(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM CheekyTeeky (+98%): First of all, the flip in her claim regarding m____r struck me (and continues to strike me) as town-indicative as I don't think scum have quite the guts to do that. Aside from that, CheekyTeeky's posts have a somewhat townie!vibe, and I think I'm okay with her contributions to the game so far. Barring a counterclaim (which doesn't seem likely), this slot is guaranteed to be the town cop; it definitely explains what happened at the beginning of the game.
Likely Town
(85%-97% Confidence)
Leaning Town
(60%-84% Confidence)
Null
(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read) Pine (0%): He has like one post to this point, so it is really not possible to get read on him at the moment.
northsidegal (-3%): She has not posted enough for me to get a read.
Neutral
(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
AzoriusSenate (+40%): His read on Saudade feels like it's a genuine read coming from town.
the worst (+34%): It may be just because I'm inexperienced with the worst that I'm not scumreading him that much at this point. While like many of us, he was fooling around in the beginning in the game, later on, he seemed to switch to a more serious mode, and I think he is striking a good balance between having fun and working at solving the game.
Saudade (-37%): Most of his early posts involve him fooling around with the worst and other people. While this is fine to the extent, when this seems to be the only thing one is doing, it becomes an issue. It's worth noting that despite a strong presence very early in the game, later on (in the 150-199 post range), he seems to kinda drift out of sight. I think it's possible though that I may have been too quick to judge as he did have some good reads as of 302. His read on the worst is the main one I disagree with.
Skygazer (-39%): Her posts seemed pretty nullish until I read 199. Considering I'm already scumreading OkaPoka, 199 just feels like scum attempting to give their buddy a free townread. It's very weak, yes, but it is something. I'm starting to get scum!vibes from some of Skygazer's later posts, and an OkaPoka/Skygazer team strikes me as a good possibility.
Leaning Scum
(60%-75% Confidence) OkaPoka (-73%): A lot of his early postings (and many of his later ones as well) just feel like scum that is spending too much time on fitting on and not enough time on solving the game. He is also focusing too much on lynching within the m____rs pool which strikes me as scum trying to use mechanics to avoid being lynched. I'm pretty sure I've played with scum!Oka before, so I need to go double-check that and see if it similar to how he is playing here. Okay, so skimming over his ISO in Newbie 1874 where he was scum with UnaBombaH, and I'm sorta seeing that same emphasis on mechanics. I guess a sample size of 1 isn't very helpful in terms of establishing a meta read, but the possibility of scum!OkaPoka here is around the same, even after consulting that game.
Likely Scum
(76%-100% Confidence)
Spoiler: How to read this reads list
Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.
Confidence ratings are rough estimates (and somewhat arbitrary) and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.
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Do you have questions, ideas, or feedback for the Scummies? Please pm me!
basically now we have the option to not lynch within the miller pool but if we want to lynch millers thats ok too because in the setup liars and millers, lynching millers is only optimal in protecting cop but since cop is outed we can lynch either millers or non millers but most importantly we have to keep lynching in one pool or the other (miller or non miller) but anways this means i have to scumhunt instead of saying lol miller which is kinda lame because i signed up for this game thinking i can chill with lol miller ideas but ill be back later with some hopefully better developed reads than lol miller
In post 461, OkaPoka wrote:basically now we have the option to not lynch within the miller pool but if we want to lynch millers thats ok too because in the setup liars and millers, lynching millers is only optimal in protecting cop but since cop is outed we can lynch either millers or non millers but most importantly we have to keep lynching in one pool or the other (miller or non miller) but anways this means i have to scumhunt instead of saying lol miller which is kinda lame because i signed up for this game thinking i can chill with lol miller ideas but ill be back later with some hopefully better developed reads than lol miller
I've submitted a dayvig on this
this is Oka's most substantial post and it made me throw up
In post 463, AzoriusSenate wrote:I really dislike CheekyTeeky at the moment for doing that, seems like a role fishing attempt on d1...
What's the problem with it?
The main issue I have is I generally avoid talking about town power roles until we are hardclaiming. I find it hard to believe someone would hardclaim cop on d1 without any protection roles.
