Open 762: CK9++ [Over!]

[Sakura Hana]

Also wait, why did ur reaction to my sheep vote take so long then.

[Korina]

VOTE COUNT 2.11

gobbledygook (4, L-2!):

Rick Dalton, Skygazer, Sakura Hana, Formerfish

Persivul (2):

Doctor Drew, gobbledygook

Sakura Hana (1):

Persivul

Doctor Drew (0):

James Brafin (0):

Formerfish (0):

Spangled (0):

Gamma Emerald (0):

Skygazer (0):

Chemist1422 (0):

Rick Dalton (0):

No-Lynch (0):

Not Voting (4):

Spangled, Chemist1422, Gamma Emerald, James Brafin
With

11

alive, it takes

6

to lynch.

(expired on 2019-08-13 00:35:00) remain in the day.

Mod Notes

:
- Remember: Flavor is just flavor. Don't use it to make arguments.
- Chemist1422 is V/LA until Thursday, August 8th, 2019.
- Spangled is V/LA until Weekday, Month Day, Year due to being "sicker than any dog you care to name with a diarrhea-and-vomit bug"
- Skygazer is V/LA until Friday, August 9th, 2019.
- I am V/LA until Friday, August 9th, 2019.

Me being Me

- Sakura Hana is now recovering from the cold.
- Rick Dalton has corrected me: They don't watch movies, they live them. I can only assume this means their activity will be lessened.
- Formerfish has informed me that they don't watch movies, they direct them and everyone in them. I can only assume this means their activity will be lessened.
- Skygazer was fairly busy yesterday, and will be back today.

[gobbledygook]

Also wait, why did ur reaction to my sheep vote take so long then.

Because I am more concerned with people that I think are scum. Although, that was foolish of me to even do in the first place. Why would I waste time arguing with scum, I don't even know. I will say that your vote set us down that path and I am annoyed with you for that. If this all goes to crap, I do want you to feel guilt for this town loss.

Also, what post about Rick do you mean with Persivul, I'm not seeing what you're seeing in 1639 unless you mean where he says "Rick is obvtown" after I asked him about a Rick, which is my point entirely. It took me, the first person in the friggin game mind you, to ask Persivul about that read. He did not freely offer that up.

[Sakura Hana]

Oh ok, nvm then. I completely misread your post.

[gobbledygook]

[gobbledygook]

I am the vigilante. I did not crumb because I considered any of my shots would be proof in themselves. I did not shoot last night because I did not have a strong enough feel about anyone in the game. I will be shooting tonight, if I am able. I probably should have crumbed now that I am going to get roleblocked until I die.

Anyway, since I am a vigilante that means we are at least on II // KK // with the possibility for II // KK // P? // M? // ? given the claims. I personally think that we are on a 0 T game because if we had one T that would mean there is a serial killer in the game and I doubt that the serial killer

also

no killed last night. It is possible that they shot James Brafin, but I'm not entirely sure. Additionally, it could be that we have a jailkeeper who stopped things. But again, I am not sure.

It is also possible that Drew is lying and we do not have any Doctor or any P which would probably make sense, but I believe Drew and if I am as right as I think I am then, we do not need to sort him until much later.

Given this revelation, I think I have narrowed down are scumspect pool considerably... This is the solve that I began to formulate after Drew claimed.

Doctor Drew
Gamma Emerald
Skygazer
James Braffin
Sakura Hana
Persivul
Chemist1422
Rick Dalton
Formerfish

---

These are the currently alive players minus Spangled because mantises are really

tiny

and minus me because Turkeys. Why else would America eat them every year? Based off this, there are 3 scum in those 9 players.

From my perspective, Sakura Hana can only be scum with Chemist, or if she is the Mafia JOAT who used the Ninja kill the first night which would be so highly unlikely. Additionally, Chemist can only be scum if we are not on II. Based off the day play from both of those players, I do not think that they are scum.

Additionally, Drew has claimed to be Doctor. While his play has been super suspect, I do believe the claim and he can be town now.

---

Gamma Emerald
Skygazer
James Braffin
Persivul
Rick Dalton
Formerfish

That means there are 3 scum in these 7 people. That's pretty crazy odds for me to hit scum from my perspective. Of course, if Drew is lying the odds are still 3 out of 8, but still. That's nearly 50%.

Based off day play, I think that Skygazer is probably town because she has been genuine and original thoughts on a couple of different things in the game. I do not think that scum would be as dogged about me and my slot or as original with those reads concerning me and Drew. She seems like a lurky type player in that regard. That said, she did say something about an SK which implied SK hunting which is always a scumtell. I have no idea how to read Gamma, but based on his play so far, I think he is more likely to be town than not. With this list, I am going to look through Implosion's ISO to see who he suspects the most.

