Detective Penguin & City of Fogport [Game Over]

[Vecna]

I blame myself for bringing that up so early in the day so they could hop onto that. Oh well.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

He wouldn't have known his sanity, so either he guessed correctly or actually investigated.

I wouldn't call it "lucky". Naive always gets a clear regardless, and paranoid always gets a guilty. Sane gets it right and Insane gets the inverse.

If Chandra claims to have got a guilty on a townie. By that time nobody knew their sanities, so he could have been (from everyone else's PoV) Sane, Insane or Paranoid. That's a 75% chance AT THAT POINT. The result would not hurt Scum, but it would have made you all doubt your results in the future. (Unless you think chandra was planning on getting lynched on that day)

P.S. Note the IF at the start of the second paragraph. I was actually asking Vecna to remind me who chandra checked and what result she claimed.

[Vecna]

Also, PP.....

That attitude of "I aint discussing with you"

What?

As town id expect you to be aware you need 4 votes here or its a loss.

If youre right and Bingle is scum, youre going to have to convince either me or Marquis. So far youre doing a hell of a piss poor job on that.

[PenguinPower]

Also, PP.....

That attitude of "I aint discussing with you"

What?

As town id expect you to be aware you need 4 votes here or its a loss.

If youre right and Bingle is scum, youre going to have to convince either me or Marquis. So far youre doing a hell of a piss poor job on that.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I don't like being tunneled for shit reasons. You aren't saying "if" you are saying "you are" so I'm going to shutdown to you, specifically.

[Bingle]

I mean, they have to right? Thats the only play left to them if the scumteam is in fact JJD/PP.

They could also have done any of the plays I anticipated and broke down in the neighborhood last night. Also, I'm getting the feeling it's croag, not PP. PP seems to have been lead into these conclusions, which implies croag prepped PP over the night phase to make the push for her.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Yeah, but scum has no reason not to lie about who they investigated the second time, assuming jjd is town. Assuming jjd is scum, a guilty result on jjd scum from either of you confirms the other to be naive.

Basically, scum cop only actually has to gamble once here. And it would have been on chenn. Which you’re both confirmed to have told the truth on.

1- Why would "my scum buddy" check me here? They already know my alignment and they don't need to determine their sanity at this point if the game.

2- Why would scum take a gamble on chenn? Why risk outing themselves when their p -supposedly me- is already under heavy pressure/suspicion?

3- Why would the scum team (of me and a Cop) be shooting chenn over the other Cop? In my book, they shoot the other Cop 100% of the time to eliminate the chance of getting a guilty on me. If the other Cop is Sane then I am still a suspect but not a convict. If they are the Naive Cop then my buddy CAN fake an innocent on me with more confidence.

Hello?

P.S. Let's not forget nobody (outside your hoof) knew you/Vecna could be shot, so shooting chenn "because he was uncaffeinated" just doesn't cut it here. A Scum duo solely outside your hood wasn't playing for the secondary win con and couldn't have been.

[Bingle]

Scum cop investigations breakdown:

Let's assume for a moment that I am a scum cop of non random unknown alignment. N1 I holster.

N2, I investigate chennisden (Town), and receive the result innocent. I know, at this point, that I am either a Sane cop or a Naive cop.

N3, I investigate my scumbuddy (Scum), and receive the result innocent. I know, at this point, that I am a Naive cop, and anyone I could have targeted would give me an innocent result. I can safely claim an innocent result on literally anyone because that's all I can get.

N3, I investigate my scumbuddy (Scum), and receive the result guilty. I know, at this point, that I am a Sane cop, and anyone I could have targeted would give me an accurate result. I can safely claim an innocent result because the other cop will also have gotten an innocent result.

Alternatively: N2 I investigate scum. I receive an Inno, and am either Naive or insane. I receive a guilty and am Sane (Paranoid already flipped). As soon as Kagami flips insane at day start, I know my sanity, and can safely never use my role again because I know how every player would investigate to me.

tl;dr: predicting the other cop's result wasn't a towntell at all.

[PenguinPower]

...

[Bingle]

I'll get to 4205, but yes, all of those were addressed over the night phase.

I broke down every possible nightkill. I broke down every possible combination of two nightkills (chenn acts). I broke down which scumteams were likely to perform which nightkills and why. I didn't consider a 3p scumteam because it's ridiculous.

