Newbie 1955 - wikihow mafia [game over]

[Robbnva]

Like he pissed me off by stealing my hammer. He didn’t even want a claim lynch.

[Robbnva]

Like really fucking pissed me off.

[Robbnva]

He was pushing emps. Makes sense.

Tw/Mack slots looked bad. I’m pushing both of them. Not even considering emps.

I doubt it’s a frame job and if it is scum is tw/myself

[the worst]

Yeah, I kinda forgot power roles were a thing and got sidetracked when I mentioned Kerset.

What I wanted to say is I agree with your reads. The strong townies vs. a vocal townie mislynch on d1 is consistent with a gamestate of town self-destructing. Scum who comes into the thread and sees town just lynching itself for them don't tend to play too hard. I sincerely agree scum were more likely to have coasted day one.

For me it's just a matter of determining which style of coasting they would have adopted. Mack had a lot of reads and stances but didn't commit to any. Emps didn't have as many reads which require a lot of criticality.

pedit: me asking for Claim's claim was bait. If he claimed doctor I would have wrecked him, without the doctor counterclaiming. He hammered because he knew it was scum and nothing else was gonna happen d2 (except like, maybe you and me becoming more obvtown. but I'm not concerned about that)

It was early but the hammer was inevitable so I'm probably not gonna lose sleep over it.

Dong was also v unlikely to be aligned with ClaimNow. He also synergised well with me, and apparently jarred you. He's a good nightkill in order to throw off the predictability of the game if scum want to hope that we panic and mislynch.

I think the night-kill makes sense from you, emps or Mack. Not particularly from Asia or I. You're town independently. So the circle completes itself.

[the worst]

If I were scum, Dong was firmly in my pocket. Closing games as a scum replace-in is really my only skill. Going into lategame with a skilled pocket when I could have night-killed you is firmly against my m.o.

I'd argue scum!Asia is probably along the same lines. Obviously I don't know her scum meta, but I can't see her deciding that taking Dong out of the game is a good idea.

If you're scum, you made the NK entirely for chaos. Emps or Mack make the NK to hope that we fall apart and destroy each other.

[the worst]

That sounded bad. Didn't mean to imply you're unskilled and Dong is skilled. I think you're a lot harder to pocket.

[Robbnva]

If I was scum I leave dong alive. I was going to vote him today cause that hammer looked bad

[Robbnva]

I probably kill Asia slot tbh.

[Robbnva]

Hopefully emps concedes but he probably won’t so be better make one hell of an argument on why he’s town and who the last scum is.

That’s basically where I’m at. Waiting with anticipation

[the worst]

That's fair. Just SEposting quickly for posterity: discussing "IF I WERE SCUM...." scenarios is generally unwise at length. It leads to a lot of discussions with a lot of fairly easy answers which can just be avoided in favour of playing the game by reading what people have actually done.

On this occasion it's just another small piece of evidence which makes me think that I'm on the right track, as I can't think of a realistic reason for my townreads to have made the night-kill.



First step in today's challenge is working out which one of emps and Mack are town. If we can knock a PoE down to 1 probable person, we're basically on a highway to winning the game.

I hope the last scum doesn't concede! This final run home is deliciously fun. I live for it.

[emps]

Well uhm you guys want me to claim first I guess.

I'm doc.

[emps]

Wait shit claim flipped rb I retract my doc claim

I'll explain why I fakeclaimed doc next post, on mobile rn

[emps]

I was thinking that if no one cced, no pr would be able to claim later, but if there was a cc, they would be conftown because scum wouldn't cc a claimed pr as the last scum the day before lylo

[the worst]

Wait shit claim flipped rb I retract my doc claim

I'll explain why I fakeclaimed doc next post, on mobile rn

I was thinking that if no one cced, no pr would be able to claim later, but if there was a cc, they would be conftown because scum wouldn't cc a claimed pr as the last scum the day before lylo

is this a teaching moment? is this my read? who knows, I guess we'll find out soon!

what we have here is one of:
a) emps forgetting that Claim flipped mafia roleblocker. This would mean that emps has gently slipped his alignment and is probably town, and his case above is valid. This would also be what some call "fancy player syndrome", where town!emps is trying to outplay his opponents--but then fell on his butt.

b) emps engineering a post to look like it is a slip. this might be scum or might be town motivated. but his purpose is deceptive, in that he wants us to to believe he has less information than he has. so this usually comes from scum. usually you can spot a fake slip by looking for something that just seems too silly to be real.

I don't really have a strong read on whether this is a or b. I think fancy player syndrome is something emps has as both alignments. I do somewhat think that town!emps is capable of double-checking that his gambit would work before trying to execute it so... In a pinch, I'd say that it's certainly not town indicative, and is possibly scum indicative.

over to you guys if you disagree. I really want to see a town!emps countercase if anyone's in the mood.

[the worst]

Myself - vt
emps - vt
Asia
Mack
Robb

I am a vt, I'd like to hear from Aisa next.

[emps]

hey this is the only time i tried to do a cool thing and it didnt really work out

unless you count turning a d3 win into a d6 win but like we dont talk about that

[the worst]

how's my solve, emps?

[emps]

ur aolve is me ---> mack and uh im townreading mack and i dont exactly like dying so uhm bad

[the worst]

alrighty who's scum to you? can you towncase Mack for me or scumcase them?

[Robbnva]

I’m underwhelmed. And da fuck was that fake claim.

[Aisa]

Myself - vt
emps - vt
Asia
Mack
Robb

I am a vt, I'd like to hear from Aisa next.

I thought you were sring Mack?

[Aisa]

Let's break this down.

	D3	N3	D4
Two doctor claims	Lynch the two doctors in two days, automatic town win.
One doctor claim	Doctor is confirmed.	Doc nightkilled?	Three non-confirmed players.
No massclaim today	No confirmed players.	Someone is nightkilled.	2 VTs vs. 1 claimed doc or 1 VT vs 2 claimed doctors.

You yourself (@the worst) say it's unlikely scum ccs a claimed doctor today. So we're essentially weighing the possibility of confirming someone today vs confirming someone tomorrow. It's not immediately obvious what the best option is, but I'd say probably tomorrow? There's a decent probability you're just fishing so as far as I'm concerned this is -townpoints for you.

[the worst]

Yeah, I do think Mack is scum if it's not emps. I think emps is the last scum though. I can explain my claim order later if you want.

And yes, weighing up claiming today vs. tomorrow I have a strong preference for today. Given we are half way through mass claim are you comfortable with the prospect of finishing it, discussing reads, and then having me explain it? I know I'm playing fancy now but there are particularly valuable tells which are basically instantaneously exhausted if I justify them now.

[the worst]

My soul is burning here Aisa. I want to explain my reasoning right now but it's technically -info to blast into it until at least massclaim is over. :@

[the worst]

UGH it hardly materially matters but I have this weird nagging gut feeling like I shouldn't speak yet. There's a thing I'm considering very heavily about a certain tell which I'll circle back to later.