As it stands though this is my reads list

Town to Scum:

Spangled
Chemist1422
Sakura
Drew
Skygazer
Gamma
Rick Dalton
James Braffin
Formerfish
Persivul

Knowing my luck, I will be wrong about all of this. I think I am right that the scum are in {Persivul, Formerfish, James Braffin}. I began looking into those three specifically together and I feel I am right because all of their lists have each other as either null or a slight read on way or another which I think is to keep the option open for bussing

For example, James Braffin posts this reads list...

Chemist is pinging me. So is Pers, who doesn't seem toe really be adding anything to the gamestate
Implosion strikes me as town-ish, in a "using other's content bot not generating a lot of my own" kinda way. But he's been super active and building off several other players, which I expect from town, not scum.
Jackal I can't sort yet. Not enough info.
Korina and The Worst are both obviously scum.
Arch is... odd. I'd like to see vote reasoning here, but I can't say he's super scummy without it. VERY slight scumread,
Dr. doesn't have enough, but Dry-fit has me concerned. He feels like he's coasting, which I don't feel like is a town thing.
Gamma is fluff-posting, which I find scummy as frick. Speaking of, yes, I prefer RQS.
Phil is maybe town, considering his posts, and Sakura as well. I feel like as scum they both would have pushed harder against me for my bad reasoning, but they didn't try to build that case and that strikes me as townish.

@mod V/LA for two days

Noted.
-Kor

but before I go..
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=80331&user_select[]=33000
VOTE: Persivul

@mod V/LA got cut short so im back

Noted.
-Kor

So he got a slight scum read on this, but somehow can't form a read on this

VOTE: Gamma
For using a color that's impossible to read on the dark boards theme. I literally had to open a quote-reply to see what that post said.

@Mod

Please note I'm officially V/LA until next Friday (the 26th) due to a billing/payment issue with my home internet. It should not cause activity issues though, as I can post via my phone which has unlimited data.

Noted.
-Kor

Not really. More like this, with no particular order within groups::

{Skygazer, James, Sakura}
{Everyone else, for various reasons}
{Phil}
{Thespio}

Town:

Spang
FF
Hana
Thes
Dry

EP
Chem
JB

Gamma
Pers

Drew

Imp
Phil
:

Scum

Of course, I could be totally wrong about all of this and it is what it is, but based off how Fish and Persivul reacted to me pressuring Persivul, I think I am right. I wanted to post an encrypted message saying that Fish would vote me, but then I realized I would probably be modkilled for it. Which honestly at this point, doesn't sound too bad to be freed from a town that 1) isn't playing and 2) isn't reading.

Now that I've claimed though, I won't be able to prove myself until the RB is dead but at that point I'll probably be dead too so, thanks Sakura? Your gambit got the Doctor and the Vigilante to claim. A+ town play right there. If you're mafia, honestly you deserve to win just based off that fact.

I think given the specific setup that I think we have a mass claim today probably wins us the game. We still have a vengeful/pgo and a full cop or tracker out there. I think the PGO should claim, but the vengeful should not (honestly though, vengeful by itself is such a stupid role. It is like a jester and encourages anti-town play despite being a town aligned role).

The full cop or tracker is confirmed town though due to setup spec, again unless, Chemist is mafia, but I don't see it. If we are on PP that other role also becomes conftown. If we have an A that role is also conftown. Really in my mind, we would just start to play this with a bunch of named townies and the moment we hit the roleblocker we probably bulldoze.

Sakura, you can unvote now and vote Persivul.

[Sakura Hana]

oof, another self resolving claim. ok
VOTE: persivul

[gobbledygook]

Thinking about it I do feel strongly about mass claim but towns are usually like lynch that with fire. I think that scum also would not have had enough time to crumb a specific role so I think we are more likely to catch them off guard

Pgo/vengeful + cop/tracker + Spangled + Chemist + me + Drew + Sakura leaves very little room for scum to fakeclaim or even maneuver. Although if Drew is scum this whole plan is shot to more risky, but I think he is more likely to be town

[gobbledygook]

At this point moving forward if you are not the Pgo/vengeful cop/tracker and one of the above mentioned people you're just dying - straight up. Would prefer we go through my list of Persivul, Fish, and JB, but I don't have enough energy in me to fight anymore

[gobbledygook]

oof, another self resolving claim. ok
VOTE: persivul

What is actually your opinion of my case on Persivul now that you know not to misread it and now that I have narrowed our focus?

