Mini 607 - Cop Central [GAME OVER!]


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Post Post #300 (ISO) » Tue Jun 17, 2008 12:25 pm

Post by Farkshinsoup »

Charter, I know you just replaced in, but we kind of had this N1 investigation question settled. Not sure I see the benefit of re-opening that issue at this point.

I'd like to move things to a different tack. I'd like to put some pressure on dRool. Even if you think I'm scum, and even if I ultimately get lynched, I think this would be a good thing. Anyone else think that he's the least vocal, most non-committal player in this game? If so, put another vote on him please. He could be scum, but we'll never know it because he won't say anything of consequence before the deadline.
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Post Post #301 (ISO) » Tue Jun 17, 2008 12:25 pm

Post by charter »

Aimless wrote:
charter wrote:You're also twisting my words. I said I don't agree with Aimless's plan of an absolute everyone investigate Aimless. If people were to investigate someone else, they would have to explain why. If they didn't have a good reason (such as they are scum), they would look highly suspicious tomorrow.
And now, you are twisting
my
words.

I didn't say that everyone should investigate me. I said that everyone who doesn't already have an investigation on a known alignment (through having investigated me, Jenter, or whomever today's eventual lynch is) should investigate me.
I guess I assumed it was implied that me and skruffs don't investigate you... and that people who would have a confirmed townie under their belt not to investigate you. I guess now I realize I need to spell every minute detail out in this particular game.

I disagree with the unknown sanity being useless part, because I think that I can tell between RR and TDC (or someone else) who is the scum. RR. Of course this will never apply to me, so I won't argue it further.
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Post Post #302 (ISO) » Tue Jun 17, 2008 1:13 pm

Post by Aimless »

charter wrote:I disagree with the unknown sanity being useless part, because I think that I can tell between RR and TDC (or someone else) who is the scum. RR. Of course this will never apply to me, so I won't argue it further.
Maybe you can. Maybe, you'll even be right. And maybe you're scum taking advantage of a scummy-looking townie to trick us. I know which guess I'd pick.
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Post Post #303 (ISO) » Tue Jun 17, 2008 3:16 pm

Post by Skruffs »

Aimless wrote:
charter wrote:I disagree with the unknown sanity being useless part, because I think that I can tell between RR and TDC (or someone else) who is the scum. RR. Of course this will never apply to me, so I won't argue it further.
Maybe you can. Maybe, you'll even be right. And maybe you're scum taking advantage of a scummy-looking townie to trick us. I know which guess I'd pick.
So wait - you agree that RR is acting scummy? Why are you into following his plan, then?
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Post Post #304 (ISO) » Tue Jun 17, 2008 4:31 pm

Post by Aimless »

Since I'm following
my
plan, I fail to see how you can make that conclusion.

Oh wait. I forgot that you were scum. Nevermind, I see how you can reach that conclusion perfectly.
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Post Post #305 (ISO) » Tue Jun 17, 2008 5:02 pm

Post by Korlash »

wow you guys posted a lot today... sorry about my absence, been getting ready for a trip and so i figured I would put the strategy i've been using latley into this one as well. An effort to thin out my worthless fluff posts and what not. Doesnt help that much in this game, but it helps me keep track and not get into the numbers game.

alright... where to begin... I think I'll start with the TCD post where he outlines the reasons Fark is our best subject. Most of that hinders on sanity stuff, as in who is most likely fakeclaiming sanity, and who is most likely to benifit others with their death. So all in all fark looks like the deadline person. the guy we choose to kill should no desicion be reached. I'm fine with that but I would much rathe lynch someone I think is scum.

Which brings me to RR. I keep reading all these one liners abotu how RR shoul dbe lynched, or "I would also be down with a RR lynch."... well if so many people think that way.. why the hell isn't he lynched? I haven't seen anyone, skruffs not included, putting anything ont he table about why RR hould be lynched, or what reasons we have. I see no wagon formed, and no case opened. So how about before the deadline we all try to come up with why, wheres, and hows to this. i myself have been lacking so I blame me.

