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Post Post #3950 (ISO) » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:27 pm

Post by bob3141 »

Cant see why town would lie about receiving fruit. What would town hope to acheive by lying.

If JJD hadnt even been remotely patient rather havign a tantrum when he got to l-1. Then his lynch would prob of failed as after i had looked at what happened. That caused JJD to go from 3 votes to 8 in matter of 24 hours. When my intial vote had only been there to see who would try and push a jjd lynch as i had suspicions about garmr push on him. He had already hammered himself when i came to unvote
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Post Post #3951 (ISO) » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:31 pm

Post by bob3141 »

Raw date for vote data i collected. shows every new vote with its post number
for day 1
0th

gobble/roster (5): Elements, Gamma Emerald, Kop, davesaz, profii
Billy Pilgrim - (2): Aaron , Hopkirk
Elements - (2): Aaron, bob3141
Judge Joesph Dredd (2): Hectic, roosterfoster
Hopkirk (2): Cliff Booth, Rick Dalton
Carcalilly - (1): Sharon Tate
davesaz - (1): EeveeLution Army
Hectic - (1): Judge Joseph Dredd
Skellen - (1): Tchill13
YouAreGreat - (1): Garmr


11th

Cliff (4) - dave (1065), Hopkirk(1071), Elementis (1075) , gamma (1090),
Garmr- dave (956)
Dave - hectic (1002)
Tchill - billy (947)
gobble/roster(5):, Kop,, profii ,jjd (961) , element (992)
Billy Pilgrim - (2): texcat,
Elements - (2): Aaron,cliff (918) , hectic (987), Hopkirk (1059) ,Cliff (1086)
Judge Joesph Dredd (2):, gooble
Hopkirk (2): , Rick Dalton , garmr (1008) , Cliff (1082)
Carcalilly - (1): Alonzo
davesaz - (1): EeveeLution Army
Hectic - (1): Judge Joseph Dredd
Skellen - (1): Tchill13
YouAreGreat - (1):
Kop- bob (1022)

12th


Cliff (7) - dave (1065), Hopkirk(1071), Elementis (1075) , gamma (1090), billy (1092), Carc (1097), Hectic (1142),
Garmr-
Dave -
Eve -
Tchill -
gobble/roster (5):,, Kop,, profii ,jjd (961) , Hectic (1133)
Billy Pilgrim - (2): texcat, Hopkirk
Elements - (2): Skellen, bob3141, , , ,Cliff (1086), titus (1168), RD (1169)
Judge Joesph Dredd (2):, roosterfoster
Hopkirk (2): , Rick Dalton , garmr (1008) ,
Carcalilly - (1): Sharon Tate
davesaz - (1): EeveeLution Army
Hectic - (1): Judge Joseph Dredd
Skellen - (1): Tchill13
texcat(YrG)- (1):
Kop- bob (1022)

Unvote -alonzo (1101)

13th

Cliff - dave (1065), Hopkirk(1071), Elementis (1075) , gamma (1090), billy (1092), Carc (1097), Hectic (1142), tchill (1210)
Garmr-
Dave -
Eve -
Tchill - Garmr (1297)
gobble/roster (5):,, Kop,, profii ,jjd (961) , Hectic (1133)
Billy Pilgrim - (2): texcat , Hopkirk
Elements - (2): Skellen, bob3141, , , ,Cliff (1086), titus (1168), RD (1169), alonzo (1329)
Judge Joesph Dredd (2):, roosterfoster
Hopkirk (2): , Rick Dalton , garmr (1008) ,
Carcalilly - (1): Sharon Tate, dave (1234)
davesaz - (1): EeveeLution Army
Hectic - (1): Profii (1328)
Skellen - (1): Tchill13
texcat(YrG)- (1):
Kop- bob (1022)


Unvote -alonzo (1101), JJD (1222), Dave (1248), Tchill (1272)


