Newbie 1941 - Game over

[Spangled]

Yeah, are you saying the mafia passed on their kill, then?

They could have done that to let us WIFOM.

...But it would be a suboptimal strategy, wouldn't it?
They don't really gain anything out of it... I wouldn't think...
Since lack of a nightkill doesn't really change who we decide to lynch.
I don't think.

[RCEnigma]

Why is it more likely? Isn't the killer and the killed both 1/8 chance of hitting individually?

because the JK can be targeted

Jk would also be targeting someone they assume to be scum over someone they townread that could possibly be blocking a PR.

[RCEnigma]

Yeah, are you saying the mafia passed on their kill, then?

They could have done that to let us WIFOM.

...But it would be a suboptimal strategy, wouldn't it?
They don't really gain anything out of it... I wouldn't think...
Since lack of a nightkill doesn't really change who we decide to lynch.
I don't think.

It puts us in evens but that's about it.

[Kaniffee]

Yeah an attempted NK is either successful or it isn't successful and even then mafia can narrow down the set up by deducing that there has to be JK and/or Doctor. If mafia doesn't attempt NK at all they just get WIFOM benefits. It's possible, but not likely.

[emps]

Why is it more likely? Isn't the killer and the killed both 1/8 chance of hitting individually?

because the JK can be targeted

Jk would also be targeting someone they assume to be scum over someone they townread that could possibly be blocking a PR.

nah teacher was saying mathematically

like random chance

[HoldenGolden]

Anyways, moving from beyond the above (and teacher what play is it and is it any good?),

I want to discuss kaniffee. I feel he is somebody who is at most lean territory for the majority of the players in the game. Therefore I want to sort him out now early in the day before anything starts up.

I'll preface by explaining my own read on him. Earlier, I thought his intial read post was townish for a few reasons. For reference, I have included it in the two spoilers below:

Spoiler:

Okay time to read some people. I ended up just ISOing everyone except when I needed context. Oh and for Emps I gave up on rereading everything.
Wagonomics: Reads town to me. Overall seemed very genuine in their posts, and nothing jumped out as scummy to me.
Red Flavor: Null. Posts are from a playing style that I just don't have much context for, so it's hard for me to interpret specific things as being scummy or townie.
Emps: Town/null. Emps has posted alot, and people have made good arguments for why that may be scummy, townie, or NAI. At this point I don't have the energy to decipher 200 posts, but the more recent ones seem townie, so that's what I'm going with for now.
Holden: Town lean. Can be somewhat aggressive in interactions, but it seems to be coming from someone who's town, and is just inexperienced at going about finding scum. Also the joking tone seems pretty natural and feels town to me. Only a lean because some of his logic isn't adding up for me right now. Could be inexperience, could be slightly scummy, but otherwise nothing weird with his play so far.
cyrus: Town. See post 486 498 and 513 I guess, since I don't feel like retyping (Idk if the links just show up or I have to do something, but I'll try to do that if this doesn't work).
NaCl: Town. His posts seem town motivated, and the way he asks questions I get the vibe that he geuinely wants to know and cares about using good reasoning to find scum.
Teacher: Weak scum lean. Looking through it seems a lot of his posts are general strategy advice that are intended to appear as furthering the game without actually. I feel like strategy would be very NAI in a newbie game when there's less meta knowledge, so the focus on it seems like a distraction. There does seem to be some talk of players he suspects with some reasoning, so that's why it's only a weak lean.
Jackal: Scum lean. Vote for Cyrus seemed sheepy, especially how he just vaguely says it's because of the recent pages instead of actually writing out his own reasons.

Responses to peoples questions under spoiler

Spoiler:

Oops, my question for Kaniffee came out wrong. "Should be: Why do you think Cyrus is town? And more importantly, why don't you have a read on anyone else?"

At that point I decided to focus my time to read Cyrus because he's the one at L-1, so I figured my contributions were more important there first. Here's my reads on everyone else. I suppose if going by proper terminology some are reads and others are just leans, but it's what I got.
I will probably die for this read because if I am right and I survive, it will be bad for scum.

No I'm just town who doesn't know what to contribute to a 22 page game, and doesn't have that much time to. I like to think through what I post, and that takes time. At that point I didn't make game posts because I hadn't thought through it enough to feel confident in my opinions.
I'm confused. I'm a newbie. Jackal's SE. Were you saying that Jackal has me as a newbie partner or that I have Jackal as a fellow newbie partner?
The last line doesn't really make sense. Especially with you saying it outright, there's a certain WIFOM created. Now Scum might NK you to make me look bad because you said this. I don't think you being NKed or not will be able to have any indication of alignment for anyone.