I believe my reason for suspecting him has already been said. the fact he went after his investigation so hard so early. Plus the fact that other then sanity issues, I haven't seen a real reason to lynch Fark. I'll look back into him again too.

As far as Aimless chooseing our order to claim thats a great idea. I would also ask Aims to check the order we used today, after you have put yoru scum picks at the top, try to make us claim backwards from there. So the last person to claim today, should claim first after your scum picks.

Or thats my suggestion. It's how I actually thought we would be claiming tomorrow.
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Post Post #306 (ISO) » Tue Jun 17, 2008 7:10 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

While I obviously agree with Zeek and Aimless, I don't want to get into the old sanity discussion again. It's gone on long enough.
charter wrote:I disagree with the unknown sanity being useless part, because I think that I can tell between RR and TDC (or someone else) who is the scum. RR. Of course this will never apply to me, so I won't argue it further.
You're wrong. Not only about me, but generally as well. There is no way for you, assuming you're town, to be sure which one of two players are scum, and while an educated guess is nice, actually knowing things by confirming sanities is much better.
charter wrote:RR forces arguments with horrible logic in 222. Most notably this one "That opinion was minority for a reason - it's bad for the town." I don't see a townie making such a horrible argument against someone they actually think is scum. This seems more like RR has to counter, but can't find anything.
Um... why exactly is it "horrible logic"? Is it scummy to suspect someone who advocated anti town ideas?


Aimlees - since when do you find me scummy?
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Post Post #307 (ISO) » Tue Jun 17, 2008 7:44 pm

Post by ZeekLTK »

Aimless wrote: Regarding the Player A gets a guilty on B and an innocent on C problem:

Obviously, either A, B, or C is scum in this case. If one of the three is dead, it's 50/50 regarding the other two, which should be good odds for the town as long as we are not yet in LYLO.

In the case where all three are alive, the odds are not nearly so good.
Enough so that I would recommend the town treat that investigation as non-existent until one of the players alignments is known. (Well, really, I would say that we should try to avoid this situation - in fact, wanting to avoid it is the entire reason I offered myself up as a sacrificial lamb.)
This is all I was trying to say - and this can be completely avoided by not having people just investigate random people (which some people have suggested that we do...). I guess my way of saying that was too wordy or something.
charter wrote:For the FOURTH time Zeek, what problem do you have with claiming first?
For the "fourth time" where did I say I had a problem with it?
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Post Post #308 (ISO) » Tue Jun 17, 2008 8:47 pm

Post by Aimless »

Raging Rabbit wrote:Aimlees - since when do you find me scummy?
There are two answers to this question, and they aren't really related.

First, I used the term "scummy-looking townie" for a reason. Long, drawn out arguments, such as the one you had with Fark, tend to be lynch bait. I actually think it's a town tell (scum, usually, don't like to stick their necks out like that) and have been treating it accordingly; however, you've drawn fire for it, which is what I mean by "scummy-looking townie."

The second part of my answer is that, at the moment, you're fourth on my list of possible scum, behind Scruffs, dRool, and Fark. The main reason here is actually the same objection Scruffs had - the initial plan to mass-target the second-scummiest looking player and lynch him on day two. This has been beaten to death and I don't want to reopen the argument, but that's the type of plan that could lead to an easy scum win if they manage to hijack it. (I'll note that my initial support for it was conditional - I thought it a good idea only if we succeeded in lynching scum today.)

That being said, I still find Scruffs the scummiest, and think he should be today's lynch.

dRool comes next because of the way he's popped up only when he's been prodded or mentioned, and his utter lack of useful contribution so far.

Fark I'm actually wavering on a little bit. I hate to second-guess myself, but I've played with people in the past who've acted like that as town; without any sort of meta on him, I can't be sure.

Then you, for the reason mentioned.

Next on my list is Tekk, likewise for lack of contribution.

Then charter because of the immediate way he attacked the plan tonight, although I have to admit that this is more likely the result of OMGUS on my part. I disagree with him, but I can see his point; nonetheless, it isn't mafia without a healthy dose of paranoia, so he's on the list.