[gobbledygook]

Also JB was the lurker person I graphed last night that I mentioned yesterday



The dotted line is the trend line. As you can see and probably got the feeling from JB, he has trended into a

LURKER

Spoiler: JB Activity Flow Data

July 18 -- 18 posts
July 19 -- 3 posts
July 20 -- 3 posts
July 21 -- 2 posts
July 22 -- 0 post
July 23 -- 3 posts
July 24 -- 8 posts
July 25 -- 2 posts
July 26 -- 6 posts
July 27 -- 5 posts
July 27 to 29 Night
July 30 -- 9 posts
July 31 -- 3 posts
Aug 1 -- 1 post
Aug 2 -- 0 posts
Aug 3 -- 0 posts
Aug 5 -- 0 posts
Aug 6 -- 1 post

[Sakura Hana]

oof, another self resolving claim. ok
VOTE: persivul

What is actually your opinion of my case on Persivul now that you know not to misread it and now that I have narrowed our focus?

Could care less about your case, he's not in the town bloc, he's also part of Rick's potential scumteam, and he's voting me, All good reasons tbh.

[Sakura Hana]

To clarify, i still think you and drew have a decent chance of being scum, but if you're town, then scum wants you dead as much as i do, so i wont be doing their job for them.

[gobbledygook]

Why do you play mafia

[Sakura Hana]

coz it's fun.

[gobbledygook]

Ok you’re just a whimsical player then this all makes sense

[Persivul]

I am the vigilante. I did not crumb because I considered any of my shots would be proof in themselves. I did not shoot last night because I did not have a strong enough feel about anyone in the game. I will be shooting tonight, if I am able. I probably should have crumbed now that I am going to get roleblocked until I die.

I can't say I like this at all.

You openly softed a PR, but that doesn't mean much. However, I had been relying on my familiarity with C9++, until I got time earlier today to read the CK wiki page. There I noticed:

I = {Cop OR Tracker} (50/50 chance of either, the same is true for all "OR" options)

II = {Cop OR Tracker}, {1-Shot Cop OR 1-Shot Tracker}

In C9, cop starts at 1-shot, then progresses to full. This is different. With chem's claim, that means that there's a full cop or tracker. It made me think of your post:

hi I'm the 1-shot tracker, got a no visits result last night on Sakura

k bye

Why would you claim this?

I took this to indicate that you're the full cop or tracker, and you were irritated that chem's claim let scum know that one of those is in the game. Having gone this far, I scanned for crumbs, and found this:

I had a fever dream last night. In that dream I was arrested. That was not good. Not good at all.

A completely out of context post with a cop theme. I also considered that a couple of us noticed that you were scum reading Drew D1, but did a reversal D2. So, you investigated a scum read N1, got an inno, and so the reversal D2. It all seemed to fit, so I unvoted.

Looking at the claims:
Vig - at least KK, and at least a PGO or Vengeful in addition
1X tracker - exactly II
Doc - at least P
IC - at least M

So, at least 6 letters, which means a 50% chance that scum have a RB, and if not, they have a JOAT with 1X RB

There's no town motivation to claim an active role knowing that there's a 50% chance it can be blocked indefinitely. OTOH, if you're scum, you now have a claim out there which can't be disproven until a RB or JOAT flips, and if you're that person anyway, you lose nothing.

[Persivul]

oof, another self resolving claim. ok

No, it doesn't self resolve, because now that he's claimed, he can just say that there were no extra kills due to the RB.

Also note that for an SK, a N1 no kill gambit (or being blocked) followed by a vig claim is an interesting gambit.

[Persivul]

I generally don't like to ask for claims (and in fact took a risk trying to protect what I thought gob was), but in this case, I think that if there's a vengeful or PGO, they should consider claiming, as that would support gob's claim.

[gobbledygook]

You thought I was a cop this entire time and still voted me?

[gobbledygook]

Your play makes no sense from any town perspective. You lambast me for putting Drew at L-1, then this entire time think that I am a cop and still vote me. Yeah no.

[gobbledygook]

I take back the mass claim idea. Persivul just claimed scum with that logic. I was worried he was a PR but he isn’t based off that reaction.

[Persivul]

You thought I was a cop this entire time and still voted me?

Of course not. As I said:

I got time

earlier today

to read the CK wiki page. There I noticed: etc.

Once I was convinced you were cop, I unvoted, asked fish to do so as well since he was recently online and might still be, and tried to get a wagon going on Hana, who had pinged me with the vote (and who now very easily sheeped you onto my wagon). I did everything I could to derail your wagon without yelling "He's a cop."

[gobbledygook]

Nah. Cop is even less confirmable than vigilante, I don’t know why you would somehow believe cop more than a vig.

[Persivul]

Nah. Cop is even less confirmable than vigilante, I don’t know why you would somehow believe cop more than a vig.

Cop makes sense due to: your reaction to chem's claim, plus your reversal on reading drew, plus your cop-themed dream post.

The vig claim is sketchy af because: you claimed it unnecessarily when your wagon was declining, and in the same post you pointed out that the possibility of RB made it unverifiable.