Spoiler:

Goodnight y'all it's after midnight, so I won't be responding til I wake up at least. I'll probably vote tomorrow too. I wanna sleep on all of this before deciding.
pedit: I see y'all discussing Holden. I don't think what you've pointed out indicates anything scummy, so this doesn't change my read on him.
pedit2: I feel like there's some inbetween post I'm missing where Cyrus accuses emps of being a cop or something? I don't have time to care, so I'll parse through that tomorrow

This post stood out to be because I feel scum would be less likely to take strong stands on certain players (Wagon and to a lesser extent NaCl) at this point of the game. His only two reads that he can easily get out of is his scum lean on teacher and his town lean on me. On top of the null read, that means scum!kaff makes his life harder to push onto 5 out of the 9 players for a mislynch if need be later on. Obviously jackel/ico wasnt scum and therefore scum was not worried about a member being lynched unless cyrus slot is scum, but still a bit dangerous stance for scum to take. Not impossible though.

The reads themselves are not special. I think this among some minor points like his voting makes the best case for a town kaff right now.

Now with that said, there are several posts that have rubbed me entirely the other direction.

First most, this response to a question by NaCl raised some alarms to me. The bold is the statement I am focusing on.

Spoiler:

Almost being a key word. For one thing
I never voted Cyrus, and specifically said I was hesitant to vote him because I think he's town. The time I said I was considering actually voting Cyrus was back when before I had properly read people. Since then I've been mainly focused on my scum candidates Jackal(now Iconeum) and Teacher.

I find it funny you complained about me slowing the game by not voting, and then I actually do vote and now it's too fast for you?

To me, the tone of that does not feel like a town member worried about a person trying to shade them. Rather, it feels as if kaff is trying to throw shade onto NaCl, who according to his reads at this point, was a town read. Dont get me wrong, I dont think you should just ignore suspicious statements from a town read, but kaff tone here feels highly scummy to me given the point of view he gave on NaCl.

Secondly, I find his recent focusing on cyrus pr claim offputting. Rereading it, it feels in a way artificial in it's way of questioning teacher. Before this, kaff made a post talking about the claim in post 486. That post is a reasonable conclusion to come to for a town member.

kanniffee side note i am vt ok i am willing to flip to prove this but my bet is now 50 on teacher and 50 on jackel

This is Cyrus's most recent claim

Right, and then he pulls me out of there in his "four possibility" post, but leans towards Ico/Jackal being right and (NaCl-Holden) scum - option 4. Like how is this clearly town......

Also, this is not relevant to red's case on me, where he says I voted to get Cyrus to claim

and achieved my objective

. I dont see any hard claim from him any where near the time I voted, and shading me for Cyrus deciding to fake-soft-fake-vt at a time where there was no intent is motivated misreading of the game.

laughs i thought i teased you enough to where you knew i wasn't pocketing holdem can you put it back to l1 so i can clam and finally answer emps questions because i didnt wantg to answer queston 5 and 6 cuse i thought i would out my self but after i clame i can out my self

looking back at the original post though it really does look to me like he was just trying to follow "the rules" and everything that came after was a result of people (namely you since you did it first) assuming this was a soft pr. I don't see how this was a soft pr. You just said it was and others followed suit. The more I read through that section the more it looks opportunistic on your part.

Now compare that to this post after the red point. Similar conclusion, cyrus accidently claim pr when not trying to due to him trying to follow L1 rules, but far different interpretation on teachers motive behind it. Suddenly teacher is scum trying to force a claim for what? Info on set up? It is such shallow logic and seems very opportunistic on kaffs end to shade teacher off the back of reds suspicions. As if kaff was getting the tools needed to push a mislynch on teacher today if the opportunity arose for it (which can explain the odd double down on this logic as well when I back up how the thread felt it was a pr claim at the time)


To put it simply, I'm leaning scum on kaff right now. I want to hear others views on him and these posts as well. I feel figuring out his slot will be crucial for winning the game.

[HoldenGolden]

Also, sorry for the formatting, but you try to fucking quote and spoiler all that shit on mobile when you have fat thumbs.

Also, since I'm still trying to get a feel for cyrus replacement, VOTE: Kaniffee

[HoldenGolden]

Oh yea, and this

UNVOTE: Cyrus/Springfleg dude

With all the replacements and the nature behind this slot in particular, I'm going to redraw my vote right now before heading into ISOs land. I will say it is a werid (non AI) feeling having the person who replaced into your top scum slot also called the slot scum.

Since no one else is talking and I have time on my hands, I have to ask you what you mean by 'Springfleg dude'.
I know that's referring to me, but was it just a misreading of my name? Or does Springfleg mean something?

I generally could not be bothered at the time to memorize your name when 1/3rd of the game replaced.

....still cant tbh. In the bright side, springfleg isnt the worse way I could remembered your name

[Spangled]

Yes, let's please get this wagon going.
You've echoed some of my thoughts, but given an entirely (and probably even more valid) perspective on it.
Where I had mostly some general unease at the tone of some of their posts which really was not dispelled by their defence of themselves, you've laid out a decent case.
VOTE: Kaniffee

Pedit:
Fair enough. I think I'll use that as a username elsewhere, actually. I quite like it.

