Alisae V Pine: Trees Apparently Make Good Treestumps

[Formerfish]

Boom

[popsofctown]

You're way off Formerfish

[Formerfish]

You're way off Formerfish

By all means walk me down the ind of PP

[popsofctown]

I think I'm way off too.

I think a key point that's supposed to be in there is that you either believe chennis would be aware of the desperado, or not, and PP changed his mind after sleeping on it. Chennis tends to be pretty engaged with his games so it's a hard sell that as town he tuned out of this one.


He stated he's read zero but he -immediately- showed up when I compared his play in starcraft to here.

[popsofctown]

I don't know it's pretty abstract gifs
Other people can read PP for me
Chennis is so scummy it's hard to handle here
Deadsheep Ank on it

[Formerfish]

Chennis is so scummy it's hard to handle here

Then why are we fighting? Lets be friends and hang him together.

[Dannflor]

chennis only shows up to defends himself

he's not playing the game

[PenguinPower]

(Did this happen in thread, not saying I dont believe you, just that I dont remember if it was said here)

[PenguinPower]

How close was i?

[PenguinPower]

I think a key point that's supposed to be in there is that you either believe chennis would be aware of the desperado, or not, and PP changed his mind after sleeping on it.

[Titus]

Chennis is so scummy it's hard to handle here

Then why are we fighting? Lets be friends and hang him together.

+1 there's always a chance mastina dies overnight

[Jingle]

Vote Count 3.13

Flavor

With 18 alive it is 10 to Lynch or 9 to No Lynch!

chennisden (7): Something_Smart, Gamma Emerald, Formerfish, Titus, PenguinPower, Dannflor, Pink Ball,
mastina (6): Katsuki, MariaR, Krazy, Iconeum, the worst, popsofctown,
Krazy (2): mastina, Menalque,
popsofctown (0):
Firebringer (0):
the worst (0):
Pink Ball (0):
PenguinPower (0):
Katsuki (0):
Something_Smart (0):
Menalque (0):
Titus (0):
MariaR (0):
Gamma Emerald (0):
GreyICE (0):
Formerfish (0):
Iconeum (0):
Dannflor (0):

Not Voting (3): chennisden, GreyICE, Firebringer,


Alisae endorses:

Deadline: Day 3 will end after 10 days, on October 1st. This is in (expired on 2019-10-01 20:38:00).

Pine is offering a Governor fruit. Firebringer is bargaining for it.
Pine is offering a Neighborizer Fruit. Gamma Emerald and Titus are bargaining for it.
Pine is offering a Jailkeeper Fruit. PenguinPower is bargaining for it.
Gamma Emerald is V/LA. While his head is as strong as an Emerald, it is still inadvisable to use it as his primary means of attack.

[Jingle]

Prodding Katsuki.

Apparently she's V/LA and I didn't notice. My bad.

GreyICE has roughly 30 minutes to post before I start searching for a replacement.

[Katsuki]

how did my prod dodge expire so fast...

[GreyICE]

Hi, I am here.

[Pink Ball]

Hi here, I am Pink

[Pine]

Hi Pink, I am evil.

[mastina]

pls don't be like SS and think being a martyr is somehow good for the town.

>Says "Please don't be like SS and think being a martyr is somehow good for the town"
>Is being a martyr by attempting to hold the game hostage with the governor.

[Pine]

Bored

VOTE: Mastina

[mastina]

What the fuck did I just read

Since we're close to deadline, today's probably the last day I'll be reliably around, so in the deadline rush I'll be unable to defend myself from the inevitable bullshit and resurgence of the mastina wagon I'm probably ending up lynched today so in my death throes can I just throw away all of my read accuracy and say that I am caving in to paranoia about Gamma Emerald maybe actually being just legit scum with popsofctown as looking pretty damn town in the exchange with Firebringer?