14th

Cliff (5)- dave (1065), Hopkirk(1071), Elementis (1075) , gamma (1090), billy (1092), Carc (1097), Hectic (1142), tchill (1210)
Garmr-
Dave -
Eve -
Tchill (1) - Garmr (1297)
gobble/roster (0):,,,, ,jjd (961) , Hectic (1133)
Billy Pilgrim - (2): texcat , , kop (1353)
Elements - (6): Aaron ,Cliff (1086), titus (1168), RD (1169), alonzo (1329),
Judge Joesph Dredd (1):, gobble
Hopkirk (0): , , garmr (1008) ,
Carcalilly - (0):, dave (1234)
davesaz - (1): EeveeLution Army
Hectic - (1): Profii (1328)
Skellen - (1):
texcat(YrG)- (1):
Kop- bob (1022)


Unvote -, JJD (1222), Dave (1248), Tchill (1272)


15th

Cliff (5)- , Elementis (1075) , gamma (1090), billy (1092), Carc (1097), Hectic (1142),
Garmr-
Dave -
Eve -
Tchill - Garmr (1297)
gobble/roster (0):, ,
Billy Pilgrim - (2): texcat , , kop (1353)
Elements - (2): Aaron ,Cliff (1086), titus (1168), RD (1169), alonzo (1329), Hopkirk (1401)
Judge Joesph Dredd (2):, gobble
Hopkirk (2): , , ,
Carcalilly - (1):,
davesaz - (1): EeveeLution Army
Hectic - (1): Profii (1328)
Skellen - (1):
texcat(YrG)- (1):
Kop- bob (1022)
Rick - gamma (1455), elementis (1456)


Unvote -, JJD (1222), Dave (1248), Tchill (1272)

16th

Cliff (5)- , , , billy (1092), Carc (1097), Hectic (1142), gamma (1623)
Garmr-
Dave -
Eve -
Tchill - Garmr (1297)
gobble/roster (0):, ,
Billy Pilgrim - (2): texcat , , kop (1353)
Elements - (2): Aaron ,Cliff (1086), titus (1168), RD (1169), alonzo (1329), Hopkirk (1401) , rick (1479)
Judge Joesph Dredd (2):, gobble
Hopkirk (2): , , ,
Carcalilly - (1):,
davesaz - (1): EeveeLution Army
Hectic - (1): Profii (1328)
Skellen - (1):
texcat(YrG)- (1):
Kop- bob (1022)
Rick - gamma (1455), elementis (1456) , aaron (1465)

17th

Cliff (5)- , , ,, Carc (1097), Hectic (1142), gamma (1623) , elemnt (1671),
Garmr-
Dave -
Eve -
Tchill - Garmr (1297) , billy(1692), Hopkirk (1698)
gobble/roster (0):, ,
Billy Pilgrim - (2): texcat , , kop (1353),
Elements - (2): ,Cliff (1086), titus (1168), RD (1169), alonzo (1329), , rick (1479), garmr (1674) ,
Judge Joesph Dredd (2):, gobble
Hopkirk (2): , , ,
Carcalilly - (1):,
davesaz - (1): EeveeLution Army
Hectic - (1): Profii (1328)
Skellen - (1):
texcat(YrG)- (1):
Kop- bob (1022)
Rick - , elementis (1456) , aaron (1465)