[Spangled]

Also I had some PoE in there for Kaniffee, but mostly it was just general feelings.

[HoldenGolden]

Spanish
Slangang
Sexflog
Spanked
Superman
Spermlord
Specialoli

Be glad I didnt use any of these in place of springfleg

[HoldenGolden]

Yes, let's please get this wagon going.
You've echoed some of my thoughts, but given an entirely (and probably even more valid) perspective on it.
Where I had mostly some general unease at the tone of some of their posts which really was not dispelled by their defence of themselves, you've laid out a decent case.
VOTE: Kaniffee

Pedit:
Fair enough. I think I'll use that as a username elsewhere, actually. I quite like it.

Idk, I personally am attractived to spermlord or sexflog

Also, are there any posts that I did not talk about that shows tonal issues on your end? Would like to see them and hear your reasoning.

[Spangled]

838 pings me a bit; 'since that's like the jokey 10 minute version of this game, telling jokes just might be his default playstyle' - something being jokey definitely doesn't mean that people tell jokes on it, and whether or not it is a genuine misunderstanding, I feel like it looks like scum just trying to invent activity from nothing, especially since they didn't really end it with any kind of point except 'it makes me warier'; it was a whole lot of nothing as a post.

729 is also a whole lot of nothing disguised as activity, especially since it ultimately is just 'wait for the replacements'.

668 has focus on the NK that I'm not sure town have so soon into the game. Ultimately probably NAI but it's still a bit off, I guess.

858 just seems sheepy on face value, especially as they never seem to express any

reasons

. Maybe I'm missing context but...

[post[1053[/post] is still pinging me. 'Well seeing as teacher is unlikely to be lynched' just looks opportunistic; if you think someone is scum make a case and see if that gets them lynched. Don't jump off on the nearest mislynch you can find. Switch your vote, sure, but still pay attention to your other, at least somewhat progressed, scumread.

This post is borne a little bit out of tunnelling, I know, but here are the things that I notice trawling back through their ISO (that you haven't mentioned - or maybe you have mentioned some, sorry about that then).

[Kaniffee]

838 pings me a bit; 'since that's like the jokey 10 minute version of this game, telling jokes just might be his default playstyle' - something being jokey definitely doesn't mean that people tell jokes on it, and whether or not it is a genuine misunderstanding, I feel like it looks like scum just trying to invent activity from nothing, especially since they didn't really end it with any kind of point except 'it makes me warier'; it was a whole lot of nothing as a post.

729 is also a whole lot of nothing disguised as activity, especially since it ultimately is just 'wait for the replacements'.

668 has focus on the NK that I'm not sure town have so soon into the game. Ultimately probably NAI but it's still a bit off, I guess.

858 just seems sheepy on face value, especially as they never seem to express any

reasons

. Maybe I'm missing context but...

[post[1053[/post] is still pinging me. 'Well seeing as teacher is unlikely to be lynched' just looks opportunistic; if you think someone is scum make a case and see if that gets them lynched. Don't jump off on the nearest mislynch you can find. Switch your vote, sure, but still pay attention to your other, at least somewhat progressed, scumread.

This post is borne a little bit out of tunnelling, I know, but here are the things that I notice trawling back through their ISO (that you haven't mentioned - or maybe you have mentioned some, sorry about that then).

1. At the time I was planning on looking into Holden more, but other developments in the day ended up taking priority as we neared the end. I wasn't saying this was scummy, just that we shouldn't assume Holden is town because he is willing to joke.
2. I explained my reasoning for not voting yet. I don't get what the issue is? If there's a strategic issue with me waiting to vote, then fine, but I like to wait til I'm more certain before voting, at least on Day 1.
3. I was asked to respond to that post by someone, so I responded to the part discussing the NK. I never brought up NK day 1 out of the blue, so I wouldn't say I'm focused on it.
4. I didn't realize I had to give new reasons for a previously scum lean when I vote them. The thing that pushed me to vote was that I liked Red's reasoning. I get how that might look sheepy, but that's not the intention.
5. I was the 3rd person to jump off that wagon. I stayed on longer than Red or Cyrus did, and I was still engaging with Teacher at this point. I'm still not gonna waste a vote if I can tell no one will vote with me, and I'm okay with the more popular alternative.

Anywho I still suspect Teacher for reasons I made clear during Twilight.
VOTE: Teacher

[Kaniffee]

EBWOP: previously stated scum lean

[HoldenGolden]

838 pings me a bit; 'since that's like the jokey 10 minute version of this game, telling jokes just might be his default playstyle' - something being jokey definitely doesn't mean that people tell jokes on it, and whether or not it is a genuine misunderstanding, I feel like it looks like scum just trying to invent activity from nothing, especially since they didn't really end it with any kind of point except 'it makes me warier'; it was a whole lot of nothing as a post.