After that come Korlash, clammy, Zeek, and TDC. I don't have particularly good reads on any of them, but they strike me as likely town.

This would also (for the moment) be my suggested order for claiming tomorrow:

Scruffs
dRool
Fark
RR
Tekk
charter
Korlash
clammy
Zeek
TDC
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Post Post #309 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 1:04 am

Post by Farkshinsoup »

Mod: can we get a vote count? Also, could we get an updated vote count every day until the deadline?
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Post Post #310 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 1:24 am

Post by charter »

Korlash wrote:Which brings me to RR. I keep reading all these one liners abotu how RR shoul dbe lynched, or "I would also be down with a RR lynch."... well if so many people think that way.. why the hell isn't he lynched? I haven't seen anyone, skruffs not included, putting anything ont he table about why RR hould be lynched, or what reasons we have. I see no wagon formed, and no case opened. So how about before the deadline we all try to come up with why, wheres, and hows to this. i myself have been lacking so I blame me.
Even though I think RR is scum, I wouldn't vote for him to get lynched today. No one investigated him last night (unfortunately) so I'm going with his scumbuddy, Zeek.
Raging Rabbit wrote:
charter wrote:RR forces arguments with horrible logic in 222. Most notably this one "That opinion was minority for a reason - it's bad for the town." I don't see a townie making such a horrible argument against someone they actually think is scum. This seems more like RR has to counter, but can't find anything.
Um... why exactly is it "horrible logic"? Is it scummy to suspect someone who advocated anti town ideas?
I wrote the wrong post, it was post 223. Fark already pointed out your horrible logic. Minority opinions don't equal scum neccessarily. You're just saying his does without giving a reason other than saying he's scummy. You can say it all you want, doesn't make it true. Also this "If there isn't, just say you have no way to defend it (which is no shame at all, sometimes there isn't) instead of defending yourself using appeal to emotion." Plus your whole "I can't prove I'm not scum, neither can you...." I don't see a townie saying. There's no need to, everyone knows it already.
ZeekLTK wrote:
charter wrote:For the FOURTH time Zeek, what problem do you have with claiming first?
For the "fourth time" where did I say I had a problem with it?
You got really defensive when it was brought up which would suggest you don't want to do it. And you never answered before now. I don't believe your answer at all, I don't know how you got so far down on Aimless's list...

@Aimless, Why is Zeek so far down?
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Post Post #311 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 4:34 am

Post by ZeekLTK »

I was never "really defensive" - questions were asked of me (by you and TDC) so I answered them...

But yet you're still attacking me for things I either a) already explained my logic behind and/or b) never said (like this whole "opposed to claim" thing).

Basically your whole "case" on me is taking 2 things I said out of context and continually attacking me based on that.

-The "scum hunting" thing
-The "claim" thing

And even though I explained myself on both, you still won't accept my answer and keep blindly attacking me for no apparent reason. I don't even think you are reading my responses anyways based on your last post...
charter wrote:You got really defensive when it was brought up which would suggest you don't want to do it. And you never answered before now. I don't believe your answer at all, I don't know how you got so far down on Aimless's list...
"And I never answered before now" - oh really?

Uhm, you brought it up in #278, I answered in #283 and then TDC required further explanation so I FULLY explained it in #287. Then you STILL kept attacking me for it, several posts after the fact. You're making this big deal out of nothing...

The only thing I did was point out how you wanted us to investigate random people AND claim - and I already explained why that is such a bad idea.

But instead of focusing on the point of the post (how your plan was anti-town), you just focus on a stupid little detail (that isn't even relevant): where I left a space in the middle of the sentence (I thought I was helping give emphasis to the important [second] part, but apparently it only caused confusion). So if that's is how you "scum hunt" (take small insignificant parts of posts and take them out of context and attack the person based on it) then that only supports my reason as to why I want to figure out sanities as quickly as possible - because people like you will botch up the "scum hunting" aspect and attack the wrong people. No one can botch up investigation results. If you figure out you are sane, and you get a guilty, you found scum - ta da. It's easy and simple.