[PenguinPower]

VOTE: JJD

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

But why would you holster on N1 if determining your sanity is so important to you?

[PenguinPower]

craog said she was away from site for the whole night phase.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

craog said she was away from site for the whole night phase.

You know it's customary that ANY scum team member can submit action on behalf of their buddies.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

And Bingle still didn't answer why chenn over the Town Cop of the two.

If it's me + Croag, and Croag doesn't know he sanity they you should have been shot to prevent you from "possibly" getting a guilty on me.
If Croag already knew her Sanity (and I lied about my action on N1 to cover for hers) we still should have shot you, because if she is Naive you're going to guilty me, and if she is Sane her result would have more credibility with the Town.

Now add the special relation between you and I and you know you were the NK if I was scum at all. You yourself picked me of all people to tag for the kill the last time you were scum, so why wouldn't I?

[Bingle]

Okay, let's sole examine the balance of Vecna/Bingle being the last scum, because if FG was super dumb and didn't balance correctly and it isn't Vecna, it doesn't matter because we have another day anyway.

Scum has:

Paranoid Cop
Ninja Watcher
BP Multivoter

Town has:
Sane Cop
Insane Cop
Ninja Parity Cop
3x 1shot Vig
1x 2shot Vig
Ninja Tracker
1x Doctor
1x JK
1x VT
1x Multivoter
1x Friendly Neighbor

Multiple public millers.

This setup is EXTREMELY broken by massclaim.

The vigs can only target in a pool of 14 which has 2 scum in it. To that end, you lynch me and Vecna first (useless roles), then Marquis. Lets assume, for the moment, that that hits town first and scum second. Town is now at 13 people (11v2), maybe.

Kuribo is the obvious nightkill post massclaim. You assign 1 of the 4 doctors to protect him over night, randomly chosen from inside of the doc hood. Kuribo/1 Doc/Cops act. Everyone else holsters.

If Kuribo survives, has a 75% chance of having a useful cop result N1. Cops begin getting useful results N2.
There are 6 caffeinated town on D3 with 13 people. Caffeine is a non issue. If scum shoots for caffeine wincon, they let 3 investigations happen every night. Scum can't win that.

If scum shoots for non caffeine, they abandon the caffeine wincon and are functionally 3 goons (one of which is conditionally guiltied by being the best D1/2 policy lynch) in a town with 4 vigs that all want to holster until there's a really small kill pool.

tl;dr, if there's a three person scumteam with me or Vecna, town had a high chance of literally making this game unwinnable for them on D1. FG isn't a shit mod.

[Bingle]

1- Why would "my scum buddy" check me here? They already know my alignment and they don't need to determine their sanity at this point if the game.

2- Why would scum take a gamble on chenn? Why risk outing themselves when their p -supposedly me- is already under heavy pressure/suspicion?

3- Why would the scum team (of me and a Cop) be shooting chenn over the other Cop? In my book, they shoot the other Cop 100% of the time to eliminate the chance of getting a guilty on me. If the other Cop is Sane then I am still a suspect but not a convict. If they are the Naive Cop then my buddy CAN fake an innocent on me with more confidence.

Hello?

P.S. Let's not forget nobody (outside your hoof) knew you/Vecna could be shot, so shooting chenn "because he was uncaffeinated" just doesn't cut it here. A Scum duo solely outside your hood wasn't playing for the secondary win con and couldn't have been.

Let's divide this into 4 parts and answer non sequentially for the drama!

4. Why claim we're not actually bulletproof?

First of all: FL had already figured it out (Vecna made it clear over the night that this was the major source of his suspicion yesterday), and Vecna made it fairly reasonable to guess multiple times. JJD guessed that we weren't really bulletproof several times. The secret wasn't guaranteed to be a secret anymore.

Second of all: claiming the non BP nature of the hood gives the benefit of not dancing around my townread on Vecna any more.

Third: If we lynch the town outside of our hood, scum has to nightkill in the hood anyway to take the chance. They immediately win, sure, but since there's three town in our hood, scum has to gamble on being able to kill us eventually. They can't not shoot us, because they lose if they don't.

Fourth: At the time, if Marquis was scum, he already knew we weren't really bulletproof.


