Large Normal 221 - Endgame

[Jesus Louisus]

Errr Jesus why do you think Ofrhz is scum? I’m actually a bit perplexed by how you changed from scumreading Nero and alch to going with Ofrhz.

Please Re-read.

[rosterfoster]

I had a hood with him in restless spirits...I think I had too much faith in myself for parsing the difference between his scum and town motivations.

*shrug*

[DeasVail]

Errr Jesus why do you think Ofrhz is scum? I’m actually a bit perplexed by how you changed from scumreading Nero and alch to going with Ofrhz.

Please Re-read.

I did

[Jesus Louisus]

Errr Jesus why do you think Ofrhz is scum? I’m actually a bit perplexed by how you changed from scumreading Nero and alch to going with Ofrhz.

Please Re-read.

I did

If you read then you would know that I never said i SR Nero. I said he was 2nd on my list (behind Alch) out of 4 (one of which was myself) people to be scum only considering that wagon on Creature.

[Nero Cain]

I'm here... don't need a catch up? Like what are you on about?

Why do you not need to catch up?

[Nero Cain]

like its an 11:2 right now we can just poe it and win but I think Montosh is just scum and should be lynched sooner rather than later but no one seems to have any interest in him and half of you won't even talk about him so whatever we'll just lynch whomever till you guys wise up.

[nomnomnom]

like its an 11:2 right now we can just poe it and win but I think Montosh is just scum and should be lynched sooner rather than later but no one seems to have any interest in him and half of you won't even talk about him so whatever we'll just lynch whomever till you guys wise up.

I think the case on Montosh is a bit scattered honestly.

I think Ofh has a better chance flipping scum right now for that reason.

[Nero Cain]

what do you not like about the montosh case and what makes him town?

[rosterfoster]

Can you all just sheep Nero please

[popsofctown]

Ok VOTE: Montosh

[Alchemist21]

like its an 11:2 right now we can just poe it and win but I think Montosh is just scum and should be lynched sooner rather than later but no one seems to have any interest in him and half of you won't even talk about him so whatever we'll just lynch whomever till you guys wise up.

I’d lynch him on compromise.

[Not Known 15]

Vote Count 3.2

ofrhz(5)nomnomnom,Jesus Louisus,Montosh,LuckyOtter,Alchemist21,

Montosh(3)Nero Cain,rosterfoster,popsofctown,

LuckyOtter(2)Kirari Momobami,DeasVail,

BodhiSmith13

DeasVail(1)Vorkuta,

rosterfoster(1)Kublai Khan,

HeWhoSwims

nomnomnom(1)ofrhz,

Not Voting(0)

Jesus Louisus(0)

Vorkuta(0)

Saudade

Lil Uzi Vert

popsofctown(0)

EvilDeanius

Eyes without a face(0)

Alchemist21(0)

Nero Cain(0)

Kublai Khan(0)

Kirari Momobami(0)

No Lynch(0)

With 13 alive it is 7 to lynch.

Day 3 will end in (expired on 2019-07-11 13:10:00) or when a lynch has been achieved.

[Nero Cain]

I’d lynch him on compromise.

Weren't you pretty gung-ho about the guy being scum earlier? What made your stance soften?

[nomnomnom]

what do you not like about the montosh case and what makes him town?

I have a hard time following Montosh's case is all.

I don't actually have a strong stance on the guy but I still don't see the crux of your argument with Montosh being scum, just like I said yesterday I believe?

[DeasVail]

Errr Jesus why do you think Ofrhz is scum? I’m actually a bit perplexed by how you changed from scumreading Nero and alch to going with Ofrhz.

Please Re-read.

I did

If you read then you would know that I never said i SR Nero. I said he was 2nd on my list (behind Alch) out of 4 (one of which was myself) people to be scum only considering that wagon on Creature.

I realised I was mistaken on that part but the main point of my post is that I don’t know why you’re scumreading Ofrhz.

[DeasVail]

what do you not like about the montosh case and what makes him town?

Can you link me to the Montosh case? I don’t remember seeing it and I’m at work at the moment so it’s a bit hard for me to find rn.

[Alchemist21]

I’d lynch him on compromise.

Weren't you pretty gung-ho about the guy being scum earlier? What made your stance soften?

In all likelihood Creature may have been the only good scumread I had D1. Plus I’m a bit more interested in flipping either DeasVail or Ofrhz today.

[Nero Cain]

what do you not like about the montosh case and what makes him town?

Can you link me to the Montosh case? I don’t remember seeing it and I’m at work at the moment so it’s a bit hard for me to find rn.

I think my case on Montosh is piecemeal so maybe later I'll sit down and write it out but basically, I think he makes some sense as a Creature/red buddy. And he's been a useless lurksack since early d1. Like I said, town is so far ahead that we can just rando lynch and this will be a win but I think Mont is scum so ok.

[Kirari Momobami]

Spoiler:

I honestly wonder why scums/SK decided to kill eyes given the heavy push on him yesterday by the way. I find that honestly nonsensical.

I just don't see it.

Oh so scum shoot eyes to push sk narrative?

