Large Normal 221 - Endgame

[Jesus Louisus]

So Otter is still at L-1?

No one on that wagon believed his VT claim and is prepared to move to Of?

[Kirari Momobami]

I think he's at l-2 since I voted nom

Why does your question sound weird?

[Jesus Louisus]

I think he's at l-2 since I voted nom

Why does your question sound weird?

I don't think it sounds wierd.
We have 1.5 days left to put together a lynch and town seems divided.

Otter should have been lynched already if he were to be our lynch today since we will get no more info from him or from hia wagon.

Ofr has been the 2nd major wagon basically since Otter was the main wagon. There hasn't been very much movement there either.

I'm assuming we have 2 scum left so a stalling wagon with this many players alive isn't really AI.

[Kirari Momobami]

What're your reads rn Jesus?

[Jesus Louisus]

What're your reads rn Jesus?

If Otter is town I expect scum to be on this wagon because Otter was at L-1 for so long that I don't see scum letting that opportunity slide to hammer since they wouldn't lose any town cred for the lolhammer.

LuckyOtter(5)DeasVail,popsofctown,Vorkuta,Kirari Momobami,Nero Cain

So if we lynch Otter and if Otter does flip town then we have to go with someone on this wagon tomorrow is what I'm thinking.

[Jesus Louisus]

Also,
I am kinda intrigued by KK's plan to late lynch DeasVail. That might be a solid backup plan.

[DeasVail]

LuckyOtter -

Medium Scumread

I still think LuckyOtter is scum.

My general impression throughout the game is that Otter has played it fairly safe. There have been thoughts expressed, some questions here and there, getting involved with the game were he can. It's reasonably okay play. It's nothing flashy, but it gets the job done.

But that's the problem. It's the kind of stock-standard, reasonably okay "town" play that I would expect scum to emulate, and emulate with relative ease.

Additional concerns I have overall are:

1. Otter's approach to me

This has been a long-running concern of mine, but I do find it really concerning!

Someone mentioned that a lot of my ISO was about Otter (sorry about that), but there's very little in Otter's ISO about me. He seemingly ignores the fact that I am so vocal about suspecting him until there's a wagon on him (see 2296, at which point he states that he is more annoyed by me because of the wagon on him. He's also now keeping me as a possible scumread but there seems little effort to really try and work out if I'm scum or not. Even though I'd expect town to naturally be quite interested in working out the alignment of the player most consistently after them throughout the game. There are occasional attempts to engage with me (e.g. 1712), but this is not followed up after my response and questioning in 1757. I can't help but feel as if Otter's been worried about suspecting me (e.g. worried about being accused of OMGUS), but also worried about looking like he's trying to pander to me. And at the same time his read of me just seems to sit stagnant...

2. Mismatch Between Questioning and Reads

In looking again through Otter's ISO I'm concerned by the apparent disconnect between his questions and his reads.

The questions appear to me to be for the sake of asking questions, but don't seem to actually inform his reads all that often?

The question to me in 1712 comes up again. I explain in response to it why I don't think Jesus is necessarily town but there is just no further engagement there. Did Otter disagree with me and think I was scum because of it? Did Otter disagree but think my reasoning was town? I don't expect it to be outright obvious, but there's just very little evidence that the question asked was intended to serve any purpose.

Another example of this is 1072, where Otter has a reaction to people getting all uppity about Jesus' gun comment, but instead of actually having it seem to inform his reads he latches onto votes Red for not reading.

Those are the main examples that stand out, and as I write them it kind of feels underwhelming to me in comparison to the feeling I get from Otter's posts, but the feeling is still there all the same.

3. His response to the recent pressure

Mostly summed up in 2291.

In addition, in recent posts, there's a lot of talk about hunting groupscum vs. traitor-hunting but not actually much attempt at hunting group-scum? I guess he's voting Ofrhz but I don't feel that there's all that much behind that for Otter?