18th

Cliff (5)- , , ,, Carc (1097), Hectic (1142),) , element (1671), gobble (1729), tchill (1756) , titus (1773)
Garmr-
Dave -
Eve -
Tchill - Garmr (1297) , billy(1692), Hopkirk (1698) , garmr (1733) ,Tchil (1742) , bob (1748), elemtis (1752) , gamma (1805)
gobble/roster (0):, ,
Billy Pilgrim - (2): texcat , , kop (1353),
Elements - (2): ,Cliff (1086), titus (1168), RD (1169), alonzo (1329), , rick (1479), garmr (1674) , gamma (1708), aaron (1717) , tchill (1738) , profilli (1747), tchill ( 1808) , eve (1869), bob (1876), carc (1885) , JJD (1940) , Proffii (1954)
Judge Joesph Dredd (2):,
Hopkirk (2): , , ,
Carcalilly - (1):,
davesaz - (1): EeveeLution Army
Hectic - (1): Profii (1328)
Skellen - (1):
texcat(YrG)- (1):
Kop- bob (1022)
Rick - , elementis (1456) ,
Aaron - JJD (1734) , tchill (1759) , elemtis (1767) , kop (1768), proffii (1776), Hopkirk (1778)

No voye - proffii (1749) , elemtis (1892)

19th

Cliff (5)- , , ,, Hectic (1142),) ,, gobble (1729),) , titus (1773)
Garmr-
Dave -
Eve -
Tchill - , billy(1692), , garmr (1733) ,, , gamma (1805)
gobble/roster (0):, ,
Billy Pilgrim - (2): texcat , , kop (1353),
Elements - (2): ,Cliff (1086),,, alonzo (1329), , rick (1479), , aaron (1717) , tchill (1738) , profilli (1747), tchill ( 1808) , eve (1869), bob (1876), carc (1885) , JJD (1940) , Proffii (1944) , elemtes (1945)

Aaron - , kop (1768), , Hopkirk (1778)

No voye - proffii (1749) , elemtis (1892)

Lynch one

Elements - (11): Cliff Booth, Rick Dalton, Sharon Tate, AaronFrost, Tchill13, EeveeLution Army, bob3141, Carcalilly, Judge Joseph Dredd, profii, Elements
Cliff Booth (3): Hectic, gobbledygook, Titus
Tchill13 - (3): Billy Pilgrim, Garmr, Gamma Emerald
AaronFrost (2): Kop, Hopkirk
Billy Pilgrim - (1): YouAreGreat

Not Voting: davesaz
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Post Post #3952 (ISO) » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:35 pm

Post by bob3141 »

rooster first wagon

10th gobble/roster (5): t, t, Kop, t, profii (proffii is either 3rd party or town)

iwith 2 wagons at 5 for the traitor with 6 different players.

If scum didnt know who teh traitor was there is high chance kop is scum. With a purely statistic analysis
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Post Post #3953 (ISO) » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:38 pm

Post by bob3141 »

I noticed that garmr avoided teh day oen lynch even though he earlier voted element aswell as he seems oddly miss voting for cliff. Concidering how much his vote moved around

Plus he was the original one to push jjd after teh traitor poped.

My current list for scum is cliff, garmr, kop and i think last oen is titus
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Post Post #3954 (ISO) » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:38 pm

Post by bob3141 »

so they are teh 4 i think are scum. will be interesting to find how close i am today when teh games over
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Post Post #3955 (ISO) » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:39 pm

Post by profii »

In post 3940, bob3141 wrote:end of day vote counts with t= town. T = traitor. I abreviated bob to b as i know im town as im using it for my analysis.

Elements - (11): Cliff Booth, Rick Dalton, t, AaronFrost, t, EeveeLution Army, b, t, t, profii, t
Cliff Booth (3): Hectic, T, Titus
Tchill13 - (3): Billy Pilgrim, Garmr, t
AaronFrost (2): Kop, Hopkirk
Billy Pilgrim - (1): YouAreGreat

Alonzo - (10): - b, Garmr, profii, t, AaronFrost, Titus, Billy Pilgrim, T,
davesaz
, Cliff Booth
EeveeLution Army - (3): - Rick Dalton, Hopkirk, texcat
Hopkirk - (2): - t, t
Judge Joesph Dread - (1): - Carcalilly
Tchill13 - (1): - Hectic
Titus - (1): - EeveeLution Army

