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Post
Post #167 (isolation #6) » Tue Jun 11, 2019 3:37 pm
Postby Ircher »
also, let's face it: the cop is gonna claim miller or not miller as well because 1) they can and 2) they don't want to be outted. So one group will have five because it will include the cop.
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In post 192, Ircher wrote:@the worst no not really; still think you/Suadade is a good possibility. I might reread tomorrow.
Pedit: I'd give it say +3% towniness.
Talk me through how a saud/tw team approaches this game?
I'm really unfamiliar with Suadade in terms of game meta.
But basically, I feel y'all are a bit too out there, too focused on having a good time (not that y'all shouldn't be) and not quite as focused on finding scum. Your recent posts are sorta changing my mind, but it still remains my top read(s) atm.
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Mafia both claim miller in the hopes that 1) there aren't 6 miller claims (remember, the cop can claim either one) and two) town attempts to lynch one from each pool.
I guess that kinda rules you/Suadade out since y'all claimed early, but it's still possible for some of the people who claimed later.
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Post
Post #426 (isolation #27) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:27 am
Postby Ircher »
So this is what my reads are having reread to 199:
Spoiler: Reads
Confirmed Town
(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM
Likely Town
(85%-97% Confidence)
Leaning Town
(60%-84% Confidence)
Null
(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read) Pine (0%): He has like one post to this point, so it is really not possible to get read on him at the moment.
northsidegal (-3%): She has not posted enough for me to get a read.
Neutral
(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read) CheekyTeeky (+45%): First of all, the flip in her claim regarding miller struck me (and continues to strike me) as town-indicative as I don't think scum have quite the guts to do that. Aside from that, CheekyTeeky's posts have a somewhat townie!vibe, and I think I'm okay with her contributions to the game so far.
AzoriusSenate (+40%): His read on Saudade feels like it's a genuine read coming from town.
the worst (+34%): It may be just because I'm inexperienced with the worst that I'm not scumreading him that much at this point. While like many of us, he was fooling around in the beginning in the game, later on, he seemed to switch to a more serious mode, and I think he is striking a good balance between having fun and working at solving the game.
Skygazer (-32%): Her posts seemed pretty nullish until I read 199. Considering I'm already scumreading OkaPoka, 199 just feels like scum attempting to give their buddy a free townread. It's very weak, yes, but it is something.
Saudade (-40%): Most of his early posts involve him fooling around with the worst and other people. While this is fine to the extent, when this seems to be the only thing one is doing, it becomes an issue. It's worth noting that despite a strong presence very early in the game, later on (in the 150-199 post range), he seems to kinda drift out of sight.
OkaPoka (-55%): A lot of his early postings (and many of his later ones as well) just feel like scum that is spending too much time on fitting on and not enough time on solving the game.
Leaning Scum
(60%-75% Confidence)
Likely Scum
(76%-100% Confidence)
Spoiler: How to read this reads list
Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.
Confidence ratings are rough estimates (and somewhat arbitrary) and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.
I will maybe post my notes later if I feel like it/if asked. Some of those notes go into greater detail into the specific things I'm seeing.
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Post
Post #456 (isolation #36) » Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:04 am
Postby Ircher »
Spoiler: Reads
Confirmed Town
(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM CheekyTeeky (+98%): First of all, the flip in her claim regarding m____r struck me (and continues to strike me) as town-indicative as I don't think scum have quite the guts to do that. Aside from that, CheekyTeeky's posts have a somewhat townie!vibe, and I think I'm okay with her contributions to the game so far. Barring a counterclaim (which doesn't seem likely), this slot is guaranteed to be the town cop; it definitely explains what happened at the beginning of the game.
Likely Town
(85%-97% Confidence)
Leaning Town
(60%-84% Confidence)
Null
(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read) Pine (0%): He has like one post to this point, so it is really not possible to get read on him at the moment.
northsidegal (-3%): She has not posted enough for me to get a read.
Neutral
(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
AzoriusSenate (+40%): His read on Saudade feels like it's a genuine read coming from town.
the worst (+34%): It may be just because I'm inexperienced with the worst that I'm not scumreading him that much at this point. While like many of us, he was fooling around in the beginning in the game, later on, he seemed to switch to a more serious mode, and I think he is striking a good balance between having fun and working at solving the game.
Saudade (-37%): Most of his early posts involve him fooling around with the worst and other people. While this is fine to the extent, when this seems to be the only thing one is doing, it becomes an issue. It's worth noting that despite a strong presence very early in the game, later on (in the 150-199 post range), he seems to kinda drift out of sight. I think it's possible though that I may have been too quick to judge as he did have some good reads as of 302. His read on the worst is the main one I disagree with.
Skygazer (-39%): Her posts seemed pretty nullish until I read 199. Considering I'm already scumreading OkaPoka, 199 just feels like scum attempting to give their buddy a free townread. It's very weak, yes, but it is something. I'm starting to get scum!vibes from some of Skygazer's later posts, and an OkaPoka/Skygazer team strikes me as a good possibility.
Leaning Scum
(60%-75% Confidence) OkaPoka (-73%): A lot of his early postings (and many of his later ones as well) just feel like scum that is spending too much time on fitting on and not enough time on solving the game. He is also focusing too much on lynching within the m____rs pool which strikes me as scum trying to use mechanics to avoid being lynched. I'm pretty sure I've played with scum!Oka before, so I need to go double-check that and see if it similar to how he is playing here. Okay, so skimming over his ISO in Newbie 1874 where he was scum with UnaBombaH, and I'm sorta seeing that same emphasis on mechanics. I guess a sample size of 1 isn't very helpful in terms of establishing a meta read, but the possibility of scum!OkaPoka here is around the same, even after consulting that game.
Likely Scum
(76%-100% Confidence)
Spoiler: How to read this reads list
Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.
Confidence ratings are rough estimates (and somewhat arbitrary) and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.
Links: User Page | GTKAS
Do you have questions, ideas, or feedback for the Scummies? Please pm me!