbie Town. Asking decent questions, giving reasonable responses. Thanking Bob in post 92 struck me as a weak Newbie!Town tell.
Voted - Strikes me as Townish, given the pressure trap on me. Has barely posted as far as I've read, so that's mostly gut.
Cinnamon - Probably Town.
Baezu - No read on Uncle Bob as far as I am (6 pages in), he hasn't posted enough and is playing close to the vest.
Eggs - Analytical approach, esp in posts 102-105 strikes me as game-solving.
teacher (SE) - Distinct lack of content in the first six pages. NAI, no read.
Irrelephant11 - As previously stated, comes off opportunistic/scummy to me. Feeling really tryhard scum. Posts 32, 33, 63, <others between, rushing> 663. Really super bad case on thenavneet post 254. Irrelephant does NOT get a pass for misunderstanding that a flaking Newbie is NAI. If he were making a "deadline lynch on lurker" case I'd understand if not condone, but that isn't the case, particularly with an active player in the slot now. Also moved his vote around a LOT until it landed somewhere vulnerable.
Flavor Leaf - Generally Townish play so far? It's been a while since I played with FL, don't recall him this chill as scum. The more I read the more his thinking matches my own, also. Post 106 in response to Eggs' 102-105 is practically word-for-word what I was thinking.

[Pine]

Will keep going until Ausuka kicks me out.

[Pine]

Through to page 12, skimming pretty shamelessly.

Most reads pretty static. Semi-stream of consciousness:

Eggs starting to feel like hardcore Town. Irrelephant's sudden move off of Cinnamon in 168, then hedge back towards him seems like overeager scum worrying that attacking obvious lynchbait will come back to bit him in the ass. Cinnamon continues to come off as Newbie-innocent, especially in light of Irrelephant data. Kinda hard to pin down though. FL's thinking continues to mirror mine, so he's probably Town. Voted is posting, but his theory is a bit flawed. But hey, it's a Newbie game, so that's forgivable (Voted, chat with me in the dead thread or postgame to talk about why your early game here wasn't effective. It's mostly because you're equating activity and posting reads with Townishness and vice versa, without analyzing quality or content. There's more nuance to it, but that's the basic gist. Post 178 is particularly problematic.) Menalque TR firming up, but still remains qualified - he's not doing any thinking that's particularly original. Teacher is finally posting, but he's playing things really close to the vest. A lot of IIOA, but not in a really objectionable way...just kind of coasting along, waiting until he gets a solid lead. Still pretty NAI, which worries me on a meta level. 236 in particular sets off quiet alarm bells, even if it is technically good advice. Whoa wait 289 finally solid content...agree with most positions except on Irrelephant. Oddly though, I think he's right that Irrelephant is a bad D1 lynch regardless of alignment. He's too good a player to just throw into the volcano D1.

[Pine]

Real easy to list half the playerlist and insist there's scum in it.

To clarify my previous post, Teacher's production of content and good reads was Townish, though ofc it's not outside of his range as scum.

[Pine]

Except that I'm not pushing on Irrelephant. He's not the lynch today.

[Pine]

You are L-1. You have word of 3 other players that your slot is in troubles and should claim.

Cinnamon, I took this post at its word. I've been incredibly distracted with people trying to rush this to the finish without actually letting me catch up when we have three days to do so. Everyone makes mistakes, and it wasn't until Irrelephant's post that I even did the math and realized that it wasn't twilight.

As far as I can tell, the case one my slot is entirely a lurker lynch driven as a counter-wagon to Voted. My predecessors had ten posts between them with approximately dick for substance. In the fewer than six hours I've been around, I've produced an order of magnitude more content than they did in their entire combined runs while being attacked, pressured, and lied to about the status of my wagon. In the meantime I also mowed the lawn, made dinner for my family, had a work teleconference meeting, and STILL managed to read hundreds of posts.

Cut

Me

Some

Slack

[Pine]

Did pine claim?

No, though I did reject Voted's insistence that Raya was softing Jailkeeper.

[Pine]

Irrelephant's sudden move off of Cinnamon in 168, then hedge back towards him seems like overeager scum worrying that attacking obvious lynchbait will come back to bit him in the ass.

What made Cinnamon obvious lynchbait in this game, really at any point? Theyve never been a serious wagon, so that feels like a stretch.

Since when have you known Irrelephant to be overeager as scum? Again, seems like a read you would not have made with meta knowledge.

Sorry, probably a confusion of terms. That was a hasty stream of consciousness. A better term probably would be "low-hanging fruit." Cinnamon is (no offense) a green enough player that MLing them down the line would be pretty simple. It isn't that he's done anything wrong or suspicious yet, but that it would be easy to do so at will.

[Pine]

Egg you’re going from replaced lurker newbie to replaced lurker newbie. Not saying you’re wrong, Baezu is in my unsorted list, but it’s lazy.

At work. Will post more at lunch

[Pine]

Really not liking that selective interpretation from teacher. If you cherry-pick enough, you can get data to say almost anything you want.

As a general rule, newbies flaking is NAI. The sharp variance in SE flaking that Egg found is far more interesting, but as he said there’s not a large enough sample size.

[Pine]

Of course I do. You’re still using a really small sample size, over a relatively brief period, and it contrasts with conventional wisdom. Further, your numbers are hardly conclusive. 18% vs 39% is not hugely significant. It is, at very best, a weak and qualified suggestion which will often hit Town. And again, I feel your insistence on separating did-not-pick-up-role-PM from posted-a-few-times-and-flaked skews the data.