Not Voting: Kop

Judge Joseph Dredd - (9): Garmr, Hopkirk, b, t, Cliff Booth, Billy Pilgrim, AaronFrost, texcat, t
Garmr - (1): Titus
Just for completion.
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Post Post #3956 (ISO) » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:39 pm

Post by bob3141 »

will collect teh data for day 2 latter today.
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Post Post #3957 (ISO) » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:41 pm

Post by bob3141 »

day oen interestign vote counts if 2 on same date and player. It means the later has confirmed town repalced with t and my vote is maked as t(b)

10th gobble/roster (5): t, t, Kop, davesaz, profii
12th Cliff (7) - dave (1065), Hopkirk(1071), Elementis (1075) , gamma (1090), billy (1092), Carc (1097), Hectic (1142),

12thCliff (7) - dave (1065), Hopkirk(1071), t (1075) , t (1090), billy (1092), t (1097), Hectic (1142),

13th Cliff (7)- , Hopkirk(1071), Elementis (1075) , gamma (1090), billy (1092), Carc (1097), Hectic (1142), tchill (1210)
13th Cliff - , Hopkirk(1071), t (1075) , t (1090), billy (1092), t (1097), Hectic (1142), t(1210)

13th Elements - (5): Aaron, ,Cliff (1086), titus (1168), RD (1169), t (1329)

15th Cliff (3)- , billy (1092), Carc (1097), Hectic (1142),
15th Elements - (6): Aaron ,Cliff (1086), titus (1168), RD (1169), t(a) (1329), Hopkirk (1401)
16th Elements - (5):,Cliff (1086), titus (1168), alonzo (1329), Hopkirk (1401) , rick (1479)
17th Elements - (5): ,Cliff (1086), titus (1168), alonzo (1329), , rick (1479), garmr (1674) ,
18th tchill -Tchill - , billy(1692), Hopkirk (1698) , garmr (1733) , , bob (1748), elemtis (1752) , gamma (1805)
18th Tchill - , billy(1692), Hopkirk (1698) , garmr (1733) , , t(b) (1748), t , t
19th cliff (3) Hectic (1142),) ,, s(t) (1729),) , titus (1773)

Elements - (11): Cliff Booth, Rick Dalton, t, AaronFrost, t, EeveeLution Army, t(b), t, t, profii, t
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Post Post #3958 (ISO) » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:41 pm

Post by profii »

In post 3952, bob3141 wrote:rooster first wagon

10th gobble/roster (5): t, t, Kop, t, profii (proffii is either 3rd party or town)

iwith 2 wagons at 5 for the traitor with 6 different players.

If scum didnt know who teh traitor was there is high chance kop is scum. With a purely statistic analysis
I can actually comment on this now, dont think I've said this thus far - roosterfoster was posting in the hood thread, but not in the game thread, so I voted for him but didnt give a solid reason, as I felt this was as good a reason as any on day 1 to actually vote. But I didn't really want to reveal that so early and end up someone going 'you need to explain' and backing myself into claim corner.
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Post Post #3959 (ISO) » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:48 pm

Post by bob3141 »

18th Tchill - , billy(1692), Hopkirk (1698) , garmr (1733) , , t(b) (1748), t , t

we have these votes on tchill on the 18th

we have billy, hopk and garmr. Statisticly one of these must be scum 2/3 of the time
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Post Post #3960 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:20 am

Post by profii »