Because this is the sort of thing I would normally not mention because fuck paranoia, stick to my reads so I can die knowing I was either absolutely right or absolutely wrong, no need to hate myself for second-guessing a correct scumread and no way to weasel out of a wrong scumread (basically, if I commit to someone being scum and that read is wrong, I am held accountable for that mistake and must own up to it, but if I second-guess the scumread, there's an option for me to try and opt out of accountability for the wrong read and...I dislike doing that even though I know I am naturally inclined to do exactly that).

But fuckit I feel like I should voice it out anyway.
So.

It is moments like this where I second-guess my townread assessment on Gamma and posting like pops did which makes me think that she's probably actually town.

[Pine]

We're not close to deadline, the day has like 1/3 of the allotted time left.

[Firebringer]

pls don't be like SS and think being a martyr is somehow good for the town.

>Says "Please don't be like SS and think being a martyr is somehow good for the town"
>Is being a martyr by attempting to hold the game hostage with the governor.

just vote town chennisden so we can end this day.

[the worst]

VOTE: chennisden
Pine has good reads guys we should lynch Mastina

[mastina]

I find Firebringer's continued push on Mastina scummy because he's not really explaining why she is scum but attacking her for the way she produces her arguments or plays.

Pretty much, yes.

Firebringer is no slouch when it comes to reading me.

He is one of the few players on site I would say reliably can read me, and specifically me, even if they have no such ability to read everyone.
To put that into a more coherent way:
Everyone knows that Ellibereth can read EVERYONE. So, sure, he can reliably read me, but him reading me isn't special because he can read EVERYONE.
Everyone knows that Ankamius is great at reading everyone. Sure, she makes mistakes, but she's generally pretty damn good. She can, given time, reliably read me, but while her reliable read on me is much higher than her good reads on other players, because she still gets good reads on other players, her reliable read on me isn't particularly special.

Firebringer is great at reading me. Sure, I personally feel that as a scumhunter he is underrated and that he's better than people give him credit for--but he is very specifically damn. good. at reading ME.

Firebringer fucking knows me.

It's damn annoying when I'm scum, and when I'm scum the only real defense I can mount to his rather accurate scumreads on me is "Firebringer always pushes for a policy lynch of me, his read isn't real". Except that falls flat because Firebringer doesn't always push for a policy lynch of me; Firebringer can, has, and DOES identify me as being town and while he MIGHT policy lynch me still, he'll be saying as much and still view me as town, and sometimes he'll even--SHOCKINGLY--...not vote me.

Yes, really.

Firebringer, as town. Will on occasion. Not vote me...because he knows that I am town.

Firebringer this game is a caricature of his town self. Firebringer's stance on me isn't his stance on me as town; Firebringer's stance on me is what people THINK his stance on me is as town, but it's not really Firebringer's stance.

Firebringer, as town, knows when I am scum and uses actually legitimate, real reasons for me being scum; he has my actual scumtells down pretty damn well--yet this Firebringer isn't that town-Firebringer. This Firebringer isn't someone who is giving real reasons for me being scum; this Firebringer isn't someone who has my alignment correctly pegged; this is a Firebringer that is taking an absolutely rats-ass backwards stance on me that he wouldn't actually hold as town even if people think he would.

Because this is Firebringer as scum.

I haven't seen one good case against her and every post I read from her just reminds me more of Undertale.

Pretty much yeah. This is my towngame through and through, but I'll get to that in more detail later.

popsofctown

- Why are people scum reading this? There's no scum agenda in her posting her attempts to engage both Fire and Chennis are overtly townie imo. A lot of effort was put in there for strictly a pro-town outcome in both cases. This is a strong gut tone read I've had since the beginning of the game. I know drunk posting isn't town indicative but I'll read a post like #6974 and just be like... yup that's town. She has this casual flowy way of moving around the game that just seems very hard to replicate as scum over such a large volume of posts. I'd like to see some actual cases in regards to the scum reads on this slot because I'm not seeing the apparent weirdness others are seeing.

I'd love to case popsofctown and explain why she's scum, except there's a problem with that; I'm no longer even remotely convinced she IS, and with me not being sure she's scum, I can't write a case I'm not convinced about. If I can't convince myself someone is scum, I sure as fuck can't convince anyone else and due to that doubt I'm actually willing to buy into this believe it or not.