Over the night phase, option 3 hadn't occurred to me and I was annoyed with Vecna for outing that particular bit of information. I realized while looking for a way croag's result changed JJD necessarily being scum here that option 3 was in play.

[Bingle]

2- Why would scum take a gamble on chenn? Why risk outing themselves when their p -supposedly me- is already under heavy pressure/suspicion?

What gamble? There was no scum gamble here. Either A) scum had perfect information and could lie with impunity or B) scum was trueclaiming. In either case... there was 0% risk.

[Bingle]

1- Why would "my scum buddy" check me here? They already know my alignment and they don't need to determine their sanity at this point if the game.

Why wouldn't your scumbuddy claim to have checked you?

They have two options for investigations. You, or the other cop. If they claim an inno on the other cop, they're an idiot. If they claim a guilty on the other cop, they have a 1v1 with the other cop with you as the only potential partner. If they claim an inno on you, they can maybe swing a Bingle/Vecna team with the other cop instead of the hard 1v1. Of course, I had to go and ruin that pipe dream.

[Vecna]

VOTE: JJD

wtf? Why would you EVER vote this before Croag?

[Bingle]

3- Why would the scum team (of me and a Cop) be shooting chenn over the other Cop? In my book, they shoot the other Cop 100% of the time to eliminate the chance of getting a guilty on me. If the other Cop is Sane then I am still a suspect but not a convict. If they are the Naive Cop then my buddy CAN fake an innocent on me with more confidence.

First of all, discounting the "Scum already knew the other cop's sanity 9/10 times" bit:

Potential NK's for a JJD/Cop team:

The 'BP' hood: This is a gamble. It was also probably the best way out. I left a last will to lynch JJD regardless of arguments if this was the case. Still, the gamble didn't need to be made yesterday. There was significant paranoia about both me and Vecna and a shitton of pants-on-head "the guy who shot fish is scum" from every corner of the universe yesterday (and even today!) so leaving us alive as possible lynch choices made a ton of sense.

A Cop: This is a trap. See, the only possible partners for Chenn as of yesterday were the cops. The wincon for JJD/Cop scumteam is lynch town in hood, or lynch town and hope BP hood isn't as BP as it's made out to be. Chenn was never getting lynched today. We always would have lynched for his partner first.

Chenn: You kill a player who is functionally conftown for today, leaving all of today's mislynches viable. There's still a 1v1 in the worst case scenario. In the best case scenario, you have 4 equally viable lynches.

tl;dr, Marquis was the best kill. Marquis also had an instant lose button WIFOM'd in. The town cop was literally the worst kill possible from your POV.

[Vecna]

Hmm I just thought of something.

Maybe.....the mod wouldnt end the game here if there was a scum in my hood + someone else.

Because whoever is caffeinated isnt factually know. Weve just been outing it, but the game couldve just been designed that scum arent supposed to really know it so it wouldnt end?

[Bingle]

VOTE: JJD

wtf? Why would you EVER vote this before Croag?

Actually...

VOTE: JJD

I don't think croag/PP is possible. Vecna is conftown to me. Marquis can't be scum without JJD.

It literally has to be JJD here.

Although, for the record, the chenn flip clears marquis just as handily as Vecna's logic about caffeinations.

[Bingle]

Hmm I just thought of something.

Maybe.....the mod wouldnt end the game here if there was a scum in my hood + someone else.

Because whoever is caffeinated isnt factually know. Weve just been outing it, but the game couldve just been designed that scum arent supposed to really know it so it wouldnt end?

I addressed this in the PT. If I were scum I'd have claimed it because there's literally nothing you could do to stop me. I wouldn't have put in the effort to solve the game, that's for damned sure.

[Vecna]

Im still REALLY wondering though why a scum JJD would be using his ability on anyone that wasnt fish on N1 though.

Wait, did we deduce which doc he is? Would his ability have saved fish?

[Vecna]

Hmm I just thought of something.

Maybe.....the mod wouldnt end the game here if there was a scum in my hood + someone else.

Because whoever is caffeinated isnt factually know. Weve just been outing it, but the game couldve just been designed that scum arent supposed to really know it so it wouldnt end?

I addressed this in the PT. If I were scum I'd have claimed it because there's literally nothing you could do to stop me. I wouldn't have put in the effort to solve the game, that's for damned sure.

fair