And also
you never explained yourself
- why do you want us to investigate random people and then claim the results (which I already explained will only benefit the scum)? That was the point I was making with my post that you keep attacking - but all you've done is, instead of answer it, take what I said out of context and try to attack me with it. Seems to me like you're just grasping at straws to attack me to try to divert attention from yourself and your horrible anti-town plans.
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Post Post #312 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 4:44 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

charter wrote:Minority opinions don't equal scum neccessarily. You're just saying his does without giving a reason other than saying he's scummy.
You're right, they don't. His minority opinion, though, was bad for the town - to avoid a mass claim day 1 is a horrible idea. I didn't repeat the reasons for that in the post you quoted because that discussion was over with already, but many people provided reasons earlier in the thread. What I was trying to say was that Fark was trying to make it look like he was attacked for holding to a minority opinion, while in reality, the attack on him had nothing to do with his opinion being minority - rather, it was because he supported a plan that was bad for the town. The fact that it was also minority has nothing to do with it.
(I feel inclined to say that Fark's more recent posts seem very pro town to me. I still find him scummy for his earlier behavior, though. I'll probably do some sort of reread when I'll have more time and rethink my vote.)

Also, charter, you seem to have very clean cut definitions to the way a townie thinks and acts, and everything outside of them "you don't see a townie saying". Well, things aren't that simple, tonwies don't all act the same. I find it unwise that you judge me based on some sort of absolete criteria.
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Post Post #313 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 4:48 am

Post by Farkshinsoup »

This is my daily dRool call. Any thoughts dRool?
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Post Post #314 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 5:06 am

Post by Skruffs »

Aimless, my bad. I thought you were in agreeance with RR that everyone should target the same person and then lynch tehm, whcih I am against. Instead, you agree with me. I was one of the first people to claim my results and helped organize a situational claiming,a nd yet I'm the most scummiest? Even though you agree with me?

You aren't making sense. You are lucky that you are the claimed retired cop because you are really setting off my scumdar.


This is why we should all independantly investigate:

SCum can not prevent the sane and insane cops from investigating them if every cop decides independantly who they want to target.
EVeryone targetting the same player results in a lost night of investigations, and a lost lynch as we 'confirm' those investigations. The amount of time spent confirming, HOPEFULLY, one or two of the players that CAN be confirmed as sane or insane, results in teh mafia getting two kills, putting the rest of us at LYLO. At that point, all one scum has to do is pretend to be confirmed and get a guilty on another player, and it's game over.

By independantly investigating, we have scum forced to explain why they targetted who they did. Scum are forced to play for themselves rather than together, as they are have ALL Act like cops and that means scum hunting. They have to claim results POSSIBLY without knowing who the person they are planning to impersonate AND on players that are still alive, forcing the players, if they are accurately claiming a sane or insane cop, to clear players that are still alive in their gambit to win the town's trust.

Confirming one or two players VS four possibly useful investigations tonight.

Let's think abou tthat. 5 Players investigated vs 8 players investigated. Hmmmmm.



Aimless:
- Your order of claiming tomorrow is based entirely on your own suspicions, yes? So all scum have to do to benefit is to buddy up to you and win your confidence. You should put some sort of pattern into it to make it less likely to be alterable by players. Alphabetically, the reversal of who claimed today, from top to bottom of the player list, etc.
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Post Post #315 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 5:09 am

Post by Skruffs »

Aimless wrote:
TDC wrote:By the way, I think Aimless should decide on a full claim order for tomorrow.
This works for me. I was planning on posting a final list of my suspicions and reasoning before the deadline anyway; I can come up with an order then as well.
For example, TDC told you to make the claim list, and coincidentally, he's at the bottom of your order to claim. You being a confirmed townie does NOT Make you more likely to be right about who is scum and who isn't. I am more than happy to claim tomorrow, FIRST, just like I was today, but I Think the rest of the order should not be based on your own hunches unless you feel you are sure enough in your hunches about the game to be responsible fi you wind up putting scum last. You know how gullible you are, I don't, so it's up to you, I would suggest using dice or random.org though. But to show I'm not trying to manipulate you, sure, feel free to put me up first.
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Post Post #316 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 5:13 am

Post by Skruffs »

ZeekLTK wrote:charter's post is right up there with Skruffs' in terms of trying to derail the town and put us in the wrong direction...