PenguinPower

- vaguely town pinged by an interaction he had with fish earlier in the game, nothing has impressed since then. very stale read.

There's five scum in the game--Firebringer and Krazy are two of them, but there's three others. With popsofctown as town...SOMEONE has to be scum, and if you think the worst is town which is another read that I can very plausibly buy then SOMEONE has to be scum and if not pops and if not the worst...you've still gotta find three names for being scum.

And PenguinPower tops the charts for me as a "someone's gotta be scum" candidate for being scum.

[mastina]

There's five scum in the game--Firebringer and Krazy are two of them, but there's three others. With popsofctown as town...SOMEONE has to be scum, and if you think the worst is town which is another read that I can very plausibly buy then SOMEONE has to be scum and if not pops and if not the worst...you've still gotta find three names for being scum.

And PenguinPower tops the charts for me as a "someone's gotta be scum" candidate for being scum.

To put it another way: We are well, WELL past the point in the game where this is apt to say--
Everyone in this game has some reason for why they would be town. Even Firebringer, even Krazy, even though both of them are just scum. Everyone has reasons for why they would be town and no player is without them. Not even lurkers, less active posters, etc. the likes of chennisden and the like. I can think of reasons for them to be town.

Everyone in this game has some reason for why they would be scum (barring Something_Smart, for obvious reasons). Even the likes of GreyICE, even the likes of Dannflor, even the likes of Titus. Even though all of them are just outright plain flatout town, there are reasons for why they could be scum. Everyone has reasons for why they would be scum and no non-conftown player is without them. I can think of reasons for them all.

This is pretty damn stupidly obvious; frankly you can't get to a 300+ page game and have it not be true because reasons for someone to be town/scum can appear in as little as one post yet alone players who have hundreds of posts.

So it comes down to the balance of possibilities versus probabilities.

Skygazer/Titus
Dannflor
Menalque
xofelf/Something_Smart
GreyIce
Katsuki
Formerfish

Gamma Emerald

MariaR

Iconeum



chennisden
PenguinPower

Pink Ball

popsofctown

the worst


Firebringer


Krazy

This was my last readslist, and I feel the need to cover it again going through with that mindset.
There are five scum--even with two players (Firebringer, Krazy) as lockscum, there's three other scum in the game and I'm pretty sure that in {chennisden, PenguinPower, Pink Ball, popsofctown, the worst} we'd be LUCKY if there were so much as two, when it's most likely that there's at most one scum in that grouping, if that. There's a significant chance the group is all town, only a small chance of two scum in the group, and a certainty that there's not three scum in there.

There's at least one scum, potentially up to three, and to play the middle ground let's assume two, outside of that group and outside of Firebringer/Krazy.

So

someone

has to be scum, someone we've previously written off as being town.

I am not willing to entertain the idea that Titus is scum. She is, flatout, outright, town.
I am not willing to entertain the idea that Dannflor is scum. If he is scum then he has frankly earned his win because fuckit he's just so damn town.
I said almost this same thing verbatim about Menalque--while in THIS VERY MOMENT I'm not quite as sure, I know for a fact that when I said it, AT THAT MOMENT I was and honestly? I trust that feeling of past-me even if it is CURRENTLY absent from present-me and I have full confidence that when I look at Menalque posts in more detail it will return. So I am not going to entertain the idea that Menalque is scum.
I am not willing to entertain the idea that GreyICE is scum.
I am not willing to entertain the idea that Formerfish is scum.

I am willing to entertain the idea of Katsuki being scum, but I am really really really fucking hesitant to do so. The only reason I am? When someone asked, "Why is Katsuki town?", I made a towncase for Katsuki. But at the time what I didn't say is that I almost outright deleted the case for Katsuki being town because I wasn't even sure if the towncase was accurate. I was worried that I might've been fooling myself, that I was trying to force Katsuki to be town just because I didn't want Katsuki to be scum. That moment, that moment where when I tried towncasing Katsuki and found myself thinking "this kinda feels like me bullshitting", is the reason why I'm so much as entertaining the idea because Katsuki has been town for me the entire game and it is that moment which makes me second-guess it.