Finally, I’m looking at a role PM which contradicts your conclusion, so fuck you

[Pine]

Okay, my lunch break is really limited, so let me cut to the chase. I’m still only about half way through the thread, but I think Baezu is the most optimal lynch. Irrelephant and I are both valuable players if Town, and I’ve got a lot more I can contribute before my (likely inevitable) mislynch.

In contrast, Baezu is unlikely to have a lot of further positive insight. Sorry, but it’s true. She’s a combination lurker/sketchy slot, and has she’s suspicion like water off a duck. Practically everyone has expressed it to some degree, but there’s no action there.

Personally, I think scum is two of {Irrelephant, teacher, Baezu}, but probably not Irrelephant/teacher. That last caveat is mostly gut.

VOTE: Baezu

This is the appropriate compromise. Survivors can litigate the rest D2

[Pine]

Claims are pretty bullshit in an Open, especially D1, especially without massclaim. I’m going to claim VT and you lynch me, or I claim a PR and you find a justification to do it anyway.

FWIW I’m a VT, because you won’t shut the fuck up about it.

[Pine]

I’m finding something confusing about your play here, Pine. Baezu isn’t happening. The wagons at this point are you or teacher.

If you are VT then it’s in your interest as a town player to do whatever you can to avoid being lynched.

But instead of putting your vote on the other existing wagon, leaving the possibility that someone might switch from your wagon to that one,

you start a vanity.

Why?

Hmm. Well, before the most recent VC, I didn't realize quite how big the teacher wagon was, so that does make a difference. He's definitely a possibility, and I'm willing to compromise on him.

However, I want to address the two bolded assertions. First, we have philosophical differences on the "job" of a VT. I am absolutely willing to take a bullet or a ML for Town IF it gains us something. I think there's some merit and progression to having me flip here, as it would establish a lot of decent associatives and motive information. In particular, it would help outline the motives of some of the people who've been eager to silence my input. In contrast, throwing away one of your most experienced and capable players for so little a gain is ludicrous. HOWEVER, that is NOT the VT's highest priority, and here's where we disagree. It's not about dying bravely for King and Country, and it isn't resisting the rope with every fiber. The first responsibility of every Townie is to SCUMHUNT. Find the scum and prosecute the offenders.

{Irrelephant, teacher, Baezu}. However, two of those are strong, experienced, and active players, and one is not. This makes her the optimal first lynch.

In a slow-moving, large game, 48-ish hours wouldn't be enough time. It is not, however, too late to pivot to a better choice.

Tell me...do you think Baezu is Town? What has she done that's been Townish at all?

[Pine]

teacher, engage me on Baezu.

Your ISO is absolutely

riddled

with suspicion of her, but you're instead laser-focused on lynching me, when your only real case seems to be that my predecessor was a lurker who made a single post that you didn't like. How does that one point outweigh the dozen or so times you expressed suspicion of Baezu?

See, this is what I find maddening. I don't see any kind of case against me, nothing to defend against or refute. It's all "but Raya was scummy!" She was a newbie who made a single substantive post. I've made more than ten times that.

[Pine]

Well, that's that. At least I have confidence in my partner. No shame in getting lynched here, this was a pretty screwed slot to begin with.

That said, the case on the Raya slot when I came in was absolute tosh. This was a lazy lurker lynch with dick-all evidence, and Town essentially got lucky with a RL and a scumbuddy who refused not to bus.

[Pine]

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[/img]

[Pine]

[Pine]

I feel good about almost weaseling out of that D1 lynch, and respect for you guys sticking to the plan. This was pretty unwinnable for scum after that.

Well played Town!

[Pine]

If anyone has thoughts on my play I'd appreciate it! Good game everyone

Trust your gut. You waffled a bit.

There’s merit to cautious skepticism of what your senses are telling you, but in the end you’ve got to step back and trust yourself.

Playing Town is a bit like those 3-D visual puzzles. Step back, let your eyes go out of focus, and see the bigger picture.

You’re off to a fine start.

[Pine]

Cinnamon - I thought you played quite a strong game. One issue with how you play, that can work to your advantage but will get you suspected, is that you are guarded. I see you thinking through posts. Editing them. Worried about how they might be perceived Not just typing and sending. I think you could towntell more just by flowing.

The second piece of advice is to be more confident about your own reads. I felt like you got pushed by others views. Take others views into account, sure. But use them to adjust your confidence levels in your own views, rather than to chance what yours are.

This was truly a fun civil game. Thank you all.

@Pine, now that its not game-relevant, do you really think posting-flakes are the same as forgot-about-site flakes?

Flaking for whatever reason is probably never really AI. You're conflating flaking and lurking; lurking is when you stick around and don't post. Flaking is when something outside the game, either loss of interest or forgetfulness or something else, disrupts your presence completely. Out of game factors = NAI. Cherry-picked and massaged statistics from a small sample set don't prove your point.

[Pine]

I would have claimed tracker, not cop if I were to claim D2. Since there were 2 goons, I wouldn't get killed anyway.

Fakeclaiming as Town is rarely a good idea, especially in an Open setup. I respect the desire to employ anti-WIFOM, but in an Open Newbie it had a lot more potential to backfire.