"I don't want us to investigate Aimless" - lol
Because arguing against investigating a confirmed townie versus trying to investigate scum is trying to derail the town. You're getting cocky, zeek.
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Post Post #317 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 5:24 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Skruffs wrote:The amount of time spent confirming, HOPEFULLY, one or two of the players that CAN be confirmed as sane or insane, results in teh mafia getting two kills, putting the rest of us at LYLO. At that point, all one scum has to do is pretend to be confirmed and get a guilty on another player, and it's game over.
Skruffs, again and again you keep pretending like my plan would cause us to misslynch twice and end up at LYLO, which as I explained numerous times is untrue. You're so caught up in your own arguments you haven't yet stopped to consider any of the counter-arguments or look at the facts, and are just repeating yourself endlessly in slightly different phrasings. I find it ironic you attacked me earlier for trying to scare the town, since this is exactly what you've been doing for a very long time now.
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Post Post #318 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 5:32 am

Post by Skruffs »

ZeekLTK wrote: What happens if you investigate someone you think is town on Night 1 and then investigate Aimless? You *might* get a different result, and then all of a sudden the person you thought was town is suddenly a caught scum.
This is assuming that you assumed you were sane or naive the first night and caught scum. What if you targetted two people you thought were scum on two nights versus one person you thought was scum and one person you knew to be town? Instead of having TWO nights of investigations, you only have ONE, and that investigation is only narrowed down to 50%, just like before. The whole point of simul-vestigating Aimless is on the off-chance that you did catch scum n0 with a random choice. It eliminates the chance of actually using scum hunting from the interactions on day 1 to find a DIFFERENT results night 2: After all, there's only a 3/11 chance that any of the cops who CAN get a useable results TARGETTED scum. However, if everyone uses their scum hunting to make a second choice, Night 2, they double their chances of catching scum. Everyone targetting Aimless removes that doubling chance until night 3.


Also, with the way you and RR have been pushing the simultaneous investigations of a confirmed town player to "confirm sanities", it makes me think that maybe either NONE of the scum have been investigated or that only one of them has. With 6 'duplicate' investigations, that means that potentially only 6/11 players have been investigated. Not saying that is a sure thing but it definitely makes me think that scum might feel they have caught a break by not being investigated at all.
ZeekLTK wrote: And it is a big help, because then you KNOW that the person you previously investigated IS the same alignment as Aimless AND when you investigate someone scummy on the next night you will KNOW they are scum if you get a different result.
So two players might both "know" that Fark (for example) is town. Wow! So, by your own words, targetting aimless might just 'confirm' that the person you targetted n1 IS scum, or it might confirm nothing but you can always investigate someone DIFFERENT n3 and THAT will tell you everything! Except you are wrong.

I believe that possibly one or two players may have investigated scum, and that maybe one of them is a sane or insane cop. Targetting aimless tonight might confirm them, but so would targetting any OTHER Townie.
ZeekLTK wrote: Instead, let's say you investigate someone you *think* is scummy and get a different result. You don't *know* if the person you investigated is scum, or if the person from the first night is. That's not much of a help - and it could cost the town the game - especially if you're *wrong*.
If you have two different results, and you POST Them, then eVERYONE knows that ONE Of those players is town and ONE of htem is SCUM. How do you mean "That's not much of a healp if you're WRONG"?!

It's like you are saying, "Look guys, all of these potential investigations are misleading and scary... let's lynch based on the idea of confirming as many people as we can, okay? But let's avoid actually investigating anyone, because none of you have the capability of SCUM HUNTING on your own..."