I kinda don't buy that but maybe

I'm not following that logic at all.

I honestly wonder why scums/SK decided to kill eyes given the heavy push on him yesterday by the way. I find that honestly nonsensical.

I just don't see it.

I said that I thought it was unlikely Eyes and RF would be scum together, so maybe they picked up on that or something.

Thinking I would suddenly start TR’ing eyes would be strange though, given the apparent existence of a SK.

So I’m still baffed

The Eyes Kill might have just been an “out-there” kill to confuse everyone and avoid getting stopped by a protective.

Yeah but isn't that just outright a bad kill

Like there are neutral kills and there is killing a guy some people thought were scums alongside true Jesus so you know.

VOTE: nomnom

I think nomnom's weird focus on how "bad of a kill" eyes was for anti-town makes me think nomnom is more likely to not be town; this feels more like someone pushing an agenda irt the kill rather than authentic analysis

doesn't guarantee she's group scum but if we really want to hit not-town today I think I prefer her over ofhrz, although given ofhrz's lack of activity I could easily be wrong on that slot too. ofhrz can flip scum even though I don't really see it personally. I'm sure I'll get accused of pushing a counter-wagon if ofhrz flips some not-town role later but whatever, rereading nom's iso this kinda jumped out at me as being very not-town

also thinking of that weirdly focused argument in conjunction with this

Pops is basically conf not mafia for the Red push, I think the flip implies a SK is likely? Or possible a traitor. But the 2 kills N1 make sense for SK.

Nero was also kind of opposed IIRC

The 2 kills on N1 could be explained by there being a backup that took over Nikos role.

This is a very specific tinfoil theory and reads to me like Jesus is setting himself up for a vig claim later

feel like Jesus and nom have both been setting themselves up to claim vig down the line on eyes which makes me think at least one of them is scum that wants to be able to sell a kill on a non-town faction later as a vig if they do hit the sk/groupscum [whatever one they are not]

of the two, HWS-slot looks worse to me overall particularly due to the way things played out yesterday. Jesus I think is either SK or town, but nom could be either SK or groupscum and her night kill spec looks more suspicious to me than Jesus's

mostly though I just think nom's insistence that the eyes kill doesn't come from scum is really scummy

While it's possible one of the two is trying to soft vig to attract a nightkill, I don't think town really does that given the actual vig may shoot them.

[nomnomnom]

I literally do not understand your whole vig claim theory.

I think the kill is weird, what's wrong about that? What kind of agenda am I pushing when I say that?

[Kirari Momobami]

The main thing is that looking at both you and Jesus today, I feel like you are both softing vig which in my mind makes it feel like you both see the unusual eyes kill to set up a vig claim

given the scum flips it's heavily implied there's an SK, but there's no evidence yet that there is a vig on top of the one already flipped

that Jesus went out of his way to find an mech explanation for the kill is... weird, but at least it makes sense, whereas your skepticism just feels more like you want the town to not think of the eyes kill as coming from scum because that confuses the town in a way that is good for you. Like, SK might have killed eyes if they thought eyes was groupscum. That's a simple explanation; likewise, groupscum could have shot eyes because they thought he was SK. I feel like it's not actually that hard to come up with relatively simple explanations for why groupscum might have killed eyes which makes your skepticism and desire to push against those explanations without really what I see as good evidence suspicious.

[nomnomnom]

your skepticism just feels more like you want the town to not think of the eyes kill as coming from scum because that confuses the town in a way that is good for you. Like, SK might have killed eyes if they thought eyes was groupscum. That's a simple explanation; likewise, groupscum could have shot eyes because they thought he was SK. I feel like it's not actually that hard to come up with relatively simple explanations for why groupscum might have killed eyes which makes your skepticism and desire to push against those explanations without really what I see as good evidence suspicious.

ngl that whole explanation is pretty bad.

I just want to get into scum's mind, it makes it easier to hunt scum. I don't see why it's so weird that *I* specifically analyze a nightkill either.

[popsofctown]

Ftr Kirari, Jesus cannot claim vig, he hardclaimed vanilla already

[Kirari Momobami]

Ftr Kirari, Jesus cannot claim vig, he hardclaimed vanilla already

Hmm, that's a pretty good point, it doesn't make me feel better about nom though

I don't see why it's so weird that *I* specifically analyze a nightkill either.

I wasn't saying it's weird to analyze a nightkill, I was saying it's weird to analyze a nightkill and insist it doesn't come from scum in a game with a flipped vig and roles that heavily imply an SK.

[nomnomnom]

Ftr Kirari, Jesus cannot claim vig, he hardclaimed vanilla already

Hmm, that's a pretty good point, it doesn't make me feel better about nom though

I don't see why it's so weird that *I* specifically analyze a nightkill either.

I wasn't saying it's weird to analyze a nightkill, I was saying it's weird to analyze a nightkill and insist it doesn't come from scum in a game with a flipped vig and roles that heavily imply an SK.

How is it weird? The guy was a common scumread and heavily pushed before RF slipped, what's wrong with finding that weird? I don't get it.