--

I plan on going through everyone left in the game and thought I'd start with reiterating thoughts on Otter because that's still what I'm pushing (I refuse to let this die!) I was hoping to get through more today, but it just ended up being a mess. I will get to Ofrhz next, hopefully now. I suspect that I will still read them as town.

[DeasVail]

Also,
I am kinda intrigued by KK's plan to late lynch DeasVail. That might be a solid backup plan.

Has your read on me changed since before (or your read on people you were scumreading) or is this more just a "this seems like a cool idea" thing?

[Jesus Louisus]

Also,
I am kinda intrigued by KK's plan to late lynch DeasVail. That might be a solid backup plan.

Has your read on me changed since before (or your read on people you were scumreading) or is this more just a "this seems like a cool idea" thing?

More like a good plan C, if the otter and ofr wagons dismantle.

[DeasVail]

Ofrhz -

Weak Townread

-

I would still say that the biggest contributor to my townread here is 1507. It's just such an awkward scumbuddy post! I think it's likely that Ofrhz as a scumbuddy would have realised that Red had been hammered. I think it's unlikely that Ofrhz as a scumbuddy would take such a hedgy stance on a buddy, after Red had already been hammered. It attracts attention and I know that if I were scum I would predict anything conspicuously pro-Red in any way to most likely attract bad attention rather than good attention.

But this is all based on likelihood. I'm not quite as 100% sold on it as I thought I was.

And reading through the rest of Ofrhz's posting, I'm not as reassured as I thought I would be.

I like their posts. I feel better about them than I do about Otter's. But there's not much apart from the post about RedFlavour that cements them as town in my mind.

And I also have a couple of concerns.

Such as their previously expressed scumread on nom (and seemingly it's still there) yet I don't sense much engagement in the debate surrounding nom's meta, for example.
And the perpetuated Me/Otter dichotomy by saying that they will meta-read both of us, whilst also undermining it due to the length of time between my last game and now.

But overall I think this post makes my overall read on Ofrhz sound worse than it actually is. I still don't think I would actually want to lynch Ofrhz. Based on previous impressions, I am pretty sure that Jesus, Vorkuta and maybe even Kirari would be more appealing lynches to me than Ofrhz. Maybe listing them as a weak townread is not really accurate? I don't know! It's getting late and I don't know how much sense I'm making anymore but that's that.

PEdit: Are you interested in doing anything to prevent the Otter and Ofr wagons from dismantling, or not really?

[DeasVail]

Quick thoughts based on quick ISOs that I'll plan to do more formally later (but maybe not before end of day!)

I've looked again through nomnomnom (including a brief glance through recent town and scum games) and I just feel overall really ehh about the argument on them. It feels more like a big distraction than anything else? And what I said in 2220 still holds for me. Even the recent pushing for me to provide reads despite me having been clear about how I wasn't going to be able to yet was just needlessly inflammatory. It made me frustrated. My immediate reaction to it was "I don't like nomnomnom!!!" But there was no point to it. It doesn't seem to have been in an effort to support a scumread on me. It was probably from town.

Kirari is probably the main person that I've allowed to sort of skate by as a townread for me but I'm worried that I've missed something by doing that. I don't have the chance to look through Kirari's ISO to a depth that would make me entirely comfortable considering a lynch there yet, but it's on my to-do-when-I-get-the-chance list.

Jesus is aaargghhh I have no idea. Would probably lynch him if I absolutely had to give up on Otter just because he's a ??? but still potentially scum for me but I'd prefer not.

And I keep forgetting that Vorkuta exists.

[popsofctown]

It's ok to forget Vorkuta exists he's probably town

[Nero Cain]

I do not believe in the existence of a Vorkuta.

[LuckyOtter]

Nevermind. Got a bust of energy and checked myself.