The name of the game STILL Comes down to SCUM HUNTING, NOT reliance on investigational roles. That's why there are just as many broken roles as there are useful ones; to avoid players from relying singlemindedly on what their results are.

If I get a different result tonight than I did n1, or if charter or fark of zeek or RR do, they should REPORT THAT. Because if everyone targets different people tonight then they targetted the night before, that means there will be 8 (+ 3) results + 6/7 (+2/3) results tomorrow, on DIFFERENT PEOPLE, and that means OVERLAPPING from one night to the next, VERSUS your idea which has the same number of people targetted as there were today.
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Post Post #319 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 5:33 am

Post by Skruffs »

ZeekLTK wrote:AND - this whole "let's claim in order"

combine that with "let's not investigate Aimless" and that means the scum will pretty much be able to figure out everyone's sanities on Day 2 while hardly anyone in the town will be able to figure out their own.

Yeah, great way to come into the game buddy. Could you be any MORE anti-town?
Can you explain how?
If someone claims two guilties, one on someone the scum know to be town and on Aimless, does that make them insane or paranoid?

Same with two innocents, one on an already confirmed player and on one other.

The only way that the scum will know if someone is naive versus sane is if they targetted scum n1,a nd then aimless. Are you saying that you want to avoid giving the scum the information to know that someone is naive versus sane, paranoid vs insane, which means no results should be revealed? Or are you saying that only scum will understand who the sane and insane cops are because they'll have different results day two, which is inherently more likely to happen if they target two players that are not confirmed town versus only one that is? If every sane and insane cop gets ONE town and one scum and then get NK'd, but revealed their information, the scum is still screwed.
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Post Post #320 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 5:43 am

Post by Skruffs »

Raging Rabbit wrote:
Skruffs wrote:The amount of time spent confirming, HOPEFULLY, one or two of the players that CAN be confirmed as sane or insane, results in teh mafia getting two kills, putting the rest of us at LYLO. At that point, all one scum has to do is pretend to be confirmed and get a guilty on another player, and it's game over.
Skruffs, again and again you keep pretending like my plan would cause us to misslynch twice and end up at LYLO, which as I explained numerous times is untrue. You're so caught up in your own arguments you haven't yet stopped to consider any of the counter-arguments or look at the facts, and are just repeating yourself endlessly in slightly different phrasings. I find it ironic you attacked me earlier for trying to scare the town, since this is exactly what you've been doing for a very long time now.
Okay, meaningless appeals to emotion aside, you are insinuating that players should not use their investigative roles to catch scum, and that the lynches should be based solely on the idea that the investigative roles already HAVE caught scum. You are saying that I am trying to "Scare the town".

BOOGEDY BOOGEDY BOOGEDY TOWN!!!

Image

YES IT IS ME!!! I AM TRYING TO SCARE YOU! WITH THE IDEA OF THINKING FOR YOURSELVES!!!!

Fortunately you have Raging Rabbit and ZeekTLK, your "Shepherds" , to GUIDE y ou through this Horrible, HORRIBLE situation! You don't have to worry about finding scum! You don't have to worry about even who to investigate! Zeek and Raging RAbbit will make sure that NONE of you have to make ANY decisions for YOURSELVES, because they already have who you should vote for and investigate mapped out for the next two days!

Are you afraid of investigating scuma nd having to figure out your sanity,
ON YOUR OWN???
Don't cry little ones!! We can all target a confirmed townie, Aimless! Aimless won't hurt you, not like those SCARY MAFIAS will!


Little BobbySue: "My mommy told me that I choose to investigate someone OTHER than Aimless, that the BOOGEYMAN will come and give me a HYSTERECTOMY!"

Little Jimmy: "My cousin Joe thought that this ONE guy was scum, so HE investigated him, and he had TWO results and one was different than the other!!! HE couldn't figure out which one was right so he wound up shooting himself IN THE HEAD. I hope *I* never have to confirm my sanity independantly!"