In post 3949, bob3141 wrote:
In post 3674, Judge Joseph Dredd wrote:I am. I need you to confirm what message you received so I know you're not just saying you did.
In post 3673, Cliff Booth wrote:why is it a "'messenger' of sorts" and not a role title? did you specifically target me for the message or was the target chosen at random.
it feels like you're intentionally hiding something
In post 3675, Judge Joseph Dredd wrote:Let me try again: Did you receive something or did you not receive anything on N1?
In post 3676, Judge Joseph Dredd wrote:Failing to answer probably means scum have a Tracker/Watcher who saw me visit you but didn't know what kind of action I performed. I can't think of any other scenario where you would know I visited you but didn't receive the gift.
In post 3677, Cliff Booth wrote:I did receive a message
In post 3678, Judge Joseph Dredd wrote:What .. was .. it?
In post 3679, Cliff Booth wrote:A lovely basket of fruit
In post 3680, Judge Joseph Dredd wrote:Are you sure? Are you absolutely certain that you received FRUIT (and not -say- chocolate)?
In post 3681, Cliff Booth wrote:It was fruit
JJD = Town + Disloyal + Simple

Billy is claiming Town Loyal FV, that also received a fruit on N1

JJD is claiming to have attempted to have sent the fruit, so it seems improbable that another FV is here AND they targetted CB successfully.

This means Cliff is either disloyal to JJD (Scum) or Simple to JJD (not a FV and therefore a liar)

Given the somewhat awkward exchange, I dont think Cliff really received a fruit and guessed but I think Scum were happy to trade a cop for whatever cliff is.

Consider me voting for cliff but I am going to let everyone have a say before we rush into yet another lynch
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Post Post #3961 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:30 am

Post by profii »

I also have my mind on Billy, but we can deal with him once we have talked about Cliff.
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Post Post #3962 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:41 am

Post by bob3141 »

Proffi it means that to JJD cliff is a vanilla goon

As the action would have only goes through if cliff was both scum and a vanilla role. So cliff can only be a scum goon
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Post Post #3963 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:41 am

Post by bob3141 »

if cliff was pr scum or vt. JJD action would of failed for both
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Post Post #3964 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:47 am

Post by profii »

that or a liar.
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Post Post #3965 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:52 am

Post by bob3141 »

readign trhought it all and the follwing post from JJD

Its looks genuine. With lying happening when cliff trys to row back from receiving fruit.
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Post Post #3966 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:53 am

Post by Titus »

In post 3939, bob3141 wrote:VOTE: Cliff

Which also asks the question how billy got fruit if cliff couldnt vend it. Although there is a small possibility its scum gambit with billy. Most likely scum has fruit vendor and that it simply isnt cliff that sent it
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Post Post #3967 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:55 am

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this will probably get me lynched but I think Cliff is town and was making a gamble. He looked like he somewhat was regretting his actions around the end f the day. If he was scum I would expect a bit more of happy tone when he lynched JJD but all I could see was regret.
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Post Post #3968 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:57 am

Post by Titus »

In post 3953, bob3141 wrote:My current list for scum is cliff, garmr, kop and i think last oen is titus
Billy is very likely if Cliff is scum (likely).
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Post Post #3969 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:02 am

Post by AaronFrost »

In post 3967, Garmr wrote:this will probably get me lynched but I think Cliff is town and was making a gamble. He looked like he somewhat was regretting his actions around the end f the day. If he was scum I would expect a bit more of happy tone when he lynched JJD but all I could see was regret.
This actually makes him scummier for me since it felt like a last ditch effort to say "whoops I was wrong I screwed up" when he knew JJD was gonna flip town.
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Post Post #3970 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:07 am

Post by Garmr »

In post 3969, AaronFrost wrote:
In post 3967, Garmr wrote:this will probably get me lynched but I think Cliff is town and was making a gamble. He looked like he somewhat was regretting his actions around the end f the day. If he was scum I would expect a bit more of happy tone when he lynched JJD but all I could see was regret.
This actually makes him scummier for me since it felt like a last ditch effort to say "whoops I was wrong I screwed up" when he knew JJD was gonna flip town.
Yeah I got the impression he thought he was going to flip town but didn't want himself lynched. If it was scum trading I would expect a more smug response not a Oh fuck moment.
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Post Post #3971 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:18 am

Post by AaronFrost »