LuckyOtter was at L-1 for about 26 hours-ish until he checked in and claimed. ofrhz posted during that time and directly after the claim with scum-read on LuckyOtter, but no vote. So that's a point in the town column. It's circumstantial and weak, yeah, but he's not being opportunistic.

Yeah, I really don't like either major wagon. I'd rather pull a 180 and do a hardcourt press against DeasVail.

VOTE: DeasVail

Sure, with scum at such a disadvantage it's risky for scum!of not to hammer since she's next in line if my wagon falls apart.

On the other hand, there's a lot of resistance to her lynch, so she could be very happy to let the day drag on. Letting kirari vs. nom play out would make the risk of not hammering worth it.

I also think it likely that one scum is on my wagon already and the other doesn't want to hammer, so a hesitant scum!of doesn't seem impossible here.

I continue to think Jesus is town. Jesus was also hesitant around my hammer, which I think scum!Jesus only does if there's already scum on my wagon. But now, he's pushing for people on my wagon, so this doesn't seem likely.

Of those on my wagon at L-1, Kirari and DV have been pushing me the hardest, and continue to do so. I still think DV is less likely to be groupscum based on voting patterns, and even less likely to be traitor based on play. @DV this is why my read on you is stagnant, and why I'm not obsessing over you--sorry you feel ignored but I just think lynching elsewhere is more likely to hit scum!

Pops and Nero I've been townreading for a while now, although Nero really pulling for the Montosh lynch and then falling in line on my wagon fairly quietly is pretty concerning. Pops I don't think flops on and off my wagon like she did as scum.

Still no idea what Vork is doing this game but I don't think is groupscum and not interested in pushing there right now.

So I guess my order of preference, if not ofrhz, is Kirari>{DV/Nero}>Vorkuta>Pops

[LuckyOtter]

I'm really banking on nom being town right now. I don't think scum!nom so brazenly defends me today after my last game with them. Nom knows way back in this game I'm going to be awfully paranoid about them, and keeping me around is going to be a liability down the road.

I'll reassess nom later but right now I'm not feeling scum!nom

[LuckyOtter]

I still don't think scum!Nero pushes as hard against Creature as he did, though. So Kirari>>>DV>Nero>Vork>Pops

[popsofctown]

nomnomnom do you have enough merry go round gifs for me to unvote cause I like 2588?

[nomnomnom]

nomnomnom do you have enough merry go round gifs for me to unvote cause I like 2588?

I am out of gifs lol
I told you, Otter is town. I really feel Of is our only good lynch today. I don't like DeasVail as scum either.
I think I also agree that the day was dragged on for me and Kirari to sling shit at each other lol

[popsofctown]

You don't think ofhrz has been hammertested?

[nomnomnom]

You don't think ofhrz has been hammertested?

I don't remember that happening?

[popsofctown]

KK claims she has been because Otter was at L-1 and ofhrz didn't hammer and it's pretty plausible there'd be minimal cred-- for the hammer

[nomnomnom]

Oh, you mean, her not hammering LO?
Heh, yeah, it came to my mind. Do you think this should make me retract of my scumread? She's playing fairly passive and detached even there and I perhaps she wants it to remain that way. Hammering a townie casts suspicion on you. I say this assuming LO is town of course, but I really think this is town!LO.

[nomnomnom]

Plus if we actually go with setup spec and we believe there is a traitor, then the remaining groupscum(s) need to be REALLY careful about their reputation, and since I pretty much believe Of hasn't played like a traitor, well... I think perhaps this is a line she would take in this position as groupscum.

[nomnomnom]

I also agree with LO that if there's a traitor, then it would perhaps explain the non-hammer because the difference in terms of ideas and play? In my experience scumchat allows people to share ideas and how they should approach days. No scumchat would showcase a disorganized and dissonant agenda. But again that's if there is a traitor.

[popsofctown]

Can you teach me how to use scumchat more effectively when I roll scum

Do I need to start by not eliminating one player from scumchat before the mod unlocks it for night 1 by which time the other player is alienated