I am willing to entertain the idea of Gamma Emerald being scum. I didn't say this before because obviously I don't want to mason-hunt in-thread, but at this stage I honestly don't know how to explain my stance on Gamma Emerald without going into this detail about my read on him. When Chickadee raised the thought of, "My role PM looks like mastina's. Doesn't yours?", her thought was that Gamma was scum. My thought was that Gamma had accidentally mason-slipped, that Gamma was one of Alisae's masons having inadvertently given this fact away by having said his role PM was customized, when the town role PMs...weren't.

This is one of the main reasons I was writing the slot off--but if he isn't a mason, if he isn't one of Alisae's conftown, then I'm not nearly as convinced he's town and think that Chickadee's line of reasoning was actually legitimately potentially on-point, that she correctly identified what was an actual scumslip from Gamma. Gamma's posting has felt less and less time to me over time.

But, Gamma has been a near-universal townread this game, my past self included, and I know for a fact that my past self wasn't townreading Gamma because she thought he was a mason; my past self was townreading Gamma for Gamma's play and thinking it didn't come from scum. So while I am willing to entertain the idea of Gamma being scum and even air it out inthread, I'm not sure about it.

MariaR is much the same as Gamma; I've had them reflected on my readslist since the getgo as being "my stance on these two is basically identical". Past-me thought she was town; most players in the game think that she is town. I want to trust in that but her play recently has just been...not nearly as good and makes me want to second-guess that long-established townread, so she's another one which I am willing to entertain the idea of being scum.

Iconeum was always a weak townread--and his lackluster content could just come from scum. Obviously, I am willing to entertain the idea that Iconeum is just scum lurking, even though I still kinda feel in my gut that Iconeum this game is the obligatory mislynch bait town who will inevitably be mislynched when we run out of scumreads even though he's not really got good odds of being scum.

chennisden was a weak townread--his lackluster content is admittedly suspicious and the cases for him being scum feel like they have merit to them but there's still posting which I think looks town. He's an alright compromise lynch but I'm not convinced that he is scum.

PenguinPower is my best guess for being the "for lack of better options, scum" scum; I've talked about this read about as thoroughly as I can. I can see PP as town, I can see PP as scum, and I'm not sure which is more likely even though I know that PP would have amazing utility to Pine as scum.

Pink Ball is a mixed bag. There's plenty which looks like scum, but plenty which looks like town. Push come to shove, I'd guess town, actually, in spite of him being so low on my readslist.

popsofctown I see a lot of reasons for her to be town in spite of having felt that she's been scum for the majority of the game--yeah her push on me is absolutely atrocious, but I'm actually not sure it comes from scum anymore. The pushes from other players scumreading her also feel...not really on-point? Like...I've been scumreading her most of the game, I should have a damn good grasp on what is a good reason for scumreading her and what isn't, and most of the reasons presented by others for her to be scum, just...don't seem that solid to me? So I actually think she's town now.

the worst, I can see elements of his towngame now and I really want to trust Dannflor here and he's another player who most of the reasons for why he's being scumread, don't feel like good reasons. As someone who has scumread him for the majority of the game, I should know what feels like good reasons for him to be scum and most of the presented reasons don't seem like good reasons for him to be scum.

So.
Krazy as scum.
Firebringer as scum.
There's three other scum.

My guess is that there's 1-2 in {chennisden, PP}, most likely 1, and then that the remaining 1-2 (most likely 2) are in the players I said I would entertain the scumread on.
Specifically, that the 1-2 deepwolves would be in {Katsuki, MariaR, Gamma Emerald}.

My guess of guesses:
Krazy-Firebringer-chennisden-Katsuki-MariaR.

But I'd love to talk about these in more detail because there's a war between "don't cave to paranoia" and "there's five scum in the game and only two of them are on lock with three of them being unfound" and I could really use feedback to help refine my thoughts here to see where they fall on the possibility/probability spectrum.