Don't worry kids, you won't! Why, maybe if Raging Rabbit gets his way, we can ALL target Aimless tonight, and then we'll NEVER REVEAL OUR RESULTS to ANYONE. You won't even have to check your inbox to see what your result was, because Raging RAbbit thinks that would be BAD FOR THE TOWN. Information is DANGEROUS!!!



RagingRabbit
:
All scum have to do is play along with your orchestrated results, while picking off any players that they think is likely to sane or insane, and then at lynch or lose claim a guilty on an innocent player that they 'know' to be naive or paranoid. You want to CONFIRM Sanities and THEN have those 'confirmed' players try to hunt scum, which is the exact opposite of efficiency and usefullness. Confirmed cops are going to be HUGE targets. We want the cops to have a good investigation BEFORE they are confirmed. We want EVERYONE to be investigated at least once to widen the possibility that the useful cops will catch scum. IT is not "Scary" to look at what happens in this game ONE DAY past your 'plan' ends and see that the town will be crippled by attempting to confirm sanities before harvesting investigations.
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Post Post #321 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 5:44 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Zeek, I really wish you won't respond to Skruffs and get into another drawn out argumnet. I think he's intentionally missing the point, and would rather refrain from drawing the focus away from actual scumhunting yet again.
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Post Post #322 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 5:49 am

Post by charter »

Skruffs wrote:Also, with the way you and RR have been pushing the simultaneous investigations of a confirmed town player to "confirm sanities", it makes me think that maybe either NONE of the scum have been investigated or that only one of them has. With 6 'duplicate' investigations, that means that potentially only 6/11 players have been investigated. Not saying that is a sure thing but it definitely makes me think that scum might feel they have caught a break by not being investigated at all.
Did anyone else even think of this? I hadn't until skruffs posted it. If only one or two scum was investigated night one. This is the major flaw in the everyone investigate aimless (that doesn't already have a confirmed result under their belt by tonight, since I have to spell these trivialities out...) plan. If no scum were investigated by a USEFUL cop, then tomorrow we will have ABSOLUTELY no concrete evidence and will in all likelyhood follow the scum directing us wrong. I will run the numbers on the chance of this happening when I get back to work (20 or so minutes) and post it. Zeek, you of all people should not want to use a plan that gives us no concrete evidence. I'll also address other posts to me when I get back, but I felt this was important to reiterate.
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Post Post #323 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 5:55 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Skruffs wrote:...you are insinuating... that the lynches should be based solely on the idea that the investigative roles already HAVE caught scum.
I (post 239) wrote:We absolutely should'nt let this game turn into a logic puzzle and ignore regular scumhunting, in my opinion.
I (post 245) wrote: I really think you need to understand that sanity information won't automatically win us the game on it's own.)
Right...

Well, I for one am sick of Skruffs blatantly twisting facts and putting words in people's mouths.

Unvote, vote Skruffs.
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Post Post #324 (ISO) » Wed Jun 18, 2008 6:40 am

Post by charter »

Ok, so after figuring out what the chances of the useful cops not investigating scum, I deleted it, as even I couldn't follow what I'd just written and I made some assumptions that weren't accurate (you have to assume everyone who was investigated was investigated just once. I figure this won't hold water as lots of people are suspicious of tekk and fark).

If we had three people investigate different scum last night, the chance of at least one living until tomorrow is decent. I think it's fair to say that 1 will probably be useless and 1 more will get NK'ed, so we would be left with just one lead, which would be pretty good. The chance of this scenerio happening is remote however.

If we had two people investigate different scum last night, there's a good chance that just one will live/be useful. There's also a chance neither will.

If just ONE person investigated scum last night, the chance of them living through the night/being useful I'd wager is 0%.

I don't even want to talk about if no one did.

The problem with Zeek's plan is it assumes the scum will get investigated (which if you're scum is convienent if you know how many scum got investigated).

I advocate investigating who you want tonight (you can still investigate aimless if you can't scumhunt without knowing your sanity). When we have to reveal tomorrow, it will make it tougher for scum to come up with their reasons for why they investigated who they did.

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