729 is also a whole lot of nothing disguised as activity, especially since it ultimately is just 'wait for the replacements'.

668 has focus on the NK that I'm not sure town have so soon into the game. Ultimately probably NAI but it's still a bit off, I guess.

858 just seems sheepy on face value, especially as they never seem to express any

reasons

. Maybe I'm missing context but...

[post[1053[/post] is still pinging me. 'Well seeing as teacher is unlikely to be lynched' just looks opportunistic; if you think someone is scum make a case and see if that gets them lynched. Don't jump off on the nearest mislynch you can find. Switch your vote, sure, but still pay attention to your other, at least somewhat progressed, scumread.

This post is borne a little bit out of tunnelling, I know, but here are the things that I notice trawling back through their ISO (that you haven't mentioned - or maybe you have mentioned some, sorry about that then).

838 is a fairly decent point
729 I think is pretty NAI: most people were waiting on the replacement because jackel was scummy off the little bit he posted.

Spoiler: useless sidenote

You know I think that so far has been the most eye opening thing for me about game logic. Retrospectively, the almost universal dive onto ico followed by relatively weak counter wagons/defense for town!ico screams a townie mislynch. I know it's not always gonna be the case, but cool little learning experience.

668 is honestly werid shit that cyrus did as well with nks. No clue honestly how to read into that, so I'll save that for someone else.

858 and 1053,
What do you make of his initial reasons for scum leaning teacher and his reads post in general then?

[Kaniffee]

Also I use she/her pronouns. Kinda surprised when I realized I was the only one.

[HoldenGolden]

Ooo, speak of the devil.

DeKaff, may I ask you for your opinions on slots outside of teacher? Doesn't have to be extensive.

[Kaniffee]

My readslist hasn't really changed since the last time I posted it except that Iconeum is out.
Here it is again for your convenience.
Town: Cyrus/Spangled, Wagon
TL: Holden, Emps
Null: Red/RCE, NaCl
SL: Teacher

[teacher]

For 1051 and 1057
First of all this doesn't change the fact that Holden said nothing about soft pr in his post at the same time as you. My point is that by you saying that he was "softing it" colors how people read the post after the fact, and when looking at Cyrus's post it doesn't show softing in and of itself. Your response to it is what made it a soft pr more than anything else. You're right that spangled agreed on it being softing, but Spangled also said that your response to it "rubs me the wrong way."
I don't remember 393 being a thing, but I'll do that in my next post.

This doesn’t actually answer 1051. I quoted the specific language of Cyrus’s post that was softing and asked you to explain how that language could be interpreted as anything other than a soft.
And You’re misrepping Holdens post, which did specifically refer to Roleclaiming iirc (I’m on mobile and - not surprisingly- your post didn’t quote mine to include the link)

[teacher]

laughs i thought i teased you enough to where you knew i wasn't pocketing holdem can you put it back to l1 so i can clam and finally answer emps questions because i didnt wantg to answer queston 5 and 6 cuse i thought i would out my self but after i clame i can out my self

What's the point of this?

If your going to write out a post about

claiming a role

, then why on earth does it matter if I re-vote?

[teacher]

If you look at timestamps Holden and I thought the same thing at the same time. Also Cyrus said he was softing. Plus I don’t know how else to interpret “so I can clam” and “I would [o]ut my self” and “after I clame I can out my self” as anything other than saying they have a power role even now.

Why don’t you think that is saying they have something to hide until they claim???

Pedit: this is at kaniffee.

The quotes are from Curus’s 379 iirc.

[Kaniffee]

I was kind of in a rush trying to get those posts out before the day ended. Formatting took a backseat. I have things to do before I go to bed so I'll deal with your response fully tomorrow.

[Wagonomics]

everyone gets an extra 100 coins as day starts

Let's see who is in the lead

[Wagonomics]

emps -- I do not believe placed a bet on jackal, correct me if I'm wrong, I do think he said 'everyone town' for 10 each at one point, so let's say 210 coins
Spangled -- Cyrus put 25 on Jackal scum, I don't believe this was retracted although if Spangled thinks he shouldn't be held to Cyrus's bet that's fair. 175 coins tentatively.
Kaniffee -- I don't believe Kani ever put coins on Jackal -- 200
NaCl -- I don't believe Salt ever placed a bet -- 200
HoldenGolden -- there was that "100 coin bet" on wagonomics being dead day 1 but I would feel bad taking his coins there -- 200
teacher (SE) -- don't see a jackal bet -- 200
RCEnigma (SE) -- I believe RCE reinvested all of the previous bets into Cyrus town -- 200
Wagonomics (SE) -- I put 10 on jackal scum -- 190