In post 3970, Garmr wrote:
In post 3969, AaronFrost wrote:
In post 3967, Garmr wrote:this will probably get me lynched but I think Cliff is town and was making a gamble. He looked like he somewhat was regretting his actions around the end f the day. If he was scum I would expect a bit more of happy tone when he lynched JJD but all I could see was regret.
This actually makes him scummier for me since it felt like a last ditch effort to say "whoops I was wrong I screwed up" when he knew JJD was gonna flip town.
Yeah I got the impression he thought he was going to flip town but didn't want himself lynched. If it was scum trading I would expect a more smug response not a Oh fuck moment.
And if he's scum, he knows he's gonna flip town. It really felt like a last-ditch effort to cover his own ass when the flip happened.
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Billy Pilgrim
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2418
Joined: July 24, 2019

Post Post #3972 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:53 am

Post by Billy Pilgrim »

In post 3960, profii wrote:
In post 3949, bob3141 wrote:
In post 3674, Judge Joseph Dredd wrote:I am. I need you to confirm what message you received so I know you're not just saying you did.
In post 3673, Cliff Booth wrote:why is it a "'messenger' of sorts" and not a role title? did you specifically target me for the message or was the target chosen at random.
it feels like you're intentionally hiding something
In post 3675, Judge Joseph Dredd wrote:Let me try again: Did you receive something or did you not receive anything on N1?
In post 3676, Judge Joseph Dredd wrote:Failing to answer probably means scum have a Tracker/Watcher who saw me visit you but didn't know what kind of action I performed. I can't think of any other scenario where you would know I visited you but didn't receive the gift.
In post 3677, Cliff Booth wrote:I did receive a message
In post 3678, Judge Joseph Dredd wrote:What .. was .. it?
In post 3679, Cliff Booth wrote:A lovely basket of fruit
In post 3680, Judge Joseph Dredd wrote:Are you sure? Are you absolutely certain that you received FRUIT (and not -say- chocolate)?
In post 3681, Cliff Booth wrote:It was fruit
JJD = Town + Disloyal + Simple

Billy is claiming Town Loyal FV, that also received a fruit on N1

JJD is claiming to have attempted to have sent the fruit, so it seems improbable that another FV is here AND they targetted CB successfully.

This means Cliff is either disloyal to JJD (Scum) or Simple to JJD (not a FV and therefore a liar)

Given the somewhat awkward exchange, I dont think Cliff really received a fruit and guessed but I think Scum were happy to trade a cop for whatever cliff is.

Consider me voting for cliff but I am going to let everyone have a say before we rush into yet another lynch
I'm not claiming fruit vendor. I hard claimed VT on D2 when JJD was talking about having the nea check someone. I claimed receiving fruit on N2.

I think we have to lynch Cliff here because of the claim of fruit even though I think he may flip green because of the way he started talking at EoD1. I think the risk that hes caught out here means we need to lynch. I think theres three possibilities: 1) Cliff is a loyal fruit vendor but lied about sending fruit to JJD and lied about receiving it; 2) Cliff is a scum fruit vendor that lied about receiving fruit from JJD but not about sending it; this may explain why he lied about receiving it since hes not simple (and if he had JJD's exact role it would explain why JJD didnt receive it but I did; 3) hes a loyal fruit vendor who got RB'd on N1 - if this is the case I feel like it has to be a scum RB since no one claimed it when we were talking about it.

The only thing that explains his lie is 2 and there hes scum so VOTE: Cliff
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Billy Pilgrim
Billy Pilgrim
Mafia Scum
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Billy Pilgrim
Mafia Scum
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Posts: 2418
Joined: July 24, 2019

Post Post #3973 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:55 am

Post by Billy Pilgrim »

Sorry JJD. I think I got used as a pawn in your mislynch.
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profii
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Jack of All Trades
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Post Post #3974 (ISO) » Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:10 am

Post by profii »

Billy - I meant Cliff there... whoops, fingers typed faster than brain was going :lol:

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